White Sox Lock Up Gavin Floyd Long-Term
The White Sox made the longest spring training ever a little bit more exciting this weekend; first, naming Chris Getz their starting second baseman (leadoff hitter to follow), then signing Gavin Floyd to a 4-year extension.
Along with the news that Floyd had signed an extension came word that John Danks had (rightfully) turned down a similar offer, and Carlos Quentin had also turned down an extension. All three players have one year left before reaching arbitration eligibility. So Floyd's extension doesn't buy out any of his free agent years -- though it does contain a $9.5MM option for what would be his first year of free-agent-eligibility -- and the Sox don't have to be in any hurry to sign the other two.
I say that Danks rightfully turned down a similar extension because he's clearly a better pitcher than Floyd, and his closest comp, Boston's Jon Lester, just signed a 5/$30MM extension. From the Sox perspective, Danks turning them down isn't a big deal. They control his rights until 2012, and if they wanted to buy out any years of free-agency, to make a truly below-market deal, they would have had to offer at least 5 years.
Knowing how the Sox feel about long-term contracts to pitchers, it's best for the Sox to take a wait-and-see approach with Danks with the hopes that when he does sign on the dotted line -- and he will sign an extension eventually -- that they'll get a significant discount on a year or two a free-agency.
I also would have taken a wait-and-see approach with Quentin. We haven't done a community projection for him yet, but I expect him to have a slow first half coming off wrist surgery. If Quentin's merely productive this year, not MVP worthy, they might be able to lock him up at a later date for a well-below-market contract while buying out multiple years of free agency. So there's a bit of silver lining to both of those decisions.
Is Floyd Worth it?
Floyd's extension is remarkably similar to the one the Twins gave Scott Baker earlier this month and the one the Sox gave Buehrle prior to the '04 season.
Buehrle was a better pitcher than Floyd at the time of his extension -- although he was coming off of a down year -- but starting pitching salaries had yet to enter the ridiculous territory they currently reside. Baker, however, is a much more interesting comparison. He's also a better pitcher than Floyd -- though I'm sure there will be some here who disagree -- but they're in the same run-prevention ballpark.
Baker is a control pitcher who still manages to miss quite a few bats. As a result, he should be more reliably effective for the life of the contract based on most projection systems. But, as we've discussed before, we expect Floyd to be the type of pitcher who puts up solid K/BB numbers (just short of 3:1) this season, and expect a Jon Garland-like average-or-better production in the long term.
The one area of concernn I have is health. Floyd hasn't had any major arm issues, but I've never been a huge fan of his delivery, or the way he throws across his body. I'm no pitching mechanics expert, but I will say that his motion doesn't appear to be nearly as clean as Buehrle or Garland's when they signed their extensions.
As long as Floyd stays healthy, his contract should be an asset, even in these unceratin financial times. The Sox may have paid a bit of a big-market premium relative to Baker's extension, but I like to think of it as a Big Hairy Balls luxury tax.
Miller Time
Admit it, you thought I was going to make a Life Goes On reference. Nope. Sorry to disappoint.
Corky Miller had all but wrapped up the back-up catcher spot, but the Sox made it even more apparent Sunday with the trade of Chris Stewart to the Yankees. This marks the second AAA player moved in the last few days, both for the vaporous "future considerations." These moves are more about organizational depth than anything. Look for the Sox to pick up some minor league filler from the Yankees or Giants should they need it at some point this year.
Miller hasn't exactly been an offensive force in the majors. He's gotten only 172 at-bats since 2003, posting a paltry .122/.222/.169 batting line, including .083/.152/.133 in 60 at-bats last season. The Sox have caught lightning in a bottle before at backup catcher, with Chris Widger coming back from playing beer league softball before giving the Sox a capable backup for their World Series run. Here's hoping they've found another one.
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low risk/high reward
He also doesn’t care much for me, so I expect me posting on these things to piss him off.
by U-God on Feb 27, 2009 10:00 AM CST
by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 22, 2009 10:33 PM CDT reply actions
there's plenty of risk
They didn’t have to give him any long-term stability, and could have gone year-to-year for the length of this contract
Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
SouthSideSox on Facebook
Sure but they must have figured they didn't want him focusing on not having a contract... along the lines of what KW was talking about.
He also doesn’t care much for me, so I expect me posting on these things to piss him off.
by U-God on Feb 27, 2009 10:00 AM CST
by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 22, 2009 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions
true..
I meant to include a statement like that. Floyd may have more confidence than he used to, but as we saw with the shaved head thing, he’s still not the toughest cookie. Perhaps relieving some of the stress surrounding possible arb hearings and his long-term future, will help Floyd more than most pitchers.
Such an effect is entirely unquantifiable, obviously
Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
SouthSideSox on Facebook
I like your argument about staying healthy,
he doesn’t have the most natural throwing motion in the world, and he needs to throw a lot of breaking balls to be successful.
He also doesn’t care much for me, so I expect me posting on these things to piss him off.
by U-God on Feb 27, 2009 10:00 AM CST
by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 22, 2009 10:45 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the Sox are trying to address this
Gavin’s mechanics look still further cut down from his over-the-head windup days to me. Anything to get out of the way of him focusing on keeping a feel for his breaking pitches is, as you suggest, to the point. And this deal is a vote of confidence if anything. The Sox obviously want to invest in making Gavin into a legit starter. Considering the supply and the Sox’ expertise, it looks good to me.
I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.
can be bad too?
hopefully he doesn’t go ‘fuck it, I made it now’
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
This is fallacious reasoning.
He had his best year last year without a long-term contract. Why all of a sudden now is he going to pitch better because he has a stable income? He could just as easily relax in a bad way and do a Barry Zito on us.
Just giving another side. I’d have preferred a shorter contract. Buehrle has always been a horse. Gavin is predicted to not have as good (lucky) a year this year, as you all have shown me.
I do like the idea of locking up young talent for a long while – I’m just more comfy with doing it for a position player rather than a young pitcher who just had a career year. (Exception – Danks.)
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 23, 2009 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions
cant really compare a $126 million deal to a $15 million deal
There was an incident a few years ago. The Bulls were killing the Knicks, scrubs were playing out the clock, and the fans were screaming at them to score 100 points for free Big Macs. They took a ton of shots, Knicks took offense and they tried to fight some Bulls players.
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 19, 2009 5:25 PM EST
and if what puts gavin off his game is just having wealth well into the millions and not having wealth well into the tens of millions, there's a problem.
by larry on Mar 23, 2009 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Shoeless Joe woulda played for free.
(After he accepted a payoff.)
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
good call on the extension...
If Floyd turns into a pumpkin we won’t be that hurt with this contract. If he continues to improve, or merely stays somewhere along the lines of last year, we got a great deal.
Plus, as Cheat and WTGTD have said, easing Floyd’s mind could have a positive, yet unquantifiable effect on him.
I wonder what Q! will go for… if his injury history will hurt him MORE than his MVP-caliber season last year will help him.
"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."
by Shoeless In SC on Mar 22, 2009 10:50 PM CDT reply actions
I think it is a good signing.... Everyone keeps saying Danks is a better pitcher than Floyd...
I think Floyd has much better stuff than Danks does.
On a second note… nice that cheat jumped larry’s story with his own “analysis”. This is why larry wasn’t a contributor long ago! He steals Cheats thunder!
Kenwo4life=ratings
i support your flag
1. Danks is a lot better.
2. Thundersticks are fueled by larry.
Skipping work and doing coke!
by omnipotent grab on Mar 23, 2009 12:17 AM CDT up reply actions
flag III
1. Danks > Buehrle > Floyd
2. theres two ways to run with that:
Larry invented thundersticks and sold them to the Koreans.
or
Larry’s boyfriend is Korean.
team USA roster liabilities: 3. John Grabow, 2. LaTroy Hawkins, 1. Derek Jeter
My two cents:
1. Danks is better (but I like the Floyd contract); and
2. larry was thunderstruck (We met some girls, Some dancers who gave a good time, Broke all the rules, played all the fools….)
Flagged.
There is only one Toonderstrook.
(sniffle)
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 23, 2009 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions
he didn't necessarily say he was better.
he said his stuff was better, which is debatable, but he may have a point.
He also doesn’t care much for me, so I expect me posting on these things to piss him off.
by U-God on Feb 27, 2009 10:00 AM CST
by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 23, 2009 1:09 AM CDT up reply actions
Exactly
I think Floyd has the stuff which could potentially lead him to be an annual 15+ winner. Danks has better control/composure for sure….but Floyd’s stuff is outstanding….hence taking 2 no hitters deep into games last year.
Kenwo4life=ratings
I think Floyd's stuff definitely used to be better
Now, I’m not so sure.
by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 23, 2009 1:44 AM CDT up reply actions
All i know
is if i got a major league at bat I would much prefer facing Danks than Floyd. I by no means am saying Danks sucks. I think he is great too. These 2 guys are both better than Buehrle in my opinion.
Kenwo4life=ratings
by KenWo4LiFe on Mar 23, 2009 7:19 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
KenWo don't forget to take into account that there are many variables that decide who wins a game.
Garland won what 36 games or something ridiculous over 2 seasons, yet he wasn’t very good.
He also doesn’t care much for me, so I expect me posting on these things to piss him off.
by U-God on Feb 27, 2009 10:00 AM CST
by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 23, 2009 7:26 AM CDT up reply actions

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