Carlos Quentin Community Projection Results

by The Cheat on Mar 25, 2009 5:55 PM CDT Comment 110 comments

The Carlos Quentin projection was easily our most consistent effort so far. I only had to throw out one entry -- somebody who thought Q! would slug .340 while hitting 35 HR -- and as you can see by the spread from the standard deviations, there wasn't a whole lot of variation overall.

Carlos Quentin Community Projection

	AB	2B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	HBP
AVG +Std Dev	589	37	39	.293	.396	.579	22
AVG	551	32	34	.284	.382	.549	17
AVG - Std Dev	512	27	28	.276	.369	.519	12

My own projection looks a lot like the low entry. I think Q! is gonna have a rough first half.

Full spreadsheet available here. Thoughts?

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Comments

Is there going to be a next post in this series?

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 25, 2009 6:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

only sss would need more than one post for a Q! community projection

Colon "toes" nothing. That implies a nimbleness akin to a Nureyev. I beleive he "platypussed" the shit out of that mound.
-winningugly

by blackoutsox on Mar 25, 2009 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you misinterpret my question

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 25, 2009 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you worded it improperly

Colon "toes" nothing. That implies a nimbleness akin to a Nureyev. I beleive he "platypussed" the shit out of that mound.
-winningugly

by blackoutsox on Mar 25, 2009 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

no i didn't

this isn’t the first community projection of the off-season, it has been a series. i asked if there would be another post.

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 25, 2009 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

since there was already more than one post for Q!, asking for another post without

naming it generally implies you are referrring to the previous

example, as the car drove around the building, it blew up.

what blew up, the car or the building, no one will know.

Colon "toes" nothing. That implies a nimbleness akin to a Nureyev. I beleive he "platypussed" the shit out of that mound.
-winningugly

by blackoutsox on Mar 25, 2009 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

once again

there were multiple posts for each player in the series so far. go back and look at them.

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 25, 2009 6:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

if there were really multiple posts for every player and not just Q!,

then i concede, but im not gonna check cause im too lazy

Colon "toes" nothing. That implies a nimbleness akin to a Nureyev. I beleive he "platypussed" the shit out of that mound.
-winningugly

by blackoutsox on Mar 25, 2009 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fields Results, Fields Opener, Che Results, Che Opener, Getz Results, Getz Opener

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 25, 2009 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Getz Opener

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 25, 2009 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i believe the proper term is unclear antecedents

Colon "toes" nothing. That implies a nimbleness akin to a Nureyev. I beleive he "platypussed" the shit out of that mound.
-winningugly

by blackoutsox on Mar 25, 2009 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're wearing on me.

when a substantial amount of your posts are “fial” and nitpicking language, you’re doing this SSS posting thing wrong.

by larry on Mar 25, 2009 6:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doh!

/hangs head, slinks away quitely

You are right. But larry is actually a prick too.
- HSA 01/07/09

by rhythm on Mar 25, 2009 9:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

is he?

He also doesn’t care much for me, so I expect me posting on these things to piss him off.
by U-God on Feb 27, 2009 10:00 AM CST

by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 26, 2009 8:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's splendid. And as a language nitpicker, I do understand to what ambiguity you are referencing - it's actually called ambiguous antecedent, based on your example.

However, I’m pretty certain that Cheat (for whom this question was intended) would understand U-God’s question, just as I did and I’m sure others did too.
It’s a bit unnecessary for you to pounce on posters about language inconsistencies (I don’t even think this even falls into the ambiguous antecedent category anyhow) just because you personally feel it’s not written properly.

This is advice….I’d take it before larry is unleashed.

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Mar 25, 2009 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

im sorry

i dont mean to bring any of you down

i can tell there is a lot of work put in this site and i respect that

Colon "toes" nothing. That implies a nimbleness akin to a Nureyev. I beleive he "platypussed" the shit out of that mound.
-winningugly

by blackoutsox on Mar 25, 2009 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No worries.

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Mar 25, 2009 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, if we didn't already know that last statement of yours, you'd be to the sharks by now. So that's a good sign.

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Mar 25, 2009 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Like Judas Priest Unleashed.

(And then you find out they’re fronted by a poof.)

Sweet, I better start upping the suck.
by homesickalien on Mar 24, 2009 4:52 PM EDT

by winningugly on Mar 25, 2009 7:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i bet you were surprised about Liberace too, huh

I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.

by thatshortkid on Mar 25, 2009 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I did not see that coming.

Sweet, I better start upping the suck.
by homesickalien on Mar 24, 2009 4:52 PM EDT

by winningugly on Mar 25, 2009 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i was supposed to be in that poof!

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

struck out again at the bars last weekend, huh

I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.

by thatshortkid on Mar 25, 2009 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

they were going to make me into a bisque to feed the troops

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You've been drinking tonight, yes?

Sweet, I better start upping the suck.
by homesickalien on Mar 24, 2009 4:52 PM EDT

by winningugly on Mar 25, 2009 7:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Arrested Development whooooosh. Your personal favorite!

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Mar 25, 2009 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Spent too much time reading the Bob Loblaw Law Blog

Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
SouthSideSox on Facebook

by The Cheat on Mar 25, 2009 7:58 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

that's a mouthful!

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I highly recommend this.

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Mar 25, 2009 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Killing my soul, BOS...killing my soul.....

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Mar 25, 2009 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

freal.

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

forgive me for not knowing

but what is std dev?

Colon "toes" nothing. That implies a nimbleness akin to a Nureyev. I beleive he "platypussed" the shit out of that mound.
-winningugly

by blackoutsox on Mar 25, 2009 6:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

standard deviation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 25, 2009 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

so you have no problem with unclear antecedents

but standard deviation gives you fits?

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The skills that make one good with sentence structure and good with statistics are very different

Yawn.

by reardenmettle on Mar 25, 2009 7:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and i possess both in spades! what luck!

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 7:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Must have been an English major

"You might be impressed with your analysis, but I am not. Stop wasting my time." - Chris De Luca

by BoKnows on Mar 26, 2009 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ooo thanks

Colon "toes" nothing. That implies a nimbleness akin to a Nureyev. I beleive he "platypussed" the shit out of that mound.
-winningugly

by blackoutsox on Mar 25, 2009 6:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

cheat, is it the projection minus the SD that's been similar to other projection systems for the other players?

by onlysoxfaninboston on Mar 25, 2009 6:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

iirc, there's a -5% rule for adjusting per Cheat.

it’s def not the SD. waaay too much.

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 6:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

but it doesn't seem that ridiculous in this case because most projections systems i thought were taking injury history into account

but i think you’re right, 5%…

by onlysoxfaninboston on Mar 25, 2009 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

it doesn't seem ridiculous in this case

because of the seriously high level of agreement from those who voted.

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

duh, totally...

by onlysoxfaninboston on Mar 25, 2009 6:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

502 ABs, WU, you think he's gonna miss playing time?

by onlysoxfaninboston on Mar 25, 2009 6:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

not as much as that anonymous person at the end thinks

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 25, 2009 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure.

All those HBP will add up, to the extent that one might find a hand, ala BJ Upton.

Sweet, I better start upping the suck.
by homesickalien on Mar 24, 2009 4:52 PM EDT

by winningugly on Mar 25, 2009 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

dr. doom!

by onlysoxfaninboston on Mar 25, 2009 7:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The sheep in the flock have scattered...

no one had enough faith to predict a 1.000 OPS?

He will smite us all.

by BustedFlush on Mar 25, 2009 6:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i bet my projection is 1.000 OPS

if i added up the doubles and hr for a proper slg %.

by e-gus on Mar 26, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

nope

it would be lower

i change my HR estimate to 50!

by e-gus on Mar 26, 2009 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

apparently i topped Cheat by 10 pts in every triple slash category

and UG was pretty much on average. also: JBasic won this last year and is more or less keeping his prediction from last season intact.

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 6:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

there's a ton of community agreement about Q! though.

iiiiiinteresting.

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 6:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks

i didn’t want to point it out myself. this was also the first time i actually sat down and calculated out the slash stats instead of just making something up. obama4cntrfld was really close, but his numbers don’t make sense.

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 25, 2009 6:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

it takes forever to do that shit by hand

i wish cheat would just do slash line, PAs and maybe HR. but i’m of that confounded new school.

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

idk, it was kinda fun

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 25, 2009 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i always screw up arithmetic

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and yet you have spades of knowledge in the field of stats?

Colon "toes" nothing. That implies a nimbleness akin to a Nureyev. I beleive he "platypussed" the shit out of that mound.
-winningugly

by blackoutsox on Mar 25, 2009 7:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

there's a difference in knowing how to calculate something and actually being able to do it

colin knows more about baseball stats than just about everyone on here. he masturbates to numbers. you might want to lay off the attacks (even if you’re just kidding) until you are a little more established around here. you aren’t off to a very stellar start.

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 25, 2009 7:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

*numbers and midgets

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

but of course

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 25, 2009 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Contributing to the discussion = ftl

petulance is far more productive

Yawn.

by reardenmettle on Mar 25, 2009 8:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you tell him, steve-dave!

I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.

by thatshortkid on Mar 25, 2009 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

doesn't your copy of excel add for you?

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 7:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

but also:

i don’t think anything of myself wrt statistics. never even taken a class. sarcasm. i use it.

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and if it's not obvious, this projected line

would make Q! one of the best hitters in the game.

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 6:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

iso'in like a motherfuck?

by onlysoxfaninboston on Mar 25, 2009 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks again for the book

finished it this morning. good stuff.

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 25, 2009 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

my pleasure man

by onlysoxfaninboston on Mar 25, 2009 7:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No larry, no HSA, no TAEG?

WTF?

Sweet, I better start upping the suck.
by homesickalien on Mar 24, 2009 4:52 PM EDT

by winningugly on Mar 25, 2009 7:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I was busy making sandwiches...

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Mar 25, 2009 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No MM, either.

What a DB.

Sweet, I better start upping the suck.
by homesickalien on Mar 24, 2009 4:52 PM EDT

by winningugly on Mar 25, 2009 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He ain't going to show on 5/22 either. Book it.

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Mar 25, 2009 7:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah because without what that guy knows about baseball

we are surely screwed.

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Colon is scheduled to pitch Monday, but Cooper hasn’t decided whether he will pitch against the Los Angeles Angels or in a minor league game. Colon wouldn’t declare whether he was ready to join the starting rotation. The Sox need a fifth starter on April 11, and Colon and Jose Contreras are scheduled to pitch April 4 against Arizona in the final exhibition game.

“We’ll see next outing,” Colon said.

Colon said his elbow felt fine, and his change-up was effective. He admitted feeling a little timid in throwing his slider.
..
Colon’s status will affect the rest of the staff. If he is ready, left-hander Clayton Richard will move to the bullpen and leave only one spot open (assuming D.J. Carrasco makes the squad). Left-hander Randy Williams hasn’t allowed a run in nine of 10 spring outings, and he’s scheduled for work Friday, Saturday and or Sunday.

Jack Egbert and Mike MacDougal also are in the mix.

And it appears that Chris Getz will bat second, as he’s scheduled to hit in that spot for the third consecutive game on Thursday against Arizona’s Brandon Webb.

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2009/03/wonderful-wednesday-for-white-sox-colon.html

by larry on Mar 25, 2009 7:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

che in the top slot?

by onlysoxfaninboston on Mar 25, 2009 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i like getz at second

i think we will see a lot of 2 run homers this year

Colon "toes" nothing. That implies a nimbleness akin to a Nureyev. I beleive he "platypussed" the shit out of that mound.
-winningugly

by blackoutsox on Mar 25, 2009 7:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and he's adept at handling the bat!

by onlysoxfaninboston on Mar 25, 2009 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you and everyone else that realized we have no other options.

He also doesn’t care much for me, so I expect me posting on these things to piss him off.
by U-God on Feb 27, 2009 10:00 AM CST

by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 26, 2009 8:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i also think that Egbert should have the fifth spot in the rotation

He has pitched just as well as Richard,
Richard could fill in a lefty spot in the bull pen,
and Egbert could prevent a rotation consisting of four southpaws assuming Poreda replaces Contreras next year.

Colon "toes" nothing. That implies a nimbleness akin to a Nureyev. I beleive he "platypussed" the shit out of that mound.
-winningugly

by blackoutsox on Mar 25, 2009 7:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

unhealthy Colon < Egbert

He also doesn’t care much for me, so I expect me posting on these things to piss him off.
by U-God on Feb 27, 2009 10:00 AM CST

by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 26, 2009 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Former Sox (Waste of a) First-Round Pick Released

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/03/royce-ring-placed-on-waivers.html

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 25, 2009 7:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Damn I didnt think I was going to have the highest HBP.

It's like he's a cyborg sent from the future to draw 22 walks a season or something.

by omnipotent grab on Mar 25, 2009 8:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

coxsie

This philosophical tidbit from 3B Coach Jeff Cox today:

“If at first you don’t succeed, don’t try skydiving.”

http://whitesoxpride.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/03/dog_days_of_spring.html

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Mar 25, 2009 8:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I would like to see Jerry Owens

go sky diving
at his rate of success, who knows what might happen?

Colon "toes" nothing. That implies a nimbleness akin to a Nureyev. I beleive he "platypussed" the shit out of that mound.
-winningugly

by blackoutsox on Mar 25, 2009 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

Hey, he was a decent football player…should’ve stuck to that

by Crede's Crew on Mar 25, 2009 9:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Q! re: Fantasy drafts

Are any of you guys picking him?

I haven’t so far in 2 leagues and I have my final draft Sunday. It’s with a lot of BoSox Masshole fans, so I bet they are expecting me to take him. Not to speak against his greatness, but I don’t know about using a second rd pick on him

by Crede's Crew on Mar 25, 2009 9:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

tough call.

he was going to be the american league MVP pretty much as a rookie.

He also doesn’t care much for me, so I expect me posting on these things to piss him off.
by U-God on Feb 27, 2009 10:00 AM CST

by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 26, 2009 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lack of track record and the injury are scaring me

There are a lot more proven guys in the same range.
Guess I’m just risk averse in the early rounds

by Crede's Crew on Mar 26, 2009 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I paid $25 for him

in an auction league.

I got Alexei for $19, too.

by e-gus on Mar 26, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

confirmation straight from our savior's mouth.

Beckham started hot but cooled off to finish with a .270 batting average. He said he would start the 2009 season as the shortstop at Double-A Birmingham.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/chi-26-white-sox-bits-chicago-mar26,0,678565.story

by larry on Mar 25, 2009 10:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

so Q! is more of a prophet in this theology?

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i thought we went over this already. quentin-danks-beckham are the trinity.

by larry on Mar 25, 2009 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i missed that sermon

i had to fix mrs. cowley’s plumbing that day.

I can lead you to 4 Wisdom, but I can't free your brain from the evil of Punto.

by colintj on Mar 25, 2009 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

there is only 1 prophet

His name is Roman.

He also doesn’t care much for me, so I expect me posting on these things to piss him off.
by U-God on Feb 27, 2009 10:00 AM CST

by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 26, 2009 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Got some autographs today.

Autographs from The Bridge, Harold, and Floyd. Jerry Owens wrote his name on something of mine.

Also, I went to go check out the fields beyond Camelback, and I found the Indians and Dodgers playing 2 games of minor league ball. Saw a couple people I thought were major leaguers (at some point), and exchanged plesentries with Tommy LaSorda as he drove past in his golfcart.

my president is white.

by JoeCoolMan24 on Mar 25, 2009 10:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs