2010 Bill James Projections: White Sox Pitchers
by The Cheat on Oct 30, 2009 10:00 AM CDT
61 comments
Unfortunately, there's no projection for Daniel Hudson, who I have pegged as a league average starter (a #4) next year.
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It looks like James' Over - optimism with the Sox hitters was evened out with
an extremely pessemistic view of WhiteSox pitchers. ?Gavin Floyd 4.59ERA?
Green and Gold / Black and White
by OznCoop on Oct 30, 2009 10:13 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
I take the unders on he and Dank’s overall numbers, especially ERA.
by dantesox on Oct 30, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd agree
Also, I would be tickled to death if Linebrink did anything close to those projections.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 30, 2009 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually think it's possible.
He had real good velocity most of the year, so I don’t think he was hurt and showed good arm strength. I wouldn’t bet the ranch, but I’m probably not as fatalistic as most.
by dantesox on Oct 30, 2009 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't it be something if he pulled off a cliff Politte, 2005-like?
by dantesox on Oct 30, 2009 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You think Uncle Cliffey had some help?
by dantesox on Oct 30, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's hard to say - unless you have knowledge.
both he and hermanson kind of fell off a cliff, but both had injuries.
I think Foulke and Koch had help.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 30, 2009 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah. billy had a lot of help to rack up 4.5 walks per 9.
koch sucked. it was a terrible trade. when you walk that many batters you will not be successful as a pitcher.
by larry on Oct 30, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
good point
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 30, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't know about that.
Sox did get Cotts back for the one year of Foulke they traded away. Now, that one year of Foulke was pretty sweet, but you could make an argument that Cotts’s 2005 was better than Foulke’s 2003.
(Not saying it would be a good argument or extend beyond “ERA+” and “World Champs, baby!”, but the point is that Foulke’s contract in exchange for Koch’s plus Cotts’s first six years isn’t that one-sided in retrospect.)
by BridgeportJoe on Oct 30, 2009 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
draft picks.
and neal cotts has negative value for his career. just like koch did, at a much higher level of magnitude, for his white sox career. the trade stunk when it was made and doesn’t smell any better with hindsight. you don’t trade for pitchers with that record of poor control, particularly when they are paid what koch was.
by larry on Oct 30, 2009 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
would have thrown 86 without it.
as we all should know by now, you don’t have to be throwing 99 or hitting 50 home runs to be using.
by larry on Oct 30, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
sure
but you have to have at least one suspicious observation…rumor, body change, hat size, performance change, power increase, fastball, whatever you want.
by Hatchetm on Oct 30, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he played major league baseball.
there you go. guessing who was using is a silly game.
by larry on Oct 30, 2009 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
baseball itself is silly
but its still fun.
by Hatchetm on Oct 30, 2009 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
2004 red sox
begins getting injured all of a sudden
his velocity drops from 90mph to 80-85mph suddenly
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 30, 2009 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
knee surgery at 33?
dude, you’re even more suspicious than me.
by Hatchetm on Oct 30, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
two knee surgeries and elbow surgery
he was linked to the 2004 red sox team that it seems like was all on PED’s. When testing started he kind of fell off the map.
I’m not trying to start any rumors, but I have always thought that he was on something. Just my opinion and I’ll leave it at that.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 30, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
certainly could be...
i’d guess 35-50% of the league was on something. now, with the rigorous testing program its probably more like 34-49%.
by Hatchetm on Oct 30, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd for trooth
...take your hobbit circle jerk to another thread
by larry on May 18, 2009 8:58 PM PDT
by rhythm on Oct 30, 2009 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he had no control of anything besides his 90-92mph
fastball that didn’t have any movement.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 30, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty much.
But I think there were a lot of games where he threw harder than that.
by dantesox on Oct 30, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
his inability to locate pitches is the problem.
how hard he throws when doing so doesn’t really matter.
by larry on Oct 30, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know that.
I’m just saying hopefully it’s more a matter ofechanics, confidence….etc rather than health, the thinking being there’s a greater probability he can overcome those vs. health.
by dantesox on Oct 30, 2009 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still hating on Gavin,
though Freddy and Jake look very optimistic.
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 30, 2009 10:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Read it how you will
but if his W-L records hold true, we are a 74-88 team. ouch
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 30, 2009 10:49 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Us having only a half of a fifth starter probably doesn't help the win column.
If Hudson is average in the 15 starts that Freddy is apparently not making I’d imagine that helps.
by Grinder in Training on Oct 30, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, I didn't notice that.
Lets hope it is hudson and not Carrasco spot starting all year again.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 30, 2009 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
even though I like carrasco and his rubber arm
I’d pine for Hudson a little better.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Oct 30, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But from where will the other 18 wins come?
I see 5 starters, so maybe Hudson gets them in replacement after Garcia’s 6 wins?
Sheesh.
"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "
by Chiburb on Oct 30, 2009 10:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's early granted but wont Hudson start out of the bullpen
in the long relief role. At least I have him penciled in there.
Also where’s Mahoney!? Dont you have to substitute him for Dotel?
i'm celebrating the slaughter of the indigenous peoples of the western hemisphere.
what the fuck are you doing? - larry
by Scotty Ballgame on Oct 30, 2009 11:01 AM CDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
I don't put too much weight into these projections.
Examples :
He has Thortonn WIP jumping up to 1.27 when it was 1.00 and 1.08 the last two years.
He has Garcia being better than Danks, Floyd and Buehrle?
He predicts Linebrink will be the third best reliever.
It appears the projections are more weighted towards lifetime averages than the performance in recent years.
by MrBungle on Oct 30, 2009 11:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Blasphemy!
Bill James is GOD. HE. CAN. NOT. BE. WRONG!!!!
Except for maybe the missing 20 games in his projection. ;)
...take your hobbit circle jerk to another thread
by larry on May 18, 2009 8:58 PM PDT
by rhythm on Oct 30, 2009 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wins. Missing 20 wins. Fixed.
"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "
by Chiburb on Oct 30, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oops, thanks for clarifying.
...take your hobbit circle jerk to another thread
by larry on May 18, 2009 8:58 PM PDT
by rhythm on Oct 30, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ozzie Gets those wins, becuz heez a gud mahnagher....
There's Your Zagnut!!!
by DrEmilioLizardo on Nov 3, 2009 4:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe the man hisself says you cant predict pitching
one of his underlings does the pitching.
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey.
The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
- Phillies pitcher Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary
by e-gus on Oct 30, 2009 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't being serious on any level, e-gus
just poking fun at putting weight behind projections is all. They are useful, just not something with which to have a problem as they are best guesses.
...take your hobbit circle jerk to another thread
by larry on May 18, 2009 8:58 PM PDT
by rhythm on Oct 30, 2009 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is God, how dare you be so nonchalant about it!
"Awarding a difference maker on the field - and in the community at large - has always been baseball's version of a home run." ~Stephen A. Smith
by Carbiner on Oct 30, 2009 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well the BJ projections are a big part of my fantasy baseball dominance.
They dont get them all right, but they hit on a bunch of players.
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey.
The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
- Phillies pitcher Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary
by e-gus on Oct 30, 2009 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A little of both?
Career averages for guys with more history, and current trends for the younger guys.
He must be assuming that Floyd is going to continue to trend downward, based on the last two years? I hope it’s more to his average…. and the BigHairyBalls index was clearly thrown off by finishing so far out of the race.
I don’t see Freddy pitching 50 more innings than he did last year, but .500 seems about right.
by Mitch. on Oct 30, 2009 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Continue to trend downward?"
The only things that “trended downward[s]” were his W/L and ERA, which hold very little predictive value.
by CWSKeith on Oct 30, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the predictions are just folly
his stats were like cy young the last 2/3 of the year. what does that portend? who knows?
by Hatchetm on Oct 30, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
His advanced stats were pretty good last year.
FIP 3.77
K/9 7.60 Highest since his rookie year where he only pitched 28 innings
K/BB 2.76 a career best
BABIP was near his career average so it wasn’t as if he was getting lucky with balls in play.
Keep in mind his stats were that much better after they discovered he was tipping his pitches. I just don’t see how he can be projected to regress at least WHIP-wise in 2010. W/L and ERA are pretty much a crapshoots anyways.
by MrBungle on Oct 30, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
for the record, James did pretty well on Danks and Floyd last year
Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
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by The Cheat on Oct 30, 2009 1:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Bill sure is as lucky as a blind squirrel.
But how about a blind pig?
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 30, 2009 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
z
If the world was perfect, it wouldn't be -- Yogi Berra
by mick10 on Oct 30, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, that's someone's Mom!
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 30, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
doesn't make her any less of a pig!
...take your hobbit circle jerk to another thread
by larry on May 18, 2009 8:58 PM PDT
by rhythm on Oct 30, 2009 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, in her day...
Nah, she’s always been a pig.
CAN'T GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. THANK YOU. GOOD NIGHT. by BuehrleMan
by winningugly on Oct 30, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If bill james is right
about MB,JD,and GF i dont know if i will be able to watch baseball this year. you would think Mark would have to have a good year this year because he had 4 horrible years in a row in terms of winning games. but if he goes 12-12 and throws a no hitter its not even worth it
YOU CAN PUT IT ON THE BOARD YES!
www.reverbnation.com/czheckproductions
by Czheck on Nov 2, 2009 8:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
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