AL Central Catcher WARs
In case some of you are wondering who the best is, they're up here on this plaque on the wall. The plaque for the alternates is down in the ladies room.
So let's figure it out, this here AL Central 2009. Position by position. We're starting with catcher.
unblurry version here
So What Now?
Behold: the notable catchers in the AL Central this season with projections for offense and defense, plucked from CHONE. Clarification: The "150" denotes that everything is denominated in 150 games played. R150 is offensive runs above average for all hitters. dR150 is defensive runs above average at that position per 150. pos150 is the Tango-derived position adjustment for catcher. WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement and I'm using a static 10 runs = 1 win conversion. If any of this looks weird or unfamiliar, go here and scroll down until you get to "Win Values". Fangraphs has basically codified this method of player analysis and Dave Cameron is exactly the guy to explain it.
Onward.
The Twins and Indians clearly come out on top at this position. The Twins are billed as Mauer, Morneau and Co. but it's only Mauer that has a truly unique skillset. They've been about equal as hitters over the past three seasons, but Mauer is worth 20 runs more because of his defense and position. Martinez is back this year, but we'll see what kind of production he provides and where he does it. Health is going to be a concern and Ryan Garko is pretty useless as first basemen go. Quickmath say:
Garko+VMart = 7.5 + 46.5 = 54 runs
VMart + Shoppach = 19.5 + 31.5 = 51 runs
Basically a wash. Martinez can be either an average first baseman or an outstanding catcher. He's good enough to carry Garko's lack of contribution and still give them better than average production over the two positions (avg = 20 runs). Given the exorbitant cost of first basemen on the open market, this is likely the most cost effective play for the Indians.
Considering the in-division competition, AJ doesn't give the Sox much of a leg up in terms of talent. He's giving up at least a half win to the expected competition in the division. He's made up for this in the past by playing a ton of games relative to the average catcher, but it's certainly possible his legs could go. Either way, the only way AJ climbs the table by the end of the season is once again avoiding injury and other time off while those with less fortitude weaken and shrivel. There's basically no way the Sox will make up ground on their foes on this front unless AJ includes a tire iron with his tools of ignorance.
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33 comments
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Comments
Meh, maybe it's because i just got home from work late but,
This is the longest and most thought out post that i could care less about. I definitely learned from the info but, i already knew that our catching tandem wasn’t the best in the division.. I’m sure it looks worse compared to the entire league or mlb.
Sometimes you don’t need fancy stats to tell you that joe mauer and vic martinez are good catchers. I think almost all average baseball fans could tell you that these guys are top 5 catchers.
It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by ElDiablo on Mar 1, 2009 4:43 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
i understand your point kenwo
but sometimes you need them purdy numbers to validate what could be faulty assumptions.
by onlysoxfaninboston on Mar 1, 2009 7:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
be gentle, satan. colin has feelings.
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by larry on Mar 1, 2009 9:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yes
ElDiablo gets it. Settle down with the designer stats. This isn’t fucking algebra, it’s baseball.
by astralpanda on Mar 1, 2009 2:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
algebra is such a challenge.
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
by colintj on Mar 1, 2009 3:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Genius is frequently unappreciated, colin.
Take comfort. After you are dead ED and AP will come to an epiphany and say, “Wow, that colin, he was a smart mofo!”.
But you’ll be dead, and unable to have the waves of peer acceptance wash over you.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 1, 2009 7:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
chicks don't dig algebra. they do dig baseball.
and college graduates.
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by larry on Mar 1, 2009 7:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And guys who interview semi-famous guys
and know how to use a tape machine.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 1, 2009 7:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
if i had that kind of opinion of myself, i wouldn't be hanging around here.
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
by colintj on Mar 1, 2009 8:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
3-x=1 x=?
So complicated!!!!!!
Confusion breeds success. If they don't know each other, opponents can't have strategy. GENIUS.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 2, 2009 5:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
"...includes a tire iron with his tools of ignorance."
That’s sheer poetry Colin – you do an alumni proud.
Wilder Bilked Money from Sox to Fund Struggling Gay Bar
by ChicagoPete on Mar 1, 2009 7:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
bowden falls on his sword
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by larry on Mar 1, 2009 10:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
A tale of two sports in the same city:
Bowden resigns in disgrace and Snyder spends >$150MM on 2 (TWO!) free agents.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 1, 2009 1:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So, it's snowing and looks utterly freezing outside.
And I’m getting ready to watch baseball! I need some starting line-ups. I have find my radio to get the pregame show going. I gotta get some beers! And where the hell has my Sox cap been hiding the last few months?
If you have nothing to add to the discussion. Continue sniffing glue.
by defensive indifference on Mar 1, 2009 12:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
i would imagine anywhere near the lake.
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by larry on Mar 1, 2009 12:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough, I live in the suburbs and it couldn't be sunnier.
by Grinder in Training on Mar 1, 2009 12:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, really?
It’s been snowing all day here. Huge flakes blowing around like crazy. It doesn’t look like it’s accumulated much though.
If you have nothing to add to the discussion. Continue sniffing glue.
by defensive indifference on Mar 1, 2009 12:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2009/03/camelback-snippet.html#more
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by larry on Mar 1, 2009 12:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not the dreaded Sunday Line-up!
Kidding aside…I’m excited to see Viciedo in action.
If you have nothing to add to the discussion. Continue sniffing glue.
by defensive indifference on Mar 1, 2009 12:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
45 m.p.h.?
jesse says fuck that
lilli too
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on Mar 1, 2009 3:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
pitching schedule for the next week
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by larry on Mar 1, 2009 12:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Prospect powering way up A's system
Chris Carter, a 22-year-old man-child who bashed 39 homers for Class A Stockton last season, has firmly established himself as Oakland’s first baseman of the future.
Meanwhile, he’s turning a ton of heads in the present.
“He hits some home runs in batting practice that just seem to go forever,” A’s manager Bob Geren gushed. “You watch Matt Holliday hit balls way out, and you kind of expect it. Carter hits balls just as far, though. Sometimes farther.”
http://mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090301&content_id=3901212&vkey=news_oak&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on Mar 1, 2009 3:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks.
You like pulling the wings off dead flies, don’t you Wiz?
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 1, 2009 7:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
nice comeback yesterday

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on Mar 1, 2009 3:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
oh indeed.
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on Mar 1, 2009 3:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Masset hurts himself in first start
After he was a long reliever for the White Sox and Reds last season, Nick Masset was told to spend his offseason preparing to become a starter.
Masset heeded the request by stepping up his workouts and dropping 15 pounds. With the fifth-starter role in the Reds’ rotation wide open, every outing this spring will count.
The first start in the right-hander’s audition did not go well. Masset was tagged for four runs, three earned, by the Red Sox in Saturday’s 16-5 rout, with some self-inflicted mistakes helping to do him in. So did his emotions.
“I think nerves were going a little too fast today,” said Masset, who gave up four hits and a walk with a hit batter and a wild pitch. “I needed to slow things down, and I really didn’t. I just let the game take over. I really wasn’t making my pitches.”
http://mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090228&content_id=3898620&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on Mar 1, 2009 3:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
these numbers are stupid. you're stupid.
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on Mar 1, 2009 5:06 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Excellent work, colintj
I look forward to the rest of what looks to be an analysis of each position. Bravo!
You are right. But larry is actually a prick too.
- HSA 01/07/09
by rhythm on Mar 2, 2009 11:36 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I keep screwing up links so i am practicing on this page
It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by ElDiablo on Mar 3, 2009 5:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
works ok
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on Mar 3, 2009 6:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just preview it before you post, to make sure it linked properly.
And don’t forget to check the box!!!
;)
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 3, 2009 9:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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