AL Central CF WARs

by colintj on Mar 5, 2009 1:16 PM CST Comment 41 comments

I didn't realize I needed a place holder.

Eesh.

No kidding. Though there is plenty of reason to quibble with the defensive numbers. I don't see anything in the bUZR numbers to suggest that there's a significant gap between BA's defense and the rest of the CF. This comparison comes down to the bat, where Sizemore and Granderson would outhit The Honey Lover by 3-5 wins. If you've been reading the series, you've likely gathered that most players themselves all told aren't worth that much. It's kind of not fair. Sizemore is only 27 and is probably entering a peak where he'll have a shot to win the MVP each season. Granderson is a step down, but not by much. This is a serious competitive disadvantage in the division.

What's worse is that the Sox have no legitimate replacement anywhere in their system. Jordan Danks is as good as it gets and while I appreciate his 2-4 performance yesterday, he still hasn't played an inning above Kannapolis in the minors. There's certainly no guarantee that he can hit in the majors, which is the whole issue. There's really no one else worth mentioning. Fine: John Shelby exists. Actually, I sort of want to talk about how nicely Ryan Sweeney's skill set meshes with Mr. Anderson's, but I won't. Sunk costs. Get over it, man. Get over it.

So how is this going to be resolved? Well, the idea should just be to reduce the problem; finding another Sizemore is not going to happen. And the gap is going to be there at least until Danks is ready. That's 2011 if he's ready. I think a midseason trade is most likely, though we're also going to see some toolsy sorts taken with those 3 relatively high picks. There's probably a decent chance that there are some asset sell-offs coming, so we'll see what opens up.

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flagged.

no dewayne wise.

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by larry on Mar 5, 2009 1:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

and no italicized quote to lead it off

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 5, 2009 1:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

not a position

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by The Cheat on Mar 5, 2009 1:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

well-played

But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him.

by U-God on Mar 5, 2009 1:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

seconded

i suck - the sox dont - SSH2005

by BoeJouma on Mar 5, 2009 1:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

unless you're effing with my charts

it ain’t true.

how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?

by colintj on Mar 5, 2009 2:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

okay. but i don't think i'm the only one who thinks it's wise and not jerry who will be on the team.

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by larry on Mar 5, 2009 2:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i'm with you. Wise is guaranteed money and Owens is not.

seriously, he’s in the g-doc.

how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?

by colintj on Mar 5, 2009 4:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

now.

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by larry on Mar 5, 2009 4:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

he's always been in there as far as i'm aware, dude.

it might not have been publishing properly for a bit.

how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?

by colintj on Mar 5, 2009 5:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks. i know.

southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.

by larry on Mar 5, 2009 5:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that a trade will happen

Especially if the Sox aren’t in contention. Most likely Dye IMO

"...and when it comes to baseball, we have two favorite clubs: the Go-Go White Sox...and whoever plays the Cubs!!!"

by 815Sox on Mar 5, 2009 1:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

poreda, egbert, and allen to the A's for sweeney

then we can flip sweeney and dexter carter to the yanks in 2010 george kontos, andy phillips and johnny damon

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Mar 5, 2009 1:51 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

the pitcher for the chinese right now

looks like a left handed chinese randy johnson

i suck - the sox dont - SSH2005

by BoeJouma on Mar 5, 2009 2:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

i suck - the sox dont - SSH2005

by BoeJouma on Mar 5, 2009 2:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Kinda scary looking.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Mar 5, 2009 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

they just called him the little unit!!

i suck - the sox dont - SSH2005

by BoeJouma on Mar 5, 2009 2:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That is an ugly guy.

Does he have a rack on him/her?

the post wasn't for you. fuck off.
by larry on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST

by winningugly on Mar 5, 2009 2:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

WTF.

Just noticed that.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Mar 5, 2009 9:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

kinda?

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Mar 5, 2009 6:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

AL Central CF's

What happened to Brian’s defense last year? I don’t recall seeing him goof too much or misplay many balls. I just looked at BP and he was a minus 4 last year. Have rumors of Brian Anderson’s defense been greatly exagerrated?

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Mar 5, 2009 2:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

one season's fielding results = grain of salt.

especially when you don’t even get close to 100 games played

how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?

by colintj on Mar 5, 2009 2:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hm.

Okay. You should mention that up above regarding him, and probably Wise, Owens as well.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Mar 5, 2009 3:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i mention that all the time.

how much to the have to pay the Players -- that's what she said -- of the league like BA?

by colintj on Mar 5, 2009 4:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

they must not have seen my avatar

or the final out of game 163 last year

i suck - the sox dont - SSH2005

by BoeJouma on Mar 5, 2009 2:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I was wondering that too

the fielding bible excerpt I saw had him at 2 runs saved in 2006 and 4 runs saved over the last 3 years

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Mar 5, 2009 2:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

wouldn't that mean his defense is better than in 2006 considering he's probably played roughly half the innings in the last two seasons that he did in 2006?

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by larry on Mar 5, 2009 2:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

oh yes

but only 2 runs in 2006? doesn’t that seem a little low?

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Mar 5, 2009 2:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

see colin's post at 2:35

i’d take the three year number over the one year number.

southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.

by larry on Mar 5, 2009 3:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

ok

don’t 4 runs saved over the last 3 years seem a little low?

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Mar 5, 2009 3:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

dunno. seems okay to me. adjust as you please.

southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.

by larry on Mar 5, 2009 3:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I see

nice argument there

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Mar 5, 2009 3:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

well, what do you want me to say?

that’s in line with fangraphs. others are different, i’m sure. you think BA is awesome so i wouldn’t expect you to put much credence in something that doesn’t validate what your preconceived notion is. if you like other stats that place him much higher, go with them. doesn’t seem worth arguing over.

southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.

by larry on Mar 5, 2009 3:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

no, I didn't want anything different

the fangraphs mention is fine, really

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Mar 5, 2009 3:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's possible BA's defense seems better than it is because we see all the other Sox positions players

Grading on a team-wide curve against the other Sox, he’s Tris Speaker.

by hitlesswonder on Mar 5, 2009 4:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

.... True.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Mar 5, 2009 9:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

manny

The Dodgers started the offseason by offering Manny 2 years and 45 million. After a few months, and the Dodgers upping the offer to 2 years and 45 million, Manny returned with a counteroffer: 2 years and 45 million. Much haggling was needed to find a midpoint acceptable to both parties, but in the end, they were able to settle on 2 years, and 45 million dollars.

hahaha!

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Mar 5, 2009 6:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Written funny...

But I think the negotiating wasn’t over the years and the total money, but the other stuff in the contract like trade clauses, option year, and deferred money.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Mar 5, 2009 9:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah. deferred money. the dodgers arguing over deferred money.

southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.

by larry on Mar 5, 2009 10:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Team Offense, Chicago White Sox

The series on team offense continues with the Chicago White Sox. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:

    * Best lineup: 5.30 runs per game
    * Probable lineup: 5.17 runs per game
    * Worst lineup: 4.96 runs per game
    * Regressed lineup: 4.76 runs per game

The White Sox scored 4.98 runs per game in 2008.

Most managers devise a lineup that may not be mathematically optimal, but is close and makes sense in the traditions of baseball. The lineup analysis tool tends to put high OBA power hitters at the top of the order with a leadoff type hitter batting ninth. Here, however, Guillen’s 1-2 hitters get lowered to 8-9 using the tool, suggesting Ozzie has his top and bottom a bit backward. You’ll also notice that Pierzynski bats second in most of the worst lineups. Owens bats ninth, which is not a knock against him (second leadoff man), and Ownes-Getz at the top of the order gives the power in the middle more to drive in. If and when Getz proves himself able to get on base, I suspect there will be a flip in the lineup.

The power in the middle is impressive. Quentin and Thome serve the dual role of driving in the few runners they’ll see in front of them and setting the table for the power behind. Dye and Konerko should each drive in 100 runs even if they don’t hit that well, since Q&T should provide them numerous opportunities.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/031262.php

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Mar 5, 2009 7:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs