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The remains of the season: Chicago White Sox -- The Hardball Times

Who wins the AL Central?

I think Baseball Prospectus' ELO-adjusted playoff odds report puts the White Sox postseason chances in the most accurate perspective. Elo rating was invented for use in chess, but Nate Silver has adopted them (for) baseball purposes. Because the ratings are derived from who you beat and when, they do a great job of capturing a teams hot and cold streaks, as well as approximating a team's true talent. The ELO-adjusted odds have the Sox as underdogs to the Twins (69 percent to 44 percent), which feels about right, especially given the Twins' recent addition of Francisco Liriano and subtraction of Livan Hernandez along with the uncertainty surrounding the Sox's pitching staff.

Prediction:
The White Sox are on hand to watch the Twins clinch a division crown in the Metrodome the last week of September.

Link 3 months ago Thecheatsmoking_tiny The Cheat Comment 283 comments 0 recs |

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That guy is a fucking moron

I can’t believe THT let him do that write up.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Aug 13, 2008 1:51 AM CDT   0 recs

Just a stubborn fool

Clearly he just doesn’t want to back off of his preseason 82 win prediction.

(+1 for pennies in cargo pants though)

by Trooper on Aug 13, 2008 2:48 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

What a douche

Probably not even a Soxfan.

by Tony82087 on Aug 13, 2008 1:53 AM CDT   0 recs

way way up

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Aug 13, 2008 2:03 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

never trust anyone with 2 first names

sorry cheat!

"term: pussy, user: larry, count: 11

term: pussy, user: all, count: 83" - wiz

by Where Triples Go to Die on Aug 13, 2008 9:02 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I thought it was well done.

Better than the crap on this site.

I wish he was in my fantasy league. id bury that cocksucker- KenWo4Life

by Hawk is God on Aug 13, 2008 2:19 AM CDT   0 recs

seriously though...

twins 2-1 favorites? I wish vegas would give me those odds.

by Trooper on Aug 13, 2008 2:56 AM CDT   0 recs

i could careless

they had the twins third and us 4th before everything this year, the twins really have no bullpen, and as good as gomez is in center tracking balls he and swisher think the cut off man wears knee pads and a mask, they have no DH and a left side of the infield that cant hit 25 homers and doubles if you combine them. Their RISP will hit about .280 and they’ll win 84 games, the sox will have this thing locked up with 6 days to go

by BestKosherPolish on Aug 13, 2008 3:16 AM CDT   0 recs

Sox facing both Gio and Washburn in their next starts...
Gio Gonzalez allowed just one run in five innings to defeat the Rays on Tuesday night.
His first major league win came in his second attempt. Gonzalez struck out five, but he did issue four walks on the night. He was able to limit the damage, though, and lower his ERA to 4.09 after two starts. He’ll face the White Sox, his former team, in his next start.
Jarrod Wasburn allowed four runs – one earned – in seven innings as the Mariners lost to the Angels on Wednesday.
He was only charged with one earned run thanks to a Yuniesky Betancourt error, but he did give up two homers in the contest. Still, he struck out three and didn’t allow a single walk, and allowed just seven hits despite the costly error. He’ll face the White Sox in his next start, assuming he’s still a Mariner.

"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry

by SSH2005 on Aug 13, 2008 7:28 AM CDT   0 recs

oh shit!

i think it would be pretty sweet if ssh's kid and kenwo's kid had offspring together...whether you believe in nature or nurture, it wouldn’t be boring.-larry

by furby2056 on Aug 13, 2008 1:54 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Uh no.

I like it. The White Sox are underdogs again. I mean they have very little chance of competing or going to the playoffs this year.

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Aug 13, 2008 7:48 AM CDT   0 recs

By the way

1 month ago the White Sox were 54-40 1.5 games up on the Twins and 7 up on Detroit and a ELO favorite.
Aug 13th they are 66-52 .5 game up on the Twins, 8.5 up on Detroit and a 69 to 44 underdog.

PECOTA still has them as a 60+ favorite and with the schedule and stat advantages its probably a lot closer to the truth.

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Aug 13, 2008 8:19 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i think the PECOTA odds are the less accurate than the ELO at this point in the season

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Aug 13, 2008 8:31 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Baseball is not chess or Soccer

ELO may be fine if you need to pick the winner of the Sox vs the Twins next game. But you still have to project out. Extended road trips or home stands count. Expected extended production counts. ELO doesn’t do that as well.

You honestly think yesterday the Twins were a 69 to 44 fav?

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Aug 13, 2008 8:49 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

neither does pecota based on assumptions from april.

the atmosphere is just too much for me.

by larry on Aug 13, 2008 8:57 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

No it doesnt but there is still an expected production component

Even if it is not the most accurate right now (example Q rakes!)

Hell the actual stat predictor has the Sox as a 60+ favorite. I don’t think they are really that high, but the point is they should still be a fav at this point.

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Aug 13, 2008 9:03 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

lol point taken and made.

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Aug 13, 2008 9:18 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

For accuracy

the updated odds are 60-51 today, with the wildcard making up the extra 11%

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Aug 13, 2008 1:07 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah, I saw it

and the first two comments are worth reading too

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Aug 13, 2008 1:25 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

As mentioned in the first game thread, U-God reminded me of Preacher...

One of the finest comics ever written/drawn. One of the more endearing characters was a lad who botched a suicide attempt (his father told him he should have put the gun in his mouth, not under his chin), and the resultant surgeries left him with the appropriate nickname of “Arseface”. Don’t know why I thought of him last night, but I did promise to post his pic today. Enjoy!

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 13, 2008 8:14 AM CDT   0 recs

Ahh... Preacher...

Never has another story so artfully blended angels, demons, vampires, lunatic Southern grannies, religious cults, serial killers, wacko wholesale meat barons, the ghost of John Wayne, the FBI, aardvark fucking, and one man’s quest to find God and kick His ass.

What am I forgetting?

by ReservoirDog on Aug 13, 2008 8:35 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I think that's about it. I'm pretty sure I'd hide them from HSA, but maybe not...

which would explain a lot.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 13, 2008 8:44 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You also took me to see Pulp Fiction when I was 10.

(granted, I had a big prepatory speech before we saw it).
Sounds like a story I’d enjoy!

"just realized the superman uni is barely visible but slightly protruding out of his jersey. and i began to slightly protrude out of my pants." - MM

by homesickalien on Aug 13, 2008 10:51 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes, you'd enjoy it. And that would sadden your Uncle WU.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 13, 2008 10:54 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Awww, I miss that little hairy Italian man.

"just realized the superman uni is barely visible but slightly protruding out of his jersey. and i began to slightly protrude out of my pants." - MM

by homesickalien on Aug 13, 2008 11:14 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Btw, Arseface's suicide attempt was a reenactment of Cobain (his idol)

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 13, 2008 11:17 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Do they have graphic novels?

Looks like something I would enjoy

by 815Sox on Aug 13, 2008 9:09 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

yes. see the thread on the right rail.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 13, 2008 9:20 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Suicide Fial

Lisa needs braces ... DENTAL PLAN

by gafferland on Aug 13, 2008 11:53 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Twins claim lefty Alan Embree off waivers; A's pull him back...
According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the A’s pulled Alan Embree back after he was claimed off waivers by the Twins.
Oddly, the Twins let Chad Bradford get past them on waivers, but claimed the 38-year-old Embree and his 5.40 ERA.

Source: San Francisco Chronicle

"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry

by SSH2005 on Aug 13, 2008 8:35 AM CDT   0 recs

I don't think it was. This is the entire blurb from the clickthrough:

Briefly: According to a major-league source, Minnesota claimed left-hander Alan Embree on waivers, but the A’s pulled him off the waiver wire.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 13, 2008 8:53 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

didn't say that, but either it was deleted from the original after SSH posted, or...

you never know.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 13, 2008 9:24 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

ah. the only link provided was to the source, hence my confusion.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 13, 2008 9:27 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i understand now.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 13, 2008 9:29 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Rotoworld must not realize that the last thing in the world that the Twins want...

is a $3.5 million dollar reliever for 2009.

"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry

by SSH2005 on Aug 13, 2008 9:08 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

and a ROOGY, to boot.

the atmosphere is just too much for me.

by larry on Aug 13, 2008 9:11 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I couldnt be around yesterday afternoon

How did you take the BoSox acquiring Bryd SSH?

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Aug 13, 2008 8:51 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

gasoline meet flame.

the atmosphere is just too much for me.

by larry on Aug 13, 2008 8:51 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

lol

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Aug 13, 2008 8:56 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I still would rather have Washburn.

"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry

by SSH2005 on Aug 13, 2008 9:07 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

It's a misleading snippet that Cheat posted

There is much more cogent analysis at the THBT.

The last starts from Floyd, Danks, MB and Javier have been very encouraging. When 3 out of the 4 have arguably their best stuff of the season and dominate with lots of strikeouts and pinpoint command and control, it’s hard to not get excited for what could be going forward.

That said, the news on Liney is very encouraging. Hopefully he can be back and effective within two weeks.

I’ve wrote off Crede for the rest of the season, Uribe has been playing very well though, and perhaps he can go on one of his little Uribe like runs where he posts a 250/300/500 line a month or so. His defense has been excellent.

I’m excited for the last 40 games, even if the Sox don’t pull it off it’s a hell of a good season with the emergence of so much young talent, and it gives hope for the future that really wasn’t there prior to this year.

by madvillian on Aug 13, 2008 8:58 AM CDT   0 recs

so you're saying cheat posted a misleading snippet of his own article?

somehow i think he posted exactly what he thought was the salient part.

the atmosphere is just too much for me.

by larry on Aug 13, 2008 9:03 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

someone hasn't had their coffee this morning...

"term: pussy, user: larry, count: 11

term: pussy, user: all, count: 83" - wiz

by Where Triples Go to Die on Aug 13, 2008 9:07 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Christopher Michaels ≠ The Cheat

Sure they’re contained within the same person, but that doesn’t mean anything.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Aug 13, 2008 9:40 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

lol

"term: pussy, user: larry, count: 11

term: pussy, user: all, count: 83" - wiz

by Where Triples Go to Die on Aug 13, 2008 1:43 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

It was either this or the 2 paragraphs on Poreda

I got the reaction I was looking for ;)

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Aug 13, 2008 1:08 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i'm sure this was posted on the gamethread or something.

but for those who don’t read those:

Guillen said after Tuesday’s 9-0 shellacking of the Royals that Quentin will be out of action once again on Wednesday night.

“Quentin is OK,” Guillen said. “I’m going to give him one more day to make sure he’s fine.”

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080812&content_id=3297046&vkey=news_cws&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws

the atmosphere is just too much for me.

by larry on Aug 13, 2008 9:09 AM CDT   0 recs

clearly, he has been the problem with this offense all year.

we should sit him for the rest of the season…

"term: pussy, user: larry, count: 11

term: pussy, user: all, count: 83" - wiz

by Where Triples Go to Die on Aug 13, 2008 9:14 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Am I the only one who likes the OBP addition and everything

But thinks Q should actually MOVE sometimes????

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Aug 13, 2008 9:20 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes...

if Quentin breaks his hand getting HBP, we are fucked because Swisher would apparently start in LF with Griffey in CF. LOL.

"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry

by SSH2005 on Aug 13, 2008 9:23 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Dammit, I get no Q in person this eve?

No respect. Fer Chrissakes.

"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT

by winningugly on Aug 13, 2008 12:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Sucks to be you, ravioli tosser!

this isn't hard. you live in a port city. and you're a slut. do the math. -larry

by rhythm on Aug 13, 2008 12:49 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

My cousin is driving me to the game

after I meet a buddy for drinks in about 90 minutes. Diamond box, free drinks, and a chauffeur, and I am one lit Dago mix tonight.

And, HSA, I have a full head of hair but none on my back. So there.

Enjoy the the game tonight, gents and ladies. I will.

"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT

by winningugly on Aug 13, 2008 12:52 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Who's ass did you kiss last night?

"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."

by BobbySouthSide on Aug 13, 2008 12:52 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I hope you are meeting my dad for drinks at Miller's Pub to give him my Chelexei shirt.

If not, you can ship it directly to Seattle.

Bring home a winner! Please!

"just realized the superman uni is barely visible but slightly protruding out of his jersey. and i began to slightly protrude out of my pants." - MM

by homesickalien on Aug 13, 2008 1:19 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Just got Goose Gossage's autograph

and a picture with him at our conference! He looks effin’ great. He signed my ticket for tonight’s game. He also said he didn’t choose his hat for Cooperstown (I expressed disappointment he didn’t go in a white Sox). So I love him even more now.

"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT

by winningugly on Aug 13, 2008 1:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Very Cool

Sounds like he even gave you a litte “goose” when you walked away.

"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."

by BobbySouthSide on Aug 13, 2008 1:28 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Damn, forgot the clearly again.

but for you, I feel like I don’t need it anyways.

I hope you make a drunken ass of yourself, with colintj’s bourbon experiment as your guide. Fare thee well, Dago, fare thee well.

this isn't hard. you live in a port city. and you're a slut. do the math. -larry

by rhythm on Aug 13, 2008 1:32 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I think a lot hinges on Linebrink coming back fully effective

If the Sox can hold the fort and Linebrink comes back the way he was early in the year, I think the bullpen will stabilize and we have a shot.

Contreras going down really hurt us.

Coffee is for closers.

by vince_ on Aug 13, 2008 9:20 AM CDT   0 recs

It did

Its funny because we were all ripping on him before… you don’t know what you’ve got till its gone I guess

by 815Sox on Aug 13, 2008 9:21 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

It hurts more because he was looking really good on Saturday.

"I’m gonna rise up, gonna kick a little ass. Gonna kick some ass in the USA. Gonna climb a mountain, gonna sew a flag, gonna fly on an eagle. I’m gonna kick some butt, gonna drive a big truck. I’m gonna rule this world. I’m gonna kick some ass. I’m gonna rise up, gonna kick a little ass. Rock, flag, and eagle!"

by Ozzie Montana on Aug 13, 2008 11:44 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The Tigers season is over already but...
The Detroit Free Press reports that Joel Zumaya’s loss Tuesday night “evidently will be his last appearance for a while” because of “ailments in his upper pitching arm.”
Zumaya allowed two hits and handed out three walks without getting an out Tuesday, and according to manager Jim Leyland he had a medical exam after the game. “I can assure you, I’m not going to have Zumaya for a while, even if everything checks out all right,” Leyland said. “All I know is there is a problem. Joel is not himself. I can see it in his face. I can see it in his demeanor. Right now, I don’t feel comfortable pitching Joel. I’m not talking about because of results. I’m talking about because something is not right. It’s going to be next year until he gets back to 100 percent.”

Source: Detroit Free Press

"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry

by SSH2005 on Aug 13, 2008 9:25 AM CDT   0 recs

Also, how big of a failure was that Sheffield trade?

Link.

It seemed like it was going to be similar to the Thome trade at first. Acquire a big bat to DH for your team and keep the old guy healthy since he won’t be playing the field.

"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry

by SSH2005 on Aug 13, 2008 9:31 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Thome sucks

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Aug 13, 2008 9:35 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

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