2010 Bill James Projections: White Sox Hitters
by The Cheat on Oct 27, 2009 2:20 PM CDT
105 comments
The good people at ACTA Sports provided me a sneak preview at the 2010 Bill James projections, which will be made available the public the the 2010 Bill James Handbook (available next week).
James tends to have the most optimistic projections of any of the major forecasters, specifically for young players (read: unestablished players, i.e. Flowers)
The Sox will be in very good shape next year if they get that type of production from Quentin and Rios.
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Those projections:
That would be pretty sweet.
by 67WMAQ on Oct 27, 2009 2:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow...those are nice.
I could even live with Pods numbers in LF (if we move Q! to RF)…but we still need a defensive replacement/bench player that could fill in and cover both spots.
If Q! and Rios give us those numbers, we should be fine.
Getz at 99 games doesn’t excite me.
Savior looks pitty goo too.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 27, 2009 2:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i think rios will hit more than 16 homers.
also, where’s lillibridge? my projections have him with 5 rbi next year. he is moving into his prime years after all.
the suck is not just a river in ireland.
by BuehrleMan on Oct 27, 2009 3:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Q will hit 30HR ... during the rehab stints in the minors
Lupe, release the balloons!
by LT_sox_fan on Oct 27, 2009 3:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Was just going to say...
The most optimistic projection here is the 610 or so PA by Q!
"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "
by Chiburb on Oct 27, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
1 stolen base for konerko.
the suck is not just a river in ireland.
by BuehrleMan on Oct 27, 2009 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd bet money that if Savior plays 155 games and has an OBP of .360
that he steals more than 10 bases. I’d say 15-20.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 27, 2009 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guess the caught stealings are the "Ozzie is dumb" factor
As displayed in the formula Ozzie = stupid person
"Awarding a difference maker on the field - and in the community at large - has always been baseball's version of a home run." ~Stephen A. Smith
by Carbiner on Oct 27, 2009 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and you tag 50 or so hbp if that's the case
i'm alex rios' last fan
by onlysoxfaninboston on Oct 27, 2009 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone have the projections for 2008?
How acurate has Big Bill been when handicapping the Sox? Flowers looks pretty optimistic to me, also.
And Christ we need to get rid of Dye. OPS slightly above .800 is worse than Thomer. Would he still be mostly in RF with Thome DH’ing?
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 27, 2009 3:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the help.
I searched and found KenWo projections, Wiz projections. No Bill James 2009 projections for the Sox via the search function.
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 27, 2009 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it took me approximately 4 second using 'bill james'
you try, grampa.
by larry on Oct 27, 2009 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
picking on the women, poor and now the old farts...
all in a days work! Nice job! (I touched on the gay community for you, so I think we’re covered for the day) Now I can go home.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 27, 2009 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So much for refining the search by adding specific info.
Keep it simple stupid, eh?
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 27, 2009 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Men beware
this “Little Buddy” GPS device was obviously patented by a female to keep track of all us men and our whereabouts 24/7. Keep an eye out for this device in your wallet, briefcase, shoe, eyeglasses, sox cap and flask.
This is a red alert!
http://www.suntimes.com/technology/1847999,CST-NWS-tracker27.article
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 27, 2009 4:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
jesus christ thats a horrible thing.
i mean i never go anywhere exciting anyway but what if a boss plants it on you? bad news.
Kenwo4life=ratings
by KenWo4LiFe on Oct 27, 2009 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
just use an equally legal jammer
Kind of a shame the Rockies aren't around to win it for Balloon Boy
-billyok
by blackoutsox on Oct 27, 2009 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did he get banned? A shame. JAMMER was one of those rare gems of a guy.
His discourse on the subject of managerial acumen and general capacity of a Venezuelan former MLB player (now manager), was a must-read.
by homesickalien on Oct 28, 2009 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can only pray
that thome doesnt come back
YOU CAN PUT IT ON THE BOARD YES!
www.reverbnation.com/czheckproductions
by Czheck on Oct 27, 2009 5:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i know what you mean, i'd rather have pods dh
i'm alex rios' last fan
by onlysoxfaninboston on Oct 27, 2009 5:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Youz Crazy Mista
Thome was on pace for a quite acceptable season with the Sox this year he had over 70RBI and 25+ HR. I’ll take those stats any year.
Green and Gold / Black and White
by OznCoop on Oct 27, 2009 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
whoosh
i'm alex rios' last fan
by onlysoxfaninboston on Oct 28, 2009 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love the Bill James handbook.
Its great.
In Minnesota, when 11,000 people are in the Dome, you feel like you are at an especially depressing demolition derby. -Joe Posnanski
by e-gus on Oct 27, 2009 6:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
he got some of my money.
the suck is not just a river in ireland.
by BuehrleMan on Oct 27, 2009 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Somewhat related
here’s a link to some of the findings from the playing time projections some of you participated in last year…
Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
SouthSideSox on Facebook
by The Cheat on Oct 27, 2009 7:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Any guesses as to what a league average line would be?
Does he calculate that in the handbook?
And that Flowers projection is a stark contrast from his ZiPS projection.
by CWSKeith on Oct 27, 2009 7:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
James is usually high on the young guys.
he was the only one who nailed the break-out by Adam Lind for example.
In Minnesota, when 11,000 people are in the Dome, you feel like you are at an especially depressing demolition derby. -Joe Posnanski
by e-gus on Oct 27, 2009 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you take the hitter and pitcher projections, it’s impossible to reconcile an offensive environment. Generally speaking, if you have a list of the James, ZiPS, CHONE, and PECOTA projections, the James projections will have the highest OPS or the lowest ERA the vast majority of the time.
--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com
by D.Szymborski on Oct 27, 2009 8:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hand of God > Computers
"Awarding a difference maker on the field - and in the community at large - has always been baseball's version of a home run." ~Stephen A. Smith
by Carbiner on Oct 27, 2009 10:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well if you want to get technical
several of the Sox players would have to be moved for these projections to work, there isnt enough games for them all to play that much.
I think this explains why, 2009 handbook, page 464, specifically regarding Brandon Wood:
“What we are really trying to say is that if he gets a chance to play, that’s what we expect him to hit. If he doesn’t get a chance to play, well… that’s not my department.”
In Minnesota, when 11,000 people are in the Dome, you feel like you are at an especially depressing demolition derby. -Joe Posnanski
by e-gus on Oct 27, 2009 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No Josh Fields...
projection? I’ll just pencil him in for 30 HR and 100 RBI.
by palehose67 on Oct 28, 2009 8:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
To think, if Beckham was a decent fielding SS that'd be an MVP year.
"Awarding a difference maker on the field - and in the community at large - has always been baseball's version of a home run." ~Stephen A. Smith
by Carbiner on Oct 28, 2009 9:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
what's to say he isn't?
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 28, 2009 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everything I've heard is that he is decent
to above average at SS. To paraphrase our good friend Mr. Law, Beckham has slow reaction time but fantastic instincts. This means he’s probably a better defender at SS then at 3B.
Also should be better at 2b then 3b.
by coffeepac on Oct 28, 2009 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How can somebody have slow reaction time but good instincts?
You would think reacting quickly would be part of the instinctual package.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on Oct 28, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is moving in the proper direction
even before the ball is pitched. He just takes a long time to get there. ;)
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 28, 2009 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How dare you question Keith Law
The man-genius who decided it was a bad move to not trade Jose Cruz Jr. for David Wright after 7 years of hindsight.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Oct 28, 2009 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
from a pre-draft chat
SportsNation Keith Law: (1:48 PM ET ) I think he’s a shortstop. He’s got unbelievable instincts over there, so while his pure “range” tool isn’t better than average, it plays up because he’s on top of the situation and puts himself in the right place to make the play. I saw him do it a few times at the SEC tournament. […]
http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/archive/index.php?t-64257.html
He’s said the same thing several times since then. I don’t think Mr. Law got a chance to see becks in the minors, so he hasn’t seen him at SS since college. Which means this scouting report is as up-to-date as law has.
And you are correct, I mis-typed. Beckham would be considered ‘slow’, as in foot speed which is more important at 3b then SS.
by coffeepac on Oct 28, 2009 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
white sox will play exhibition in charlotte
Official Announcement: Chicago White Sox will play exhibition game at Knights Stadium on April 1 at 7 PM. Tickets available December 1st.
by larry on Oct 28, 2009 10:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thinking about the game tonight
being played with 2 of my least favorite teams and only two things are giving me any solace.
1) FNS is batting a paltry .125 in the postseason and the yankees newsletter is saying “killing the yankees”
www.bleacherreport.com/articles/279814-nick-swisher-is-killing-the-yankees
2) Mr. “Pitty goo” will be providing entertaining, yet, probably mostly unrecognizable color commentary for all of the games.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 28, 2009 10:30 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Pooty Goo.
Pooty goo. Fer Chrissakes. Poor Jim.
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 28, 2009 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Poor Miguel Cairo
Guy gets left off the WS Roster…what a crock!
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 28, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, just so the phillies could put that wifebeater myers on the roster.
when i first heard that i thought they were doing it to avoid the ex-cub factor, but it still is not enough. phillies will have 3, yanks will have 2, therefore the phillies are fucked. they should replace bako too if they want to give themselves a chance.
the suck is not just a river in ireland.
by BuehrleMan on Oct 28, 2009 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you counting Girardi?
As Mgr. he counts for at least 1.5 cubs.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 28, 2009 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
fuck joe girardi.
the suck is not just a river in ireland.
by BuehrleMan on Oct 28, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My last bowel movement counted as 1.75 cubs....
You look him square in the eye and tell him "Yes Sir, the check is in the mail"
by DrEmilioLizardo on Oct 28, 2009 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
must have just been some tiny rabbit turds...
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 28, 2009 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
*shaking head sadly*
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on Oct 28, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Off subject
I know some of you are runners, so I have a question for you.
My feet supinate (or underpronate) – therefore I put a lot of pressure on the outside of my feet. The outside heals on all my shoes wear out relatively quickly. I have been running my whole life, but now that I am getting older I am noticing more pain in my heals after running.
Question is, do any of you know a good running shoe that might alleviate some of this pressure?
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 28, 2009 12:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
yes there is store in leeds
called up and running they film you on treadmill and then tell you best running shoes to get. you must have sometimes similar overt there?
by hoodlight on Oct 28, 2009 12:33 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Fleet Feet
I was trying to save a trip over there – but that might be the best option. Thanks
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 28, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't done the treadmill filming,
but a couple friends have, and they were very happy with it. Good luck. But let’s be honest, some of the discomfort is simply older age.
by palehose67 on Oct 28, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I'll try that
My wife did and it helped her. You’re right, a lot of it is me getting older. But, the pain has gotten pretty bad on my left heal – if I am getting out of bed or sitting for awhile and then stand up, I almost fall over. Takes me walking around for awhile to get it worked out. Worse if I have run the day before. Maybe I should call Q!?
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 28, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heel.
Heel. If you are going into FF please know how to spell. ;) And you might have the vestiges of plantar facsciitis. Rest if that’s the case.
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 28, 2009 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
pot calling the kettle black
led zeffelin
I thought I might have that too. I have rested (no running for a week) but it comes back. I think it is my shoes.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 28, 2009 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Have you been rubbing...
Q’s feet a lot lately? Maybe you caught plantar facsciitis from him. Perhaps the winter-treadmill running season will lessen some of the pounding on your feet, enless of course the winter doesn’t stop you from outside running.
by palehose67 on Oct 28, 2009 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I usually run on the treadmill, exclusively.
I live in the City and outside running consists mainly of concrete, which isn’t good at all.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 28, 2009 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ahem. I believe it was Zellelin.
Stretch it out, Bobby.
by homesickalien on Oct 28, 2009 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for the correction. I'm sure zeffelin has been used before as well.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 28, 2009 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
TY for your accuracy, HSA. You DO care.
I type like hell, BSS. You spell like hell. Or heal.
Concrete is not horrible. I’m running 18 miles Sunday on brick/concrete and have no foot/knee/shin issues. If you don’t run a lot and are just starting out don’t push so quickly – go to FF, ask questions, get measured (not in the pants, sicko), and listen.
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 28, 2009 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
pro-longed running on concrete has long term effects to your body
It is the worst surface you can run on – there is no absorption. Stating you don’t have any pain now doesn’t mean your body won’t begin to show the wear of this running in the future. I by no stretch of the imagination am an expert in running, but have read some articles on running surfaces along with pure common sense and come to the conclusion that it would be better for me to run on any surface besides concrete.
I understand that almost all races have to be done on concrete, and I also understand that to train for most of these you need to acclimate yourself to that surface. But, if I am just running to stay healthy as part of my workout routine – I would rather run on a track or a treadmill.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 28, 2009 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am not saying it's a great surface.
I’m just saying after 14+ years of solid running, at age 50+, and being bowlegged/pronating like a mofo I have no structural issues from running on concrete that are not heredity-based.
Treadmills tend to tear up my shins, for some reason. YMMV, as Scrooge McDuck (the pantsless one) says.
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 28, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
I love running outside, but ice concerns me too much in the winter. I turn to the treadmills then, but my shins always seem to take a much harder beating outside than on the treadmills.
by palehose67 on Oct 28, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really.
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 28, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "
by Chiburb on Oct 28, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shouldn't you be getting your Game Face on?
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 28, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am brotha...finishing up in about an hour
Then going to a bar on the UES with fiddy cent beers until first pitch.
GAME ON SON!
by Q!'s Qrew on Oct 28, 2009 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
PS...I will not be in tonight's GT, so rest Easy :-P
by Q!'s Qrew on Oct 28, 2009 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
good.
Im tired of seeing pro-NYY crap here.
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey.
The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
- Phillies pitcher Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary
by e-gus on Oct 28, 2009 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 28, 2009 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would rather run on burning embers than on a treadmill
its a fucking waste of time
by Daniel Berlyn on Oct 28, 2009 11:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's been proven that
those running on burning embers run much faster and get a better workout.
If the world was perfect, it wouldn't be -- Yogi Berra
by mick10 on Oct 29, 2009 6:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Asics is what I use.
Fleet Feet is a good suggestion. Go talk with someone there who knows shoes, not some 18 year old kid.
So the wife has motivated you, eh? That’s how I ran my first marathon – after she did hers in January, 2001 here I did Chicago in October the same year. (However, I got her into running. She just took it farther than I did.)
Good on you, mate.
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 28, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am like you
I got her into running. I have been running for a while, but never had the will, time, or want to run a marathon. I’ve done half marathons, and that has been about my max. I enjoy working out much more than running. But, as part of my routine I try and run 7-10 miles a week at the gym. I would be more of the triathlon type instead of the pure running type.
Thanks for the tip. I’ll sway over to fleet feet this weekend and hopefully they can help.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 28, 2009 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's a Fleet Feet out in one of those burbs
They can do a nice job of getting you into the right shoe. Brooks makes some great models for motion control. You might also want to look into inserts like Superfeet.
by Sox-35th on Oct 28, 2009 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Schererville Indiana, or 2 in Chicago: Old Town and Lincoln Square.
No burbs.
"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "
by Chiburb on Oct 28, 2009 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
just need to stretch, bobby
Blasting one into a Christmas ham like her is so passe. - RWShow
by BoeJouma on Oct 28, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe you just need to face whatever it is you're running from
signature
by billyok on Oct 28, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 28, 2009 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Moobs!
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 28, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
everyone's favorite
Blasting one into a Christmas ham like her is so passe. - RWShow
by BoeJouma on Oct 28, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Remember, there is no easy way out
nor is there a shortcut home
signature
by billyok on Oct 28, 2009 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Get insoles. They're about 20 bucks.
http://running.zappos.com/runningfitguide.zhtml
Apparently, supination calls for neutral cushioning. Anything else would probably mess you up. Also, ice.
by Daniel Berlyn on Oct 28, 2009 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
thank you sir
heading to Fleet Feet tomorrow to get my feet checked out….
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 29, 2009 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good feedback, DB.
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 29, 2009 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
our team SLG would be .443
i could handle that i suppose.
Blasting one into a Christmas ham like her is so passe. - RWShow
by BoeJouma on Oct 28, 2009 3:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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