Teams Paid $6.5 - 7.5 MM per WAR in '09 Offseason
"The dollar per win mark here was lower at just $5.79 million, however, this doesn't capture the true cost, since players signing mult-year contracts will likely be worse at the end of their contract than during the first year studied here. Even with this bias, the $5.79 million mark is far more than the usual $4.5 million mark. An additional counterintuitive finding is that players signing multi-year contracts tended to perform worse than their single-year contract contemporaries. This multi-year term was not significant, however, so the result isn't generalizable. Still, it was surprising to find the effect going in the opposite direction than what one would expect in 2009.
While 2009 could have been just a bad year for free agents - this is further evidence that the $4.5 million per win mark commonly used may be, if not wrong, at least obsolete. Using this 2009 data from two different data sources, again shows the dollars per win value above $6 million. While estimates based on projected WAR may yield a different figure, the reality is that teams are paying much more than that (or at least they did in 2009). Interestingly, 2009 was seen at the time as being a depressed free agent market, where teams could pick up relatively cheap bargains. At $6.5 to $7.5 million per win, there were very few bargains to be had."
One note: this hasn't been corrected for any kind of Winner's Curse. Free agents are paid by the team willing to pay the most. The market's actual valuation of the player would be something like an average of all available offer sheets. This is not a measure of what all teams were willing to pay, only what it took to sign those players.
That said, I doubt that inflation brings it back in line with the accepted $4.5MM/WAR figure. I think it also makes Kenny's approach more sensible as I'm fairly certain trades are less susceptible to such phenomena.
about 2 years ago
colintj
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OT:
my drawing is done.
"I don’t know how you guys measure worth…but I do know you idiots need a graph to show you that Josh Fields sucks…"
by Where Triples Go to Die on Dec 15, 2009 6:31 PM CST reply actions
It really is.
and didnt have a headline.
"I like my DH like I like my women. Fat , slow and full of power."
by soxshenanigans
do you think fangraphs / other databases will catch on and revise the $4.5/WAR figure?
wrapped and sealed with masking tape moistened with sweat experience existence of ignorance
by onlysoxfaninboston on Dec 15, 2009 8:34 PM CST reply actions
I'm decidedly "meh" about this deal
I like the idea of getting back to being a good defensive squad. Pierre is going to be below average overall but hopefully — like Pods in 2005 — he’ll be above replacement level and the Sox can get by on having his speed track down more flies than average.
Even so, this talk of the rotating DH has me a bit scared. If they go into 2010 without another legit hitter, that’ll be a serious indictment against KW, almost as bad (perhaps worse?) than the Swisher deal. Am I unnecessarily freaking out, hitlesswonder style? You’ve gotta think that some voice of reason within the front office will win out and tell Ozzie that there’s a reason it’s called the designated hitter, right?
If what’s been said is just a front and the Sox do end up with Cust, I think I’m okay with where they’re at. They will have improved the defense considerably over the last year. Combine that with the pitching staff and the Sox should be up there with Seattle and Boston as the best run prevention teams. A lineup of:
Pierre
Beckham
Cust
Quentin
Konerko
Pierzynski
Ramirez
Teahen
Rios
isn’t great, but I don’t see any offensive sinkholes besides LF.
no no no
LF Pierre
2B Beckham
RF Quentin
1B Konerko
C Pierzynski
SS Ramirez
CF Rios
3B Teahen
DH Vizquel
:D
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 15, 2009 8:39 PM CST up reply actions
CHONE disagrees
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper
by colintj on Dec 16, 2009 12:23 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
thats because he is really good friends with cust
thome is too central illinois to befriend
brndnprkns: I'm pretty sure the "badass" value of your life is closer to Gigli than The Dark Knight
by whitesoxmatt on Dec 16, 2009 8:52 AM CST up reply actions
i noted that CHONE's projection for Jim may have understood the trade as a sign
that his health risk is higher than it is and hedged too much. That said, every year that goes by, Thome gets that much more likely to finally wash out anyway.
I’m not super familiar with Oakland’s financial situation, but they couldn’t pay the ~$3MM in arb for 2 wins? It doesn’t look like they even have another viable DH candidate, just a bunch of average-ish hitters. It’s hard to see Beane ditching him unless they thought he was on the decline and mostly replaceable.
Meanwhile, Bill James and the Fans think they’re about equally talented hitters with similar discounts in GP. I think they’re probably about equal, though I’d lean toward Cust because I’d still guess he’s healthier. You could actually put Cust in the field and he wouldn’t break into pieces.
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper
I'm a fan of neither
Well, obviously a fan of Thome, but he was late on more fastballs last year, and I think acquiring that contract from Philadelphia worked out as well as could be expected, and there’s no need to push it.
I have a hunch Cust could wash out after a year or two as well. I’d probably welcome a one-year deal, but I’d hate watching him play. He’s awful on the eyes.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
We look at numbers.
I find watching the games screws up my objectivity.
"don tink about new jork. jus come in ready to wing de gay."
how's Cust so different than watching Thome?
when they’re at the plate, it’s a thing of beauty. and we won’t have to play Cust in the field.
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper
Uglier swing, a ton more strikeouts.
TTO baseball is boring, and there’s no HOF track record to weigh it against.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on Dec 16, 2009 10:19 PM CST up reply actions
we differ on TTO baseball
what i really want to see is Cust’s dugout persona. probably a meaner, dumber Thome, right? i bet it lacks conjunctions and articles.
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper
Jack Cust is drunk hulk?
Chicago White Sox Examiner — I wish I could cuss right now.
by UribeAuction on Dec 17, 2009 9:20 AM CST up reply actions
2005-2009, the Sox have averaged something like 23 WAR from pitching
that plus 48 wins from replacement is ~70 total wins. We need to be at 88 or so.
The fans project:
Alexei: 3.2 WAR
Beckham: 4.1
Quentin: 3.0
Rios: 3.1
Konerko: 2.0
Pierzynski: 2.0
Gets us to 17 position player wins.
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper
CHONE is less optimistic
14.7 WAR from the same players. But it’s still in the neighborhood.
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper
this one time CHONE, i'm going to let you ask me about my business
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper
Love the Rios projection
And I just took another look at his numbers. I think I have a giant boner for him. If he can get back the 4 points of LD% he lost, he’ll prolly clock in closer to 4→5 WAR.
Hot. Damn.
Unnecessarily freaking out? I only do that 80% of time, so...well...I guess that's fair.
So let’s be rational. A Kotsay/Jones/Vizquel(!) DH is a horrible idea. I believe we are rightly worried because it’s been discussed in vague terms (“DH that can play the field”) for a while. But even I have to admit:
1) This could just be a KW smokescreen to cover a deal or to appear un-desperate to a trade partner. I’d say there’s a 50/50 chance of that.
2) I’m not a huge KW fan, but in the past he’s talked about playing to the park. I think there’s a good chance he will upgrade the offense.
3) Even if they go into the season with a bucket of suck at DH, I think KW would move quickly to acquire a bat once the folly is revealed.
So there. I think there’s a solid chance that the DH spot gets fixed at some point.
I would be happier if it happens before the season starts.
by hitlesswonder on Dec 15, 2009 10:04 PM CST up reply actions
I was actually just thinking that
He’s ML ready with the bat and he can caddy for AJ. And, if he’s DHing some instead of straight catching he might not take the normal rookie catcher stats hit. For the most recent example of that issue see Matt Weiters.
wow reason from you?
I thought about informing you a long time ago, there was this thing called, “in season moves.” I mean the Sox never ever do that. Alas you came to the conclusion all on your own.
"Oh well back to work"
Why should it take so long as to be an "in season move", though?
the rotation idea isn’t a good one, especially with the players they’re planning to rotate in and out of that role. The only good that I see in it is that it gets Quentin some more time off the field. Furthermore, signing either Thome or Cust doesn’t preclude the Sox from using the DH as a rest station. In Thome’s case, the chances of him staying healthy throughout a whole season are rather minimal, so those guys are going to get playing time. With Cust, you can stick him in LF once every ten games (or whatever minimal amount) and not be too hurt by it.
The reasonable person in me says that KW is waiting for Cust and Thome to find out just how limited their market is. Thome’s not going to an NL team and it’s tough for me to see any NL team offering Cust anything more than a Matt Stairs role for $700K. Even better for the Sox is the fact that there are, relatively speaking, quite a few DH options available and not that many openings available (by a quick glance, I see five AL teams that need a DH).
I agree with you and hope that is the case
But they may see how it shakes out. They might want to see what kind of shape Jones is in. Or as you pointed out they may pounce on a sweet deal. Based off the story it seems like KW is already thinking along those lines, he may have to convince Ozzie.
"Oh well back to work"
One more complaint (err, probably two)
it appears as if Nix is not going to make the roster, unless the Sox decide to go with an 11-man pitching staff*. Seeing that Ozzie needs his two lefties (Williams) as well as his long-man (Hudson). I tend to think that means Nix is gone (unless the Sox don’t add an actual DH) — does he still have options left? In any case, I think the Sox lose a very good bench player if they ditch Nix.
*This is something else that should be looked at internally. Do the Sox really need a 12-man staff? You’ve got an excellent top four and a reasonable fifth option — if Hudson is kept, there’s really no reason why the Sox should carry a 12th pitcher.
The Sox watched him play every other day this year
And then went out and got Teahen and Vizquel. If we think much of the Sox scouts, that’s worth noting.
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper
by colintj on Dec 16, 2009 12:25 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Cust seems like the optimal candidate
And it looks like the A’s did him a favor letting him go. CHONE likes him to the tune of 21 bR150, a full win better than Thome.
It just occurred to me that his system might pick up the trade as an injury or something. So it might be a little low.
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper
by colintj on Dec 16, 2009 12:38 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Well, all I can say is that making a DH out of pieces of Jones/Kotsay/Vizquel(!)...
…is so ridiculous that I have to believe KW will bring in another bat. Maybe he’ll have to move Jenks for junk to do it (which is fine with me), but I trust Williams to see that his lineup blows as is currently constructed.
I mean, of the three-headed dog proposed to DH, Jones is the only one which seems remotely plausible in the role but the reality is that he hit .214 last season and, even though BA isn’t everything, that’s alarmingly low. Odds are that he and Kotsay are done as productive hitters despite having hot streaks last season.
by hitlesswonder on Dec 16, 2009 9:56 AM CST up reply actions
"Maybe he’ll have to move Jenks for junk to do it (which is fine with me)"
are you mentally fucking retarded?
"I don’t know how you guys measure worth…but I do know you idiots need a graph to show you that Josh Fields sucks…"
by Where Triples Go to Die on Dec 16, 2009 3:35 PM CST up reply actions
If the choice is between Jenks and a guy that can play everyday and post an .850 OPS
I’ll take the everyday player with Thornton closing rather than Jones/Kotsay/Vizquel DHing and Jenks closing
by hitlesswonder on Dec 16, 2009 3:43 PM CST up reply actions
lets not forget bad matt thornton.
bad matt thornton is no bad bobby jenks.
"I don’t know how you guys measure worth…but I do know you idiots need a graph to show you that Josh Fields sucks…"
by Where Triples Go to Die on Dec 16, 2009 3:48 PM CST up reply actions
when (and how often) did bad matt thornton show up for the sox?
wrapped and sealed with masking tape moistened with sweat experience existence of ignorance
by onlysoxfaninboston on Dec 17, 2009 9:06 AM CST up reply actions
not so much this past year but too much.
"I don’t know how you guys measure worth…but I do know you idiots need a graph to show you that Josh Fields sucks…"
by Where Triples Go to Die on Dec 18, 2009 1:15 PM CST up reply actions
honestly before they do anything drastic like trade bobby to bring in JC...
lets see what flowers can do, or what Vlad is asking for… Sorry about the retard comment.
"I don’t know how you guys measure worth…but I do know you idiots need a graph to show you that Josh Fields sucks…"
by Where Triples Go to Die on Dec 16, 2009 3:49 PM CST up reply actions
maybe kenny is just trying to stay ahead of the curve.
he will be ready when they get rid of the DH. they’re talking about talking about banning it you know. link.*
*WARNING- link is to a phil rogers article.
the suck is not just a river in ireland.
Small (Yankee) Sample Size
And Dunn putting up historically bad fielding stats of course.
The world needs the Jedi now more than ever
Blah blah Yankees actually performed around their expected WAR blah blah
Yankees bad. Very bad.
The world needs the Jedi now more than ever
I da man?
The trade, however, also opens the door for a lot of great nicknames for the South Siders’ outfield when it happens to be comprised of Pierre, former Los Angeles teammate Andruw Jones(notes) and expensive Blue Jays castoff Alex Rios(notes). “The Discounted”, “The Ned Colletti Memorial Outfield” and “Where’s Vernon Wells(notes) When You Need Him?” happen to be my early favorites. (Feel free to submit your favorite nicknames below.)
Bastards
The world needs the Jedi now more than ever
I realy, really dig 'The Discounted'
Its true except for Rios. And even Rios is kind of discounted in that we didn’t try and acquire a guy who has averaged 2.88 WAR per year since he became a regular on the open market. That total includes his rookie .1 year and last years abomination.
depending on how the strikeout rates go, maybe Kmart?
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
by thatshortkid on Dec 16, 2009 1:19 PM CST up reply actions
fuck no
i do my big box here
Hell Yesss
by Grinder Rule #42 on Dec 16, 2009 1:21 PM CST up reply actions
I'll judge this bullshit roster in October
When I’ll have the advantage of hindsight.
by Duck99 on Dec 15, 2009 10:17 PM CST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
I see the Pierre freakout is on
1- Juan Pierre is good…when compared to other Sox “leadoff hitters” of recent vintage.
2- The Sox go into the 2010 season with a 5-man pitching staff, an upgrade from “Burls/Danks/Floyd and hopefully Bartolo and Contreras have something left in the tank.”
3- Kenny is lying his ass off about money. The “rotating DH” deal is a smokescreen. Get the big bat – and I feel pretty good heading into this season.
are you soxnet?
wrapped and sealed with masking tape moistened with sweat experience existence of ignorance
by onlysoxfaninboston on Dec 16, 2009 7:42 AM CST up reply actions
Is that like Skynet?
He knows he needs a big thumper in USCF, he probably doesn’t want to overpay by sounding desperate, and he’s got the pieces to pull off a trade.
i was just joking about the #3 point, the soxnet post on twitter
that said, kdub is not an idiot (except for any moves related to swish), and i suspect he’s working hard to get another bat in the line-up
wrapped and sealed with masking tape moistened with sweat experience existence of ignorance
by onlysoxfaninboston on Dec 16, 2009 8:13 AM CST up reply actions
I know. "SoxNet has learned" sounds an awful lot like "Skynet has become self aware."
by 67WMAQ on Dec 16, 2009 8:19 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
But their intentions are pure!
They’ll never tell what they know, lest they drive up the price.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
And now, a Tweet from 1974
“Turns out that reporting on Watergate made Richard Nixon resign. Nice job, Washington media!”
"a learning computer"
12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez
Exactly..
He has plenty of time and options. I think he knows he can go back to Thome if nothing else works out, so he has no reason to rush. Quite a few guys out there that will cost 5 million or less and do a serviceable job at DH. No reason to paint yourself in a corner if you’re KW.
by Grinder in Training on Dec 16, 2009 8:56 AM CST up reply actions
The other possibilities
are Carlos Delgado if he checks out medically and Vlad if his market continues cratering. Those 2 also meet the “can do a reasonable approximation of playing defense” criteria. I’m Ok with waiting to see which of those 4 Thome/Cust/Delgado/Vlad gets most desperate and signs for like 4 mill (delgado would prob be even lower with incentives).
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
Abreu versus Vlad in RF...which of the 2 would you DH?
"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "
And I think Vlad played RF 100 or so games in '08.
"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "
Fair point
I was under the impression that Vlad was too hobbled by injuries to even remotely play the field at any level in ‘09. Maybe a healthy Vlad can fit the aforementioned criteria, not sure, but I’d doubt it.
bhoov's criteria was "can do a reasonable approximation of playing defense"
Assuming a reasonably healthy Q, Kotsay thrown into the RF mix, Jones in the wings, I don’t think Vlad would get TOO many starts in RF to cause damage. Even at a “reasonable approximation of playing defense”.
I’m not making an argument for Vlad, only explaining how I read bhoov’s comment. Personally, I think a Jones, Kotsay, Konerko, Q mix would be fine.
"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "
yeah
I’m just trying to meet the criteria of what Oz wants out of the DH. I think Oz was always frustrated by having to sit Thome for every single NL game, even if the matchup dictated that Thome should play over Paulie. So I’m hoping that a Vlad or Delgado or Cust would satisfy Oz. Personally I would have no prob having a DH who never played the field.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
don't be shocked if dye is brought back and plays some first base this year.
"I don’t know how you guys measure worth…but I do know you idiots need a graph to show you that Josh Fields sucks…"
by Where Triples Go to Die on Dec 16, 2009 3:40 PM CST up reply actions
he would at least have some brothers to hang out with on the team this year...
"I don’t know how you guys measure worth…but I do know you idiots need a graph to show you that Josh Fields sucks…"
by Where Triples Go to Die on Dec 16, 2009 3:56 PM CST up reply actions
i can't figure out which is which
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
by thatshortkid on Dec 16, 2009 4:05 PM CST up reply actions
I would love that
See, this is what happens when the Sox bunt.
Discord is sown. Brother fights brother. Misunderstandings abound.
-TAEG
As long as he doesn't play in the outfield and is getting paid less than 5 million, go for it.
Still rather have Delgado or Nick Johnson, but they are both probably too expensive.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Dec 16, 2009 3:57 PM CST up reply actions
i forgot about nick the stick
if not him, nady
"I like my DH like I like my women. Fat , slow and full of power."
by soxshenanigans
I'm hoping that "flexibility"
means simply someone who could play in the NL games when the matchup dictates it or when others get injured. I wouldn’t play Cust or Vlad more than 20 games in the field.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
i think this is exactly what he means
Ozzie hated having to sit Thome all the games.
"Oh well back to work"
if abreu is projected to have a higher WAR, i'm going with him
wrapped and sealed with masking tape moistened with sweat experience existence of ignorance
by onlysoxfaninboston on Dec 16, 2009 10:53 AM CST up reply actions
Shoulder(s)?
Those are pretty repairable for non-pitching baseball players, I think.
Brad Wilkerson would disagree.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
they aren't necessarily a death sentence anymore
but they’re still serious
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper
I would rather been coocoo for coco crisp
then teabagged with teahen
Hell Yesss
by Grinder Rule #42 on Dec 16, 2009 11:57 AM CST up reply actions
but I hope Im wrong
I really do hope Teahen produces above what he has done. Even more then he did in 06
Hell Yesss
by Grinder Rule #42 on Dec 16, 2009 11:59 AM CST up reply actions
do they have space available for DH?
at most there are 13 position spots, correct? OF- Q, rios, pierre, jones, kotsay. IF konerko, beckham, alexei, teahen, vizquel, pierzynski, backup catcher. that makes 12, and the only backup for 2B, 3B and SS is vizquel. do they not need someone else to be a backup at at least one of those positions?
the suck is not just a river in ireland.
Well
Beckham’s ability to play all of those positions in an emergency is probably enough. Also if they carry 11 pitchers (unlikely) then they have another opening. But yeah if they sign a DH, Nix is gone.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
Oh that's right, I forgot about that.
I still want to keep Nix, so I would rather see De Aza sent packing instead of Nix.
Are you messing with me?
I feel like you are. De Aza is also not on the 25 man. Maybe we should send Dye packing?
No I knew it a long time ago when I dropped out of high school, got into a gang, and then
went into the black market.
moo and oink?
"I like my DH like I like my women. Fat , slow and full of power."
by soxshenanigans
by e-gus on Dec 16, 2009 7:42 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Jets or Sharks?
Reporter: I was wondering if at any point in my lifetime the Cubs weren't going to be run by a guy who didn't immediately remind me of failure, confusion, or imminent death
montigues
bird law in this country is not ruled by reason
by soxshenanigans on Dec 17, 2009 10:47 AM CST up reply actions
Ahh, sorry man.
Thought you were setting me up the woosh.
I also like Nix, but we won’t lost him. He just slots ahead of lillybridging in AAA as first IF up.
The infield guys are all pretty flexible
Teahan can play 2b if he has to in a pinch, Alexei and Beckham could both play all 3 if need be for a game or two.
If someone is out for a long time they’d obviously need to pick somebody up if they get rid of Nix for a DH.
by Grinder in Training on Dec 16, 2009 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
The UK has paid 4.5 billion so far
for it’s WAR in Iraq and Afghanistan and now we are bankrupt.
regards
i've got 50 cents you can have.
and by the way, did you sign richard corbett’s petition to force uefa to investigate leeds’ 1-0 loss to AC milan in the 1973 european cup winners’ cup final? word is the rossoneri got to the official, christos michas. cheating bastards.
the suck is not just a river in ireland.
you mean you're not even still mad
about the 1-0 loss to chelsea in the 1967 FA cup semi-final when leeds had 2 seemingly good goals disallowed? that’s awfully big of you.
serious question though: does leeds have a particular reputation for getting screwed over? (or for the supporters feeling as if they’ve been screwed over?)
the suck is not just a river in ireland.
everyone hates us
Leeds Utd are the most unpopular club in the country
it extends to officials, other fans, politicians, in fact anyone who doesn’t support us.
We’ve always been fucked over whenever we looked like winning something.
is the pawn industry still booming?
http://www.pri.org/theworld/?q=node/25743
and across the way this guy is right on http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/11/paul-gogarty-irish-lawmak_n_389385.html
Hell Yesss
by Grinder Rule #42 on Dec 16, 2009 12:26 PM CST up reply actions
Any chance KW tries to put together a package to beat Boston in getting A. Gonzales from SD?
What does SD really want? CF and SP?
I think the Sox, White could put together a competitive package.
The Pads would want major league ready talent – Hudson fits the bill. Jordan Danks might qualify as well.
Lets say it gets done – would rotating PK and A Gonz at 1B/DH qualify as the “flexibility” Ozzie wants?
I'd imagine that'd please everyone. But, I find it hard to believe the Sox trade their best pitching prospect 2 years in a row.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Dec 16, 2009 12:54 PM CST up reply actions
I guess we should look at what the Braves gave up for Teixiera and go from there.
Rangers got a nice haul. San Diego isn’t going to pull the trigger on the first offer that comes along – and the Sox look competitive enough for Kenny to wait until July.
Boston writer says "not so fast."
From the Twitter feed of ESPNBoston (but I repeat myself) Red Sox reporter Gordon Edes
Red Sox know what it would take to get Gonzalez, and they’re not trading Buchholz and Ellsbury, baseball source tells me. SD asking a ton.
I would give Hudson and the entire farm for A Gonz.
"I like my DH like I like my women. Fat , slow and full of power."
by soxshenanigans
"The entire farm".
LOL. Quite the haul.
"don tink about new jork. jus come in ready to wing de gay."
Maybe if we gave them an actual profitable farm they'd take it..
They could use the cash.
by Grinder in Training on Dec 16, 2009 2:53 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
That is true. I would hate to see Hudson pitch for another team.
However PK could solve our DH problem next year and A Gonz solve our 1B at a low cost. Unless of course KW thinks Viciedo can fill 1B.
If we do it without Hudson
I’d be thrilled
See, this is what happens when the Sox bunt.
Discord is sown. Brother fights brother. Misunderstandings abound.
-TAEG
It's Adrian Gonzalez
Who the hell cares if Hudson is involved. You do that w/o blinking an eye. Daniel Hudson isn’t the next Pedro here.. come on.
This is an elite baseball player, not some run of the mill first baseman. Padres can take whoever they want.
by Grinder in Training on Dec 16, 2009 2:55 PM CST up reply actions
Guy had several VG and 1 A+ seasons
in the National League.
Not sure I’d clean out the farm system (even ours) for a 1st baseman
Obviously it's an exaggeration
You wouldn’t give up anything, but they can take their pick of guys.. and Dan Hudson is definitely not a reason to turn it down.
by Grinder in Training on Dec 16, 2009 3:13 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I know that.
But what do you give up for a guy like Gonzalez.
Start with Hudson / Danks Jr. / Viciedo
Our farm system doesn’t have much and I don’t think Flowers is going anywhere. Can’t trade Mitchell yet even if we wanted to.
by Grinder in Training on Dec 16, 2009 3:42 PM CST up reply actions
headline
"I don’t know how you guys measure worth…but I do know you idiots need a graph to show you that Josh Fields sucks…"
by Where Triples Go to Die on Dec 16, 2009 3:54 PM CST up reply actions
at least when i made that joke i formatted the picture to less than ginormous.
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
by thatshortkid on Dec 16, 2009 4:02 PM CST up reply actions
what? do you think i took a class on hacking???
i dont know how to do that shit!!!!
"I don’t know how you guys measure worth…but I do know you idiots need a graph to show you that Josh Fields sucks…"
by Where Triples Go to Die on Dec 18, 2009 1:13 PM CST up reply actions
btw
ginormous = gay
"I don’t know how you guys measure worth…but I do know you idiots need a graph to show you that Josh Fields sucks…"
by Where Triples Go to Die on Dec 18, 2009 1:14 PM CST up reply actions
"$170MM luxury tax threshold"
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/red-sox-notes-lackey-beckett-payroll.html
What a FUCKING JOKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Unimpressed
Has Pierre in center and discusses his value as if he was playing there, doesn’t have a firm grasp of the situation he wrote an entire article about.
by Grinder in Training on Dec 16, 2009 3:48 PM CST up reply actions
assuming pierre in center
gives the author more leeway to bash the move on KW’s side
"...but the devil lives inside this kid, I swear it. It rises out of him in a mist, this baby-faced defiant wrathful version of Pat Kane, escapes his bodily confines to perform satanic miracles all over the offensive zone. The only thing more fearsome than that assist was the keep-in preceding it. The only thing more unholy than his face is his black magic." GMH
I think the author likes KW just fine,
or at least respects him.
"don tink about new jork. jus come in ready to wing de gay."
i never said he didn't like him
all he says is that he’s perplexed by the trade because he assumes pierre is in center. he’d probably be slightly less perplexed if it was pierre in left
"...but the devil lives inside this kid, I swear it. It rises out of him in a mist, this baby-faced defiant wrathful version of Pat Kane, escapes his bodily confines to perform satanic miracles all over the offensive zone. The only thing more fearsome than that assist was the keep-in preceding it. The only thing more unholy than his face is his black magic." GMH
doubt it
At that point, assuming Rios is Rios they would put Jones out there.
"Oh well back to work"
i kissed a man!
brndnprkns: I'm pretty sure the "badass" value of your life is closer to Gigli than The Dark Knight
by whitesoxmatt on Dec 17, 2009 8:34 AM CST up reply actions
your gun is digging into my hip
It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
He at least acknowledges Kenny has a track record, and that it's pointless to question his logic.
It’s the pathetic wannabe FJM commenters that annoy me.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Dec 16, 2009 3:55 PM CST up reply actions
FJM = fuck jerry manuel?
"I don’t know how you guys measure worth…but I do know you idiots need a graph to show you that Josh Fields sucks…"
by Where Triples Go to Die on Dec 16, 2009 3:57 PM CST up reply actions
yeah
this was a much more even-keeled analysis of a kw transaction than what fangraphs usually produces. there really weren’t any shots taken
"...but the devil lives inside this kid, I swear it. It rises out of him in a mist, this baby-faced defiant wrathful version of Pat Kane, escapes his bodily confines to perform satanic miracles all over the offensive zone. The only thing more fearsome than that assist was the keep-in preceding it. The only thing more unholy than his face is his black magic." GMH
FJM has inspired the worst wannabes since Hunter S. Thompson
FJM guys = extremely wealthy writers and producers of two critically acclaimed network television shows. A fact that seems to elude most baseball blog commenters.
Two of the three write for The Office and Parks and Recreation.
But you’re right – Last Call with Carson Daly is a replacement level TV show.
What'd you expect son? You aren't funny unless you're rich.
The world needs the Jedi now more than ever
Homeless people are notoriously good at standup AND improv comedy...
There's Your Zagnut!!!
by DrEmilioLizardo on Dec 16, 2009 6:13 PM CST up reply actions
JimCarrey was homeless when he started stand-up.
Helluva lot funnier then than now.
"don tink about new jork. jus come in ready to wing de gay."
are you whooshing me?
wrapped and sealed with masking tape moistened with sweat experience existence of ignorance
by onlysoxfaninboston on Dec 17, 2009 9:08 AM CST up reply actions
Who's Zooming Who?
There's Your Zagnut!!!
by DrEmilioLizardo on Dec 17, 2009 2:59 PM CST up reply actions
Regardless
This is not much more than a break even move considering how much the Sox are paying Pierre
one problem.
HE’S NOT FUCKING PLAYING FUCKING CENTER FIELD.
the suck is not just a river in ireland.
great job by cowley.
here is the entire content of what he just put on twitter.
Putz on the Sox: "I definitely put it in one of the elite teams in the American League.’’
thanks joe.
the suck is not just a river in ireland.
I thought this post from Cameron at USSM was appropriate
http://ussmariner.com/2009/12/16/what-this-trade-does/
Definitely applicable to the Sox — not that Pierre is the same caliber player as Lee (duh), but that the Sox are just about at the point where the marginal value of a win is greater than average. The Sox need to get a DH — any one of the free agents is likely to be a one-to-two win upgrade over our current collection of dreck (wtf — dreck is getting the red squiggly line? That’s BS. Dreck is a very good word.). I’m probably becoming an annoyance at this point, but Glaus or Thome add at least a win, Vlad adds 1.5 and Cust* adds 2.5 (going by CHONE projections).
*CHONE fucking loves Cust — it sees him as the second best free agent hitter available (tied with Bay). Perhaps their projection is a bit optimistic but in any case the Sox should be all over him if his asking price is <$5 million.
"over our current collection of dreck"
Jones projects to be 4 R/150. Kotsay’s is even worse. 2.5 comes from the move from a -4 DH to a +21 DH - did I do the maths wrong?
Alright -- I have no idea why that's crossed out.
Let’s try again.
“Jones projects to be -4/150. Kotsay’s is even worse 2.5 comes from the move from a -4 DH to a +21DH.”
There, that works.
-4 LF?
and CHONE uses TotalZone for a quick and dirty d projection. Cust is an awful outfielder, even if you regress to 3 seasons, he’s still a -8 UZR, which basically cancels out any benefit from playing in a corner.
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper
Are we talking past each other?
I’m not talking about defense — just DH and our current options there. You said replacement level is a league average hitter and Jones + others are well below the league average hitter (I said 4 - Jones’ projection — but if you factor in Vizquel and Kotsay, it’s likely closer to 10). I’m looking at the R150 column - that’s runs per 150, yes? If Cust projects to be 21 runs above average (where average = replacement level for DHs) and our current baseline is anywhere from -5 to -10, Cust is anywhere from a 2.5 to 3 win upgrade.
I tend to agree with you in that the CHONE projection might be a tad optimistic. Even a less optimistic projection like the fans’ one of fangraphs puts him at ~15 R150.
I’ll stop now, seeing that we agree with each other.
Fuckin' a -- no matter, the last sentence of that first 'graph is my point.
Sox need one more legit hitter. There are plenty available and a good chance you can get one cheap. So go get one, Kenny. I’ll now STFU for a bit.
oic
Jones would presumably be platooning with Pierre/Kotsay. All Kenny’s asking in that scenario is to hit .270/.340/.400 against righties (i.e. Pods) and let Jones try to bump it up past replacement. But that is seriously makeshift. And the Twins have their shit together.
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper
a perfectly cromulent post
it embiggens us all
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
by thatshortkid on Dec 16, 2009 6:11 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
" but that the Sox are just about at the point where the marginal value of a win is greater than average."
http://books.google.com/books?id=uxdvwQdXbboC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA192#v=onepage&q=&f=false
Averaging what CHONE and the fans project for position players and using 23 WAR for the pitchers, we’re at 87.
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper
KW better stop with this craziness of using Vizquel as a DH. So who is the SSS favorite for KW to pick up as a full time DH?
- Cust
- Guerrero
- Johnson
- Thome
I assume KW would want a lefty, so that drops Guerrero. Do the Sox really want to go with a 39 y/o in Thome? Cust would probably sign for the cheapest 1yr deal unless Thome takes a big home town discount. However I think I might prefer Johnson as he can play some 1B to give PK some rest and takes a lot of pitches, something this team needs to learn. Maybe he can teach AR how to take a pitch for once.
using someone who can't be at least league average at DH is truly insane.
as for the three lefties, they are fairly similar.
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper
fungible?
bird law in this country is not ruled by reason
by soxshenanigans on Dec 16, 2009 8:07 PM CST up reply actions
Exactly, unless KW has lost his marbles there is no sense in using Vizquel as DH. As an infield tutor YES. As a late inning defensive replacement YES. As an occasional starter to give someone rest YES. But not an everyday DH starter.
Colintj, who do you prefer out of the lefties listed for DH?
i really do see them as about equal. the dividing line requires more expertise than i've got.
Johnson could implode any time, Cust could have some Ben Grieve in him and who knows how long Thome’s miracle will last.
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing. - Trooper
While I do think KW has another move planned
I doubt it comes any time soon. Not this year, for sure.
So we wait for 15 days then, yes?
And hope Kenny’s new years resolution is to stop listening to his employees when its time for him to do his job?
Its more that the price for the type of player he's likely to get will probably go down
as time goes on. I guess its up to him to decide what balance between price and quality he should strike.
I sense there's an NFL Network ad behind the page
I also sense someone at SBN needs to brush up on either CSS or math
signature
The force is strong with this one.
And now the SBN gods will smite thee with js blobs for impugning their math skills.
uh oh
@NickSwisher promote my (Teahen)Event @kc_challenger www.challengeyourfashion.com Moneyballers stick 2gether & u r slightly more famous
6:42 PM Dec 11th from Echofon in reply to NickSwisher
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
by thatshortkid on Dec 16, 2009 11:48 PM CST up reply actions
money shot'n?
12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez
Pierre, Putz, Teahen to attend SoxFest 2010
December 17, 2009 10:58 AM | 1 Comment
Newly acquired Juan Pierre, J.J. Putz and Mark Teahen are among the players now committed to attending SoxFest 2010 at the Palmer House Hilton in Chicago.
Other players scheduled to attend the annual event Jan. 22-24 include Mark Kotsay, Gordon Beckham, Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Andruw Jones, Paul Konerko, Scott Linebrink, Jayson Nix, Jake Peavy, A.J. Pierzynski, Alexei Ramirez and Matt Thornton, plus manager Ozzie Guillen.
Former Sox players on hand will include Floyd Bannister, Lance Johnson and Gary Peters.
"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "
(Chiburb gets a woody at the thought of Gary Peters being there.
Me, too.)
"don tink about new jork. jus come in ready to wing de gay."
by winningugly on Dec 17, 2009 11:15 AM CST up reply actions
I was too young to fully appreciate it, but his '66 season was outstanding.
No All-Star game, only 12-10 record, but holy crap.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peterga01.shtml?redir
"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "
"Too young". In 1966.
Pull this leg, OPOS. ;)
"don tink about new jork. jus come in ready to wing de gay."
by winningugly on Dec 17, 2009 11:38 AM CST up reply actions
floyd bannister
was never really a fan fav.
Lance Johnson seems like a great guy
My mom got scout seat tickets from a co-worker at work for the season finale against the Twins some time in the 90s. The game was meaningless, Pat Meares was hitting third or fourth. Anyways, we stuck around for autographs outside the players parking lot and he spent a lot of time signing, talking to fans, giving out stuff from the club house, like bazooka joe packs and other little trinkets. Chris Snopek gave away his batting gloves, too.
"...but the devil lives inside this kid, I swear it. It rises out of him in a mist, this baby-faced defiant wrathful version of Pat Kane, escapes his bodily confines to perform satanic miracles all over the offensive zone. The only thing more fearsome than that assist was the keep-in preceding it. The only thing more unholy than his face is his black magic." GMH
off-topic
but i sat behind michael mccaskey on the flight home from dallas yesterday. dude sat in coach.
that is all.
recession's a bitch
wrapped and sealed with masking tape moistened with sweat experience existence of ignorance
by onlysoxfaninboston on Dec 17, 2009 1:10 PM CST up reply actions
oh, that too
wrapped and sealed with masking tape moistened with sweat experience existence of ignorance
by onlysoxfaninboston on Dec 17, 2009 1:22 PM CST up reply actions
Adam LaRoche
Haven’t heard much buzz about him as a DH, but he’s been pretty consistent the last 4 years (moreso than Cust). Thoughts?
cost more money though, no?
wrapped and sealed with masking tape moistened with sweat experience existence of ignorance
by onlysoxfaninboston on Dec 17, 2009 1:59 PM CST up reply actions
We got $.
JR didn’t get his hockey team. Money to burn. Look what we’ve spent already this offseason. We’re almost up to .80.
"don tink about new jork. jus come in ready to wing de gay."
Nickles = manhole covers.
Just like the McCaskeys.
"don tink about new jork. jus come in ready to wing de gay."
He's only spending for one team now.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Dec 17, 2009 3:13 PM CST up reply actions
What's the market for LaRoche?
On MLBTR they said he was looking for $10M/year, which is crazy, but the only rumored suitor I’ve seen was the M’s (who are now paying big $ for Figgins and Lee) and there’s a whole lot of similar guys still on the market.
Is that right?
Then I think we should pass not because of $ but because he is HIGH. He’s got to be on crack expecting $10MM/year. I don’t think he’s worth $8MM/year, either, mick, but WTF do I know.
"don tink about new jork. jus come in ready to wing de gay."
it's christmas, I'm feeling generous.
he comes from a good baseball family. keeps his name out of the paper and still calls his grandma every week. why must you always try to fuck these kind of guys? give the kid a break and give him the 8m.
Maybe he's saving for James!!! (ROFL)
"ass hole thi is the same line up whit leftys you idiot"
no sense in paying for a guy who can field
when he’s not going to field.
I don't think LaRoche would hit much more than Thome, if at all.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 17, 2009 4:56 PM CST up reply actions
I don't necessarily disagree.
But, LaRoche is younger, less of an injury risk, doesn’t suck quite as badly against LHP, and can play some 1B (Though he tends to take the first half off). My fantasy would be a deal for Adam Dunn, but that ain’t happening.
Danny, when you're right, you're right.
"don tink about new jork. jus come in ready to wing de gay."
fuck laroche.
that guy is streakier than larry’s underwear.
Kenwo4life=ratings
by KenWo4LiFe on Dec 18, 2009 1:13 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
He's really just a slow starter
Which means he’d fit in perfectly, not being able to hit a lick in April.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on Dec 18, 2009 10:16 AM CST up reply actions
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