Building a Better Projection: Gavin Floyd
We've taken a bit of a break from our community projection series as I hired on some new editors to a mid-4 figure sum using some Verizon Math.
Seriously though, they're cranking out some quality content, which leaves more of my non-scat porn viewing time to tackle some meatier posts myself. I should have out-sourced the front page content to India years ago.
Part of the reason I started the community projections a few years ago, aside from trying to fill the dead period in February, was to harness the community's knowledge of things that projection systems don't know. We nailed Joe Crede's projection a few years ago because we believed he was a slightly different hitter after he hit the video booth when he broke his finger. And even though Gavin Floyd and John Danks beat our projections last year, we came far closer to their actual numbers than any of the computer-based systems.
There are times when human input can be invaluable in a projection. That's not to say I think that a large-scale wisdom of crowds style projection system, sort of like Tango does with his fielding project, would be more accurate than say PECOTA. Computers will continue to crank out the most reliable projections around. But on an individual, case-by-case basis there are gains to be made by applying a human element to a computer model. I believe Gavin Floyd is one such case.
Understanding Projection Systems
Before we can dive into building our own educated guess of a projection, before we can answer the age old question Why does PECOTA hate White Sox pitching?, we need to understand the basics nuts and bolts of a simple projection system.
In their most basic form, Marcels for instance, projections are simply a weighted average of a player's past performance. They can get substantially more advanced than that, adding aging curves, influence from players with similar profiles, and other sabermetric principles (BABIP, FIP, etc.).
From a pitching standpoint, projection systems don't go straight from "A" (last year's performance) to "Z" (next year's projected ERA). There are stops in between, namely projecting the pitcher-controlled stats (K, BB, HR, HBP).
PECOTA doesn't hate the White Sox, or Gavin Floyd in particular. What projection systems really love in pitchers are guys who maintain good groundball rates (suppressing homeruns), high strikeout rates, and low walk rates. Aside from Jack Egbert, the White Sox simply don't have anyone who fits that bill, although John Danks is trying to make the jump.
Applying Our Knowledge to Floyd
Now that we (vaguely) know how projection systems arrive at their final destination, let's use our knowledge of Floyd, the post-Philly Floyd, to make a more educated projection of our own.
First, let's take a look at Floyd's 2008. As we all know, his first 9 starts yielded good results on the scoreboard, but his method (27BB/25K) wasn't one that was sustainable. Over his final 24 starts, however, his method (1 HR/G, K/BB ratio of about 3) was one that figured to produce major league success. It's a bit ironic that when Floyd started pitching like a major league pitcher he was less effective at preventing runs than over his first 9 starts. In fact, the 4.20 ERA over those 24 starts doesn't even accurately capture his run prevention, as he allowed a whopping 16 unearned runs over those starts to raise his RA to a not-so-pretty 5.17.
Some might look at those above stats and wonder what type of pitcher they have. I know if I hadn't watched the season myself, I wouldn't know what to make of those two radically different styles. The obvious way to answer such a question is to go back and look at his past performance.
In his stay at AAA in '07 Floyd posted a K/BB ratio of a little below 3 and a K/9 of 8.1. Those are numbers that figured to translate to moderate major league success. And we finally started to see some of that success over his final six major league starts (labeled September call-up), posting peripherals remarkably similar to those over his final 24 starts in '08.
If you look at the peripherals from all these columns there should be one set of numbers that sticks out. One of these things is not like the others. For the purposes of our projection, I'm all but eliminating Floyds first 8 starts form my mind. They happened, but they don't exactly carry the type of repeatable performance that will help us create an accurate projection.
Admittedly, I've left out Floyd's lackluster first 30+ major league innings with the Sox. I haven't forgotten them completely. But I was looking for his true talent, his revised true talent since he started looking reporters in the eyes and grew big hairy balls, and those early '07 major league stats represent too much of Philly Floyd for my liking.
Plugging the Numbers
So what is Floyd's true talent as it pertains to his rate stats (K/9, e.g.)? What can we expect from a Floyd who's a year wiser, who's more likely to pitch like his final 24 starts over an entire season?
I've got Floyd for a K/9 of about 7 (probably a hair higher than 7), a BB/9 under 3 and HR/9 of about 1.3. If I take those peripherals and plug them into a spreadsheet giving Gavin about 30 starts to get some counting stats, I come up with a FIP ERA of about 4.5.
FIP Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger.
Since our initial projection is admittedly optimistic, all but ignoring Floyd's first 9 starts of '08, let's create a more realistic projection as well. If we move his K/9 down to 6 and his BB/9 and HR/9 up to 3 and 1.4, respectively, his FIP ERA raises to 4.9. That's exactly his weighted mean PECOTA ERA, but still below the 5.11 ERA that ZiPS gives him.
Conclusion
While more data is almost always better than less data, Floyd's topsy-turvy first 60 innings in '08, his lackluster first 30 major league innings in '07, and to a lesser extent his time in Philly all drag Floyd's projected ERAs skyward. But is Floyd ever likely to repeat a stretch of baseball like his first 60 innings of '08? Should his time in Philly really have any substantial effect on his future projections?
Going through the basic step-by-step process has allowed us to see how these systems arrive at their ultimate destination, and perhaps how they can be thrown off course by some wonky data. It's easy for us to sit back and say PECOTA hates White Sox pitching, but until we dive headfirst into our own projection, until we apply our own weight to the stats as well as exterior factors, we're just offering up a knee jerk reaction.
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114 comments
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Comments
So i'm confused.... are we doing a community projection....?
Cause i can’t find the link.
or did we already do one and i missed it?
Great post though. Especially the part about his big hairy balls. He looks like a different guy than when we got him from philly and I think he will beat most of his projections this year. He has the look of a guy that is coming into his own. He has confidence in himself, and isn’t looking over his shoulder. He shown that he is a major league pitcher and believes in himself…
It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by ElDiablo on Mar 3, 2009 4:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'll probably start up the community projections again
leave ‘em in the FanPost section, since the front page is loaded. No, we haven’t done Floyd yet.
The post was influenced by a few of the wild projections offered up in the other CPs that we’ve done and a comment in the ZiPS fanshot about ZiPS hating Floyd.
Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
The Cheat on Facebook
by The Cheat on Mar 3, 2009 4:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My bad...
I thought that I missed out. You make very valid points on why the projections are where they are at for Gavin. I’m very excited to see if Floyd and Danks can take another step forward, level off, or regress.
Having 4 borderline breakout years gives you a lot to hope for / be skeptical of.
It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by ElDiablo on Mar 3, 2009 4:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
All this fancy-pants algebra....I don't see an equation for BHB!
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 3, 2009 4:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Sidenote...
There is a lot of ass kissing on here lately but, this place has been brimming with information lately. I feel so on top of my game as a fan.
It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by ElDiablo on Mar 3, 2009 5:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
ESPN on White Sox
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2009/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=3948072
There was an incident a few years ago. The Bulls were killing the Knicks, scrubs were playing out the clock, and the fans were screaming at them to score 100 points for free Big Macs. They took a ton of shots, Knicks took offense and they tried to fight some Bulls players.
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 19, 2009 5:25 PM EST
by Jbasic89 on Mar 3, 2009 5:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Crasnick
The White Sox have thrown open their second-base competition to Chris Getz, Brent Lillibridge and Jayson Nix, while prospects Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, Lance Broadway and Jeff Marquez might all pitch in the big leagues in 2009.
If Lance Broadway is pitching for our club for more than 15 innings we are in TROUBLE
It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by ElDiablo on Mar 3, 2009 5:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
he could be the long man without hurting the team.
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
by colintj on Mar 3, 2009 5:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
CHONE
has him right at a 6 era…. not what i had in mind for our long man.
If he’s there that means that line of guys that failed…. trouble
It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by ElDiablo on Mar 3, 2009 6:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Correction
If he’s there it means that a long line of guys have failed
It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by ElDiablo on Mar 3, 2009 7:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
the long man typically pitches in very low leverage
as they usually come in handy most in mop up situations. not to stroke larry’s ego, but masset theory applies: there’s basically no leverage to be gained at the back of the bullpen because every team has a ton of those guys. limited opportunity means that the last couple guys on the roster are going to be basically interchangeable across the 14 AL teams (less so with NL b/c of the absence of DH). this is replacement level.
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
by colintj on Mar 3, 2009 8:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
my ego is so big i can no longer even feel it when people stroke it.
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by larry on Mar 3, 2009 8:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
give it the ole
gravitational pull
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
by colintj on Mar 3, 2009 8:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My ego is so big it has an elbow.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on Mar 3, 2009 9:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Point taken....
I get what your saying….
I guess i just haven’t read the word prospect and Broadway in such a long time that it blurred my vision.
It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by ElDiablo on Mar 3, 2009 8:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Outstanding
outside of the inability to spell ‘projection’
"KenWO
no point in arguing with people who are blinded from reality..."
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 29, 2008 6:49 PM
by Illini0509 on Mar 3, 2009 5:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
running it back through spellcheck
it’s tough with three tables in the middle of it
Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
The Cheat on Facebook
by The Cheat on Mar 3, 2009 5:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It was in the part that I wrote last night
I guess I didn’t check the part above the jump
Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
The Cheat on Facebook
by The Cheat on Mar 3, 2009 5:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Normally you would get a pass on the misspelled words but,
Being that SBnation has multiple mergers, this will be seen all over the internet.
But you get a pass in my book. Any article with 3 graphs and that much thought/time put into it is good enough.
It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by ElDiablo on Mar 3, 2009 5:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I just noticed your avatar, ED.
Kin to MM?
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 3, 2009 5:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Nope,
My wife gives me a hard time about not doing any laundry. She found that somewhere on the internet and sent it to me.
It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by ElDiablo on Mar 3, 2009 5:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
understood
just want to ensure the ‘quality’ around here stays consistent
"KenWO
no point in arguing with people who are blinded from reality..."
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 29, 2008 6:49 PM
by Illini0509 on Mar 3, 2009 5:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Never thought I'd see the day when Cheat
would be at the low end of the totem pole re: quality control. Fer Chrissakes.
Money corrupts and makes a man lazy.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 3, 2009 5:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
that's "quantity" to y'all.
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
by colintj on Mar 3, 2009 5:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Floyd will win the award
my Prime Minister is a boss eyed wanker
by hoodlight on Mar 3, 2009 6:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
quote
Oncce the pitcher loads the ball in the cocked position,the arm rotates forward at 7,000 degrees per second.
It is the single most fastest measured human motion of any activity.While in the loaded position,the shoulder and arm bear the equivalent of about 40 lbs of force pushing down.Biomecahanical experts at ASMI in Birmingham,Alabama were curious about how much more force an arm could take.They took cadavers into the lab and pulled and pushed upon the shoulder joint to find its breaking point.The ligaments blew apart just above 40 lbs – a pitcher is therefore at just about the maximum.
Small wonder they break down – their arms and shoulders are at the absolute limit.Pitching,unlike most sports activities,has reached the limit of what is humanly possible.
So while sprinters run faster,golfers hit the ball farther,swimmers swim faster because of technological advancements the pitcher has reached his peak.You will not see a ball delivered at 110mph.Any faster than they are now and the shoulder will blow up.
And that is why the role of research in baseball is not to get a pitcher to throw faster,but to lower the risk of injury.
my Prime Minister is a boss eyed wanker
by hoodlight on Mar 3, 2009 6:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Assuming we don't see some Michael Phelps-esque freak of nature down the road
White Sox: Trying to roll a hard six.
by vince_ on Mar 3, 2009 9:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
quote
my Prime Minister is a boss eyed wanker
by hoodlight on Mar 3, 2009 6:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm trying to keep my head above water on here
I can’t keep up
my Prime Minister is a boss eyed wanker
by hoodlight on Mar 3, 2009 6:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
go for some spotted dick
pudding
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on Mar 3, 2009 6:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
great post
but i think you still need to clarify the reasons for separating the 1st 9 games from the last 24. i don’t get it, is this based on the distribution of a specific summary statistic, or some other event that may influenced subsequent starts after may 23rd? why not split after the june 8th start? i looked at the gamelog on baseball reference, and there’s nothing that grabbed me to separate the 1st nine starts from the final 24.
if the k/bb on both sides of the cutoff start – right now its 27/25 vs 3 – changes little if you shift it to the 8th or 10th or 11th start, then it probably doesn’t matter.
by onlysoxfaninboston on Mar 3, 2009 7:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'll admit to some arbitrary endpoints
The main influence for the first 9 games post is just that his K/BB dipped into upside-down territory at that point, and then reverted to nearly 3:1 afterwards. It’s like he was two different pitchers.
And you can’t project the first one for crap. Or I suppose you would project the first one as crappy, but that just happened to be when he was most effective, thanks to some plus defense (Crede) and a .198 BABIP
Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
The Cheat on Facebook
by The Cheat on Mar 3, 2009 7:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
of course it's arbitrary to an extent
but thanks for provided further clarification, that’s all i needed…
by onlysoxfaninboston on Mar 3, 2009 7:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I assumed, at the time, the BABIP was brought down because of all the infield flies.


The left is Floyd, the right is Danks. Notice that while Danks had most righties pulling off on the ball, his GB% was only 3% higher than Floyd’s. Floyd’s “splits”, if you will, were negligible, less than 1% difference between left and right side overall. Danks’s splits were a little startling to me, as that’s a big difference. My concern is that right-handed batters will adjust to Danks’s style over time and go more towards the middle or even to right field with the pitches. This may or may not be significant, but, if anything, it tells me that Danks may be the one due for a regression, if anyone. By the way, Danks’s BABIP was 30 points higher.
Now, what I was alluding to is that Floyd allowed soft contact, as he induced 9.2% infield flies. I wasn’t sure just how much higher than average this was, so I found someone with similar GB rates.


Left is Haren. His BABIP? .310. He allowed few more grounders than Floyd while inducing less infield flies. On the right is another Phillies top prospect, except this one took a different path than Floyd to get where he is now. He’s glorified, noted as one of the best young pitchers in the game, and rightly so. His K rate is higher than Floyd’s and his BB rate lower. You should have guessed by now that it’s Cole Hamels. His GB rate is within 1% of Floyd’s, his infield fly rate is a mere .3% higher and his BABIP is .002 higher. So I think the question is not whether Floyd can stay lucky or if the defense will be as good as it was, but whether Floyd can keep inducing soft contact, because that’s the main catalyst in his low BABIP.
Take these for what they’re worth, but maybe we can agree that Floyd wasn’t as lucky as everyone else wants you to believe. I remember a hitter describing him as “effectively wild”, is that what brought him to success? We watched it, right?
by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 3, 2009 7:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So when I post cool pictures, no one gives a fuck.
Maybe I should have drawn some rainbow colored swirlies and have someone say “Interesting stuff.” out of pity.
by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 3, 2009 9:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought they were cool...
It’s interesting that there’s a sort sabremetric “conventional wisdom” that Floyd was a mirage that will suck in 2009. I’m with the SSS assessment that he’ll be worse than 2008 ERA-wise but still valuable.
I’m terrible at visually analyzing pitching, but I’d agree with the effectively wild characterization. It looked to me like Floyd had a lot more movement on pitches than I usually see.
by hitlesswonder on Mar 3, 2009 9:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think you can make any significant predictions of future performance based on the ground ball spray charts
The results seem like a function of the pitcher’s handedness or repertoire. Both righties and lefties will be hitting Danks cutter to the left side. Buehrle has a similar tendency to induce grounders to the left as does Hamels as you showed
by 3E8 on Mar 3, 2009 10:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry - I guess my representative post wasn't enough an hour and a half earlier..
DANIEL BERLYN IS EFFING AWESOME! A GOD WITH GRAPHICS!!!! I WILL NAME MY FIRST-BORN SON IN ANOTHER LIFE “DANIEL BERLYN”!!! CHEAT, EFFING SIGN HIM TO A CONTRACT NOW!!!
Happy now, Mr. Glory Hound? Fer Chrissakes. Give this guy a trophy, already.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 4, 2009 7:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I was going for, yes.
by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 4, 2009 7:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So pull your pants up and have a cig.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 4, 2009 7:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
21 minutes. So far.
Are you 75 years old or something? Quit thinking about baseball.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 4, 2009 7:54 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
with this crowd, wu
thinking about baseball probably speeds things up
I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.
by thatshortkid on Mar 4, 2009 11:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
can't you put some colour on em?
they look a bit dull, need jazzing up a bit
my Prime Minister is a boss eyed wanker
by hoodlight on Mar 4, 2009 7:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We all claim
to love the statistics, charts, etc. but what really gets this group going is a picture of a good sandwich.
by palehose67 on Mar 4, 2009 8:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's safe to put Floyd's ERA between his "fake" run of success and his "actual" stats beyond the first 9 starts
In other words, I’m pegging him at above four but below 4.50. I think Floyd is still in a growing stage and I expect his “peak” performance come in 2010. There’s no reason to think his peripherals will be any worse than last year. I think we’re eliminating any chance for a(nother) breakthrough with him and given his talent I don’t think that possibility to be ignored. I’d go as far to say that the Floyd we haven’t seen yet is more likely to appear than the pre-September 07 Floyd.
by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 3, 2009 7:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Someone's bucking for a 4-figure assistant editor gig.
Nice work, Daniel-san.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 3, 2009 7:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
cuban comfort
“We understand culturalization is a part of any success, whatever the business,” said White Sox general manager Ken Williams, on the fit of the three Cubans with the White Sox. “If people are made to feel on the outside, then it affects their performance. So we work hard at trying to provide a stable environment for these guys. We don’t take it for granted. I follow up to make sure we are on the right track with that as well.”
…
Barring a major surprise or injury, Viciedo most likely will begin the 2009 campaign in the Minors. That stint at Charlotte or Double-A Birmingham certainly doesn’t mean Viciedo won’t contribute to the White Sox this year.
At some point, the “Cuban Tank” will join the “Cuban Missile” and “El Jefe,” or “Grandpa,” as Ramirez called Contreras with a broad smile on this particular day, as part of the White Sox Cuban Connection.
read the whole article.
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by larry on Mar 3, 2009 7:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
WTF is "culturalization"?
So this is one of the “non-quantifiable” intangible Sox strengths – getting folks settled in and comfortable. Ah, “chemistry”, now that OrCa has left the building you can show your fabulous face again in the clubhouse.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 3, 2009 7:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
fangraphs says culturalization is worth 0.3 WAR. or about $600K.
but some people think their methodology is flawed.
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by larry on Mar 3, 2009 8:04 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
What does Tim D say?
And was Cheat already going to post it?
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 3, 2009 8:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
no. cheat wouldn't post something like that. too earthy.
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by larry on Mar 3, 2009 8:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
da Cheat!
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 3, 2009 8:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Also...
I want one!!!!!
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 3, 2009 8:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i understand cheat likes lotsa dick-sucking.
and you’re definitely not averse to scat. dad would probably approve. sounds like a winning combination to me.
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by larry on Mar 3, 2009 9:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
WU!
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 3, 2009 9:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
this is non-culturalization.
Piniella was fuming over a remark Phillips made recently on Chet Coppock’s WMVP-AM 1000 radio show. Asked about Kosuke Fukudome’s rookie season, Phillips criticized Piniella’s handling of the Japanese outfielder.
“My view is Lou doesn’t have a great deal of patience for assimilation into culture, assimilation into the team,” Phillips said. “He is just not the most patient guy around, and he tends to verbalize his frustrations in an angry way. I think that may have affected Fukudome a little bit.”
…
“I don’t have much respect for Steve Phillips,” Piniella said after hearing the comment Monday. “Let him be around a little more and see what transpires before he makes assumptions. I’ve lost total respect for this guy. If he had something to say, let him say it to me.”
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/chi-03-cubs-bits-chicagomar03,0,1666194.story
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by larry on Mar 3, 2009 9:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Lou doesn't have fucking time to learn about other pansy ass cultures
He’s got 1st round playoff series to mismanage! Get that fucking Hispanola Zambrano outta there, 50 innings for Dempster!
Confusion breeds success. If they don't know each other, opponents can't have strategy. GENIUS.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 3, 2009 10:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
"Get off my lawn!"
Wilder Bilked Money from Sox to Fund Struggling Gay Bar
by ChicagoPete on Mar 4, 2009 5:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Phillips may have been referring to Piniella's propensity
to wear the “Horry Cow” T-shirt and Rising Sun bandanna around the clubhouse and play an infinite loop of “Tora! Tora! Tora!” during tape reviews.
Oh, and when Fukodome would swing and miss Lou shouted “BANZAIIIIIIIIIII!!” from the dugout.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 4, 2009 7:33 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
banzaiiii!
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 4, 2009 8:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Fielding Bible Excerpt
John Dewan does it based on RE24 (run expectancy by the 24 base/out states). In that sense, it is identical to what Fangraphs does on the hitting side with RE24. Otherwise, he follows the same process he did the first time, and is a subset of what MGL does with UZR. (Unless Dewan also handled all the parameters that MGL does.) It may also be somewhat of a subset to what Pinto does.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/fielding_bible_excerpt/
I see Q!‘s +/- runs saved at -4 and OF Arm runs saved at 4, and Che’s +/- runs saved at -6 and GDP runs saved at 0
http://sabernomics.com/sabernomics/FieldingBibleVII_Excerpt.pdf
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on Mar 3, 2009 7:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Manny agrees
by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 3, 2009 8:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Obscure independent leaguer traded for bats, ODs on heroin and meth
by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 3, 2009 8:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Wiz, is that you?
But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.
by U-God on Mar 3, 2009 8:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
here
http://deadspin.com/5163870/the-sad-demise-of-john-odom-the-player-who-was-traded-for-bats
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on Mar 3, 2009 9:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I feel like nobody's around now because SSS exhausted everyone out today. Me, at least. Fangraphs and 13 new threads and great discussion and visiting commenters..lotsa dick-sucking... The SSS community will sleep peacefully tonight.
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 3, 2009 8:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
"lotsa dick-sucking", huh. you, at least, indeed.
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by larry on Mar 3, 2009 8:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
gotta pay the bills, lar-bear.
you seem to know what that’s all about, editor.
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 3, 2009 9:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
no, i don't know how to pay bills. that's a wife job.
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by larry on Mar 3, 2009 9:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
and yours....that's a lucky lady to scoop you up! does she enjoy scrubbing dead hooker blood out of your undergarments?
(+my signature)
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 3, 2009 9:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
that's marketmaker's job to tell hsa that paying the bills is a wife's job
unless MM is paying you to keep hsa in line when he’s not around
by onlysoxfaninboston on Mar 3, 2009 9:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
that's in his editor contract. little do we all know, mm runs the whole joint...cheat's boss....
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 3, 2009 9:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How I picture MM:

how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
by colintj on Mar 3, 2009 9:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He's a shark.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on Mar 3, 2009 9:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How I picture larry

Confusion breeds success. If they don't know each other, opponents can't have strategy. GENIUS.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 3, 2009 10:54 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
i have blue eyes.
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by larry on Mar 3, 2009 10:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Like the sea after a storm.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 4, 2009 7:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I saw the real larry at blognight

Larry and furby heading across the mezzanine to their seats.
Only lar had glasses, furby had a fro instead of a stache, and their derbys had Sox logos on them.
Gordon Beckham 1.405 OPS so far this spring
by e-gus on Mar 4, 2009 10:52 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Hysterical,
and rec’d due to facthood.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 4, 2009 10:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Rec'd.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 4, 2009 7:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I've said something similar....
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 4, 2009 8:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, that whole thread is worth a re-read....I hadn't realized it before, but that was the Monday after the Cubs series, where SSH got banned for a day and George Carlin died that Sunday, to make my life wholly shitty all at once....
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 4, 2009 9:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, who could forget this classic?
term: pussy, user: larry, count: 11
term: pussy, user: all, count: 83
Confusion breeds success. If they don't know each other, opponents can't have strategy. GENIUS.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 4, 2009 10:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, OM, are you a "friend" of SSS?
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 4, 2009 10:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Try to find him....just try....I'm pretty sure even you can figure this one out, OPOS.
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 4, 2009 10:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Um, in what capacity?
Confusion breeds success. If they don't know each other, opponents can't have strategy. GENIUS.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 4, 2009 10:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
FB.
I believe I have you picked out…
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 4, 2009 11:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't been on the page in a while
But, I just looked through everyone’s faces. I think it was a pretty quick scan looking for me.
Confusion breeds success. If they don't know each other, opponents can't have strategy. GENIUS.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 4, 2009 11:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He's the guy terrorizing my profile.
I think I’m his only white friend.
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 4, 2009 11:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah yes...inspired by SSH's reaction to finding out I was a girl for the first time.
Gosh, that guy was a sweetheart.
Once he dropped the “pussy” thing, he picked up the classic defense of posting “Shut the fuck up, bitch” pictures when he couldn’t come up with a retort for me.
The good ol’ days.
...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.
by homesickalien on Mar 4, 2009 11:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
get back in the kitchen
my Prime Minister is a boss eyed wanker
by hoodlight on Mar 4, 2009 12:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We know certain "sugar walls" of yours were tingling earlier yesterday,
so I bet you were wiped out.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 4, 2009 7:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i touched on this earlier
Saying there was too much good discussion and topics.
The new crew of editors has been blowing their proverbial all over the front page.
It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by ElDiablo on Mar 3, 2009 10:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
um yeah that was supposeed to read
Proverbial loads…. all over the front page….
it really loses its humor when you have to type a correction into it.
It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by ElDiablo on Mar 3, 2009 10:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
it was alright
I figured it was done on purpose, because we all know load comes after proverbial.
by Grinder in Training on Mar 3, 2009 10:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
guess ED blew his too early
But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.
by U-God on Mar 3, 2009 10:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good thing i can go multiple times to make up for it.
Oh who am I kidding, I usually just fall asleep after i’ve blown.
It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by ElDiablo on Mar 3, 2009 10:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
see, now that's pretty good. a little double entendre play. nicely done, u-god.
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on Mar 4, 2009 12:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh noes
Bill Plashke is now following my on Twitter
/expects to be mentioned on that terrible show tomorrow
Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
The Cheat on Facebook
by The Cheat on Mar 3, 2009 11:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Let's not begin sucking...
Aww, eff it.
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 4, 2009 7:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
the sig that ruined the world.
how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?
by colintj on Mar 4, 2009 11:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Let me add to the backslapping
The new & improved SSS, very nice Cheat. Tastes great, less venom.
Wilder Bilked Money from Sox to Fund Struggling Gay Bar
by ChicagoPete on Mar 4, 2009 5:40 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
You are posting less?
the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 4, 2009 7:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely less than you.
Wilder Bilked Money from Sox to Fund Struggling Gay Bar
by ChicagoPete on Mar 4, 2009 11:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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