The remains of the season: Chicago White Sox -- The Hardball Times
Who wins the AL Central?
I think Baseball Prospectus' ELO-adjusted playoff odds report puts the White Sox postseason chances in the most accurate perspective. Elo rating was invented for use in chess, but Nate Silver has adopted them (for) baseball purposes. Because the ratings are derived from who you beat and when, they do a great job of capturing a teams hot and cold streaks, as well as approximating a team's true talent. The ELO-adjusted odds have the Sox as underdogs to the Twins (69 percent to 44 percent), which feels about right, especially given the Twins' recent addition of Francisco Liriano and subtraction of Livan Hernandez along with the uncertainty surrounding the Sox's pitching staff.
Prediction: The White Sox are on hand to watch the Twins clinch a division crown in the Metrodome the last week of September.
3 months ago
The Cheat
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That guy is a fucking moron
I can’t believe THT let him do that write up.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Aug 13, 2008 1:51 AM CDT 0 recs
Just a stubborn fool
Clearly he just doesn’t want to back off of his preseason 82 win prediction.
(+1 for pennies in cargo pants though)
by Trooper on
Aug 13, 2008 2:48 AM CDT
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i wonder, if we kill 'Christopher Michaels'; do the sox chances of winning go up?
"I know it's pretty baby, but I didn't take it out for air."
by explodingpinwheelsforfunandprofit on Aug 13, 2008 2:00 AM CDT 0 recs
way way up
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Aug 13, 2008 2:03 AM CDT
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never trust anyone with 2 first names
sorry cheat!
"term: pussy, user: larry, count: 11
term: pussy, user: all, count: 83" - wiz
by Where Triples Go to Die on
Aug 13, 2008 9:02 AM CDT
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I thought it was well done.
Better than the crap on this site.
I wish he was in my fantasy league. id bury that cocksucker- KenWo4Life
by Hawk is God on Aug 13, 2008 2:19 AM CDT 0 recs
seriously though...
twins 2-1 favorites? I wish vegas would give me those odds.
by Trooper on Aug 13, 2008 2:56 AM CDT 0 recs
i could careless
they had the twins third and us 4th before everything this year, the twins really have no bullpen, and as good as gomez is in center tracking balls he and swisher think the cut off man wears knee pads and a mask, they have no DH and a left side of the infield that cant hit 25 homers and doubles if you combine them. Their RISP will hit about .280 and they’ll win 84 games, the sox will have this thing locked up with 6 days to go
by BestKosherPolish on Aug 13, 2008 3:16 AM CDT 0 recs
Sox facing both Gio and Washburn in their next starts...
Gio Gonzalez allowed just one run in five innings to defeat the Rays on Tuesday night.
His first major league win came in his second attempt. Gonzalez struck out five, but he did issue four walks on the night. He was able to limit the damage, though, and lower his ERA to 4.09 after two starts. He’ll face the White Sox, his former team, in his next start.
Jarrod Wasburn allowed four runs – one earned – in seven innings as the Mariners lost to the Angels on Wednesday.
He was only charged with one earned run thanks to a Yuniesky Betancourt error, but he did give up two homers in the contest. Still, he struck out three and didn’t allow a single walk, and allowed just seven hits despite the costly error. He’ll face the White Sox in his next start, assuming he’s still a Mariner.
"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry
by SSH2005 on Aug 13, 2008 7:28 AM CDT 0 recs
oh shit!
i think it would be pretty sweet if ssh's kid and kenwo's kid had offspring together...whether you believe in nature or nurture, it wouldn’t be boring.-larry
by furby2056 on
Aug 13, 2008 1:54 PM CDT
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Uh no.
I like it. The White Sox are underdogs again. I mean they have very little chance of competing or going to the playoffs this year.
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
by Tdogg on Aug 13, 2008 7:48 AM CDT 0 recs
By the way
1 month ago the White Sox were 54-40 1.5 games up on the Twins and 7 up on Detroit and a ELO favorite.
Aug 13th they are 66-52 .5 game up on the Twins, 8.5 up on Detroit and a 69 to 44 underdog.
PECOTA still has them as a 60+ favorite and with the schedule and stat advantages its probably a lot closer to the truth.
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
by Tdogg on
Aug 13, 2008 8:19 AM CDT
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i think the PECOTA odds are the less accurate than the ELO at this point in the season
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Aug 13, 2008 8:31 AM CDT
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Baseball is not chess or Soccer
ELO may be fine if you need to pick the winner of the Sox vs the Twins next game. But you still have to project out. Extended road trips or home stands count. Expected extended production counts. ELO doesn’t do that as well.
You honestly think yesterday the Twins were a 69 to 44 fav?
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
by Tdogg on
Aug 13, 2008 8:49 AM CDT
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neither does pecota based on assumptions from april.
the atmosphere is just too much for me.
by larry on
Aug 13, 2008 8:57 AM CDT
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No it doesnt but there is still an expected production component
Even if it is not the most accurate right now (example Q rakes!)
Hell the actual stat predictor has the Sox as a 60+ favorite. I don’t think they are really that high, but the point is they should still be a fav at this point.
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
by Tdogg on
Aug 13, 2008 9:03 AM CDT
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these things were amusing three months ago. they are still amusing. arguing over which is better is crossing quite far over into the nonproductive.
flip a coin between the teams.
the atmosphere is just too much for me.
by larry on
Aug 13, 2008 9:05 AM CDT
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lol point taken and made.
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
by Tdogg on
Aug 13, 2008 9:18 AM CDT
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For accuracy
the updated odds are 60-51 today, with the wildcard making up the extra 11%
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on
Aug 13, 2008 1:07 PM CDT
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Hey Cheat! Did you see the shoutout the Reader gave you?
http://blogs.chicagoreader.com/sports/2008/08/08/blogroll-southsidesoxcom/#comments
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on
Aug 13, 2008 1:18 PM CDT
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yeah, I saw it
and the first two comments are worth reading too
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on
Aug 13, 2008 1:25 PM CDT
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As mentioned in the first game thread, U-God reminded me of Preacher...
One of the finest comics ever written/drawn. One of the more endearing characters was a lad who botched a suicide attempt (his father told him he should have put the gun in his mouth, not under his chin), and the resultant surgeries left him with the appropriate nickname of “Arseface”. Don’t know why I thought of him last night, but I did promise to post his pic today. Enjoy!

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on Aug 13, 2008 8:14 AM CDT 0 recs
Ahh... Preacher...
Never has another story so artfully blended angels, demons, vampires, lunatic Southern grannies, religious cults, serial killers, wacko wholesale meat barons, the ghost of John Wayne, the FBI, aardvark fucking, and one man’s quest to find God and kick His ass.
What am I forgetting?
by ReservoirDog on
Aug 13, 2008 8:35 AM CDT
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I think that's about it. I'm pretty sure I'd hide them from HSA, but maybe not...
which would explain a lot.
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on
Aug 13, 2008 8:44 AM CDT
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You also took me to see Pulp Fiction when I was 10.
(granted, I had a big prepatory speech before we saw it).
Sounds like a story I’d enjoy!
"just realized the superman uni is barely visible but slightly protruding out of his jersey. and i began to slightly protrude out of my pants." - MM
by homesickalien on
Aug 13, 2008 10:51 AM CDT
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Yes, you'd enjoy it. And that would sadden your Uncle WU.
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on
Aug 13, 2008 10:54 AM CDT
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Awww, I miss that little hairy Italian man.
"just realized the superman uni is barely visible but slightly protruding out of his jersey. and i began to slightly protrude out of my pants." - MM
by homesickalien on
Aug 13, 2008 11:14 AM CDT
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Btw, Arseface's suicide attempt was a reenactment of Cobain (his idol)
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on
Aug 13, 2008 11:17 AM CDT
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Do they have graphic novels?
Looks like something I would enjoy
by 815Sox on
Aug 13, 2008 9:09 AM CDT
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yes. see the thread on the right rail.
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on
Aug 13, 2008 9:20 AM CDT
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Twins claim lefty Alan Embree off waivers; A's pull him back...
According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the A’s pulled Alan Embree back after he was claimed off waivers by the Twins.
Oddly, the Twins let Chad Bradford get past them on waivers, but claimed the 38-year-old Embree and his 5.40 ERA.Source: San Francisco Chronicle
"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry
by SSH2005 on Aug 13, 2008 8:35 AM CDT 0 recs
i'm not sure why "oddly" was included in that. do the people who write these follow baseball?
the atmosphere is just too much for me.
by larry on
Aug 13, 2008 8:49 AM CDT
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I don't think it was. This is the entire blurb from the clickthrough:
Briefly: According to a major-league source, Minnesota claimed left-hander Alan Embree on waivers, but the A’s pulled him off the waiver wire.
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on
Aug 13, 2008 8:53 AM CDT
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you're saying ssh edited a rotoworld post? ssh it many things. but i don't think he's that.
the atmosphere is just too much for me.
by larry on
Aug 13, 2008 8:58 AM CDT
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didn't say that, but either it was deleted from the original after SSH posted, or...
you never know.
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on
Aug 13, 2008 9:24 AM CDT
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it's a rotoworld quote. you know, #3 on the list of varieties of ssh posts? the format is pretty obvious.
the atmosphere is just too much for me.
by larry on
Aug 13, 2008 9:25 AM CDT
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ah. the only link provided was to the source, hence my confusion.
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on
Aug 13, 2008 9:27 AM CDT
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Here it is...
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=1788
"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry
by SSH2005 on
Aug 13, 2008 9:28 AM CDT
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i understand now.
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on
Aug 13, 2008 9:29 AM CDT
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Rotoworld must not realize that the last thing in the world that the Twins want...
is a $3.5 million dollar reliever for 2009.
"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry
by SSH2005 on
Aug 13, 2008 9:08 AM CDT
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and a ROOGY, to boot.
the atmosphere is just too much for me.
by larry on
Aug 13, 2008 9:11 AM CDT
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I couldnt be around yesterday afternoon
How did you take the BoSox acquiring Bryd SSH?
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
by Tdogg on
Aug 13, 2008 8:51 AM CDT
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gasoline meet flame.
the atmosphere is just too much for me.
by larry on
Aug 13, 2008 8:51 AM CDT
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lol
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
by Tdogg on
Aug 13, 2008 8:56 AM CDT
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I still would rather have Washburn.
"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry
by SSH2005 on
Aug 13, 2008 9:07 AM CDT
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It's a misleading snippet that Cheat posted
There is much more cogent analysis at the THBT.
The last starts from Floyd, Danks, MB and Javier have been very encouraging. When 3 out of the 4 have arguably their best stuff of the season and dominate with lots of strikeouts and pinpoint command and control, it’s hard to not get excited for what could be going forward.
That said, the news on Liney is very encouraging. Hopefully he can be back and effective within two weeks.
I’ve wrote off Crede for the rest of the season, Uribe has been playing very well though, and perhaps he can go on one of his little Uribe like runs where he posts a 250/300/500 line a month or so. His defense has been excellent.
I’m excited for the last 40 games, even if the Sox don’t pull it off it’s a hell of a good season with the emergence of so much young talent, and it gives hope for the future that really wasn’t there prior to this year.
by madvillian on Aug 13, 2008 8:58 AM CDT 0 recs
so you're saying cheat posted a misleading snippet of his own article?
somehow i think he posted exactly what he thought was the salient part.
the atmosphere is just too much for me.
by larry on
Aug 13, 2008 9:03 AM CDT
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i'm not quite sure how.
the atmosphere is just too much for me.
by larry on
Aug 13, 2008 9:13 AM CDT
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someone hasn't had their coffee this morning...
"term: pussy, user: larry, count: 11
term: pussy, user: all, count: 83" - wiz
by Where Triples Go to Die on
Aug 13, 2008 9:07 AM CDT
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Christopher Michaels ≠ The Cheat
Sure they’re contained within the same person, but that doesn’t mean anything.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Aug 13, 2008 9:40 AM CDT
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lol
"term: pussy, user: larry, count: 11
term: pussy, user: all, count: 83" - wiz
by Where Triples Go to Die on
Aug 13, 2008 1:43 PM CDT
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It was either this or the 2 paragraphs on Poreda
I got the reaction I was looking for ;)
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on
Aug 13, 2008 1:08 PM CDT
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i'm sure this was posted on the gamethread or something.
but for those who don’t read those:
Guillen said after Tuesday’s 9-0 shellacking of the Royals that Quentin will be out of action once again on Wednesday night.“Quentin is OK,” Guillen said. “I’m going to give him one more day to make sure he’s fine.”
the atmosphere is just too much for me.
by larry on Aug 13, 2008 9:09 AM CDT 0 recs
clearly, he has been the problem with this offense all year.
we should sit him for the rest of the season…
"term: pussy, user: larry, count: 11
term: pussy, user: all, count: 83" - wiz
by Where Triples Go to Die on
Aug 13, 2008 9:14 AM CDT
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Am I the only one who likes the OBP addition and everything
But thinks Q should actually MOVE sometimes????
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
by Tdogg on
Aug 13, 2008 9:20 AM CDT
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Yes...
if Quentin breaks his hand getting HBP, we are fucked because Swisher would apparently start in LF with Griffey in CF. LOL.
"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry
by SSH2005 on
Aug 13, 2008 9:23 AM CDT
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Dammit, I get no Q in person this eve?
No respect. Fer Chrissakes.
"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT
by winningugly on
Aug 13, 2008 12:48 PM CDT
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Sucks to be you, ravioli tosser!
this isn't hard. you live in a port city. and you're a slut. do the math. -larry
by rhythm on
Aug 13, 2008 12:49 PM CDT
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My cousin is driving me to the game
after I meet a buddy for drinks in about 90 minutes. Diamond box, free drinks, and a chauffeur, and I am one lit Dago mix tonight.
And, HSA, I have a full head of hair but none on my back. So there.
Enjoy the the game tonight, gents and ladies. I will.
"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT
by winningugly on
Aug 13, 2008 12:52 PM CDT
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Who's ass did you kiss last night?
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on
Aug 13, 2008 12:52 PM CDT
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I hope you are meeting my dad for drinks at Miller's Pub to give him my Chelexei shirt.
If not, you can ship it directly to Seattle.
Bring home a winner! Please!
"just realized the superman uni is barely visible but slightly protruding out of his jersey. and i began to slightly protrude out of my pants." - MM
by homesickalien on
Aug 13, 2008 1:19 PM CDT
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Just got Goose Gossage's autograph
and a picture with him at our conference! He looks effin’ great. He signed my ticket for tonight’s game. He also said he didn’t choose his hat for Cooperstown (I expressed disappointment he didn’t go in a white Sox). So I love him even more now.
"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT
by winningugly on
Aug 13, 2008 1:24 PM CDT
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Very Cool
Sounds like he even gave you a litte “goose” when you walked away.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on
Aug 13, 2008 1:28 PM CDT
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Damn, forgot the clearly again.
but for you, I feel like I don’t need it anyways.
I hope you make a drunken ass of yourself, with colintj’s bourbon experiment as your guide. Fare thee well, Dago, fare thee well.
this isn't hard. you live in a port city. and you're a slut. do the math. -larry
by rhythm on
Aug 13, 2008 1:32 PM CDT
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I think a lot hinges on Linebrink coming back fully effective
If the Sox can hold the fort and Linebrink comes back the way he was early in the year, I think the bullpen will stabilize and we have a shot.
Contreras going down really hurt us.
Coffee is for closers.
by vince_ on Aug 13, 2008 9:20 AM CDT 0 recs
It did
Its funny because we were all ripping on him before… you don’t know what you’ve got till its gone I guess
by 815Sox on
Aug 13, 2008 9:21 AM CDT
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It hurts more because he was looking really good on Saturday.
"I’m gonna rise up, gonna kick a little ass. Gonna kick some ass in the USA. Gonna climb a mountain, gonna sew a flag, gonna fly on an eagle. I’m gonna kick some butt, gonna drive a big truck. I’m gonna rule this world. I’m gonna kick some ass. I’m gonna rise up, gonna kick a little ass. Rock, flag, and eagle!"
by Ozzie Montana on
Aug 13, 2008 11:44 AM CDT
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The Tigers season is over already but...
The Detroit Free Press reports that Joel Zumaya’s loss Tuesday night “evidently will be his last appearance for a while” because of “ailments in his upper pitching arm.”
Zumaya allowed two hits and handed out three walks without getting an out Tuesday, and according to manager Jim Leyland he had a medical exam after the game. “I can assure you, I’m not going to have Zumaya for a while, even if everything checks out all right,” Leyland said. “All I know is there is a problem. Joel is not himself. I can see it in his face. I can see it in his demeanor. Right now, I don’t feel comfortable pitching Joel. I’m not talking about because of results. I’m talking about because something is not right. It’s going to be next year until he gets back to 100 percent.”Source: Detroit Free Press
"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry
by SSH2005 on Aug 13, 2008 9:25 AM CDT 0 recs
they rushed both of those guys back. perhaps understandable considering their bullpen woes at the time. but the consequences may be dire.
the atmosphere is just too much for me.
by larry on
Aug 13, 2008 9:27 AM CDT
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Also, how big of a failure was that Sheffield trade?
It seemed like it was going to be similar to the Thome trade at first. Acquire a big bat to DH for your team and keep the old guy healthy since he won’t be playing the field.
"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry
by SSH2005 on
Aug 13, 2008 9:31 AM CDT
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Thome sucks
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
by Tdogg on
Aug 13, 2008 9:35 AM CDT
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