Vazquez moves again

Javy Vasquez is on the move again. This time, back to the NYY with Boone Logan for Melky Carbrera, Mike Dunn and 300 k. I'm not sure if is an embarrassment of riches for the Yanks who now should have the best SP rotation in the game OR did they just create a Javy circa 2004 sized hole in their rotation.

I do know the Yankees scare me now. They're some kind of metal and pincer based great player acquisition machine. Scary!

about 2 years ago coffeepac 36 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Why would they scare you?

We had Javy. Remember him?

by KillaAK on Dec 22, 2009 9:54 AM CST reply actions

Its more their organizational competence.

They have acquired a great pitcher for surplus value (Cabrera is roughly the same player as Gardner). If ballots had gone to 5, Javy would have gotten more then one CY Nod. Last year, they acquired CC, AJ and Tex in one off season. This slows the loss of draft picks. They keep signing Andy P. to team friendly, one year deals.
And Lackey just agreed to a front loaded contract. Which is huge because it means other players will be more likely to accept such a deal which makes overpaying for a players decline phase less painful because the AAV of the contract will be higher then the tail end numbers; which makes cutting them and paying them to play for someone else not crippling.
Cashman seems to be learning how to use his cash advantage smartly. That makes them scary.

by coffeepac on Dec 22, 2009 11:05 AM CST up reply actions

He had a career year last year

and I still did not miss him once.

by KillaAK on Dec 22, 2009 9:55 AM CST reply actions

Mixed reactions at the Brave's SBN site. From Puking to Intelligence:

http://www.talkingchop.com/2009/12/22/1212388/braves-trade-javier-vazquez-to

"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "

by Chiburb on Dec 22, 2009 10:05 AM CST reply actions

I enjoyed this one:

“this is a horrible deal. if it was swisher i would be ok with it. i hope melky doesnt pass his physical
by longshotsmith on Dec 22, 2009 8:53 AM CST reply actions 0 recs”

Swisher for Hobby and SSH’s return on the same day would have been … glorious.

by The Actual El Guapo on Dec 22, 2009 2:23 PM CST up reply actions

It might be his mohawk

"It is obvious the Patriots souls are on lease - any day now Satan will rise up to New England - kick Tom Brady, Kevin Garnett, and David Ortiz in their luck filled testicles - and turn that area into his personal vacation home here on earth.-Rzayo 24, week one.

"Everybody in that room should be embarrassed. If they’re not embarrassed, they got the wrong job or they’re stealing money from baseball."-Ozzie Guillen 8/28/09

by rangerjae on Dec 23, 2009 6:00 AM CST up reply actions

i find boston's first three more frightening.

the suck is not just a river in ireland.

by BuehrleMan on Dec 22, 2009 10:08 AM CST reply actions

I'm oddly unafraid of Lackey

He’s always seemed hitable. The numbers don’t back up that sentiment, but he does average a 20% LD rate, which is high for an elite pitcher, I think. And he’s only had one season with a babip under 300. He’s had three near, within 10 points, 300; including last year.

Lester and Becket are scarier then CC/AJ.

by coffeepac on Dec 22, 2009 11:10 AM CST up reply actions

not afraid of lackey huh?

well, i’m not using numbers, i’m going with my eyes. have you ever looked at him? ; )
also, he will kick the crap out of you.

the suck is not just a river in ireland.

by BuehrleMan on Dec 22, 2009 11:17 AM CST up reply actions

haha, PERSONALLY I'm afraid of any major leaguer

bigger then Lillibridge. Because, right, I’m a software engineer. But I’m not afraid for my gladitorial catchers and third basemen.

by coffeepac on Dec 22, 2009 11:19 AM CST up reply actions

cc, javy, pettite, aj, joba

yeah, it’s marginally better than peavy, danks, floyd, buerhle, garcia, but we don’t have boston in our division

wrapped and sealed with masking tape moistened with sweat experience existence of ignorance

by onlysoxfaninboston on Dec 22, 2009 10:20 AM CST reply actions

Its not just them though.

Its also Hughes. He slots in as the 6th starter/long man and designated Joba caddy. If Joba is having trouble in the third and just threw 45 pitches for 2 outs and 6 walks, OH HEY: we have an average starter in the pen who can just go take care of this game. We’ll have that with hudson, but I put Joba/Hughes well above Garcia/Hudson.

also: checkout Joba’s fangraphs page: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2692&position=P The fans have predicted him for 38 starts next year. I’m sure this is some noise coming from people being split on him as a reliver or a starter but its still weird. 38 starts, 162 innings.

by coffeepac on Dec 22, 2009 11:16 AM CST up reply actions

Joel Sherman says most Yankees execs were seeing Joba as a reliever and heir to Rivera.

but whether its Hughes or Joba in the rotation, the other will be the 8th inning guy, not the 6th starter.

by chisox2691 on Dec 22, 2009 11:22 AM CST up reply actions

You can have the non-starter do both, right?

8th inning for AJ and Javy, assuming they are pitchers 2 and 3, then rest for CC and AP, assuming they are 1 and 4, which leaves you with a lot of rope to pull your high variance starter out of fires early on the 5th day. And you can probably get more use out of the one in the pen with off days that obviate the 5th starter entirely and extra days of rest in general.

So, you’re right. If its hughes in the pen, he’s the top righty setup guy in the pen and Joba’s caddy. Hell, if you have him do that for a year and build up some value as a probable high-impact starter you can have him replcate pettite when he retires after 2010 (if he does), replace javy if you don’t want to resign him or trade him as a starter for something. He’d be an Ace pitching in the NL Central or West.

by coffeepac on Dec 22, 2009 2:05 PM CST up reply actions

hmmm...

so are Flowers+Lil’Bridge+Gilmore+Rodriguez > Melky+Mike Dunn+Arodys Vizcaino

by southsideirish on Dec 22, 2009 10:43 AM CST reply actions

I would say yes

As Flowers is close to the majors and thus has less risk. Vizcaino has more upside at this point, but its all projection and scouting; no experience to back it up. he’s only 19.

by coffeepac on Dec 22, 2009 1:49 PM CST up reply actions

I like it for NY. It will come down to, can he stay at an elite level in the AL

and back in the limelight of NY.

They obv didn’t give all that much though. My sources also have them inlcuding Arodys Vizcaino in the deal. Vizcaino, 19, manged a 2.13 ERA in 10 starts (42 1/3 innings) at the Single-A level this year

by Q!'s Qrew on Dec 22, 2009 11:28 AM CST reply actions

My gut feeling is...

he’ll fold under the pressure in the Bronx. I"m hip to what KillaAK said.

by CATDADDY47 on Dec 22, 2009 11:55 AM CST reply actions

If he folds under the NY pressure

and becomes like half of what he was last year, which would be an epic collapse, he’s still a good pitcher. Even his off ‘04 he was .2 WAR above league average. Looks like he was homer unlucky and lost something on his fastball. 04 FB is over one mph lower then his regular and it went from +21 to -14 runs. I don’t think that happens again.

by coffeepac on Dec 22, 2009 12:03 PM CST up reply actions

Would you say he was a good pitcher in 06 and 08?

I’m not saying he wont be useful. I’m saying he’s going to be the same guy that goes 4 innings of 1 hit ball, gives up a bloop, hits a batter, then gives up a bomb. Then Another bomb. Then Walks a guy for the bullpen to let score.

by KillaAK on Dec 22, 2009 12:51 PM CST up reply actions

I'd say he was a good to great pitcher in 06 and 08

Fangraphs has him at 4.8 WAR for both seasons. He posted his top two BABIP seasons those years and had strand rates or 65 and 68 (these are low for him). This points to a bad defense making a pitcher look bad. he posted K/BB rates of over 3 (3.28, 3.29) on K totals of 184 and 200. He was better in 2007, but that’s mostly driven by a 30 point drop, to 297, in BABIP and has little to do with his ability.

Keith Law noted that opponents have a 100 point OPS jump when hes in the stretch vs the windup but two things on that:
1. I have no idea where he got that number so I can’t find comparables
2. You would always expect a jump in that number as pitchers prefer to throw from the windup; its why they do it that way.

His numbers will deteriorate as he’s moving to the toughest division, but he should be a top tier starter still. Really, he’s had that one average year in the Bronx and a recovery year in AZ where he gave up a ton of bombs and found his fastball after leaving it in Montreal. Otherwise, he’s been good to great.

by coffeepac on Dec 22, 2009 2:00 PM CST up reply actions

i imagine he gets that number, or a substanitally similar one, from anyplace where you can get the splits for runners on base v. no runners on base.

so just about any stat site, like baseball reference. and, yes, one would expect a jump – though, just thinking of white sox pitchers, freddy garcia pitches much better from the stretch – but a difference of that magnitude (i recall the number for javy being well under 100, probably closer to 75, though i haven’t checked recently) is unusual, particularly amongst pitchers who are any good.

by larry on Dec 22, 2009 2:44 PM CST up reply actions

For his career its 75

Last 7 years:
Year – Men/Open-Difference-Team
2009 – 629/603→25 -ATL
2008 – 818/714→104 -Chi
2007 – 733/681→62 -Chi
2006 – 834/649→185 -Chi
2005 – 857/711→146 -AZ
2004 – 813/712→119 -NYY
2003 – 728/617→111 -Mon

There doesn’t seem to be a way on baseball reference to sort by OPS difference. However, it would appear that Javy’s issues with men on base or from the stretch are larger then I suggested. Or, his defense in Chicago and AZ was truly deplorable and that accounts for batters becoming, oh, 2008/2009 Jim Thome when a runner reaches base. Instead of Melky Cabrera.

by coffeepac on Dec 22, 2009 3:08 PM CST up reply actions

maybe the braves fixed something last year.

i always thought that mechanical issues from the stretch could the reason for the large disparity, though i never could come up with anything and i’m not sure i care enough any longer to explore the issue further.

jose contreras is another guy who implodes from the stretch.

by larry on Dec 22, 2009 3:55 PM CST up reply actions

Last note, defense

I care just enough to note data for my defense hypothesis:

Year-Team-TeamUZR/150 (fangraphs)
2009-ATL- 2.1
2008-CHI 3.3
2007-CHI 7.8
2006-CHI 6.9
2005-AZ 7.2
2004-NYY -11.7

If this theory is going to be tested with any kind of rigor, I probably need to do an analysis on Javy in regards to batted ball profile and then re-weight the defensive metrics to give more weight to where he was letting balls land. I certainly don’t care that much, but first glance seems to say he had a collection of god awful defenses behind him until ATL last year, which was merely bad. Doesn’t look great for defense being the a large part of the issue; it does seem to be significant though.

by coffeepac on Dec 22, 2009 4:45 PM CST up reply actions

To dial the wayback machine to 2008 to reflect what the less-happy Vazquez might be like, his sixth innings as a White Sock were bloodbaths (.360/.380/.570), and his performances on pitches 76-100 equally gory (.325/.361/.550). Maybe he’s dispelled those bogeymen. Maybe it was all mean old Ozzie Guillen, hurting his feelings, and a dose of Bronx charity will make all the difference. And maybe it’s the difference between facing full lineups in the better league, because it pushes up when you’re catching the batting order in-game the third time around, and because you don’t get to see the pitchers and the Bonifacios in the AL East. It’ll certainly be interesting to find out.

"Oh well back to work"

by Tdogg on Dec 24, 2009 9:57 AM CST up reply actions