The Four Horsemen...pt1

Hey guys....I've been watching our four everyday starters on a closer basis lately...and I have had this piece in mind for awhile now...just never got around to writing it.  Now, I'm no colin or cheat, but I gotta say, writing this has been fun and hopefully can provide some decent insight and spark some discussion the next few days.  It's basically an evaluation/expectation thing about our four horsemen going into the home stretch of the season...I'll start with Danks today, then follow up each day with Floyd, Vazquez, and Buehrle respectively.

John Danks                                                  

Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card             Pecota Card

Sportsline Gamelogs                                         Fangraphs

To say that Kenny Williams pulled a fast one on Texas trading away Brandon "the 2nd coming" McCarthy and receiving pitching prospects John Danks and Nick Massett in return is the understatement.  Sure, you can say last year McCarthy and Danks were argubly the same pitcher with McCarthy sporting a better ERA while pitching roughly 40 innings less.  However, the Sox can be declared the winner by 1,000 legs this year looking at the emergence of John Danks as an ace in the hole (and what the hell is McCarthy doing these days? eating pansages to rehab???).  The development of two pitches has put young Johnny on the road to becoming an extremely successful major league pitcher for an extended period of time.

First off, his circle change has made leaps and bounds compared to last year.  His ability to keep it down and have good downward movement with it will only lead to more success on a wider scale and really give him an even better look to his fastball.  His motion on the change may seem a bit iffy at times, but keep in mind he's still a young pitcher that will continue to develop and in time this pitch will become a definite plus pitch that he'll use very effectively to LHB and RHB.

Next is the cutter which basically came out of nowhere as Danks says he learned it throughout spring training.  It's become an effective pitch for him when he has it working and has helped him raise his GB% almost 10 percent from last year.  His fastball still has a good jump to it and he has used his curveball a lot less this year compared to last year.  When he's got the cutter, change, and four seam working for him, and can mix in that nasty curve of his along with the occasional slider, it just makes him that much more effective. 

This year Danks has also sported a highly improved pick-off move to 1st perhaps taking some tips from Burls in the process.  To really see the progress Danks has made this year, just read through his stats and check out the game logs and look at all the quality starts.  He's given up more than three runs just six times in twenty-four starts.  On top of that, Danks has yielded more than 4 ER to the opposing team just twice while also pitching into the sixth inning in all but five starts.  This is a great sign for him even though the pitch count still tends to run up a lot (but this will happen as he is striking out more hitters as well).  Looking through his stats, basically all of the stats that should have improved a lot as Danks has emerged as perhaps our best starter.  Another stat I'll throw out is that the Sox's record is 14-10 when he starts; in seven of the games that the Sox have lost with Danks on the bump, the offense has scored 3 runs or less including being shutout three times. He may not have the impressive win totals or the under 3 ERA as other top guys in the league but Danks has definitely been among the best in baseball this year. 

What should we expect from Johnny the rest of the year?  After three "blah" starts to end July, Danks has looked brilliant so far in 2 August starts.  He's been scored upon only in the 7th inning both starts after cruising through the first six each time through including the no-hit bid Monday.  Here's his line so far this month:

2 games: 1-1  13 2/3 IP  6 H  3 R  3 ER  15 K  3 BB  1 HBP

So basically if Danks can continue to keep his change low in the strike zone and hit spots with the fastball and cutter...all while mixing in his sharp curve and slider...everyone should remain happy with him.  All he needs is solid run support the rest of the way.  Here are my predictions on what his lines will look like from here on out: 6-7 IP each time out scattering hits while giving up no more than 5 R or 4 ER to go along with a handful of Ks and a few walks here and there.  John Danks has become my favorite pitcher to watch next to Mark Buehrle, and the two are becoming one in the same except Buehrle uses his curve more.  Well I hope you guys enjoyed...writing this stuff is a shitload of fun dudes....up next: gavin floyd