Revisiting Our Gavin Floyd Projection

by The Cheat on Oct 14, 2009 9:08 PM CDT Comment 47 comments

The early release of Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections reminded me of the time I put in building a better projection for Gavin Floyd. At the time, there was some general discontent over the projections of some of the White Sox pitchers, and Floyd in particular.

Rather than open it up to the masses for one of our Community Projections, I decided to take the opportunity to scratch the surface of how a projection was built in the first place, to see why we felt other projections were missing the boat on Floyd, and finally, to build a projection of my own.

So how did I do? Judge for yourself...

	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Gavin Floyd	30	193.0	178	93	87	21	59	163	4.06	1.23	7.6	2.75	0.98
Cheat's Projection	30	192	199	107	97	28	61	153	4.55	1.35	7.15	2.85	1.33

Floyd bested his 90th percentile PECOTA projections in most categories, and his 75th in virtually all of them. And while he exceeded my own projection across the board, by applying some critical thinking to his previous rate stats, I was able to come up with a projection much closer to the actual result.

Now the point of revisiting this projection wasn't simply to pat myself on the back. After all, you can easily browse the archives and find that I picked the Indians to win the division and thought the Tigers were the most likely team in baseball to be in fire sale mode by May. I was also "done" with Floyd by the time he turned it around starting the night of our outing. The point is that we were able to sift through the noise of Gavin's unsustainable hot start in '08 and rocky minor league career to find a better approximation of his true talent.

Without diving into another spreadsheet again, I'd say that Floyd is unlikely to best his '09 numbers in '10. His HR/9, in particular, seems like an outlier; but I'd say he's a good bet to beat his his '10 projections, though ZiPS is the only one available thus far.

0 recs | Comment 47 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I'm far more confident in Floyd than most, it seems like

I’ve bought into the reports that he was tipping his pitches in his first eight starts—and if you look at his numbers after those first eight starts, they’re very encouraging: 2.97 ERA, 128/36 K/BB, .610 OPS against. I like that Floyd cut down on his fly balls in ‘09, so I’m not sure his about league-average HR/9 is that big of an outlier.

That’s just my opinion, though. I thought Floyd was going to be worse than your projection this year, after all.

Chicago White Sox Examiner — I wish I could cuss right now.

by UribeAuction on Oct 14, 2009 9:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Floyd only threw his 4-seam fastball 42% of the time this year

His use of the 4-seam has decreased noticeably since joining the Sox. Not surprisingly, his HR/9 has similarly trended downwards. Not throwing the fastball means he’s throwing a pitch more likely to induce ground balls whether it be slider, cutter, or change. On a related note, according to PitchFX Floyd had more downward movement on all ’09 pitches compared to ’08 except the cutter which had no change. If Floyd distributes his pitches in a similar fashion next season, I would expect his GB/FB and HR/9 ratios to settle around ’09 levels

by 3E8 on Oct 14, 2009 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

his slider and curve are both great pitches

and as long as he can put them in the zone, he rules.

2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper

by colintj on Oct 14, 2009 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

FanGraphs says his curve

was the eighth-best among starters last year (2.66 wCB/C) and his slider was in the top 35. Anybody have specific strike percentages for those two pitches?

Chicago White Sox Examiner — I wish I could cuss right now.

by UribeAuction on Oct 15, 2009 8:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I heard he learned how to utilize his curve ball much more

and since he throws it two mph faster than the average starting pitcher curve ball (81-79) , that helps him dominate

by blackoutsox on Oct 15, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone remember as big a firesale as the Pirates had this year?

"Awarding a difference maker on the field - and in the community at large - has always been baseball's version of a home run." ~Stephen A. Smith

by Carbiner on Oct 14, 2009 10:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

marlins.

pick your year.

by larry on Oct 14, 2009 10:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

White flag, anyone?

I was a Catholic boy, Redeemed through pain, not through joy - Jim Carroll

by winningugly on Oct 15, 2009 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gavin impressed me more than anyone this season.

Yes, even more than Pods.

"I heard 55,000 people screaming so I felt like the ball got through," Punto said. "I wanted to dig a hole, crawl inside it and hide. It’s embarrassing. That can’t happen."

by homesickalien on Oct 15, 2009 10:10 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

best player on the team according to FG

2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper

by colintj on Oct 15, 2009 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And to think! They don't even factor in BHB.

"I heard 55,000 people screaming so I felt like the ball got through," Punto said. "I wanted to dig a hole, crawl inside it and hide. It’s embarrassing. That can’t happen."

by homesickalien on Oct 15, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Enough of your tangible intangibles

"Awarding a difference maker on the field - and in the community at large - has always been baseball's version of a home run." ~Stephen A. Smith

by Carbiner on Oct 15, 2009 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Now the point of revisiting this projection wasn't simply to pat myself on the back."

(Engulfs self.)

I was a Catholic boy, Redeemed through pain, not through joy - Jim Carroll

by winningugly on Oct 15, 2009 10:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Its not gavins fault

that we cant give him or danks any run support

YOU CAN PUT IT ON THE BOARD YES!
www.reverbnation.com/czheckproductions

by Czheck on Oct 15, 2009 12:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

There's still time to run out and place your bets, crew.

Phil Rogers NLCS pick: Philadelphia Phillies in 7

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/chi-nlcs-matchupsoct14,0,5717858.story

by ballyb on Oct 15, 2009 2:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Balloons - is the kid in or not?

by hoodlight on Oct 15, 2009 2:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Negative. Landed - no kid.

"I heard 55,000 people screaming so I felt like the ball got through," Punto said. "I wanted to dig a hole, crawl inside it and hide. It’s embarrassing. That can’t happen."

by homesickalien on Oct 15, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He ascended into heaven

while up there.

by ballyb on Oct 15, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

kid was nevr in it I reckon, - ran off and hid when he realised he'd released his dads creation

they’ll find him in a cupboard or something

by hoodlight on Oct 15, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's down the street at the local tavern.

"I heard 55,000 people screaming so I felt like the ball got through," Punto said. "I wanted to dig a hole, crawl inside it and hide. It’s embarrassing. That can’t happen."

by homesickalien on Oct 15, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder how many people would buy a six-year-old named Falcon a beer

my guess is a lot.

Chicago White Sox Examiner — I wish I could cuss right now.

by UribeAuction on Oct 15, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

In Colorado, it probably even exceeds your guess

though Fort Collins isn’t anywhere near as liberal as Boulder.

Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
SouthSideSox on Facebook

by The Cheat on Oct 15, 2009 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

In Boulder they'd give him beer AND weed.

Chicago White Sox Examiner — I wish I could cuss right now.

by UribeAuction on Oct 15, 2009 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is one amazing story.

Can’t stop laughing

"Awarding a difference maker on the field - and in the community at large - has always been baseball's version of a home run." ~Stephen A. Smith

by Carbiner on Oct 15, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fascists

“He’s a great kid,” Friedland said of Falcon. “We see him a lot and they come over and they’re always friendly.”

"Awarding a difference maker on the field - and in the community at large - has always been baseball's version of a home run." ~Stephen A. Smith

by Carbiner on Oct 15, 2009 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

These men are nihilists. There is nothing to be afraid of.

"I heard 55,000 people screaming so I felt like the ball got through," Punto said. "I wanted to dig a hole, crawl inside it and hide. It’s embarrassing. That can’t happen."

by homesickalien on Oct 15, 2009 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

/b/ is on the case

Now, this is a story all about how
My life got flown all around
And I liked to take a minute
Just sit right there
I’ll tell you how I flew in a ballon filled with hot air.

In… west Colorado born and raised
in the backyard is where I spent most of my days
soarin and swoopin all cool
and flyin a balloon instead of bein in school
when a couple of tethers
where up to no good
made me fly up out my neighborhood
Went on one little flight and my dad got scared
said “My sons in that basket up in the air”

So.. whistled for a chopper and when it came near
The side said ‘Channel 9’ and it had guys in there
If anything i could say that this situation was rare,
but i thought ’ ah forget it, jump out, no care.’

I landed on the ground from about 7 or 8
and yelled to the news crew “yo homes, find me later”
I was finally there,
to sit in my basket and the king of hot air.

Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
SouthSideSox on Facebook

by The Cheat on Oct 15, 2009 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

++

moar

2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper

by colintj on Oct 16, 2009 12:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The fact that he's still alive makes this story all the more ridiculous

Yay mainstream media

"Awarding a difference maker on the field - and in the community at large - has always been baseball's version of a home run." ~Stephen A. Smith

by Carbiner on Oct 16, 2009 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Totally shoulda died.

"I heard 55,000 people screaming so I felt like the ball got through," Punto said. "I wanted to dig a hole, crawl inside it and hide. It’s embarrassing. That can’t happen."

by homesickalien on Oct 16, 2009 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ascended to heaven damnit!

"Awarding a difference maker on the field - and in the community at large - has always been baseball's version of a home run." ~Stephen A. Smith

by Carbiner on Oct 16, 2009 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hoodie FTW!

Not a cupboard, but the little shitstain was found in a box in the attic.

"I heard 55,000 people screaming so I felt like the ball got through," Punto said. "I wanted to dig a hole, crawl inside it and hide. It’s embarrassing. That can’t happen."

by homesickalien on Oct 15, 2009 5:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

This will be a LONG offseason.

Fuck that kid.

I was a Catholic boy, Redeemed through pain, not through joy - Jim Carroll

by winningugly on Oct 15, 2009 6:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

been in semi-lurker mode since the season ended... my midnight question is this.

why don’t fangraphs and baseball-reference have downloadable data ala retrosheet? xml files would be greeeeeeatt for ppl that want to do batch calculations.

what happens to SSS during the offseason?

by Jackkoho on Oct 16, 2009 12:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i think they both do csv

2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper

by colintj on Oct 16, 2009 12:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Southside Cheat, praise the Lord he's once again inspired

Took two weeks to get the taste of that season out of your mouth eh?

Nice write up, next year should be very interesting – Peavy, Danks, Buerhle, Floyd.
Yowza

No animals were harmed during the making of this comment.

by ChicagoPete on Oct 16, 2009 5:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

What did the editors get Cheat for Boss' Day?

If you guys forgot, I recommend a stripper(female) be sent to Holstein’s around 530.

i'm celebrating the slaughter of the indigenous peoples of the western hemisphere.
what the fuck are you doing? - larry

by Scotty Ballgame on Oct 16, 2009 9:46 AM CDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

But back to this stupid Falcon kid....

Anyone think that his crazy parents staged this stunt?
I mean – they are former reality TVers, which signifies blatant media whorism in the first place.
Then, the kid’s in a box in the attic? Seriously? wut?
Our drunken Englishman could’ve told you that, ya dumb fucks, nobody checked the attic? You got worldwide media involved before you checked the attic? Based on the word of ANOTHER CHILD??? Way to go, Courtney Love. Now why don’t you idiots publish a book about Falcon’s flight that never was - make it a rrreeeall tear-jerker about the mindfuckery that is having media-whore parents who put you on a TV show to show the nation how fucked up your life is!
Next thing you know, Falcon’s gonna be auditioning for American Idol, singing Nsync in a key that isn’t recognizable to the human ear; and when Simon Cowell rips him a new asshole, and once again the entire nation is laughing at his expense, and he sobs as he leaves the audition room, finding out for the first time, with all of America watching, that he doesn’t actually “have a beautiful voice” like mom and dad always said…..at that moment, you can point back to yesterday, and think they shoulda just listened to hoodie – the goddam kid was in the attic.
And then someone will swoop in and give that kid his first hit of crack. It’s the inevitable next step in his life anyway and he’ll need some support after finally realizing that he can no longer trust Mom and Dad for shit.

"I heard 55,000 people screaming so I felt like the ball got through," Punto said. "I wanted to dig a hole, crawl inside it and hide. It’s embarrassing. That can’t happen."

by homesickalien on Oct 16, 2009 10:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Dying isn't so bad after all

"Awarding a difference maker on the field - and in the community at large - has always been baseball's version of a home run." ~Stephen A. Smith

by Carbiner on Oct 16, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you see that the kid vomited on two national morning shows

Lends credence to the theory he was hidng out in the local tavern

i'm celebrating the slaughter of the indigenous peoples of the western hemisphere.
what the fuck are you doing? - larry

by Scotty Ballgame on Oct 16, 2009 10:23 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Oh geebus, someone has thought this...

And the boy is still a dumbass.

"I heard 55,000 people screaming so I felt like the ball got through," Punto said. "I wanted to dig a hole, crawl inside it and hide. It’s embarrassing. That can’t happen."

by homesickalien on Oct 16, 2009 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs