Josh Fields Community Projection Results

Overall, I didn't have to do much to clean up this projection, only deleting two clearly erroneous entries. I suspect that's because you can pretty much justify any projection from 35 HRs (roughly Fields' prorated total in '07) to 3 Games Started at 3B (I assume WTGTD has Fields shifting to 1B to take over for Konerko).


South Side Sox' Josh Fields Community Projection

GS AB 2B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG Errors
Avg + Std Dev 142 510 29 30 59 133 .267 .339 .505 12
Community Average 115 434 22 23 45 123 .252 .322 .462 18
Avg - 5% 109 412 21 22 43 136 .240 .306 .439 17
Community Average 87 358 15 17 31 123 .238 .304 .420 24

My own personal projection (.255/.325/.465) was remarkably close to the finished community projection, though I had one of the lowest HR rates of anyone. As a group, the slugging percentage seemed a bit detached from the counting stats, but otherwise it looks to me like another decent projection, very near pecota's 60th percentile. I applied another 5% adjustment to knock down some optimism, but that only seemed to increase the disconnect between the counting stats (2B and HR) and SLG.

The one area I didn't know how to adjust up or down was the strikeouts. Adding or subtracting the standard deviation would have yielded some wonky results, so I just scaled the K-rate (K/AB) from the community average which resulted in a relatively stable number of strikeouts over a varying amount of at bats.

Raw spreadsheet data here.

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