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Starter FIP Through 4/19

FP'd for the sake of a new thread...if someone else has something, I'll take it back down.

Using FIP = (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K)/IP +3.67, White Sox starters have delievered the following 2/5 the way through the third turn of the rotation:

Buehrle: 4.67

Floyd: 4.56

Danks: 4.34

Colon: 4.53

Contreras: 6.29

 

And for kicks:

Carrasco: 3.26

Richard: 5.47

Marquez: 7.50 (AAA - per First Inning)

 

Contreras has been near replacement level through his first two starts, but the rest have been quite good.  An average offense is going to win a lot of games with starts like these.  If/when Colon and/or Contreras go down for whatever reason, Richard and Carrasco can probably split starts/piggyback.  Marquez needs to stay the hell away from the major league team, as should the rest of the Charlotte rotation for now.  Reinforcements still aren't coming.  Surprise.

I matched the constant to RA rather than ERA, which makes average about 5.00.  Replacement level is like 6.4, but that's more of a best guess.  You can project this out into Wins Above Replacement pretty easily, since FIP is denominated in runs per nine:

Runs Above Replacement = (FIPreplev - FIP)/9*IP

Wins Above Replacement ~ RAR/10


                                                                                                                                                                                                               

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