Gavin Floyd has been extremely lucky this year. He sports the sixth-lowest BABIP of any starting pitcher (.255), and, not coincidentally, his actual ERA (3.78) has been far lower than his FIP (4.95). In fact, if we use FIP as a standard, only three starting pitchers have been luckier than Floyd this season (Joe Saunders, Shaun Marcum, and Armando Galarraga). Conventional sabermetric wisdom suggests that Floyd is very likely to regress.
But if we look more closely at Floyd's season, we can see that the "conventional wisdom" is misleading. Yes, Floyd's overall numbers are indicative of good luck, but a closer look yields two interesting results: first, Floyd has improved significantly over the course of the season; second, Floyd has already regressed.