Josh Fields Community Projection Results

by The Cheat on Feb 20, 2009 6:00 AM CST

Overall, I didn't have to do much to clean up this projection, only deleting two clearly erroneous entries. I suspect that's because you can pretty much justify any projection from 35 HRs (roughly Fields' prorated total in '07) to 3 Games Started at 3B (I assume WTGTD has Fields shifting to 1B to take over for Konerko).

South Side Sox' Josh Fields Community Projection

	GS	AB	2B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	Errors
Avg + Std Dev	142	510	29	30	59	133	.267	.339	.505	12
Community Average	115	434	22	23	45	123	.252	.322	.462	18
Avg - 5%	109	412	21	22	43	136	.240	.306	.439	17
Community Average	87	358	15	17	31	123	.238	.304	.420	24

My own personal projection (.255/.325/.465) was remarkably close to the finished community projection, though I had one of the lowest HR rates of anyone. As a group, the slugging percentage seemed a bit detached from the counting stats, but otherwise it looks to me like another decent projection, very near pecota's 60th percentile. I applied another 5% adjustment to knock down some optimism, but that only seemed to increase the disconnect between the counting stats (2B and HR) and SLG.

The one area I didn't know how to adjust up or down was the strikeouts. Adding or subtracting the standard deviation would have yielded some wonky results, so I just scaled the K-rate (K/AB) from the community average which resulted in a relatively stable number of strikeouts over a varying amount of at bats.

Raw spreadsheet data here.

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Comments

Damn I was very close to community projection.

I had 119 games (4 off), 21 2B (1 off), 41 BB (4 off), .252 avg (exact same), .315 OBP (.007 off), .465 slg (.003 off), and 13 err (5 off).

my ********* is white

by JoeCoolMan24 on Feb 20, 2009 6:48 AM CST reply actions

Good - you are "average".

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 20, 2009 9:19 AM CST up reply actions

not provocative in his baseball commentary.

by larry on Feb 20, 2009 9:19 AM CST up reply actions

Had to make sure that larry "predicted"

(as promised) 5 errors. Didn’t disappoint.

by palehose67 on Feb 20, 2009 8:10 AM CST reply actions

I had to look, too.

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 20, 2009 9:19 AM CST up reply actions

unlike some people - "my book will be available for purchase on february 14"

i underpromise and overdeliver.

by larry on Feb 20, 2009 9:20 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Rec'd.

Quite the preponderance of that on this site.

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Feb 20, 2009 9:28 AM CST up reply actions

my next substantive post will be up by opening day.

i promise.

by larry on Feb 20, 2009 9:37 AM CST up reply actions

Indeed.

That book is NEVER coming out.

EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine

by Sox Machine on Feb 20, 2009 12:42 PM CST up reply actions

robert jenks: finesse pitcher

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/bobby-jenks-finesse-pitcher

by larry on Feb 20, 2009 9:13 AM CST reply actions

Accurate, no?

Bobby Jenks’ transformation from flame-throwing folklore to finesse pitching has been fascinating to watch. Chicago’s plus-sized closer has remained effective to this point (his 3.47 WPA in ‘08 was a career-best), but it would probably be best to tread cautiously here instead of investing a high pick. Jenks could well remain effective with plus control and groundball tendencies, but his descending strikeout rate and back issues bear watching.

"I never had sex with that Governor" -
Roland Burris

by Chiburb on Feb 20, 2009 9:25 AM CST up reply actions

john dewan

talked about this but noted his velocity has hardly dropped the past couple of years.

by Hatchetm on Feb 20, 2009 10:08 AM CST up reply actions

it stabilized in 2008 so it didn't drop again but it is down pretty significantly from 2005.

by larry on Feb 20, 2009 10:10 AM CST up reply actions

this is because he is off

the pizza and beer diet that he was on in 2005. I for one believe the sprint from the outfield in 2005 about killed him everytime. The near blacking out due to cholesterol blockages and suffering severly from the beer sweats will make your arm feel no pain and creates a gumby effect that allows the arm to fire the ball 5-7mph faster than normal.

I’ll use Uribe as exhibit two – he had a heck of an arm to go with that pot-belly.

"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."

by BobbySouthSide on Feb 20, 2009 10:17 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

wrecked

that was funny as hell

So, if I am reading the two options correctly . . .
we can either a) keep dye or b) trade dye . . . is that you Phil Rogers?

by jc2313 on Dec 11, 2008 4:53 PM CST up reply recommended Unrec 1

by Where Triples Go to Die on Feb 20, 2009 10:22 AM CST up reply actions

It seems like his fastball movement

has increased from his 2005 and 2006 years to the new Bobby Jenks. Its interesting that Bobby’s contact % has gone up while he has had such a drastic drop in LD. Do you think the drop in LD from over 25% down to 14% is due to more movement on his fastball? Can anyone break down his PitchFX data to see if as his fastball velocity decreased his movement increased? Seems like he is allowing weak contact. His BABIP went from the mid .300s in 2005 and 2006 to the mid .200s in 2007 and 2008 as well.

Sometimes I miss the days when if you thought the guy was a good ballplayer you were right because no one knew any better.

by bberdl20 on Feb 20, 2009 11:39 AM CST up reply actions

pfx only goes back to 07

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Feb 20, 2009 12:03 PM CST up reply actions

but my guess is that it isn't movement

but location. his fastball still has very little tail to it.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Feb 20, 2009 12:05 PM CST up reply actions

There's increased movement

but that’s because he was a 4-seam guy (mostly) in ‘05-’06, and he now goes mostly 2-seam, plus has the cutter.

Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
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by The Cheat on Feb 20, 2009 12:29 PM CST up reply actions

I wish Fangraphs

distinguished between 2-seam and 4-seam fastballs. I know its a lot to ask, but I think you are right. Bobby’s loss of velocity from 2006 to 2007 was most likely due to his 2-seamer having a slower average velocity. He used that pitch much more frequently in 2007 and 2008, thus the dip in velocity. He can still throw a 98MPH 4-seam.

Sometimes I miss the days when if you thought the guy was a good ballplayer you were right because no one knew any better.

by bberdl20 on Feb 20, 2009 2:53 PM CST up reply actions

i'm not sure if i've got a pfx google sheet for Bobby done up yet

i’ll look into it.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Feb 20, 2009 3:32 PM CST up reply actions

I don't agree with this

my Prime Minister is a boss eyed wanker

by hoodlight on Feb 20, 2009 5:33 PM CST up reply actions

i was pretty average too

22 doubles and 23 hr dead on, .261/.341/.440 damn close as well and my percentages are actually backed up by math. I had him higher on Ks(150) and errors(23) with 56 more AB.

I think with him and Getz I was being optimistic in that I gave them both a regular starters amount of at bats and then gave them the production we could hope for to justify all the ABs projected.

by e-gus on Feb 20, 2009 10:26 AM CST reply actions