Gavin Floyd to Pitch on Short Rest, I'm Confused

by Christopher Michaels on Sep 19, 2008 1:08 PM CDT in White Sox News

Mark Buehrle to start tonight

I need some help. I thought I had this rotation thing all squared away. Then I read this Mark Gonzales column which says that Gavin Floyd will go on short rest Saturday against the Royals so that he can throw the final game of the Twins series next week. That's a lot to digest, so here's a visual of how I thought the rotation would look down the stretch.

Monday, September 15       6:05 PM CDT     @ NYY      Buehrle
Tuesday, September 16      6:05 PM CDT     @ NYY      Floyd
Wednesday, September 17    6:05 PM CDT     @ NYY      Richard
Thursday, September 18     6:05 PM CDT     @ NYY      Vazquez*
Friday, September 19       7:10 PM CDT     @ KC       Danks
Saturday, September 20     6:10 PM CDT     @ KC       Buehrle
Sunday, September 21       1:10 PM CDT     @ KC       Floyd
Monday, September 22                       OFF        ---
Tuesday, September 23      7:10 PM CDT     @ MIN      Vazquez
Wednesday, September 24    7:10 PM CDT     @ MIN      Danks
Thursday, September 25     7:10 PM CDT     @ MIN      Buhrle
Friday, September 26       7:11 PM CDT     CLE        Floyd
Saturday, September 27     6:05 PM CDT     CLE        Vazquez*
Sunday, September 28       1:05 PM CDT     CLE        Danks*
Monday, September 29?      TBA             DET        Buehrle*

With the exception of the doubleheader-induced short rest for Vazquez last night, all of the starters would stay on regular rest until after the Twins series, when a more informed decision could have been made.

Now the rotation looks like this.

Monday, September 15       6:05 PM CDT     @ NYY      Buehrle
Tuesday, September 16      6:05 PM CDT     @ NYY      Floyd
Wednesday, September 17    6:05 PM CDT     @ NYY      Richard
Thursday, September 18     6:05 PM CDT     @ NYY      Vazquez*
Friday, September 19       7:10 PM CDT     @ KC       Buehrle*
Saturday, September 20     6:10 PM CDT     @ KC       Floyd*
Sunday, September 21       1:10 PM CDT     @ KC       Danks
Monday, September 22                       OFF        ---
Tuesday, September 23      7:10 PM CDT     @ MIN      Vazquez
Wednesday, September 24    7:10 PM CDT     @ MIN      Buehrle
Thursday, September 25     7:10 PM CDT     @ MIN      Floyd
Friday, September 26       7:11 PM CDT     CLE        Danks
Saturday, September 27     6:05 PM CDT     CLE        Vazquez*
Sunday, September 28       1:05 PM CDT     CLE        Buehrle*
Monday, September 29?      TBA             DET        Floyd*

My take is that the Sox have decided to avoid any scenario that has John Danks, who has struggled a bit in the second half but appeared stronger in his last two outings, throwing on short rest. But in doing so, they've added two extra short-rest starts from their starters. As we saw last night, with Javier Vazquez flying open and not finishing his pitches in his shortest outing of the season, pitching on short rest can yield some undesirable results. I question how the second rotation is better than the first, even if it puts less strain on our prized young arm.

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Comments

well, i've said on here that danks is a ticking time bomb. so this is the route i would go.

we’ll see. the sox have a better feel for their staff than any of us, after all. if i may posit one scenario, though, it may well be that the sox hope to have things sealed up by next weekend and thus make the short rest for that series irrelevant. and that’s what i would call a relatively likely scenario.

fight like a cat: paws up. - ozzie

by larry on Sep 19, 2008 1:12 PM CDT reply actions

Just looked up Buehrle's record on short rest... pretty good

I didn’t realize he threw one game this season with only 3 days rest. July 22, what caused that? I was out of the loop. Contreras’ DL trip?

by Christopher Michaels on Sep 19, 2008 1:21 PM CDT reply actions

had to go to someone's funeral on his scheduled start.i believe it was his grandfather.

fight like a cat: paws up. - ozzie

by larry on Sep 19, 2008 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions

Correctamundo.

"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry

by SSH2005 on Sep 19, 2008 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions

Technically

Buehrle is 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA in 5 starts on short rest

but one of those was his first career start after making his debut appearance in the bullpen.

On short rest following starts, he’s 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA…

I have to assume that they’ve had this plan back when Ozzie was putting the worst reliever in White Sox history into a tie game to keep Buehrle’s load light. But then Ozzie went with the opposite approach, lettting FLoyd throw his career high pitches in a game. So who knows?

by Christopher Michaels on Sep 19, 2008 1:37 PM CDT reply actions

Maybe letting Zambrano throw 110 pitches in his first start back from injury...

was not a good idea. The Cardinals are destroying him. But what manager is going to take a guy out of a no hitter?

"god, you’re fucking stupid."
-- Larry

by SSH2005 on Sep 19, 2008 1:50 PM CDT reply actions

wrong board

"Deserve's got nothin to do with it."

by U-God on Sep 19, 2008 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions

haha

by onlysoxfaninboston on Sep 19, 2008 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions

Knock it off, already. No one cares. No one.

Agree w/ the Danks decision (if it is decided), as we talked “wall” issues earlier, as lar-bear has noted. Mark is a horse and has been my guy all year re: taking the ball in needy situations. Remember his WS relief appearance? He’s the doughboy, and since he works so quickly he’s not out there very long.

Danks, Javy, and Floyd are ponderous as hell, standing around on the mound an extra 15-20 minutes a game (I bet). I like this plan. We’ll see how Mark does tonight – I bet we find out fast if he’s in the groove.

"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT

by winningugly on Sep 19, 2008 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions

agreed, if you think danks has hit the wall, then this is the way to go

by onlysoxfaninboston on Sep 19, 2008 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions

I was initially with Cheat on this, but

I think this is what’s going on. Pitchers with their age and IP where relevant. Obviously Buehrle and Vazquez are beyond the “injury nexus” age and have thrown 200+ innings many times.

Mark Buehrle SP 29
John Danks SP 23 career high IP: 156 this year IP: 176
Gavin Floyd SP 25 career high IP: 177 this year IP: 188
Javier Vazquez SP 32

Danks is right up against that > 30 IP above previous IP high mark and is 2 years younger than floyd.
The Sox clearly (and probably correctly) believe that Danks is at the highest risk of injury here and are doing whatever they can to protect him while not throwing games away (with Broadway and Richard).

The other consideration is that if the Sox make the playoffs that will be even more innings on Danks’ young arm.

After reviewing and rethinking this I am fully convinced this is the “right” thing to do for both the Sox and Danks.

Hopefully it will be enough to both protect Danks and get us to the playoffs.

I think we ought to call Thome and Konerko the "Cholesterol Brothers" because of the way they clog the bases.

by bhoov on Sep 19, 2008 2:28 PM CDT reply actions

If the difference isn't a full win

then I think protecting the investment makes sense here.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Sep 19, 2008 2:30 PM CDT reply actions

Evaluating the changes based purely on pitcher vs. team matchups results (the KC series apparently does not result in a change in the identity of our SP's, just their order):

MIN
Change From: Danks vs. MIN this year: 7.91 ERA with 29 hits against in 19.1 IP
To: Floyd vs. MIN this year: 1.86 ERA with 17 hits against in 29 IP
VERDICT: CHANGE VERY VERY GOOD

CLE
Change From: Floyd vs. CLE this year: 5.25 ERA with 15 hits against in 12 IP
To: Buehrle vs. CLE this year: 9.22 ERA with 17 hits against in 13.2 IP
VERDICT: CHANGE BAD, BUT KINDA MEH

DET (hopefully not relevant)
Change From: Buehrle vs. DET this year: 1.20 ERA with 14 hits against in 15 IP
To: Floyd vs. DET this year: 4.24 ERA with 24 hits aginst in 23.1 IP
VERDICT: CHANGE BAD, BUT HOPEFULLY NOT RELEVANT

Obviously, major sample-size qualifers apply to all this, but combining the apparent significant matchup advantage in the MIN game with the extra rest for our most valuable young pitcher (who has shown signs of running out of gas), I like the changes.

It would have been nice to get Hobby a matchup against the Royals given: (1) his historic dominance of them, and (2) the fact that I pretty much have given up trusting him against anyone else, but it doesn’t look like there was a realistic workable way to arrange that.

by The Actual El Guapo on Sep 19, 2008 2:41 PM CDT reply actions

Discussion on unlucky hitters this season

guess who’s at the top of the list?

http://web.sny.tv/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080917&content_id=1475667&oid=35003_f&vkey=42

by Illini0509 on Sep 19, 2008 2:59 PM CDT reply actions

rebuttal

http://soxmachine.com/blogs/soxmachine/archive/2008/09/18/13900.aspx

fight like a cat: paws up. - ozzie

by larry on Sep 19, 2008 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions

certainly a more thorough analysis

by Illini0509 on Sep 19, 2008 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions

Jim's the man.

Since br scares the shit outta me, what are Swish’s numbers on either side of the plate?

I know that game that he had 3 consecutive K’s (was it against Halladay? I know it was someone scary for him), he came up for his 4th at-bat and hit from the left side and got a double.

Any major improvement from the right to left side for him? thanks, stat-extraordinaires.

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Sep 19, 2008 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions

i dunno if jim's the man.

unless you mean he’s the man who had illicit relations with ssh’s wife up against a statute and let ssh photograph it. i personally find that weird but you’re a port slut so i guess that’s par for your course.

fight like a cat: paws up. - ozzie

by larry on Sep 19, 2008 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions

Jim is certainly the man. I dig his style and he does a damn fine job on that blog we never look at.

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Sep 19, 2008 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions

Who is this Jim of whom you are speaking, and what blog does he toil over?

"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT

by winningugly on Sep 19, 2008 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions

ha you make the same mistake i always do

“statute”

by Illini0509 on Sep 19, 2008 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree with Jim that Swisher has been lost in September

but I’d suggest that it’s a function of his terrible luck. That’s the sort of thing that would fuck with my approach, in any case.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Sep 19, 2008 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions

Why so serious?

by reardenmettle on Sep 19, 2008 3:50 PM CDT reply actions

Matey Swisher sure was borne 'neath a terr'ble sign.

AVAST.

Uribe whispered, "My precious child, I love you and will never leave you, never, ever, during your trials and testings. When you saw only one set of footprints, It was then that I carried you."

by thecip on Sep 19, 2008 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions