The Four Horsemen...pt3

Where is Javy Dent?  We all believe in Javy, but this year has been full of inconsistent starts and stretches of suckitude worse than washburn the past 3 years (see kenwo's posts in the recap from a few days ago or something)...so here's the highly anticipated pt 3 of the 4 part epic saga lolz....enjoy it dudes kthxbai...

Javier Vazquez

Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card                   Pecota Card

Sportsline Gamelogs                                                Fangraphs

I could make this entire thing maybe a couple sentences based on Javy's last two starts.  We'll carry this one on for a little bit though and delve into why Javy's season has gone the way it has to this point.  Basically, we're either gonna shower the guy with flowers or be on suicide watch whenever he pitches.  Or sometimes you get a mix of the two and that's just too much for some guys (ssh mainly but that's neither here nor there). 

When Vazquez is at his best, he's not using all five of his pitches on a consistent basis.  What he does is establish his fastball early and use his ability to paint the black with that fastball regularly.  Although he uses the slider more than the curveball and change, I would argue that those last two pitches are more ef fective than his slider.  He tends to leave the slider up at times and it looks like more of a get-me-over pitch at times and hitters don't miss it.  This year it's killed him especially because when he hangs that slider on 1-2, 2-2, it's with guys on base and that's the big inning that kills him.  When he has his big loopy curveball going, it's devastating.  Looking at the speed difference, hitting around 93 mainly with the fastball and then that curve getting clocked sometimes at 67 on the gun is sick. 

Now, not that Javy has pitched great all year (which he hasn't), but a few times he's received little or no support from the offense in a losing effort.  He's received two runs or less or support 7 times including the offense being shutout twice back in May.  Pitching the way he has this month (he gave up 5 ER against Detroit but he wasn't the worst we've seen him be).  Another stat you gotta love from Javy is the fact that he has not made it out of the fifth inning only once in 25 starts.  So he's almost a lock for 6-7 IP out there everytime.  If the offense continues on this hot streak, he can relax even more and not worry about throwing 8 scoreless all the time. 

As much as we all hate it, we all must learn to live with the fact that Javy will go out there and will have that occasional big inning where he gives up 3 or 4 runs and dominates the rest of the way.  It's going to happen and we'll want to shoot him because he's one pitch away from ending it and he throws that god damn slider and the hitter fucking smashes it. 

Hawk said something a few weeks back that sounded like a great observation and it makes a lot of sense: Javy throws five pitches, which not many pitchers do.  But a lot of the time, Javy will go out there and in the first couple innings he'll throw all 5 of his pitches to every hitter.  It's a mixture of him trying to hit corners and being too fine with his pitches when he's ahead in the count and overthinking about what to throw in what situation.  If hitters see what you have in one at bat, they can recognize what's coming the next time up and gear up for something they can knock the piss out of.  From watching Javy pitch, he's at his best when he uses the fastball like I said earlier and then also works with his change and curve, and mixing in the occasional slider.  If he can continue to work with his three bread and butter pitches, then he'll continue to open up a spot to throw the slider.  Because when a hitter has 4 pitches to think about coming at him with two strikes, that's usually a recipe for success for the pitcher.

I expect Javy to build on his last two starts and continue to throw quality starts ending the year over .500 and a below 4 ERA along with over 200 IP and Ks for the fourth time in his career...