Alexei Ramirez Community Projection Results

by The Cheat on Feb 13, 2009 1:45 PM CST Comment 47 comments

South Side Sox' Alexei Ramirez Community Projection

	PA	2B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	E
Average + Std Dev	613	34	27	40	63	.299	.341	.515	10
Community Average	561	28	22	30	76	.288	.326	.478	17
Average - Std Dev	510	23	17	21	88	.277	.310	.441	23

I was a little bit surprised that these projections weren't overly optimistic. The counting stats could probably use my plucked from thin air 5% adjustment, but the rate stats seem pretty accurate to me. The community agrees that Alexei will be more patient in '09, and could see an up-tick in his strikeout rate as a result...

I agree. And it's only as I'm writing this that I realize I didn't even log an entry of my own, so I can't even say for sure what I would have given him without viewing the community's numbers. I think I might have ended up on the high side.

Raw Spreadsheet data here.

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link to the individual predictions?

White Sox Outsider 2009 is the greatest book about the White Sox, published in 2009, and written by a guy who likes hanging around statues. Ever.

by larry on Feb 13, 2009 1:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

comin' up

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Feb 13, 2009 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

refresh

The link’s there now

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Feb 13, 2009 1:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't "conventional wisdom" say that his O should go down as he

moves to a tougher D position?

Or maybe I made that up?

"A good cigar is like a beautiful chick with a great body who also knows the American League box scores. "
Klinger

by Chiburb on Feb 13, 2009 2:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

why would that happen?

White Sox Outsider 2009 is the greatest book about the White Sox, published in 2009, and written by a guy who likes hanging around statues. Ever.

by larry on Feb 13, 2009 2:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That was kind of my reaction.

It’s an interesting thought (and it makes me think of a basketball player expending a lot of energy on D, thus tiring himself for O), but I’m not familiar with the idea in baseball. I think we’ve all heard of some players claiming that it is difficult to DH because it’s hard to keep your head in the game when not playing D. But I don’t know which way that cuts for moving to a “tougher” position.

by palehose67 on Feb 13, 2009 2:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

maybe at Catcher

but I dont think anywhere else

by e-gus on Feb 13, 2009 2:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Good point.

by palehose67 on Feb 13, 2009 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure. Perhaps it's draining? Maybe the effects show in the 2nd half?

I don’t remember, but I THINK it was mentioned in an early Abstract. I’ll leaf through them over the weekend and see if I can find it.

"A good cigar is like a beautiful chick with a great body who also knows the American League box scores. "
Klinger

by Chiburb on Feb 13, 2009 2:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

perhaps you're thinking of positional adjustments

whereby it is asserted that a player whose offense is less can be equally/more valuable than a guy at another position if the guy who hits less is playing a tougher position, like SS.

White Sox Outsider 2009 is the greatest book about the White Sox, published in 2009, and written by a guy who likes hanging around statues. Ever.

by larry on Feb 13, 2009 2:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

According to Sony, we are the 21st ranked team

Royals are 20th. Cubs are 3rd. Twins are 9th.

My president is white.

by JoeCoolMan24 on Feb 13, 2009 2:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

the japanese don't know shit about major league baseball.

White Sox Outsider 2009 is the greatest book about the White Sox, published in 2009, and written by a guy who likes hanging around statues. Ever.

by larry on Feb 13, 2009 2:15 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

I really like shaftr's projections

Of .305 average, 31 HR.

My president is white.

by JoeCoolMan24 on Feb 13, 2009 2:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

yes, I was optimistic

I think I took a look at a Soriano year for reference.

rmlumley.com

by shaftr on Feb 13, 2009 7:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not buying

that the position change correlates to O. It is likely, however, that 2009 will be his peak year w.r.t offensive production simply based on his age:

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/03/age-and-batting-performance-in-mlb/

by Andronicus on Feb 13, 2009 2:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I love Colin's prediction

700 ab’s and 5 errors in the field…. That’s a bold statement…. Hello Gold Glove.

I am going to ask you one time, and i'm gonna ask you nice. Where the fuck is Ringo bitch.

by ElDiablo on Feb 13, 2009 2:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

throwing errors strike me as a potentially large problem for alexei.

White Sox Outsider 2009 is the greatest book about the White Sox, published in 2009, and written by a guy who likes hanging around statues. Ever.

by larry on Feb 13, 2009 2:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Somehow i am already imagining him running into the hole.....

Spin jump and airmail into the stands…. i will set the over under at 3….

I am going to ask you one time, and i'm gonna ask you nice. Where the fuck is Ringo bitch.

by ElDiablo on Feb 13, 2009 2:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I take the over

on airmails into the stands

by jc2313 on Feb 13, 2009 3:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

rofl

So, if I am reading the two options correctly . . .
we can either a) keep dye or b) trade dye . . . is that you Phil Rogers?

by jc2313 on Dec 11, 2008 4:53 PM CST up reply recommended Unrec 1

by Where Triples Go to Die on Feb 13, 2009 4:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

it was totally pulled outta my ass

i don’t know shit about what a usual error rate for a SS is and i didn’t care enough to look it up. i just remember thinking that i didn’t want to give too many.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Feb 13, 2009 3:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You think?

Omar Vizquel is the only SS in the 2000s that has played 150+ games and had 5 errors or less in a season . . . I would say the statistical probability of Alexei having 5 errors and playing 150+ games is about the same as a certain Chris Getz interview appearing on this site.

by jc2313 on Feb 13, 2009 3:31 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs

oh, i liked this post.

White Sox Outsider 2009 is the greatest book about the White Sox, published in 2009, and written by a guy who likes hanging around statues. Ever.

by larry on Feb 13, 2009 3:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

dad?

So, if I am reading the two options correctly . . .
we can either a) keep dye or b) trade dye . . . is that you Phil Rogers?

by jc2313 on Dec 11, 2008 4:53 PM CST up reply recommended Unrec 1

by Where Triples Go to Die on Feb 13, 2009 4:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

*700 PAs

by 3E8 on Feb 13, 2009 8:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Crede and the twins not a done deal yet....

I really can’t believe he want’s 7-8 million guaranteed… in today’s free agent market… That Scott Boras is one hell of an agent.

I am going to ask you one time, and i'm gonna ask you nice. Where the fuck is Ringo bitch.

by ElDiablo on Feb 13, 2009 2:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

link...

http://blogs2.startribune.com/blogs/neal/2009/02/13/how-much-is-joe-crede-worth/

I am going to ask you one time, and i'm gonna ask you nice. Where the fuck is Ringo bitch.

by ElDiablo on Feb 13, 2009 2:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

JRE has Alexei turning into Yuniesky Betancourt with the bat in '09

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Feb 13, 2009 3:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I was pretty shocked that his predicted SLG% actually wasn't the lowest, although the two lower are from an unknown poster and another whose name I don't recognize.

by CWSKeith on Feb 13, 2009 4:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Larry

the verdict is in, I emailed you

"KenWO
no point in arguing with people who are blinded from reality..."
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 29, 2008 6:49 PM

by Illini0509 on Feb 13, 2009 3:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

88 BB

Would make him good for 7th in the AL last year. Sandwiched between Thome and Mauer.

by krushcuts on Feb 13, 2009 3:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

SoB

thought BB meant Bats Broken

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Feb 13, 2009 4:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

the .900 ops and 50 doubles are pretty nice too

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Feb 13, 2009 4:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Highest OPS for a regular poster,

tailgater – .915, followed closely by WTGTD (“I am not going out like SSH.”) at .900.

Lowest reg. was JRE at .710, followed closely by rhythm at .720.

That’s why they play the games.

"I am not going out like SSH. "
by WTGTD, 12/3/08

by ballyb on Feb 13, 2009 4:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wow, didn't realize I was so pessimistic

My method was to first dream up numbers for PA, BB, and extra base hits, then to calculate the OBA and slugging percentage from those values.

What I find interesting is Cheat’s comment that the counting stats were off, but that the rate stats made sense given that I used the counting stats I made up to calculate the rate stats I entered.

Anyways, shows what I know. I hope he grossly out-produces the numbers I came up with.

You are right. But larry is actually a prick too.
- HSA 01/07/09

by rhythm on Feb 13, 2009 5:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Top 100 Prospects

The Best of the Best

by Kevin Goldstein

Baseball Prospectus is proud to present its Top 100 Prospects list for 2009. Compiled by Kevin Goldstein after months of research and analysis, the list represents the best balance of skills analysis and performance analysis in the industry.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8506

"I am not going out like SSH. "
by WTGTD, 12/3/08

by ballyb on Feb 13, 2009 5:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe I calculated wrong

but I think mostly everyone has way too many HRs and doubles to come out with a high .400s SLG. I predicted his doubles would take a jump and his HRs would drop, for example. Though I wouldn’t be awfully surprised if his HRs jumped and his AVG dropped.

by Daniel Berlyn on Feb 13, 2009 6:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

youre right

i knew it looked wrong taking a wild stab at it, but i dint figure to get called out.
based on my numbers i made up the slg% should be .540(with no triples), but I guessed .485.

So do I still think he gets the .818 OPS or the new total of .873 OPS?
yes.
I’ll accept the .818 and hope he hits 55 balls hard enough for the 30 doubles and 25 HR to get the .873, better make it .882 with 3 triples for good measure.

if this math is rightm then i dont feel so bad about driving home anymore.

by e-gus on Feb 14, 2009 2:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs