South Side Sox: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:

Around SBN: Check out our NFL Scoreboard: scores, schedule and blogs Bar-right-arrows

Gavin Floyd: Counterpoint

Gavin Floyd has been extremely lucky this year. He sports the sixth-lowest BABIP of any starting pitcher (.255), and, not coincidentally, his actual ERA (3.78) has been far lower than his FIP (4.95). In fact, if we use FIP as a standard, only three starting pitchers have been luckier than Floyd this season (Joe Saunders, Shaun Marcum, and Armando Galarraga). Conventional sabermetric wisdom suggests that Floyd is very likely to regress.

But if we look more closely at Floyd's season, we can see that the "conventional wisdom" is misleading. Yes, Floyd's overall numbers are indicative of good luck, but a closer look yields two interesting results: first, Floyd has improved significantly over the course of the season; second, Floyd has already regressed.

Link 3 months ago Deadhorse_tiny larry Comment 357 comments 0 recs |

Read Related

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

I guess if it was all luck...

He would be getting bombed more frequently lately. He seems to keep having quality starts. His biggest enemy seems to be serving up the 3-run jack on a total meatball.

"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry

by SSH2005 on Aug 21, 2008 11:40 AM CDT   0 recs

That's my point...

since he is apparently always going to give up a lot of homers, if he can stay away from giving them up with men on base and just keep on giving up the solo jacks it won’t kill him.

"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry

by SSH2005 on Aug 21, 2008 12:56 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

yep. Gavin = Fergie

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 21, 2008 1:00 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

he isn't doing a very good job giving up the solo jacks, at least compared to the other guys on the sox.

he has given up a LOT of 2 run homers (14 of 23 overall) and only 1/3 are solo shots, as opposed to 9/11 for danks, 9/17 for buehrle, and 16/21 for vazquez.

let’s just keep our fingers crossed.

"that woman deserves her revenge and we deserve to die."

by Toonderstrook on Aug 21, 2008 1:03 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

welcome to the land of those unable to repeat mechanics.

floyd no likey pitching from the stretch.

"Suck it up Bunky, we gotta go.'" - ron gardenhire

by larry on Aug 21, 2008 1:07 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Exactly...

Whenever I see Floyd with runners on base, I picture a white Contreras from a couple years back when he would always shit himself with baserunners.

"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry

by SSH2005 on Aug 21, 2008 1:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

it's not "shitting himself"

he doesn’t get the same movement on his pitches from the stretch.

"Suck it up Bunky, we gotta go.'" - ron gardenhire

by larry on Aug 21, 2008 1:15 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't understand pitching from the stretch...

when you don’t even have a chance of holding baserunners, regardless of the way you pitch (like Contreras and Floyd).

"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry

by SSH2005 on Aug 21, 2008 1:20 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

um, not everyone can steal on those guys.

but if they started pitching from the windup, frank thomas would start.

"Suck it up Bunky, we gotta go.'" - ron gardenhire

by larry on Aug 21, 2008 1:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

maybe he sharts a little, though?

anecdotally, the 15 home runs of the more than solo variety that gavin has given up have been immediately preceded by a double 7 times(!), a walk 3 times, a runner reaching on an error 1 time, and an out 4 times.

"that woman deserves her revenge and we deserve to die."

by Toonderstrook on Aug 21, 2008 1:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

see above

“welcome to the land of those unable to repeat mechanics.”

"Suck it up Bunky, we gotta go.'" - ron gardenhire

by larry on Aug 21, 2008 1:30 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

maybe he does repeat...just in the bad way.

"that woman deserves her revenge and we deserve to die."

by Toonderstrook on Aug 21, 2008 2:05 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

your statement though got me interested in the healthy sox starters' hr stats.

between them, floyd (23), danks (11), buehrle (17), and vazquez (21) have served up 72 home runs—43 solo shots, 22 two-run jobs, 7 three-run jacks, and 1 grand slam.

danks is clearly the star here, surrending bombs at a much lower rate than the rest and with considerably less damage (9 solo, 1 two-run, 1 three-run). javy, for what it’s worth, has also picked pretty good times to give up the long ball as 16 of the 21 have cost the sox only 1 run.

"that woman deserves her revenge and we deserve to die."

by Toonderstrook on Aug 21, 2008 12:25 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

should be 42 solo shots, not 43. stupid abacus.

"that woman deserves her revenge and we deserve to die."

by Toonderstrook on Aug 21, 2008 12:26 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

or stupid Toonder

this isn't hard. you live in a port city. and you're a slut. do the math. -larry

by rhythm on Aug 21, 2008 2:29 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Thank you

This is the type of piece that I was looking for on Gavin good or bad. Its something more than your basic Gavin has been lucky and is likely regress stuff I have read over and over.

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Aug 21, 2008 11:53 AM CDT   0 recs

something about squeeky wheels...

"Suck it up Bunky, we gotta go.'" - ron gardenhire

by larry on Aug 21, 2008 11:58 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

One future argument

And please folks lets at least wait till the off season, will be the call to trade Floyd at his perceived highest value. I suspect I will be one of the minority who will think that is not a good idea. By the way Gavin’s runs allowed is down to 4.84.

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Aug 21, 2008 12:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

ruse.

arte moreno doesn’t have a nanny. you have to throw in shields now, asshole.

"Suck it up Bunky, we gotta go.'" - ron gardenhire

by larry on Aug 21, 2008 12:39 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The Sox couldn't afford to trade Floyd even when Contreras was healthy...

Contreras is 50 so he could have easily been terrible next season anyways and the only true rotation replacement the Sox have is Poreda.

"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry

by SSH2005 on Aug 21, 2008 12:59 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

and even he might not be "true" as a starter until 2010.

"that woman deserves her revenge and we deserve to die."

by Toonderstrook on Aug 21, 2008 1:01 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

sure they could.

"Suck it up Bunky, we gotta go.'" - ron gardenhire

by larry on Aug 21, 2008 1:04 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

In general, I'd like the Sox to keep Floyd

There’s no one in the minors to take his place, and if he can be an average starter in the AL for the minimum that’s actually hard to replace (and I do think he has shown he can be average starter next year, as the posted article points out).

Obviously, all the caveats apply about anyone being moveable in the right deal, but unless the return is something special (e.g. very good catching prospects ready for the bigs) I’d keep him.

by hitlesswonder on Aug 21, 2008 1:01 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah

you can take a break from bloggin if you don’t like it ;-)

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Aug 21, 2008 12:41 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i have enough stress in my life without you.

"Suck it up Bunky, we gotta go.'" - ron gardenhire

by larry on Aug 21, 2008 12:42 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

speaking of...

I do wish he’d come back to at least participate. Bag the admin stuff if he needs to, but don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater (so to speak). If the Sox should make the playoffs, it’d be nice if he had to place to enjoy it with likeminded fans.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 21, 2008 12:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

"Suck it up Bunky, we gotta go.'" - ron gardenhire

by larry on Aug 21, 2008 1:03 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

the lack of win is strong with this one

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Aug 21, 2008 1:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

you too, huh?

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 21, 2008 1:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

so it's not just shitty explorer?

"that woman deserves her revenge and we deserve to die."

by Toonderstrook on Aug 21, 2008 1:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm at work, so Explorer it is.

Funny, Safari (phone) usually opens IE fials.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 21, 2008 1:14 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I thought this was Larry's intentional fial, in response to you, who inadvertenly fialed with photos for so long.

My detector is weak today, but I suspect Larry mean for that red x.

Oooh la la! Change is beautiful.......(veers off pathway with bike) Whoa!

by homesickalien on Aug 21, 2008 1:34 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

nah. i just don't care anymore. if the picture shows up, fine. if the picture can only be seen with a right click and show picture, fine. if you need to cut and paste the properties, fine.

and if it doesn’t show up, fine. the “fail” thing sort of lost its amusement right around the time of your dad’s epic fails.

"Suck it up Bunky, we gotta go.'" - ron gardenhire

by larry on Aug 21, 2008 1:40 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I would think someone who is used to manipulating behavior

would want to exert every ounce of influence he could to do just that.

"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT

by winningugly on Aug 21, 2008 1:43 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

ha.

I have not known Larry to be a diplomatic pacifist.

Oooh la la! Change is beautiful.......(veers off pathway with bike) Whoa!

by homesickalien on Aug 21, 2008 1:50 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i don't know what this means.

"Suck it up Bunky, we gotta go.'" - ron gardenhire

by larry on Aug 21, 2008 1:50 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Aye, there's the rub

If you’ve already loaded it via the direct address, it shows. If you haven’t loaded it before, it won’t show via the image tags. I think that’s a pbase thing.

Chip, chip, chip, chip.
Sox Machine

by Sox Machine on Aug 21, 2008 1:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

right click give me choices, one of which is "show picture"

still fial.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 21, 2008 1:14 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

maybe click on properties?

"Suck it up Bunky, we gotta go.'" - ron gardenhire

by larry on Aug 21, 2008 1:15 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

already tried. then tried pasting the url and still fialed.

but I’m sure it was worth all theses machinations.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 21, 2008 1:17 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

it was. c'est la vie. no way to share it, then, i guess.

"Suck it up Bunky, we gotta go.'" - ron gardenhire

by larry on Aug 21, 2008 1:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCKKKKKKKKKKKKKK YOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU NIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIICK PUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUNTOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Matchup: Twins (72-54) at Angels (77-48), 7:05 p.m. PT
Probable Starters: Scott Baker (119 2/3 IP, 3.91 RA, 1.20 WHIP, 101 K) vs. John Lackey (120 1/3, 3.44, 1.14, 93)
Pythagorean Record: Minnesota, 69-57 (641 RS, 579 RA); Los Angeles, 69-56 (587 RS, 528 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Minnesota, #14; Los Angeles, #5
Prospectus: Just one back of the White Sox in the AL Central and just a half-game behind Boston for the wild-card spot, Minnesota begins a four-game series against the team with the best record in baseball. The Twins lineup will be bolstered by the return of second baseman Alexi Casilla, who missed the last 21 games with a torn thumb tendon, an injury that was initially feared to be serious enough to possibly knock him out for the season. Minnesota’s offense performed well in Casilla’s absence, scoring 5.9 runs per game, but of course the Twins are much better off with their 23-year-old switch-hitter in the fold, who has been Minnesota’s best offensive option in the middle infield this year. Casilla’s return to a starting role will push Nick Punto back to shortstop, where he will have to fight for playing time with Brendan Harris, who has been hitting lately (.340 average in his last 15 games).

"Suck it up Bunky, we gotta go.'" - ron gardenhire

by larry on Aug 21, 2008 12:50 PM CDT   0 recs

I think the Twins are going to lose

The bullpen blows, they didn’t do all that great against Oaktown… I think they begin to fall off here

by 815Sox on Aug 21, 2008 7:32 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

so it would seem that the higher era for the last 16 starts

can be attributed to the higher HR/FB ratio, right? but his other stats indicate improvement. does anybody have thoughts whether the k/9 in particular is sustainable, at least through next season?

by onlysoxfaninboston on Aug 21, 2008 12:51 PM CDT   0 recs

yes

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 21, 2008 12:55 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

no.

counterpoint.

"Suck it up Bunky, we gotta go.'" - ron gardenhire

by larry on Aug 21, 2008 1:07 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

this isn't that revelatory for this community, actually

plenty of optimism in that voting

we know the line on gavin. stuff = good. command = not good.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Aug 21, 2008 1:06 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

don't know why it shouldn't be, but no way do I speculate about next season

your original question.
no matter how many times you ask.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Aug 21, 2008 1:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

well this is one of the reasons i'd really like to get my command metric going

but there’s no way in hell i’m doing that by hand. but basically, i think he’s erratic because he can’t repeat his mechanics consistently. so he’s going to have to go on a long streak with very good control. and every time i watch him i see a guy who isn’t really sure where the next pitch is headed. so i’m not convinced, but i’m not going to say i don’t think it can happen.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Aug 21, 2008 1:30 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

exactly

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Aug 21, 2008 1:32 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I like how you did that, after a rant about English majors...

you knew Colin was going to correct you on that.

He is white after all.

"White people love rules. It explains why so they get upset when people cut in line, why they tip so religiously and why they become lawyers. "

Oooh la la! Change is beautiful.......(veers off pathway with bike) Whoa!

by homesickalien on Aug 21, 2008 1:37 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i correct myself all the fucking time, and i like the wire

reckon i ain’t white either, last time i looked in a mirror

by onlysoxfaninboston on Aug 21, 2008 1:40 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You don't want to be a member of that club.

You’d be traded by Chapelle from the “black” team, just like Tiger, Condi, and Colin (Powell, that is).

"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT

by winningugly on Aug 21, 2008 1:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Whoa, check out the relatively current cultural reference from WU!

I am impressed, opos!

Oooh la la! Change is beautiful.......(veers off pathway with bike) Whoa!

by homesickalien on Aug 21, 2008 1:52 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i saw that sketch, some good shit there

have you seen the charlie murphy stories?

by onlysoxfaninboston on Aug 21, 2008 1:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Love 'em.

How does a guy get $35M and decide to walk away and go to Africa, then back to small stand-up clubs? Pressure sometimes does not build diamonds.

"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT

by winningugly on Aug 21, 2008 2:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i know you fucking do.

it was a fucking joke.

fucking regards.

Oooh la la! Change is beautiful.......(veers off pathway with bike) Whoa!

by homesickalien on Aug 21, 2008 1:51 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

keep cool, my baby.

I’m the most chill person on this entire site.

I’m the hippie in the NW, reeeemmmeemmmmmber?

I’s kidding too. I don’t even think Colin would have actually corrected you – I just wanted to link that beautiful blog post.

Oooh la la! Change is beautiful.......(veers off pathway with bike) Whoa!

by homesickalien on Aug 21, 2008 1:55 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs