Chris Getz Community Projection Results
by The Cheat on Feb 11, 2009 1:53 PM CST
98 comments
Thanks to all who participated. The final projection uses 76 entries (after I removed 4-5 crazy-to-impossible entries), and came out much more realistic that I originally thought. Full spreadsheet of the data is available here.
Obviously, we have a bit of a bias when making these so I thought I'd do some PECOTA-style adjustments to our average to come up with a more well rounded picture. For an unbiased projection I simply subtracted 5% from each category (10% for SLG). Then I gave you a High and a LOW projection by adding or subtracting the standard deviation.
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this is all well and good. but where's the groundbreaking analysis on how jerry owens is not a good baseball player?
i’ve been sharpening my knives for that one – will it go the way of the getz interview?
our schtick is old
by larry on Feb 11, 2009 1:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
The rate stats for the -5% projection
are damn close to PECOTA 259/324/341 vs. 251/316/344
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on Feb 11, 2009 2:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
that's what i learned on radio lab anyway
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Feb 11, 2009 4:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah... one of their more questionable episodes from a scientific perspective...
but I was still entertained.
by CatBrains on Feb 11, 2009 4:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
george meets el presidente
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCx3fG-MIpg
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on Feb 11, 2009 2:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
sorry, could you clarify on - 5%?
did you restrict the top five percent of the distribution for each category and then average out?
by onlysoxfaninboston on Feb 11, 2009 2:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
It's considerably unscientific
I removed 4 or 5 nonsensical entries, the one who said “Fuck you cheat” and gave gets an SLG of 1.300.
Then I just straight averaged them…
For -5, I did just that, subtracted 5 from average on each category (10% for SLG)
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on Feb 11, 2009 3:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
was it Fuck_you_cheat?
because that’s one of my registered names on sbnation.
"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."
by larry on Feb 11, 2009 3:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I bet it was an Englisman.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 3:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
*Englishman", dammit.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 3:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
And now I can't effin' hit the reply button. Screw it.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 3:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You already taking the pain meds
from your “Club Foot” operation, WU. You need to wait until after the surgery.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Feb 11, 2009 3:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I bet mine was thrown out
I only had Getz at like 43 games started.
My president is white.
by JoeCoolMan24 on Feb 11, 2009 3:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
i bet you, like, $148 million that it wasn't.
"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."
by larry on Feb 11, 2009 3:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
...what the hell are you talking about.
My president is white.
by JoeCoolMan24 on Feb 11, 2009 8:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
not exactly hard to figure out like who's was thrown out considering it's linked in the post.
"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."
by larry on Feb 12, 2009 9:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
wow, somebody wants to play for the nats
by onlysoxfaninboston on Feb 11, 2009 3:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
and he must not care about baseball all that much, because he's playing for what will likely be a losing team
by onlysoxfaninboston on Feb 11, 2009 3:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
doesn't like baseball. but has a passion for money.
i’ve done my homework on adam dunn.
"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."
by larry on Feb 11, 2009 3:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
fuck_you_larry
that’s my other login on sbnation
by onlysoxfaninboston on Feb 11, 2009 4:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Roberto Alomar has HIV?
http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/02/11/alomar.aids.lawsuit/index.html
Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 11, 2009 3:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
that 400+ comment thread intimidates people.
"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."
by larry on Feb 11, 2009 3:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Only you intimidate people.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 4:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
just tdogg's friends.
"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."
by larry on Feb 11, 2009 4:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Tdogg has friends?
Your assertion is immediately suspect.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 4:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
not my assertion.
"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."
by larry on Feb 11, 2009 4:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
wtf?
I take a day off and get dissed?I even have some OLD friends.
"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."
by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."
by Tdogg on Feb 11, 2009 9:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OT - Get stimulated!
It looks like the stimulus package is going to come in at a “reduced” $789 billion.
If my high school math is correct, it would take you 2,162 years to spend $789 billion if you were to spend $1 million A DAY during that time.
Just a fun stat to share with your great grandchildren who’ll be working on paying it off.
Now…where’s my piece of the pie? Gimme, gimme…I’m entitled, dammit!
"No one is sure what Colon has left in his 5-foot-11-inch, 250-plus-pound body." - Chicago Tribune 1/15/09
by tailgater on Feb 11, 2009 3:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
yeah. this country will last until our great grandchildren are alive.
"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."
by larry on Feb 11, 2009 3:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just as long as it lasts until I check out...after that, they're on their own
"No one is sure what Colon has left in his 5-foot-11-inch, 250-plus-pound body." - Chicago Tribune 1/15/09
by tailgater on Feb 11, 2009 4:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting article challenging the notion of innate talent
For him, deliberate practice is the magic bullet that takes someone into the stratosphere of brilliance, whether they’re golfers or ballet stars, business tycoons or doctors. Not innate talent, which he’s not sure even exists, but practice, albeit practice of a particular, concentrated, gruelling kind.
…
Ericsson’s theories confound the beliefs of thousands of years. Now as Conradi eminent scholar at Florida State University in Tallahassee, where he has been based since 1992, his basic argument is that there’s probably no such thing as innate talent or, if there is, it’s overrated. The only thing he will allow is that very occasionally certain physical gifts, such as height in a basketballer, will help. But in every other case, what’s at work in such massive successes as golfer Woods is a complex cognitive process that pushes the body and mind to extraordinary heights.
White Sox: Trying to roll a hard six.
by vince_ on Feb 11, 2009 4:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
This is horse$h!t.
I am a natural talent. I practice nothing.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 4:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
and i bet this same fucker thinks there's no such thing as clutch.
"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."
by larry on Feb 11, 2009 4:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess he doesn't watch FSU football practices
and watch the, um, bretheren run rings around the statues knows as “Whitey”. Or notice that all cornerbacks in the NFL are African-American. Or that Jeremy Wariner is the only honky sprinter who is worth a tinker’s damn in the Olympics.
And, larry, I think he is taking dead aim at your contention that MLB players have “freakish” reaction time. (I believe you wrote that last spring.)
I knew I should’ve worked harder so my 5’9" frame could muscle up a 98 mph heater. If only I had repeated it more…
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 4:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe read the entire quote (let alone the article) next time
The only thing he will allow is that very occasionally certain physical gifts, such as height in a basketballer, will help.
Last time I checked a musician, accountant, or lawyer’s height doesn’t really matter.
White Sox: Trying to roll a hard six.
by vince_ on Feb 11, 2009 4:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I read it. I get it.
I have to dis it – he’s from FSU.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 4:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
PS What about "perfect pitch" for a musician?
And you are going to tell me that 50 years of German/Russian/Chinese physiological assessment of children designed to segment the most “innately” talented specimens by talent is verkacht? I trust those folks who have no governemental limits and are not hamstrung by things like “free will”.
And might the ability to concentrate (i.e. spend agonizing hours practicing) be perhaps a bit related to genetics? Is ADD/ADHD genetic? I bet it just might be…
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I realize you are an OPOS and new ideas are difficult for you :)
But I really think you are missing the point, here. He’s not saying physical attributes never matter for all activities. But there are plenty of things people do that don’t require certain physical gifts to be an expert, and even for the ones that do, there are plenty of physically gifted people who never make it (like, toolsy ballplayers who never make the majors).
Finally, “perfect pitch” is totally overrated and not necessary to be a great musician. You can train yourself to have excellent relative pitch, and most really successful musicians do not have perfect pitch.
White Sox: Trying to roll a hard six.
by vince_ on Feb 11, 2009 4:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
winningugly is going to fuck you up.
"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."
by larry on Feb 11, 2009 4:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you for your accurate assessment.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 7:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with the OPOS
Even starting from a blank slate, people acquire skills at different rates even when similarly motivated. Why is that? Is that not “talent”?
Obviously, physical gifts are not sufficient to become elite at a task, but for many tasks they are necessary.
by hitlesswonder on Feb 11, 2009 5:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What if some people are better at practicing than others? Is that innate?
by hitlesswonder on Feb 11, 2009 4:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
They address that at the end of the article
Although to them its more about motivation to put yourself through that:
And, most of all, he sees the true research frontier way out there in the unknown, shadowy, farthest depths of our psyches.
It’s the billion-dollar question: what motivates someone? “It’s one of the pieces we don’t understand well,” he says. “Can you take someone who isn’t motivated and make them motivated? How does someone develop into a highly motivated person who’s willing to engage in deliberate practice?”
White Sox: Trying to roll a hard six.
by vince_ on Feb 11, 2009 4:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
if you add 5% to Getz's 2008 MLEs from
minor league splits you pretty much get the community slash line, except with the adjusted OBP.
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Feb 11, 2009 4:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
We are awesome. Let's start a blog.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 4:12 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
If Getz hits the community projection and plays plus defense, he's basically an average second-baseman, right?
by CWSKeith on Feb 11, 2009 4:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he's Aki Iwamura
So I would think yes. And for cheap.
by hitlesswonder on Feb 11, 2009 4:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
he is?
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Feb 11, 2009 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Iwamura at 2B last season:
avg .274 OBP .349 SLG .380
by hitlesswonder on Feb 11, 2009 4:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
and a two year +2 UZR avg
alright, i buy it.
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Feb 11, 2009 5:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
minus significant OBP i bet.
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Feb 11, 2009 5:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yes, he is.
didn’t you notice the eyes when you met getz?
"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."
by larry on Feb 11, 2009 4:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
in spittin' distance of it anyway.
if he’s lucky for his player type, he’ll peak at average for a few years.
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Feb 11, 2009 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If he hits .27-anything or .28-anything Hoytsstash will be absolutely thrilled and ready to test
him for quick-hands syndrome……
"wow, yeah. cubs ST should be awesome. have a great time."
-by Larry on Jan. 9, 2009 3:09 PM PST
by Hoytsstash on Feb 11, 2009 4:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
so when's the next projection?
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Feb 11, 2009 4:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think I'll post one tonight before I hit the sack
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on Feb 11, 2009 4:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
...all alone again.
cheat, i think i’ve got the girl for you – interested?
"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."
by larry on Feb 11, 2009 4:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
pfft
look at those shoes. Soft soles….
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on Feb 11, 2009 4:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Who's looking at the shoes? Look at that head gear...
I bet she gives great helmet…
"would've been a sweep if pablo was here" -Kenwo-
by Hazymania on Feb 11, 2009 5:03 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
i'm glad someone appreciates her.
too bad you’re gay or i’d introduce you to her.
"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."
by larry on Feb 11, 2009 5:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Dammit Larry
I was happily in the closet until now. Now the cover’s blown. Ah well, time to break out the Sex and the City dvds and drink Cosmos till I’m silly.
Just don’t tell the girlfriend, she’ll be home in a few hours and then I’ll have some real explaining to do.
"would've been a sweep if pablo was here" -Kenwo-
by Hazymania on Feb 11, 2009 5:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
your secret is safe with us.
now that we got rid of HSA, no women read this site.
"Still, there is considerable evidence that Mr. Williams was truly sick, including the fact that he has since died."
by larry on Feb 11, 2009 5:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
on the contrary
there’s always colin
I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.
by thatshortkid on Feb 11, 2009 5:56 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
This is a great thread.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 7:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
PaulieK14 and another newer commenter
one who agreed yesterday that these stat things are boring, are women
And I know of at least two non-registered females who routinely read, my mom and my sister ;)
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on Feb 11, 2009 7:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
now we know the *real* reason behind asking us to clean up our posts
HI CHEAT’S MOM
I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.
by thatshortkid on Feb 11, 2009 7:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice ass. For an old broad.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 7:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
are you even allowed to call others "old" ?
relative to infinity, anything’s got to be younger by a lot.
Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.
by colintj on Feb 11, 2009 8:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
hey your sister, how she doin'
by onlysoxfaninboston on Feb 11, 2009 7:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
She's bigger than Liz
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on Feb 11, 2009 7:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Howz Mama?
Probably more my age.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 7:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
They don't get smaller as they age
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on Feb 11, 2009 7:57 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
LOL.
Never mind. I have a rarity – one who gets smaller with age. I’ll keep her.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 7:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but eventually you'll need to remove the padlock
from the basemant door and let her up for a meal.
"No one is sure what Colon has left in his 5-foot-11-inch, 250-plus-pound body." - Chicago Tribune 1/15/09
by tailgater on Feb 11, 2009 9:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
"basement"...ugh
"No one is sure what Colon has left in his 5-foot-11-inch, 250-plus-pound body." - Chicago Tribune 1/15/09
by tailgater on Feb 11, 2009 9:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Was HSA actually ousted?
You mean someone is actually TRYING to turn this site into a sausage farm?
"No one is sure what Colon has left in his 5-foot-11-inch, 250-plus-pound body." - Chicago Tribune 1/15/09
by tailgater on Feb 11, 2009 9:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
her legs are oddly shaped
but I’m not complaining
by Crede's Crew on Feb 11, 2009 7:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
From today's BP chat w. John Perroto:
"Clint (Chicago): Do you hear of any tricks Kenny Williams may have up his sleeve before Opening Day, or is this our White Sox team?
John Perrotto: He says he’s done but I don’t think he ever is. I know they like Getz but I could see Orlando Hudson landing here on a small contract."
Who’s this “Orlando Hudson” fella — anyone ever heard of him? Sounds like he might be worth pursuing …
by The Actual El Guapo on Feb 11, 2009 5:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
wasn't he in that movie with David Duchovny about aliens?
You know, the one that wasn’t X-Files and had Stiffler in it?
"would've been a sweep if pablo was here" -Kenwo-
by Hazymania on Feb 11, 2009 5:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought it was "Ghostbusters".
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Feb 11, 2009 7:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Turns out it was "Evolution"
"would've been a sweep if pablo was here" -Kenwo-
by Hazymania on Feb 11, 2009 10:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
wait, so it wasn't zoolander?
I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.
by thatshortkid on Feb 11, 2009 10:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
no but Orlando Hudson was also in Office Space for a minute...
apparently he was addicted to crack, but now he is off it and trying to stay clean
"would've been a sweep if pablo was here" -Kenwo-
by Hazymania on Feb 11, 2009 11:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
Not going to lose a lot of sleep on that one, but that would be pretty money. I’m sure Dante will be weighing in on this soon. Maybe He’s not as good of a fit as Bobby though…
by Crede's Crew on Feb 11, 2009 7:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
apropos of noting -- i didn't know robbie alomar was HIV/pos
by RoyEgan on Feb 11, 2009 10:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Apparently that's BS
Just to be sure, though, we should trade for him again.
Chicago White Sox Examiner — Your what hurts?
by UribeAuction on Feb 12, 2009 1:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
discounting the inputs for "crazy-to-impossible"
what world do you live in, cheat?
by explodingpinwheelsforfunandprofit on Feb 12, 2009 2:19 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Did anyone else
take into account muscle atrophy from being hog tied in Colin’s basement for a month?
by jc2313 on Feb 12, 2009 9:00 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
He was at least out of the scooter at SoxFest
Replacing "Chicago Tough" with "Cuban Pride"
by Brush Back on Feb 12, 2009 12:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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