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Chris Getz Community Projection Results


South Side Sox' Chris Getz Community Projection

At Bats AVG OBP SLG XBH SB GS
Avg + Std Dev 492 .286 .361 .418 39 20 135
Community Average 404 .273 .341 .380 29 14 106
Avg - 5% 384 .259 .324 .342 27 13 100
Avg - 2 Std Dev 227 .248 .301 .303 9 2 47

Thanks to all who participated. The final projection uses 76 entries (after I removed 4-5 crazy-to-impossible entries), and came out much more realistic that I originally thought. Full spreadsheet of the data is available here.

Obviously, we have a bit of a bias when making these so I thought I'd do some PECOTA-style adjustments to our average to come up with a more well rounded picture. For an unbiased projection I simply subtracted 5% from each category (10% for SLG). Then I gave you a High and a LOW projection by adding or subtracting the standard deviation.

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this is all well and good. but where's the groundbreaking analysis on how jerry owens is not a good baseball player?

i’ve been sharpening my knives for that one – will it go the way of the getz interview?

our schtick is old

by larry on Feb 11, 2009 1:57 PM CST reply actions  

The rate stats for the -5% projection

are damn close to PECOTA 259/324/341 vs. 251/316/344

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Feb 11, 2009 2:13 PM CST reply actions  

george meets el presidente

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCx3fG-MIpg

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Feb 11, 2009 2:26 PM CST reply actions  

sorry, could you clarify on - 5%?

did you restrict the top five percent of the distribution for each category and then average out?

by onlysoxfaninboston on Feb 11, 2009 2:39 PM CST reply actions  

It's considerably unscientific

I removed 4 or 5 nonsensical entries, the one who said “Fuck you cheat” and gave gets an SLG of 1.300.

Then I just straight averaged them…

For -5, I did just that, subtracted 5 from average on each category (10% for SLG)

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Feb 11, 2009 3:00 PM CST up reply actions  

was it Fuck_you_cheat?

because that’s one of my registered names on sbnation.

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 11, 2009 3:02 PM CST up reply actions  

I bet it was an Englisman.

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 3:04 PM CST up reply actions  

*Englishman", dammit.

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 3:06 PM CST reply actions  

And now I can't effin' hit the reply button. Screw it.

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 3:06 PM CST up reply actions  

You already taking the pain meds

from your “Club Foot” operation, WU. You need to wait until after the surgery.

"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."

by BobbySouthSide on Feb 11, 2009 3:13 PM CST up reply actions  

I bet mine was thrown out

I only had Getz at like 43 games started.

My president is white.

by JoeCoolMan24 on Feb 11, 2009 3:06 PM CST reply actions  

i bet you, like, $148 million that it wasn't.

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 11, 2009 3:09 PM CST up reply actions  

not exactly hard to figure out like who's was thrown out considering it's linked in the post.

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 12, 2009 9:01 AM CST up reply actions  

Roberto Alomar has HIV?

http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/02/11/alomar.aids.lawsuit/index.html

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Feb 11, 2009 3:55 PM CST reply actions  

that 400+ comment thread intimidates people.

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 11, 2009 3:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Only you intimidate people.

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 4:01 PM CST up reply actions  

just tdogg's friends.

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 11, 2009 4:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Tdogg has friends?

Your assertion is immediately suspect.

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 4:12 PM CST up reply actions  

not my assertion.

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 11, 2009 4:13 PM CST up reply actions  

wtf?

I take a day off and get dissed?I even have some OLD friends.

"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."

by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."

by Tdogg on Feb 11, 2009 9:11 PM CST up reply actions  

OT - Get stimulated!

It looks like the stimulus package is going to come in at a “reduced” $789 billion.

If my high school math is correct, it would take you 2,162 years to spend $789 billion if you were to spend $1 million A DAY during that time.

Just a fun stat to share with your great grandchildren who’ll be working on paying it off.

Now…where’s my piece of the pie? Gimme, gimme…I’m entitled, dammit!

"No one is sure what Colon has left in his 5-foot-11-inch, 250-plus-pound body." - Chicago Tribune 1/15/09

by tailgater on Feb 11, 2009 3:58 PM CST reply actions  

yeah. this country will last until our great grandchildren are alive.

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 11, 2009 3:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Just as long as it lasts until I check out...after that, they're on their own

"No one is sure what Colon has left in his 5-foot-11-inch, 250-plus-pound body." - Chicago Tribune 1/15/09

by tailgater on Feb 11, 2009 4:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Interesting article challenging the notion of innate talent

Success is all in the mind

For him, deliberate practice is the magic bullet that takes someone into the stratosphere of brilliance, whether they’re golfers or ballet stars, business tycoons or doctors. Not innate talent, which he’s not sure even exists, but practice, albeit practice of a particular, concentrated, gruelling kind.



Ericsson’s theories confound the beliefs of thousands of years. Now as Conradi eminent scholar at Florida State University in Tallahassee, where he has been based since 1992, his basic argument is that there’s probably no such thing as innate talent or, if there is, it’s overrated. The only thing he will allow is that very occasionally certain physical gifts, such as height in a basketballer, will help. But in every other case, what’s at work in such massive successes as golfer Woods is a complex cognitive process that pushes the body and mind to extraordinary heights.

White Sox: Trying to roll a hard six.

by vince_ on Feb 11, 2009 4:00 PM CST reply actions  

This is horse$h!t.

I am a natural talent. I practice nothing.

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 4:02 PM CST up reply actions  

and i bet this same fucker thinks there's no such thing as clutch.

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 11, 2009 4:05 PM CST up reply actions  

I guess he doesn't watch FSU football practices

and watch the, um, bretheren run rings around the statues knows as “Whitey”. Or notice that all cornerbacks in the NFL are African-American. Or that Jeremy Wariner is the only honky sprinter who is worth a tinker’s damn in the Olympics.

And, larry, I think he is taking dead aim at your contention that MLB players have “freakish” reaction time. (I believe you wrote that last spring.)

I knew I should’ve worked harder so my 5’9" frame could muscle up a 98 mph heater. If only I had repeated it more…

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 4:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Maybe read the entire quote (let alone the article) next time
The only thing he will allow is that very occasionally certain physical gifts, such as height in a basketballer, will help.

Last time I checked a musician, accountant, or lawyer’s height doesn’t really matter.

White Sox: Trying to roll a hard six.

by vince_ on Feb 11, 2009 4:25 PM CST up reply actions  

I read it. I get it.

I have to dis it – he’s from FSU.

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 4:27 PM CST up reply actions  

PS What about "perfect pitch" for a musician?

And you are going to tell me that 50 years of German/Russian/Chinese physiological assessment of children designed to segment the most “innately” talented specimens by talent is verkacht? I trust those folks who have no governemental limits and are not hamstrung by things like “free will”.

And might the ability to concentrate (i.e. spend agonizing hours practicing) be perhaps a bit related to genetics? Is ADD/ADHD genetic? I bet it just might be…

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 4:32 PM CST up reply actions  

I realize you are an OPOS and new ideas are difficult for you :)

But I really think you are missing the point, here. He’s not saying physical attributes never matter for all activities. But there are plenty of things people do that don’t require certain physical gifts to be an expert, and even for the ones that do, there are plenty of physically gifted people who never make it (like, toolsy ballplayers who never make the majors).

Finally, “perfect pitch” is totally overrated and not necessary to be a great musician. You can train yourself to have excellent relative pitch, and most really successful musicians do not have perfect pitch.

White Sox: Trying to roll a hard six.

by vince_ on Feb 11, 2009 4:40 PM CST up reply actions  

winningugly is going to fuck you up.

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 11, 2009 4:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Thank you for your accurate assessment.

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 7:10 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm with the OPOS

Even starting from a blank slate, people acquire skills at different rates even when similarly motivated. Why is that? Is that not “talent”?

Obviously, physical gifts are not sufficient to become elite at a task, but for many tasks they are necessary.

by hitlesswonder on Feb 11, 2009 5:00 PM CST up reply actions  

They address that at the end of the article

Although to them its more about motivation to put yourself through that:

And, most of all, he sees the true research frontier way out there in the unknown, shadowy, farthest depths of our psyches.

It’s the billion-dollar question: what motivates someone? “It’s one of the pieces we don’t understand well,” he says. “Can you take someone who isn’t motivated and make them motivated? How does someone develop into a highly motivated person who’s willing to engage in deliberate practice?”

White Sox: Trying to roll a hard six.

by vince_ on Feb 11, 2009 4:29 PM CST up reply actions  

if you add 5% to Getz's 2008 MLEs from

minor league splits you pretty much get the community slash line, except with the adjusted OBP.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Feb 11, 2009 4:07 PM CST reply actions  

he is?

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Feb 11, 2009 4:32 PM CST up reply actions  

and a two year +2 UZR avg

alright, i buy it.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Feb 11, 2009 5:02 PM CST up reply actions  

minus significant OBP i bet.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Feb 11, 2009 5:02 PM CST up reply actions  

yes, he is.

didn’t you notice the eyes when you met getz?

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 11, 2009 4:35 PM CST up reply actions  

in spittin' distance of it anyway.

if he’s lucky for his player type, he’ll peak at average for a few years.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Feb 11, 2009 4:32 PM CST up reply actions  

If he hits .27-anything or .28-anything Hoytsstash will be absolutely thrilled and ready to test

him for quick-hands syndrome……

"wow, yeah. cubs ST should be awesome. have a great time."
-by Larry on Jan. 9, 2009 3:09 PM PST

by Hoytsstash on Feb 11, 2009 4:13 PM CST reply actions  

so when's the next projection?

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Feb 11, 2009 4:35 PM CST reply actions  

...all alone again.

cheat, i think i’ve got the girl for you – interested?

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 11, 2009 4:44 PM CST up reply actions  

pfft

look at those shoes. Soft soles….

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Feb 11, 2009 4:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Who's looking at the shoes? Look at that head gear...

I bet she gives great helmet…

"would've been a sweep if pablo was here" -Kenwo-

by Hazymania on Feb 11, 2009 5:03 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

i'm glad someone appreciates her.

too bad you’re gay or i’d introduce you to her.

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 11, 2009 5:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Dammit Larry

I was happily in the closet until now. Now the cover’s blown. Ah well, time to break out the Sex and the City dvds and drink Cosmos till I’m silly.

Just don’t tell the girlfriend, she’ll be home in a few hours and then I’ll have some real explaining to do.

"would've been a sweep if pablo was here" -Kenwo-

by Hazymania on Feb 11, 2009 5:09 PM CST up reply actions  

your secret is safe with us.

now that we got rid of HSA, no women read this site.

"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."

by larry on Feb 11, 2009 5:10 PM CST up reply actions  

on the contrary

there’s always colin

I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.

by thatshortkid on Feb 11, 2009 5:56 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

This is a great thread.

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 7:11 PM CST up reply actions  

PaulieK14 and another newer commenter

one who agreed yesterday that these stat things are boring, are women

And I know of at least two non-registered females who routinely read, my mom and my sister ;)

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Feb 11, 2009 7:25 PM CST up reply actions  

now we know the *real* reason behind asking us to clean up our posts

HI CHEAT’S MOM

I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.

by thatshortkid on Feb 11, 2009 7:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Nice ass. For an old broad.

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 7:46 PM CST up reply actions  

are you even allowed to call others "old" ?

relative to infinity, anything’s got to be younger by a lot.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Feb 11, 2009 8:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Howz Mama?

Probably more my age.

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 7:50 PM CST up reply actions  

LOL.

Never mind. I have a rarity – one who gets smaller with age. I’ll keep her.

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 7:58 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes, but eventually you'll need to remove the padlock

from the basemant door and let her up for a meal.

"No one is sure what Colon has left in his 5-foot-11-inch, 250-plus-pound body." - Chicago Tribune 1/15/09

by tailgater on Feb 11, 2009 9:52 PM CST up reply actions  

"basement"...ugh

"No one is sure what Colon has left in his 5-foot-11-inch, 250-plus-pound body." - Chicago Tribune 1/15/09

by tailgater on Feb 11, 2009 9:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Was HSA actually ousted?

You mean someone is actually TRYING to turn this site into a sausage farm?

"No one is sure what Colon has left in his 5-foot-11-inch, 250-plus-pound body." - Chicago Tribune 1/15/09

by tailgater on Feb 11, 2009 9:50 PM CST up reply actions  

From today's BP chat w. John Perroto:

"Clint (Chicago): Do you hear of any tricks Kenny Williams may have up his sleeve before Opening Day, or is this our White Sox team?

John Perrotto: He says he’s done but I don’t think he ever is. I know they like Getz but I could see Orlando Hudson landing here on a small contract."

Who’s this “Orlando Hudson” fella — anyone ever heard of him? Sounds like he might be worth pursuing …

by The Actual El Guapo on Feb 11, 2009 5:18 PM CST reply actions  

wasn't he in that movie with David Duchovny about aliens?

You know, the one that wasn’t X-Files and had Stiffler in it?

"would've been a sweep if pablo was here" -Kenwo-

by Hazymania on Feb 11, 2009 5:23 PM CST up reply actions  

I thought it was "Ghostbusters".

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 7:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Turns out it was "Evolution"

"would've been a sweep if pablo was here" -Kenwo-

by Hazymania on Feb 11, 2009 10:31 PM CST up reply actions  

wait, so it wasn't zoolander?

I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.

by thatshortkid on Feb 11, 2009 10:37 PM CST up reply actions  

no but Orlando Hudson was also in Office Space for a minute...

apparently he was addicted to crack, but now he is off it and trying to stay clean

"would've been a sweep if pablo was here" -Kenwo-

by Hazymania on Feb 11, 2009 11:24 PM CST up reply actions  

no no

He played for the cubs

"would've been a sweep if pablo was here" -Kenwo-

by Hazymania on Feb 11, 2009 11:24 PM CST up reply actions  

Interesting

Not going to lose a lot of sleep on that one, but that would be pretty money. I’m sure Dante will be weighing in on this soon. Maybe He’s not as good of a fit as Bobby though…

by Crede's Crew on Feb 11, 2009 7:15 PM CST up reply actions  

Did anyone else

take into account muscle atrophy from being hog tied in Colin’s basement for a month?

by jc2313 on Feb 12, 2009 9:00 AM CST reply actions  

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