A's Trade Harden to the Cubs for a Weak Return
I’m not being a bitter Sox’ fan, but I smell trouble. My feeling is that Harden’s dead arm is a little worse than dead. In his last start against the Sox on Sunday, he didn’t break 95 on the gun and he had a lot of trouble with his control. Combine that with his start prior to that, and you could have an injured pitcher on your hands.
about 1 year ago
jeeves
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A's nation Going ape over this one
Most of them are pissed that Gaudin got away when many felt Harden should have gotten a return that shitty all on his own injured self.
Seriously though, what are the chances that Beane is this dumb? I have a feeling something is wrong with Harden and the Cubs aren’t getting what they think.
by madvillian on Jul 8, 2008 6:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
something must be wrong with harden
otherwise the cubs robbed the A’s blind
btw, here’s the BBTF thread
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on Jul 8, 2008 6:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm confused. is rich harden supposed to break 95 on the gun?
by larry on Jul 8, 2008 6:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
He cans and does
Granted it isn’t the largest set of data, but it’s something I was keeping my eye on during the game after the reports of his “dead arm”
-Jeeves Life in the Cell
by jeeves on Jul 8, 2008 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unbelievable, Hendry does it again...
The is like the Aramis Ramirez trade all over again.
The only good player that the A’s get is Gallagher. Murton was a worse prospect than Sweeney and Eric Patterson is basically his brother all over again.
Ridiculous.
by SSH2005 on Jul 8, 2008 6:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
it is an odd deal.
From the A’s point of view, Gallagher was key to the deal. Beane said the A’s have been following Gallagher’s progress since he joined the pro ranks. He is scheduled to start for the A’s on Friday.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2008/07/08/SPFE11LLCS.DTL
by larry on Jul 8, 2008 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Gallagher a lot...
but Murton is an aging prospect and he doesn’t have much pop for a weak defensive LF’er. I also think that Eric Patterson is destined for failure just like his brother.
by SSH2005 on Jul 8, 2008 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, you're completely wrong about Murton being weak in LF.
2005-2007 the fielding bible has him at 21, and ‘05 and ‘07 were only partial seasons for him. And THT’s RZR has him at .904, .905, .917 in LF from 06-08. Couple that with the fact that after an OPS of 105 through 800+ABs through age 26 (well, really, age 25 because hes only gotten 40 ABs this year) and Murton looks like a possible average to above-average corner OF the next few years, assuming he follows the general age pattern for hitters; that is, peak years between 27-30.
by parkermo on Jul 9, 2008 4:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This trade better be because Harden's health is in question...
Otherwise, it looks like a steal. Gaudin as a throw-in is ridiculous.
by SSH2005 on Jul 8, 2008 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, i don't get the gaudin inclusion.
harden’s health is in question at all times. which is why i don’t think he rates a great haul like the screaming As fans think, despite his obvious gifts.
by larry on Jul 8, 2008 6:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, the reason the deal looks good even with Harden's health concerns to me is...
the Gaudin inclusion and also the fact that if Harden actually does stay healthy, the Cubs have a measly $7 million dollar option on him for next season.
by SSH2005 on Jul 8, 2008 6:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But I guess if Harden hits the D.L. for an extended stay this season...
The deal looks like crap for the Cubs.
by SSH2005 on Jul 8, 2008 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
if you want to boil the deal down a bit
the As basically traded risk for certainty. gallagher is what he is. so is murton. i’d say patterson probably is, too. all these guys are average-ish guys. gallagher mid rotation, murton a platoon piece, patterson probably can stick at 2B and be relatively decent. nothing really earth-shattering. i guess you get some upside potential with donaldson.
harden is a risk right now. his arm could snap at any time. that option looks nice but, based upon what he’s done in the past few seasons, it’s actually probably adequately priced for what you’d project him to do. obviously if harden stays healthy it’s a great deal. but that will be more luck than anything. gaudin, well, i dont’ get that.
at any rate, looks like a good deal for the cubs because i’d say they pretty much gave up somewhat extraneous parts to get a top pitcher. and i’m wondering what beane is thinking. we’ll see how it pans out.
by larry on Jul 8, 2008 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
although as you know a starting pitcher that projects to an ERA+ of 100 at the league minimum salary is a lot more valuable than an average pitcher.
by bhoov on Jul 8, 2008 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
sure
i just wonder whether he can do that. obviously beane thinks he can. i know pecota doesn’t like him much, not sure about other projection systems or scouts. i liked him when i saw him pitch and the minor league numbers are obviously fine enough. i sort of assume in my analysis that he’ll be a mid rotation guy. i think he’ll also benefit from that ballpark.
by larry on Jul 8, 2008 7:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hendry doing over Littlefield is fine
Hendry doing over Beane? Seems unlikely.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 6:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just looked up Gallagher's
minor league stats. He’s a lot better than I thought. His present ERA+ of 101 seems maintainable given his minor league track record. He seems like a good candidate to be a minumum salaried #3 starter for a while. Those are pretty valuable properties. Still it does seem like a small return.
Of course harden has only pitched 149 innings the last 2.5 years. He’s only started more than 19 games once in his career, and he’s at 13 right now. I would probably take the under on him making 8 starts the rest of this year.
by bhoov on Jul 8, 2008 6:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
16 Harden starts + 16 replacement level starts is less than, equal to, or greater than Gallagher?
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scroll down to the avg fastball velo
He’s 26 and he lost more than a mph in velocity? He’s supposed to gain slightly until 29.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 6:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i think harden maybe a bit sui generis
considering the stop/starts due to injury. it’s not particularly unusual for a guy to come back after injury and not be able to throw as fast as he did. outside of just the physiological issues they may have changed his mechanics/approach, as well. at any rate, my point was more to the fact that his velocity in his start against the sox didn’t seem to be markedly different than it was the rest of this season, which i consider to be the more appropriate data point for comparison.
by larry on Jul 8, 2008 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's a pretty good point, actually
a more thorough investigation is probably necessary to really make any kind of determination. but even still, pitchers don’t suddenly stop being injury-prone, at least as far as I know. i emailed Will about something off topic and he replied that he was swamped with the Harden deal, so I’m guessing we’ll get something good tomorrow.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe they do if they change their mechanics?
by reardenmettle on Jul 9, 2008 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
rarely.
there are a lot of issues with harden. one issue is that this guy has had significant injury problems to both shoulder and elbow but (iirc) has never had surgery. now, one might think, isn’t it good that he hasn’t had surgery? well, sure. but you can often get these problems “fixed”, if only for a few years, with surgery. harden hasn’t ever been fixed. which leads to the second issue: when you’ve had issues in the past with these things, especially with strains to ligaments like the UCL in the elbow, you’re more likely to do it again.
but, getting back to the trade, the cubs know all this and took a very nice calculated risk.
by larry on Jul 9, 2008 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
like larry said, once the damage has been done, it's all a matter of
when. changing mechanics, as will has pointed out to me, can itself cause new injuries because of the shift in muscle/tendon usage patterns. suddenly, previously unstressed muscles are getting stress and they may or may not be ready to handle that. in addition, taking stress off the major points of injury like the shoulder and elbow are just not that feasible for an act like overhand pitching.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 9, 2008 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ESPN's Buster Olney on how the trade went down...
Anatomy Of The DealCubs general manager Jim Hendry checked in from time to time throughout June with Oakland general manager Billy Beane about the availability of Rich Harden, and their conversations traveled down the same path: Yes, Harden was available, but only at the right price, and that price would include right-handed pitcher Sean Gallagher. And Hendry indicated, repeatedly, that Gallagher wasn’t available.
On Sunday evening - the same night when word broke that the Brewers had worked out a deal for CC Sabathia - Hendry indicated to Beane for the first time that he would make Gallagher available in a Harden deal, but it would create a problem: If Gallagher was traded, the Cubs wouldn’t have the kind of depth they needed to deal with an injury.
“Let me call you back,” Beane said.
Beane had an idea. He could fill Hendry’s need for depth by adding veteran swingman Chad Gaudin in the trade. He phoned Hendry back on Monday night with the suggestion. “That could work,” Hendry said, and the two general managers began piecing together other parts of the trade. Beane called Hendry with a detail of the trade very late on Monday night, California time, figuring the call would switch over to voice mail on Hendry’s cell phone because it was so late.
But Hendry answered the phone, wide awake. “Jim, what are doing awake?” Beane asked.
“I’m just laying here on my couch,” Hendry said.
Some 15 hours later, the trade was finished. Oakland got Gallagher, a pitching prospect with a more stable medical history than Harden, and the Cubs got a high-risk, high-reward talent in Harden.
—Buster Olney
by SSH2005 on Jul 9, 2008 12:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
"the Cubs wouldn't have the kind of depth they needed to deal with an injury"
-Zambrano
-Lilly
-Marshall
-Dempster
-Marquis
-Leiber
and Hill back down on the farm. May not be Grand Canyon deep, but seems like plenty of starting pitching to me.
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 9, 2008 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hill has Blassitis
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 9, 2008 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Marquis sucks
Dempster is decent I guess. In order of personal preference, it would have looked like
1)Zambrano
2)Gallagher
3)Dempster
4)Marshall
and then the rest are scrap heap.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 9, 2008 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
christina thinks the trade sucks
I’m as big a Billy Beane fan as any person who prefers to stop short of going all fanboy or fangirl over the man—that’s for real genius, not canny baseball executives—but it’s really, really hard to see what it is that the A’s got that would compel them to accept this offer, as opposed to treat it as a conversational cul-de-sac to head back out of and see whether a real deal might be struck. Why make a deal with the Cubs, who just don’t have all that much to offer? As Kevin Goldstein noted in January, theirs isn’t a great farm system, and even if you’re landing three of their eight best pre-season prospects, that’s relative. Put it this way—who is the best player that the A’s received in the deal? We’ll try and answer that in a second, but there’s a second question that has to be asked in conjunction with the first: How likely is the best player received in the deal to have a significant role with the club in 2010 (when Harden would have been a free agent signed by somebody else) or 2011 (when Gaudin would have expended his salary arbitration seasons and potentially also left for a team and contract of his choosing)?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7774
by larry on Jul 9, 2008 8:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
but others like it.
dave cameron. but he oddly does not mention gaudin in his analysis.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/harden-versus-gallagher/
I’m not a huge Sean Gallagher fan, as my rather conservative projection above shows, and after running through all this, but if I was the A’s, I still might have considered swapping Harden for Gallagher straight up. The fact that they got Murton, Patterson, and Donaldson as sweetner is just a bonus.
This deal is a win for the A’s, even if it doesn’t necessarily seem like it. They don’t take much away from their 2009 team while making the 2010 to 2013 squads potentially a lot better.
by larry on Jul 9, 2008 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Community Fantasy Advice
Would you trade Rich Harden for John Danks right now?
I’m skeptical that Harden will finish out the year without getting injured, and I’d also like to win this league without tarnishing it by owning any Cubs. However, Danks had a rough second half last year, and while I don’t expect any where near the collapse last year, there’s obviously question marks regarding how long he can continue putting up these kind of numbers.
I’m basically ensured first place for the season, so this move is eyed more towards September than July.
So,all that said, is Danks too little for Harden at this point (considering I’m in a league with Cubs fans)?
by chrome on Jul 9, 2008 1:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
oh, Fantasy
I nearly had a heart attack there…
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on Jul 9, 2008 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If this was real life, I'd only trade Danks
for Erstad.
by chrome on Jul 9, 2008 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It depends on where you are in the standings
Harden is high risk high reward. If you need to make a move up the leaderboard, that’s the way I would go. Danks may actually be a good sell high candidate because the Sox will be sure to keep his IP at about no more than 170 IP or so. Injury candidates present themselves when young pitchers throw more than 40+ IP than they’ve ever thrown before, iirc. He’s already at 107, fwiw.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 9, 2008 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You really think the Sox are going to limit
him to 70 innings the second half of the year, despite being in the thick of a divisional race?
by chrome on Jul 9, 2008 10:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the phrase "no fucking way" comes to mind.
especially if playoffs occur.
one other problem with colin’s thinking is that danks threw, iirc, 155 as a 20 year old. and this doesn’t count winter/fall ball (no idea if danks attended) or that danks was pretty much kept out of all of september last year but he was still throwing. you could arguably add, i don’t know, another 20+ IP to his total last yera for that.
"What'cha gonna do brother when Ozunamania runs wild on you?"
by larry on Jul 10, 2008 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
nuanced approach, I like it
next time, feel free to tell us how you really feel. You’re among friends (and fiends), larry.
by rhythm on Jul 11, 2008 12:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs




















