South Side Sox: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:

Around SBN: Check out our NFL Scoreboard: scores, schedule and blogs Bar-right-arrows

Comprehensive Statistical Analysis: It Seems Likely that the Winner of Tonight's White Sox - Twins Game Will be Decided by "Runs Scored".

17258_0003_tiny by The Actual El Guapo on

My post yesterday, addressing what I perceived to be the relative importance of the Tigers-White Sox game to the White Sox 2008 playoff chances, received a fair amount of criticism.  Put briefly, some of the site's more sophisticated, "elite" readers seemed to believe that some of the points I made were overly simplistic.  The proprietor of this site, in fact, has informed me that there were several threats by readers to cancel their subscriptions; which is of course particularly troubling in today's chilly economic climate.

By way of recompense, and to prove that the editors of this site can talk stats, "advanced metrics" and "the numbers game" as well as any of the so-called "experts" out there (and you know who you are, NS), this post therefore addresses a far more advanced topic:  What I believe will be the key statistic in determining the winner of tonight's White Sox - Twins matchup. 

After performing exhaustive research and thorough analysis of essentially all relevant methods of measurement -- including "OPS", "SLG", "OBP", "VORP", "WARP", "SNLVR", "Runs Created", "POS", "OPOS", "Moneyballyosity", "Winneritude", "Wanting-it-More-y-ness", " "Dirty-Uniform-Expectancy (ver.2/pants)", and "Caught-Stealing/Player-Height" -- I am prepared to present my findings.

Runs scored, fellow readers, runs scored - I truly believe that tonight's winner will be the team which scores the most total runs in the game.  My findings indicate that it will be exceedingly difficult for either team to overcome a significant deficit in runs scored tonight; particularly if such team trails in that department at the end of the contest. 

Unfortunately, space constraints do not permit me to "show my work", but I certainly welcome any challenges, questions, comments, etc. from you, the readers.  Let me have it but, please, please, please: Be gentle!

Poll
How about you? Will runs scored be a key in determining the winner of tonight's game?
yes.
59 votes
no.
30 votes
blarghhh.
56 votes
kenwo=ratings.
64 votes

209 votes | Poll has closed

SouthSideSox is a community driven site. As such, users are able to express their thoughts and opinions in a FanPost, such as this one, which represents the views of this particular fan, but not necessarily the entire community or SouthSideSox editors.

5 recs | Comment 89 comments

Read Related

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Another way of looking at it . . . .

is that the team that allows the fewest runs will win. Puts the focus on pitching rather than hitting.

by VAChisox on Sep 30, 2008 3:05 PM CDT   0 recs

Finally, a fellow traveler on the path of knowledge!

This must’ve been what it was like when Bohr got to meet Einstein.

Or Abbot & Costello got to meet Frankenstein.

by The Actual El Guapo on Sep 30, 2008 3:47 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

And Dracula. Don't forget Dracula.

"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT

by winningugly on Sep 30, 2008 5:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Quick question:

You say:

“My findings indicate that it will be exceedingly difficult for either team to overcome a significant deficit in runs scored tonight…”

I ask:

What is a “significant” deficit? I’d agree if you mean maybe 6 or 7 runs, yet I’m not so confident that the Twinks couldn’t overcome one of 2 or 3.

Please explain or ‘show your work’.
(I’d say submit to peer review, but you are peerless.)

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:07 PM CDT   0 recs

I like your confidence in the Twins.

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Sep 30, 2008 4:19 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

One more quick question:

Did you also factor in the ‘Special Sauce’?

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:12 PM CDT   0 recs

special sauce, secret sauce...

another variable that NS uses.
You could look it up…

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

lineups

I hope swish is in left field, he has hit the twins well at the cell!

by BestKosherPolish on Sep 30, 2008 3:21 PM CDT   0 recs

haha

I see what you did there.

President of the Al Newman Fan Club

by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 3:28 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

how so? I, for one, appreciate the research put into this

I didn’t have time to do it myself.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:28 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I was referring too...

Happy Felsch’s comment to the other post by TAEG.

"Rickey Henderson, pick up the phone, man, it's me... you"

by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 3:42 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

It's always funniest if you grab 'em by the collar

and methodically explain the chain of thought that led to the joke.

by Dongfang Hong on Sep 30, 2008 3:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

what's funnier is that you thought it needed explaining

or that my reply to you was taken seriously.
Kids.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 4:00 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I call bullshit.

but hey… it’s the internet.

"Rickey Henderson, pick up the phone, man, it's me... you"

by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 4:02 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Long time reader

first time commenter.

"Rickey Henderson, pick up the phone, man, it's me... you"

by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 4:56 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Poor El Guano...

All the time and effort into this analysis, and the only comments come from Tigers and Twins fans.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:31 PM CDT   0 recs

Were not Twins and Tigers fans

we are fans of solid statistical analysis.

"I never get nervous. Baseball consists of two things: hitting and pitching, and we've got both." - Carl Pohlad

by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 3:34 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

So, turncoat, are you Tigers or Twins?

"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT

by winningugly on Sep 30, 2008 3:35 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Sssh! Don't disturb the visitors.

Daymonster and DonkeyHong may leave if you start up again.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:37 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Naw, I'll never leave. I love SSS.

Many of the posts are great. Some of the comments are dumb, but what do you expect?

"Rickey Henderson, pick up the phone, man, it's me... you"

by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 3:39 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Take a look at the

the picture, website, quote, or information. The answer is there.

"Rickey Henderson, pick up the phone, man, it's me... you"

by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 3:39 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

He was talking to me, not you. "Turncoat" was in reference to a recent hiatus

Enjoy!

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:41 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Ahh, so I see.

I can admit my mistakes.

"Rickey Henderson, pick up the phone, man, it's me... you"

by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 4:03 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

AEG, please tell me you've either worked for or are about to work for The Onion.

You are a perfect compliment to their style. (It is meant as props, bro.)

"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT

by winningugly on Sep 30, 2008 3:37 PM CDT   0 recs

complement too!

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:38 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Fucking stathead,

Watch a baseball game.

signed,

Joe Morgan
The best baseball player ever

Ceterum censeo Minneainem esse delendam.

by thecip on Sep 30, 2008 4:03 PM CDT   0 recs

I hope we're consistent tonite

"I don't care about [players' feelings]," manager Ozzie Guillen said before the game. "They don't care about mine. I never heard any player come to me and say, 'How are you feeling today?' Only my wife told me this morning, 'How do you feel?' I feel fine."

by ChicagoPete on Sep 30, 2008 4:09 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If we can concetrate on consistency, we will win.

But I don’t want to make predictions. You never can know. But I think we’ll win. But we’ll have to remain consistent.

by Dongfang Hong on Sep 30, 2008 4:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

As long as we don't clog the bases we have a shot

"I don't care about [players' feelings]," manager Ozzie Guillen said before the game. "They don't care about mine. I never heard any player come to me and say, 'How are you feeling today?' Only my wife told me this morning, 'How do you feel?' I feel fine."

by ChicagoPete on Sep 30, 2008 4:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Best bullpen I ever seen...

Ceterum censeo Minneainem esse delendam.

by thecip on Sep 30, 2008 5:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Beginning fo the fucking end.

Pitching and defense win baseball games in September and October.

by ballyb on Sep 30, 2008 6:38 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I'll bet Joe loved the market back then, too.

Pitching and defense win baseball games in September and October.

by ballyb on Sep 30, 2008 6:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If only we had Robbie Cano

we’d be shoo-ins, but lemme tell you, while this team may be good, they aren’t as good as the teams I played on in Cinci

-Jeeves Life in the Cell

by jeeves on Sep 30, 2008 5:23 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

AEG, enough of this stat bullshit

Don’t tell me what kind of runs they score, just tell me when they score ’em.

"I don't care about [players' feelings]," manager Ozzie Guillen said before the game. "They don't care about mine. I never heard any player come to me and say, 'How are you feeling today?' Only my wife told me this morning, 'How do you feel?' I feel fine."

by ChicagoPete on Sep 30, 2008 4:08 PM CDT   0 recs

Ya know, Feisty, back in '67 when we won the pennant, Yaz did not drive in or score a single run the entire year.

But he won MVP unanimously, because those writers back then knew what a lot of folks don’t nowadays: It was when he didn’t drive ‘em in or score ’em, not how many he didn’t score or knock in.

by The Actual El Guapo on Sep 30, 2008 4:13 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Did the umpires call it where it crossed the plate or where the catcher caught it that year?

Chicago White Sox Examiner—Your What Hurts?
http://www.examiner.com/x-425-Chicago-White-Sox-Examiner

by UribeAuction on Sep 30, 2008 4:23 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

lineups

sox with same as yesterday

twins have

span
casilla
mauer
morneau
cuddyer -dh
young
harris
punto
gomez

by BestKosherPolish on Sep 30, 2008 4:09 PM CDT   0 recs

no kubel?

Is he shitty against lefties or something?

Lurking since 2006

by boyonthedock on Sep 30, 2008 4:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

vs lhp

Kubel: .232/.330/.374, 3 HR, 15 BB, 22 K, 115 PA
Cuddyer: .246/.372/.308, 12 BB, 14 K, 78 PA

I wish he was in my fantasy league. id bury that cocksucker- KenWo4Life

by Hawk is God on Sep 30, 2008 4:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

something.

it's all about john danks.

by larry on Sep 30, 2008 4:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Ozzie is gutless. Cuddyer is our Swisher.

I hope to christ Wise does well tonight, but I want to see Swisher in there. Fuck.

by dantesox on Sep 30, 2008 5:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Should Be a Fantastic Game tonight

Just Wanted to Stop by and Wish the White Sox the Best Of Luck in the game tonight.

Sincerely

Twins Territory

by Tony_O on Sep 30, 2008 4:43 PM CDT   0 recs

tell me of gods and punto...

Ceterum censeo Minneainem esse delendam.

by thecip on Sep 30, 2008 5:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

sox lineup

 Aparicio, ss
 Fox, 2b
Landis, cf
Lollar, c
Cash, 1b
Smith, rf
Callison, lf
Phillips, 3b
Pierce, p

by RoyEgan on Sep 30, 2008 5:09 PM CDT   0 recs

twins np right now. Lots of people in black and a few annoying twins fans. Playing music with a “black” theme. Paint it black. Black magic woman. Go sox!

by azzy on Sep 30, 2008 5:26 PM CDT   0 recs

whoa-oa black betty

bam-a-lam

I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.

by thatshortkid on Sep 30, 2008 5:29 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Black Dog.

Black Velvet.

"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT

by winningugly on Sep 30, 2008 5:39 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

"I'm black and I'm proud."

If you quote the Godfather of Soul, keep it real.

What about “Black” by Pearl Jam? That ought to get you in the mood.

"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT

by winningugly on Sep 30, 2008 5:35 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i hope i speak for everyone when i say

fuck pearl jam.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Sep 30, 2008 5:37 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

it's on yo

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Sep 30, 2008 5:42 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Aw, just 'cause he's a Cub fan

doesn’t mean the music sucks. Old stuff is great. Old, but great.

"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT

by winningugly on Sep 30, 2008 5:41 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

PS How about a gamethread? WTF?

"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT

by winningugly on Sep 30, 2008 5:41 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

POS?

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Sep 30, 2008 5:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

eff (something)? mother-effer?

I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.

by thatshortkid on Sep 30, 2008 5:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

where the hell is The Pornstar Managing Editor?

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Sep 30, 2008 5:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.

by thatshortkid on Sep 30, 2008 5:35 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

fuck yeah, great ref

although i like nations more. if i had a time machine, would love to travel back and witness the makings of this fine album…

tensing up before the game, but brotha’s gonna work it out i know…

by onlysoxfaninboston on Sep 30, 2008 5:39 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Speaking of Kenwo

I had to tell a father visiting his kids to stop trying to talk to me about wrestling and focus on his child

by 815Sox on Sep 30, 2008 5:30 PM CDT   0 recs