AL Central DH WARs
by colintj on Mar 12, 2009 9:00 AM CDT
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Travis Hafner?
That's what CHONE says. And CHONE certainly isn't projecting 150 games. Even still, that's a great rate. Personally, I have a hard time seeing Jim Thome being significantly less productive than Hafner. At best, Hafner duels Thome to a draw. Hafner's injury history is worse despite the Indians good medical staff (see: Will Carroll ) and his most recent good season is worse and less recent than The Gentleman Masher. The Indians, of course, can more capably shuffle their lineup to cover such a hole thanks to Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach.
The other real player here is Billy Butler, who wil be 23 this year. He's already in Kubel's realm and he may well break out. His top 3 comparables according to PECOTA are Dave Winfield, Prince Fielder and Boog Powell. So far he hasn't demonstrated anything like that kind of power, but he's still quite young.
But really, I don't think the Royals are anyone's biggest concern and it's nice to see that the better teams in the division have set the bar so low. The Tigers are stuck with Gary Sheffield's contract, Jason Kubel is no great shakes and Hafner's been covered. So this rests on Thome's health. So let's all heavily invest in Herm Schneider Magic Salve™. It comes with Kenny Williams' highest recommendation!
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easy heat not so easy.
“I’m better off not throwing as much, whether it’s here or in spring training,” he said. “I’m a high-effort guy. People say it’s looks easy, but I’m dialing it up every time I’m in. With the long spring training, I was going to pitch a lot. For me, I think it’s better to do it this way, to be honest.”
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-12-rogers-ted-lilly-wbcmar12,0,6789637.column
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Sheffield last is the division?
Joe Morgan would have an aneurysm if he saw that. He would then go on a rant about the computer that wrote Money Ball.
Yeah Im not buying that projection for Hafner
Then again Thome could just as easily miss half the season with injuries.
"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."
by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."
and yet his best seasons were after they started testing.
classic power hitter peak and now injuries. no mystery here. don’t sign players with the skill set of hafner to long term deals after they’ve entered their decline phase. thanks for playing, though, mark.
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A-Roid?
Worst Contract Eva?? (the one he just signed)
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Mar 12, 2009 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions
i doubt that. highly.
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There are so many bad contracts in baseball
His isn’t even in the top 25.
Confusion breeds success. If they don't know each other, opponents can't have strategy. GENIUS.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 12, 2009 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not the only one
http://www.mlbnewsonline.com/2009/03/alex-rodriguezs-hip-imperils-season.html
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Mar 12, 2009 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions
that's like, the stupidest post i've read in awhile. and i didn't even finish it. he's predicting that arod will be back in august?
no credibility. in the future, please link to shit that makes some sense.
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I am
He signed a 10-year $275 million dollar deal after 2007. He will be 42 when it runs out. He has played how many games and done how much damage to his body? I think he is going to start breaking down….that is a TON OF MONEY.
Maybe not worst ever…Kevin Brown comes to mind. But it is pretty bad, in my opinion.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Mar 12, 2009 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions
let me know how comparable players age.
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Who would you consider comparable?
Willie Mays? After age 35 he went downhill
Eddie Mathews? After 33 he faded
Hank Aaron was good until abut 39, no major injuries
Chipper pretty good through 36
Schmidt until 37 was good
Would you have paid Frank Thomas that money after he hit 35?
Not sure who else to compare too? Mantle and Griffey both broke down. Bonds, McGwire and Sosa were steroid freaks.
I don’t think I am that off base here?? This is a significant injury and he has 8 years left on that contract.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Mar 12, 2009 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions
please frame your answer in WAR.
if rodriguez were to produce like, say, mays’ “downhill” years, yes, he’d be about worth his contract.
http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/playerindex.htm
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Not sure how to really say he is worth his contract?
Lets stick with Mays. Age 34-42 his average WAR was 4.64.
A-Rod, last 5-years with Yankees average WAR was 6.92.
A-Rod is getting paid to perform like he did the last 5-years at a minimum (prior years with Rangers and Mariners were even better).
So, not sure if he plays like Mays until age 42 that he is worth his contract.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Mar 12, 2009 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions
what are you assuming a win costs.
and i think you also have trouble adding and dividing. please note the years for mays.
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Ah,
he was traded in 72’ and I counted that as an extra year. So my math is a little off…so his average WAR was 5.16.
I have no idea what a win costs??? I’nm new to the new math. I also have a feeling I am getting ready to be sucker punched.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Mar 12, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions
well, i'm not going to tell you what to assume.
use fangraphs, if you’d like, for a historical perspective on what they think it was. i think it’s a reasonable assumption that, over the course of his contract, the cost will be approximately $5 million at the minimum. you’re getting pretty close to ballpark for his contract with that value. but since we’re playing with some serious assumptions here, good cause to not declare it the worst contract eva.
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Well, there's the rub.
Three years from now, everyone remember that I said it wasn’t a good contract. I never said it was the worst eva, as I asked a question if it was. But, I do think it is a bad contact as I see him declining rapidly in the next few years.
Also as a point of reference, remember that I said McCarthey would turn out better than Danks…ouch.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Mar 12, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Players seem to be aging better these days
(Thomer is a great example, but you also could use Manny Ramirez, who is almost 37), don’t you agree? We have had the “worst contract evah” discussion this winter, and A-Rod isn’t in the top 25.
Yes, the Yanks overpaid (good to have Boras as a negotiator), but it’s probably not a “horrible” contract, unless his hip starts looking like Bo Jackson’s.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
Thome has been a DH for the past 5 years
and he isn’t worth $30 million a year.
Yeah, Manny has held up…but what does he do for the next 5-years?
There are a lot of players that hit 35/36 and fall off a cliff. A-Rod would still have 6 years left on his contract.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Mar 12, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions
I gave an example of older players still having worth.
And what Tdogg said. So there.
Who the eff knows “what happens in 5 years”? What is the present value of that income stream vs. the present value of his aggregate projected production? Based on those figures (which I bet Boras and Cashman have) it was deemed a fair contract.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
alright, the horse has been beaten
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Mar 12, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions
down goes bobby!
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by larry on Mar 12, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
That is fantastic,and cruel.
rec’d.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
Onward to Chicago!
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 12, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
well done, grasshopper.
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I don't agree with you
but I do acknowledge a large part of the 2nd half value dealt more with the “extra excitement” piece which is hard to quantify. I think we all agree he doesn’t get this deal if the steroid mess came out last year.
How much buzz does his 600, 700 or 800 homer generate now?
Still no where a “bad” contract in its context but there is potential for a bad ending.
"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."
by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."
worst ever?
try Darren Dreifort. $55M for 200 innings of well below league average production. Makes the Kevin Brown deal look like a bargain.
i'm thinking maybe we should wait a couple more years on this one, guys.
i know, i know. maybe i’m being too cautious. what, with waiting longer than one season and all before declaring something the worst contract ever.
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I just was thinking about it and threw it out there for discussion
didn’t think I’d get bitch slapped around, but I did. Apparently everyone thinks it is at least an adequate contract.
I don’t.
Would his sucking the rest of his career (which won’t happen) with the yankees being on the hook for the remainder of the contract effect them in anyway? Probably not much.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Mar 12, 2009 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions
probably should have asked that last question first.
in addition to “wait, doesn’t the contract go until 2031 anyway?”
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
Pretty sure, no. Ends in 2017.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Mar 12, 2009 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions
I think there is a lot of room
between adequate contract and worst ever.
plus, unlike the vast, vast majority of other contracts, arod's is insured.
limit your downside, eh.
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Yeah, if he can't play anymore
If he just declines rapidly, I doubt that insurance kicks in.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Mar 12, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions
But, that isnt likely
hence it is unlikely its anywhere near the worst contract ever.
if he can't play would be the point of the whole "worst contract ever" thing, right?
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not really
playing at a rapidly declining rate is a lot different than not playing at all. I never said he wouldn’t play anymore.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Mar 12, 2009 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions
same here
was shocked to see Hafner such an optimistic forecast for Hafner after the past two seasons… again, great work Colin
"KenWO
no point in arguing with people who are blinded from reality..."
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 29, 2008 6:49 PM
ugh, its early
"KenWO
no point in arguing with people who are blinded from reality..."
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 29, 2008 6:49 PM
black box models
are better predictors than common sense.
speaking of rushing prospects
the tigers actually seem to be seriously considering porcello for their opening day roster. great read from rosenthal about the pros and cons of such a decision. quite a dangerous game for the tigers, especially considering porecello wasn’t particularly dominant at high A (though he was quite impressive for his age and level). i think we earlier discussed on here how one year of AAA for a pitcher was a leading indicator of immediate success in the majors (50-50 success) while the absence of such experience was correlated with only a 20% immediate success rate.
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IMO that would be a bad, bad decision.
What is the best case for Porcello? Something like 150IP with a 4.30 era? So best case he’s about league average starter. What is the medium case? 150IP with a 4.75 era? Getting close to replacement level their and you waste a year of arb time.
well, the dilemma for the tigers is that they don't have much else.
although i’d point out that pecota doesn’t even agree with your best case being possible (though there is some noise in there w/r/t to what porcello was and was not throwing down in the minors as part of his development, which may be skewing his numbers a bit).
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Yea, I don't have access to the PECOTA percentile breakdowns, but I agree
that they have nothing else. My thoughts would be that they let Porcello start the year in the minors where he can pitch every 5 days and continue to work on his pitches without any pressure.
Meanwhile the Tigers can sort out what their chances of contending are. There is no rush. Come mid summer and the Tigers are hanging around and they need a boost, then he comes up and helps them.
again, part of the dilemma is that the central appears to be rather finely balanced.
as the twins illustrated last year, sending out replacement level when you have better sitting in your minors could be the difference between the playoffs and home. so, how good is porcello, how bad are the other options, and how much are you willing/able to sacrifice in development time for porcello in exchange for potenially more wins at the major league level?
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Tiggers want something NOW,
as their salary commitments are pretty high from the going-for-broke ‘08 year. Plus, Detroit needs to have wins or no one will pay to see them play – metro Detroit isn’t teeming with economic activity. They need a hook or three to bring fans to the park.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
not sure "watch rick porcello get lit up" night is going to draw the fans.
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I think throwing your #1 pick's FIRST START brings a few folks out.
Fidrych caught lightning in a bottle for them 30+ years ago – who knows about now?
Plus, I’d watch, just to see him tattooed. But that’s me – Mr. Schadenfreude.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
They really have nothing.
I don’t understand where all of this ‘the Tigers are going to bounce back’ talk is coming from. Willis & Roberts’ bad season last year weren’t flukes, Maggs & Guillen are a year older with less power, I don’t think Gerald Laird is going to enjoy hitting in Comerica Park, Inge has been a 2nd rate Crede throughout his career, I don’t think Verlander was a fluke last year either, and if Brandon Lyon couldn’t cut it in the NL West, how on earth is he going to do in the American League? I think they have to bring up Percello, if for no other reason than Leyland thinks that kid can save his job. If they bring him up, fine, bring him up and he’ll probably get wacked around just like the last super-hyped Tigers pitching prospect, Andrew Miller. The Tigers are a mess.
by Obama4cntrfld on Mar 12, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions
Thanks! Always nice to find people who love the Sox and have intelligent thoughts. Seriously, this is the only place I’ve found (other than Boers & Bernstein) who are ill at the thought of Jerry Ownes starting in center field.
by Obama4cntrfld on Mar 12, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions
You might have to keep looking for that "intelligent" part
Nothing but meatheads here.
Confusion breeds success. If they don't know each other, opponents can't have strategy. GENIUS.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 12, 2009 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions
taking off the training wheels
and handing the kid a license, never seems to be a good idea…
In fact, Dombrowski said that Porcello is more advanced than Bonderman was at the same stage, then rattled off the names of other young pitchers who advanced rapidly with some of his previous teams — Josh Beckett with the Marlins, Richard Dotson and Britt Burns with the White Sox.
"KenWO
no point in arguing with people who are blinded from reality..."
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 29, 2008 6:49 PM
yeah the evidence was pretty strong
and considering an even better prospect Price might be headed back for more seasoning makes this seem extra risky.
"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."
by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."
O/T Sicilian football derby
nice goal from a player called mascara funnily enough
I want a strawberry spinke
:)
What is both surprising and delightful is that spectators are allowed, and even expected, to join in the vocal part of the game…. There is no reason why the field should not try to put the batsman off his stroke at the critical moment by neatly timed disparagements of his wife’s fidelity and his mother’s respectability. ~George Bernard Shaw
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 12, 2009 12:52 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
perhaps i'll try that at a few of this next week's spring training games.
“i question your wife’s fidelity and your mother’s respectability!”
oh no he didn’t!
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on Mar 12, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
I was trying to find a new email signature since I've had the AB Giamatti (facing the fall alone) quote since October....here's on what I settled:
That’s the true harbinger of spring; not crocuses or swallows returning to Capistrano, but the sound of a bat on a ball. -Bill Veeck
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 12, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Still doesn't make up for your hate of her teen years, Chi.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
How could anyone not hate teenagers?
Give it another 6 years, WU. You’ll be wishing you’d left her in a dumpster when you still had the chance too.
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 12, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah teenagers are pretty much the worst.
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
teenagers aren't that bad
they might do and say an awful lot of dumb things, but they make me laugh quite often, especially the juniors/seniors that I have in class. Freshmen are another story…
brndnprkns: I'm pretty sure the "badass" value of your life is closer to Gigli than The Dark Knight
by whitesoxmatt on Mar 12, 2009 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions
how is that shit going?
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
now that i'm done coaching its fine.
during basketball season i had no time to do anything and got really behind in grading. theyre really good kids though for four out of my five classes
brndnprkns: I'm pretty sure the "badass" value of your life is closer to Gigli than The Dark Knight
by whitesoxmatt on Mar 12, 2009 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions
it's hard to imagine you as an OB or Eriksizzle.
then again, maybe it isn’t.
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
i'm all responsible now. its weird
i got an email from ms kenny today asking me how it was going. that was weird but apparently she teaches jr. high and some of her students go here
brndnprkns: I'm pretty sure the "badass" value of your life is closer to Gigli than The Dark Knight
by whitesoxmatt on Mar 12, 2009 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions
so the kids respect you and everything?
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
yea
they acknowledge that i carry myself more like a teacher than a student, so they think of me more as an elder than as a friend
brndnprkns: I'm pretty sure the "badass" value of your life is closer to Gigli than The Dark Knight
by whitesoxmatt on Mar 12, 2009 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions
How about the girls?
Grrrrrrrrrrrr.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
need to start covering up more
i dont know how their parents let them go to schol dressed like they do. god i sound old
brndnprkns: I'm pretty sure the "badass" value of your life is closer to Gigli than The Dark Knight
by whitesoxmatt on Mar 12, 2009 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions
girls basketball for some reason does not have this problem
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
they get to show off the goods to each other in the locker room
they’re not interested in petty things like “boys”
brndnprkns: I'm pretty sure the "badass" value of your life is closer to Gigli than The Dark Knight
by whitesoxmatt on Mar 12, 2009 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions
you gettin any of that interoffice cooze yet?
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
No, you're not.
You are being prudent. You have placed yourself in a high risk situation, noble as it is. Why do you think men are leaving the teaching profession?
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
you're changing lives, one day at a time matt.
does “carry myself…” mean “tell those stupid motherfuckers to keep quiet” ?
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
that and not getting dragged into many stupid conversations
and not laughing at the perverted jokes even though i really do find them funny because i’m not mature enough myself yet
brndnprkns: I'm pretty sure the "badass" value of your life is closer to Gigli than The Dark Knight
by whitesoxmatt on Mar 12, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions
A buddy of mine became a sub at our old high school and struggled with this as well...
A kid wore the t-shirt that has a picture of Wrigley and says “World’s Largest Gay Bar” on it.
He tried like hell to be professional and enforce that his shirt was inappropriate for school (made him turn it inside-out), despite the fact that he loved it and wanted to be wearing it himself. :)
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 12, 2009 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions
that's the worst thing you can call a brah, brah
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
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