Comprehensive Statistical Analysis: It Seems Likely that the Winner of Tonight's White Sox - Twins Game Will be Decided by "Runs Scored".
by The Actual El Guapo on Sep 30, 2008 2:51 PM CDT
89 comments
My post yesterday, addressing what I perceived to be the relative importance of the Tigers-White Sox game to the White Sox 2008 playoff chances, received a fair amount of criticism. Put briefly, some of the site's more sophisticated, "elite" readers seemed to believe that some of the points I made were overly simplistic. The proprietor of this site, in fact, has informed me that there were several threats by readers to cancel their subscriptions; which is of course particularly troubling in today's chilly economic climate.
By way of recompense, and to prove that the editors of this site can talk stats, "advanced metrics" and "the numbers game" as well as any of the so-called "experts" out there (and you know who you are, NS), this post therefore addresses a far more advanced topic: What I believe will be the key statistic in determining the winner of tonight's White Sox - Twins matchup.
After performing exhaustive research and thorough analysis of essentially all relevant methods of measurement -- including "OPS", "SLG", "OBP", "VORP", "WARP", "SNLVR", "Runs Created", "POS", "OPOS", "Moneyballyosity", "Winneritude", "Wanting-it-More-y-ness", " "Dirty-Uniform-Expectancy (ver.2/pants)", and "Caught-Stealing/Player-Height" -- I am prepared to present my findings.
Runs scored, fellow readers, runs scored - I truly believe that tonight's winner will be the team which scores the most total runs in the game. My findings indicate that it will be exceedingly difficult for either team to overcome a significant deficit in runs scored tonight; particularly if such team trails in that department at the end of the contest.
Unfortunately, space constraints do not permit me to "show my work", but I certainly welcome any challenges, questions, comments, etc. from you, the readers. Let me have it but, please, please, please: Be gentle!
SouthSideSox is a community driven site. As such, users are able to express their thoughts and opinions in a FanPost, such as this one, which represents the views of this particular fan, but not necessarily the entire community or SouthSideSox editors.
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Another way of looking at it . . . .
is that the team that allows the fewest runs will win. Puts the focus on pitching rather than hitting.
by VAChisox on Sep 30, 2008 3:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Finally, a fellow traveler on the path of knowledge!
This must’ve been what it was like when Bohr got to meet Einstein.
Or Abbot & Costello got to meet Frankenstein.
by The Actual El Guapo on Sep 30, 2008 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Dracula. Don't forget Dracula.
"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT
by winningugly on Sep 30, 2008 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quick question:
You say:
“My findings indicate that it will be exceedingly difficult for either team to overcome a significant deficit in runs scored tonight…”
I ask:
What is a “significant” deficit? I’d agree if you mean maybe 6 or 7 runs, yet I’m not so confident that the Twinks couldn’t overcome one of 2 or 3.
Please explain or ‘show your work’.
(I’d say submit to peer review, but you are peerless.)
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like your confidence in the Twins.
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Sep 30, 2008 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One more quick question:
Did you also factor in the ‘Special Sauce’?
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, I did something in the Special Sauce, but I'm not sure it counts as "factoring".
I have no idea what that means.
by The Actual El Guapo on Sep 30, 2008 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
special sauce, secret sauce...
another variable that NS uses.
You could look it up…
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
lineups
I hope swish is in left field, he has hit the twins well at the cell!
by BestKosherPolish on Sep 30, 2008 3:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hope you meant to refer to 2009
because otherwise it’s the most obvious f*ing post ever written.
by Dongfang Hong on Sep 30, 2008 3:23 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
haha
I see what you did there.
President of the Al Newman Fan Club
by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
how so? I, for one, appreciate the research put into this
I didn’t have time to do it myself.
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was referring too...
Happy Felsch’s comment to the other post by TAEG.
"Rickey Henderson, pick up the phone, man, it's me... you"
by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's always funniest if you grab 'em by the collar
and methodically explain the chain of thought that led to the joke.
by Dongfang Hong on Sep 30, 2008 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
what's funnier is that you thought it needed explaining
or that my reply to you was taken seriously.
Kids.
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I call bullshit.
but hey… it’s the internet.
"Rickey Henderson, pick up the phone, man, it's me... you"
by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I call Twins fan who is on the wrong blog the past couple days.
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Sep 30, 2008 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Long time reader
first time commenter.
"Rickey Henderson, pick up the phone, man, it's me... you"
by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Poor El Guano...
All the time and effort into this analysis, and the only comments come from Tigers and Twins fans.
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Were not Twins and Tigers fans
we are fans of solid statistical analysis.
"I never get nervous. Baseball consists of two things: hitting and pitching, and we've got both." - Carl Pohlad
by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, turncoat, are you Tigers or Twins?
"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT
by winningugly on Sep 30, 2008 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sssh! Don't disturb the visitors.
Daymonster and DonkeyHong may leave if you start up again.
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Naw, I'll never leave. I love SSS.
Many of the posts are great. Some of the comments are dumb, but what do you expect?
"Rickey Henderson, pick up the phone, man, it's me... you"
by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've already left, having made my yearly post.
by Dongfang Hong on Sep 30, 2008 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Donger, stick around. You usually come up with some good stuff.
"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT
by winningugly on Sep 30, 2008 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Take a look at the
the picture, website, quote, or information. The answer is there.
"Rickey Henderson, pick up the phone, man, it's me... you"
by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was talking to me, not you. "Turncoat" was in reference to a recent hiatus
Enjoy!
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ahh, so I see.
I can admit my mistakes.
"Rickey Henderson, pick up the phone, man, it's me... you"
by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
AEG, please tell me you've either worked for or are about to work for The Onion.
You are a perfect compliment to their style. (It is meant as props, bro.)
"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT
by winningugly on Sep 30, 2008 3:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
complement too!
In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.
by Chiburb on Sep 30, 2008 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, man -- nice of you to say so, but if I'm going to write for anyone,
it’s going to be for these guys: http://rentmychest.com/
by The Actual El Guapo on Sep 30, 2008 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fucking stathead,
Watch a baseball game.
signed,
Joe Morgan
The best baseball player ever
Ceterum censeo Minneainem esse delendam.
by thecip on Sep 30, 2008 4:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope we're consistent tonite
"I don't care about [players' feelings]," manager Ozzie Guillen said before the game. "They don't care about mine. I never heard any player come to me and say, 'How are you feeling today?' Only my wife told me this morning, 'How do you feel?' I feel fine."
by ChicagoPete on Sep 30, 2008 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we can concetrate on consistency, we will win.
But I don’t want to make predictions. You never can know. But I think we’ll win. But we’ll have to remain consistent.
by Dongfang Hong on Sep 30, 2008 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As long as we don't clog the bases we have a shot
"I don't care about [players' feelings]," manager Ozzie Guillen said before the game. "They don't care about mine. I never heard any player come to me and say, 'How are you feeling today?' Only my wife told me this morning, 'How do you feel?' I feel fine."
by ChicagoPete on Sep 30, 2008 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Best bullpen I ever seen...
Ceterum censeo Minneainem esse delendam.
by thecip on Sep 30, 2008 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beginning fo the fucking end.
Pitching and defense win baseball games in September and October.
by ballyb on Sep 30, 2008 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll bet Joe loved the market back then, too.
Pitching and defense win baseball games in September and October.
by ballyb on Sep 30, 2008 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Needs more "Gary Sheffield told me".
by The Actual El Guapo on Sep 30, 2008 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If only we had Robbie Cano
we’d be shoo-ins, but lemme tell you, while this team may be good, they aren’t as good as the teams I played on in Cinci
-Jeeves Life in the Cell
by jeeves on Sep 30, 2008 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
AEG, enough of this stat bullshit
Don’t tell me what kind of runs they score, just tell me when they score ’em.
"I don't care about [players' feelings]," manager Ozzie Guillen said before the game. "They don't care about mine. I never heard any player come to me and say, 'How are you feeling today?' Only my wife told me this morning, 'How do you feel?' I feel fine."
by ChicagoPete on Sep 30, 2008 4:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Ya know, Feisty, back in '67 when we won the pennant, Yaz did not drive in or score a single run the entire year.
But he won MVP unanimously, because those writers back then knew what a lot of folks don’t nowadays: It was when he didn’t drive ‘em in or score ’em, not how many he didn’t score or knock in.
by The Actual El Guapo on Sep 30, 2008 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did the umpires call it where it crossed the plate or where the catcher caught it that year?
Chicago White Sox Examiner—Your What Hurts?
http://www.examiner.com/x-425-Chicago-White-Sox-Examiner
by UribeAuction on Sep 30, 2008 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
lineups
sox with same as yesterday
twins have
span
casilla
mauer
morneau
cuddyer -dh
young
harris
punto
gomez
by BestKosherPolish on Sep 30, 2008 4:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
no kubel?
Is he shitty against lefties or something?
Lurking since 2006
by boyonthedock on Sep 30, 2008 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
vs lhp
Kubel: .232/.330/.374, 3 HR, 15 BB, 22 K, 115 PA
Cuddyer: .246/.372/.308, 12 BB, 14 K, 78 PA
I wish he was in my fantasy league. id bury that cocksucker- KenWo4Life
by Hawk is God on Sep 30, 2008 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who's this Punto guy? Is he new?
by The Actual El Guapo on Sep 30, 2008 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think they traded Erwin Santana for him.
by Dongfang Hong on Sep 30, 2008 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, I'm pretty sure it was Erwin Santana.
Eric Milton is an OF/DH for the Texas Houstons.
by Dongfang Hong on Sep 30, 2008 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ozzie is gutless. Cuddyer is our Swisher.
I hope to christ Wise does well tonight, but I want to see Swisher in there. Fuck.
by dantesox on Sep 30, 2008 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Should Be a Fantastic Game tonight
Just Wanted to Stop by and Wish the White Sox the Best Of Luck in the game tonight.
Sincerely
Twins Territory
by Tony_O on Sep 30, 2008 4:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
tell me of gods and punto...
Ceterum censeo Minneainem esse delendam.
by thecip on Sep 30, 2008 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
sox lineup
Aparicio, ss
Fox, 2b
Landis, cf
Lollar, c
Cash, 1b
Smith, rf
Callison, lf
Phillips, 3b
Pierce, p
by RoyEgan on Sep 30, 2008 5:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Just got home from a thrilling day reading case notes
I’m ready to watch some baseball
by 815Sox on Sep 30, 2008 5:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
twins np right now. Lots of people in black and a few annoying twins fans. Playing music with a “black” theme. Paint it black. Black magic woman. Go sox!
by azzy on Sep 30, 2008 5:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Say it loud, I'm black and proud?
Chip, chip, chip, chip.
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on Sep 30, 2008 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
whoa-oa black betty
bam-a-lam
I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.
by thatshortkid on Sep 30, 2008 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Black Dog.
Black Velvet.
"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT
by winningugly on Sep 30, 2008 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I'm black and I'm proud."
If you quote the Godfather of Soul, keep it real.
What about “Black” by Pearl Jam? That ought to get you in the mood.
"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT
by winningugly on Sep 30, 2008 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hope i speak for everyone when i say
fuck pearl jam.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Sep 30, 2008 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
just speak for yourself you little indie twot ;-)
by onlysoxfaninboston on Sep 30, 2008 5:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's on yo
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Sep 30, 2008 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aw, just 'cause he's a Cub fan
doesn’t mean the music sucks. Old stuff is great. Old, but great.
"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT
by winningugly on Sep 30, 2008 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
PS How about a gamethread? WTF?
"I suck... the Sox don’t." reply actions 25 recs
by SSH2005 on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 AM EDT
by winningugly on Sep 30, 2008 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
dude, i think that's first time i've seen you curse on this site, even though you used an acronym
the season finale must be getting to you
by onlysoxfaninboston on Sep 30, 2008 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
eff (something)? mother-effer?
I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.
by thatshortkid on Sep 30, 2008 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
where the hell is The Pornstar Managing Editor?
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Sep 30, 2008 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
black angel's death song?
by vu
by onlysoxfaninboston on Sep 30, 2008 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice
Wish I was there.
Hello from back home (Rockford)
by 815Sox on Sep 30, 2008 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.
by thatshortkid on Sep 30, 2008 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
fuck yeah, great ref
although i like nations more. if i had a time machine, would love to travel back and witness the makings of this fine album…
tensing up before the game, but brotha’s gonna work it out i know…
by onlysoxfaninboston on Sep 30, 2008 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of Kenwo
I had to tell a father visiting his kids to stop trying to talk to me about wrestling and focus on his child
by 815Sox on Sep 30, 2008 5:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I have no idea about who the hell he was talking about
You know you are a winner when you see your kids 3 hours a week and your trying to talk to the case manager about wrestling
by 815Sox on Sep 30, 2008 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.
by thatshortkid on Sep 30, 2008 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
dude, that was like the worst metallica album, hands down, i hope it doesn't jinx our sox
by onlysoxfaninboston on Sep 30, 2008 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
doesn't paulie use 'enter sandman'?
I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.
by thatshortkid on Sep 30, 2008 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like least triples.
TAEG, you make me laugh. I get stressed leading into AND ON EVERY FUCKING PITCH in big games.
So TAEG, win or lose, I want an equally funny followup tomorrow.
And as Captain Stubby and the Buccaneers always say, “Let’s go, go, go White Sox.”
Pitching and defense win baseball games in September and October.
by ballyb on Sep 30, 2008 6:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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