Starter FIP Through 4/19
by colintj on Apr 19, 2009 11:06 PM CDT
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PrintFP'd for the sake of a new thread...if someone else has something, I'll take it back down.
Using FIP = (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K)/IP +3.67, White Sox starters have delievered the following 2/5 the way through the third turn of the rotation:
Buehrle: 4.67
Floyd: 4.56
Danks: 4.34
Colon: 4.53
Contreras: 6.29
And for kicks:
Carrasco: 3.26
Richard: 5.47
Marquez: 7.50 (AAA - per First Inning)
Contreras has been near replacement level through his first two starts, but the rest have been quite good. An average offense is going to win a lot of games with starts like these. If/when Colon and/or Contreras go down for whatever reason, Richard and Carrasco can probably split starts/piggyback. Marquez needs to stay the hell away from the major league team, as should the rest of the Charlotte rotation for now. Reinforcements still aren't coming. Surprise.
I matched the constant to RA rather than ERA, which makes average about 5.00. Replacement level is like 6.4, but that's more of a best guess. You can project this out into Wins Above Replacement pretty easily, since FIP is denominated in runs per nine:
Runs Above Replacement = (FIPreplev - FIP)/9*IP
Wins Above Replacement ~ RAR/10
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I edited the formula
b/c i fucked it up. FIP is runs per nine, not runs per IP, so you have to divide by 9 to get it into R/IP, then you can multiply times IP to get runs. runs/10 = wins.
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So our worst starter so far is still slightly better then replacement level coming off a major surgery? Looks like we just need to stay healthy and we’ll be fine.
by Grinder in Training on Apr 20, 2009 7:41 AM CDT reply actions
I hate to do this
But I am a bit of a grammar stickler.
It would be better to state,“So our worst starter coming off a major surgery is still slightly better then replacement level?” Because the starter is coming off surgery, not the replacement level.
dont make the mistake I did
"I’ll take the old gray lady over the peanut gallery on some cow town blog."
MadVillian
pointed out UGods ambiguous antecedent (same as you)
and larry went on the warpath
the rest is history
"I’ll take the old gray lady over the peanut gallery on some cow town blog."
MadVillian
I actually thought about that and decided it was pretty obvious that the replacement level wasn’t coming off surgery and that everyone on this board knows that Jose is coming off major surgery, so I didn’t change it. Pure laziness on my part really.
by Grinder in Training on Apr 20, 2009 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions
You're both wrong!
Correction to joewho112’s correction:
“So our worst starter, coming off a major surgery, is still slightly better than replacement level?”
Then is not the same as than, so fuck you all. ;)
You are right. But larry is actually a prick too.
- HSA 01/07/09
good shit!
New favorite blog!
http://www.windycitygridiron.com/2009/4/26/854831/meet-your-2009-chicago-bears-draft#14884498
by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 29, 2009 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions
You quibble with his grammar but let that misused "then" walk?
Sharpen those eyes, captain
That slew of comments identical to mine but written long, long before mine was cloaked when I posted
so help me, Jeebus
NERDS ARE GAY!
New favorite blog!
http://www.windycitygridiron.com/2009/4/26/854831/meet-your-2009-chicago-bears-draft#14884498
by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 29, 2009 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd just like to see the walks come down.
That could create quite a problem this summer but I love the k’s, particularly Floyd’s 8.5 per 9inn and Danks 9.8 per 9. Get the walks down guys and it makes you upper tier.
Its also nice to see the team benefiting from a better than expected D so far. I know the best we hope for is avg because of range but I have become a mini fan of Konerko’s glove for routine plays. Steady. And makes the throw to 2nd look easy as hell.
"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."
by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."
defense has been top notch so far
I mean just look at Fields. We were all expecting and bracing for the worst from him and he proceeds to give us defensive gems. And as much crap as Dye gets for being slow he has held his own.
As far as Floyd is concerned, I would like to see solid back-to-back performances from him to really feel solid about him. I feel like MB and Danks have done just that.
Yesterday BHB did exactly as you instructed.
He looked in complete control.
We’re a pack of a-holes.
by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT
by winningugly on Apr 20, 2009 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions
Colin
I’ll push mine back to being published later tonight. If you could give it a lookover like last time, that’d be awesome. I’ll let you know when its done.
"2 years ago when I looked into my baseball magazine I saw the name Lars Anderson. I just thoguht, another draft pick that might not do anything. Also I though here might be the next Albert Pujols." -dasox313
k
its in there
"2 years ago when I looked into my baseball magazine I saw the name Lars Anderson. I just thoguht, another draft pick that might not do anything. Also I though here might be the next Albert Pujols." -dasox313
done
check it. wasn’t especially thorough, just looking for anything blatant that stuck out. it reads fine outside of one change i made to something less awkwardly phrased (yeah, i’m the one to do that…). give it a look.
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that's completely fine
i felt like i had a few in there and figured you would fix them
"2 years ago when I looked into my baseball magazine I saw the name Lars Anderson. I just thoguht, another draft pick that might not do anything. Also I though here might be the next Albert Pujols." -dasox313
i got lazy again
they will be making a comeback
"2 years ago when I looked into my baseball magazine I saw the name Lars Anderson. I just thoguht, another draft pick that might not do anything. Also I though here might be the next Albert Pujols." -dasox313
when we get to finals week i'll be able to crank them all out
"2 years ago when I looked into my baseball magazine I saw the name Lars Anderson. I just thoguht, another draft pick that might not do anything. Also I though here might be the next Albert Pujols." -dasox313
The organizational lack of starting pitching depth is an issue
I know it is for every team, but the Sox are at the higher end of the spectrum given that Colon and Contreras present big injury risks. And the top 2 replacement starters in Richard and Marquez look like junk so far. Right now, I would guess Carrasco would be my first choice to replace one of them.
You gotta remember how shitty replacement level is.
And replacement level, by definition, represents what everyone has on average in the minors.
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It represents what everyone should have in the minor leagues
In 2007, the Sox had had hard time getting replacement-level performance from several replacements.
by hitlesswonder on Apr 20, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions
hence "on average"
and 2007 looks more and more like an outlier when compared to the rest of Kenny’s tenure, doesn’t it?
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If the Sox are still competing for first place, and one of the pitchers went down, we could still look outside the organization. We didn’t spend much money this off season, we could probably take on a veteran from a team that is out of it early if we did have a long-term injury.
by Grinder in Training on Apr 20, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions
It should be a decent market for SPs at the deadline
by Daniel Berlyn on Apr 20, 2009 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions
pedro
New favorite blog!
http://www.windycitygridiron.com/2009/4/26/854831/meet-your-2009-chicago-bears-draft#14884498
by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 29, 2009 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Isn't 3.67 high?
Not that it matters, but the numbers would all look better if you used something like 2.5 ;)
Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
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3.67 seems high because it's matched to RA rather than ERA
if i used ERA it would have been ~3.4 iirc. scoring is up so far, which is another reason for the seemingly high constant. but you can do all this yourself pretty easily using fangraphs. took me a couple minutes.
THIS STORY ONLY ENDS ONE WAY
Where do you get the replacement level values (for each position, not just pitching) from?
I believe the common character of the universe is not harmony, but chaos, hostility, and murder.
it depends.
replacement level can be calculated empirically a number of ways. but for a position player it’s around -20 runs above average. pitching, iirc, is 128% of league average FIP. which is what i used to get 6.4.
THIS STORY ONLY ENDS ONE WAY
i have to go to wrigley tomorrow night from oak park
would it be easier to drive or walk?
maybe i'll shit my pants
tomorrow at work. (gotta make a big scene so he sees it).
just think about being forced to watch the cubs play for three hours.
that should cause you to lose control of your bowels.
thank god mr. marquez doesn't read this site.
well played sir
i believe you owe me a drink by the way.
here comes hsa bumbling and tumbling home!!!
oh she’s out
by furby2056
I believe you are correct.
We’re a pack of a-holes.
by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT
by winningugly on Apr 21, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Green Line to State & Lake,
then transfer to Red Line Subway (Northbound) on State St.
Get off when everyone else does.
"I am not going out like SSH. "
by WTGTD, 12/3/08
that sounds like a nightmare
around 10PM. maybe i’ll take a cab home.
blunt.
Chris (NJ): What is the problem with Alexei Ramirez?
Joe Sheehan: This has been stuck in the queue for a calendar year, I presume.
He’s not that great at baseball. Good tools that enable him to do some things, but the skills are nowhere to be found. Juan Samuel with less upside.
thank god mr. marquez doesn't read this site.
even better.
bam022 (Chicago): What’s the ETA on Gordon Beckham. He’s been tearing it up in AA. Also, do you see him moving to 2B in the majors? He’s still at SS in the minors.
Joe Sheehan: The reason to play him at short is so that you’ll move Ramirez to CF, but that presumes Ramirez improves on last year and is better overall than Anderson. I don’t think you move Ramirez to 2B, because he’s terrible there and the bat doesn’t play.
At what point do we scratch our heads and wonder why we’re making so many decisions around Alexei Ramirez? Maybe he should be the supersub, starting four days a week at four positions and pinch-running for Jim Thome the other days.
thank god mr. marquez doesn't read this site.
i was thinking
the last time i saw a player look so lost at the plate was cory snyder in his days with the sox.
that being said joe sheehan is a DB.
Snyder? Blast from the past.
I had him on my fantasy team when he was with the Injuns. Loads of potential. Didn’t exactly realize it.
Sheehan sucks like Keith Law sucks. At least give Che props for last year. “The bat doesn’t play”? Fer Chrissakes. Che will be fine. Maybe his wife started talking to Count’s ex.
We’re a pack of a-holes.
by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT
"Bat doesn't play" : I think he meant Ramirez's glove was so bad at 2B his bat doesn't make up for it
Although maybe I’m being generous. If Alexei is Samuel-lite, it’s hard for me to believe that bat is unacceptable at 2B (he was a 100 OPS+ guy routinely for his first few years).
by hitlesswonder on Apr 20, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions
does it make sense to reason that his struggles at the plate are not costing us games?
thus let’s wait and see if he can get out of the slump during the next month. In that scenerio, the best case outcome: our top, middle, and bottom of the lineup are all hitting well, worst case: we have a clear reason to bench him and forget about the last year and Beckham can have his SS spot.
But yeah, right now Alassey look lost
of course wait and see.
barring injury, there’s rarely a need to make major roster decisions before june 1. but sheehan’s point is certainly correct – it’s silly to make roster decisions around a lesser player. which, no matter what you think of alexei, ramirez is when compared to beckham. it may end up that ramirez is a lesser player than getz, too. i would imagine, however, that the competition between whatever is in center and ramirez is much closer.
thank god mr. marquez doesn't read this site.
Ahhh, Joe you are so much wiser than the rest of us
You knew Alexei was actually bad even when he was good.
I will admit, it should have been clear going forward that Alexei wasn’t someone you should expect to provide a 100 OPS+ given his lack of discipline at the plate.
By the same token, it seems silly to say Alexei is and would be terrible at 2B given one year of defensive stats.
by hitlesswonder on Apr 20, 2009 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions
This all seems ridiculous to me over 40 abs
His BABIP last year was .294 hardly the luckiest in the world. He needs to make adjustments. Maybe he will, maybe he won’t but I ain’t buying anybody’s I told you so crap right now, because they have been wrong up to this point.
"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."
by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."
i could have bought such stuff maybe ten years ago.
but, these days, while teams certainly go over an opposing player with a fine tooth comb in the offseason and likely come up with a new wrinkle or two, it’s not like teams weren’t scouting him last year during the season pretty heavily. one year flukes tend to be much more obvious these days. i find it hard to buy that alexei is going to completely shit the bed.
thank god mr. marquez doesn't read this site.
FUCKKKKKKKK
I lost a long response I wrote.
Cliff notes.
I agree they DID make adjustments on him last year.
This is where you need to not just look at numbers and watch him. Clearly impatient, especially first few games.
Hasn’t lost bat speed or strength.
Heard press clippings and trying to launch balls too much.
Rest of offense working helps him, should relax soon after few hits.
A .750-.800 ops and above avg D at SS and I’m all good.
"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."
by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."
Oh and saying he's just not that great at baseball
is just plain stupid Joe.
"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."
by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."
Sheehan is confusing to read
“not that great” and “bat won’t play at 2B” stuff, followed by a low ceiling Juan Samuel reference. Samuel had a good bat for a 2B for several years. That doesn’t tell me exactly how good/bad he thinks Alexei will be on average over the next 3 years. Not as good as last year seems reasonable and maybe he thinks that. I don’t know.
But, in any case, implying that people should have seen this April performance coming because of last year’s performance is simply obnoxious.
by hitlesswonder on Apr 20, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Let me be the first here to say Q sucks!
you’ll all scoff now, but just you wait a few thirty years when he can only hit 10 homers a year and remember you told ya so.
by Trooper on Apr 20, 2009 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
His words just brim with arrogance
my response can — per usual — be summed up in an AD quote:
“You’re just a turd out there…”
(Lest I be jumped upon for ripping BP, I take more issue with his arrogant certainty in the first quote. The second one seems pretty on-point.)
That's Sheehan
He’s a smart guy but that’s his personality to a tee.
"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."
by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."
can someone clarify what the difference here is between 'tools' and 'skills'?
I believe the common character of the universe is not harmony, but chaos, hostility, and murder.
tools are raw physical skills
"2 years ago when I looked into my baseball magazine I saw the name Lars Anderson. I just thoguht, another draft pick that might not do anything. Also I though here might be the next Albert Pujols." -dasox313
and what are skills then?
I believe the common character of the universe is not harmony, but chaos, hostility, and murder.
seems like word play to me
I believe the common character of the universe is not harmony, but chaos, hostility, and murder.
skills is actually being able to do shit
for instance, having incredible speed is a tool, but it doesn’t mean you will be a good fielder, base runner, or thief. those are skills
"2 years ago when I looked into my baseball magazine I saw the name Lars Anderson. I just thoguht, another draft pick that might not do anything. Also I though here might be the next Albert Pujols." -dasox313
right so Sheehan by saying ' skills are nowhere to be found'
is in effect saying he’s no better than a replacement level player – I find that difficult to believe. Mind you he’s been fucking hopeless in every game I’ve watched him in so far
I believe the common character of the universe is not harmony, but chaos, hostility, and murder.
what is he saying then?
I believe the common character of the universe is not harmony, but chaos, hostility, and murder.
a very toolsy player could easily produce more than replacement level.
i don’t know why you bring that concept into this.
thank god mr. marquez doesn't read this site.
' skills are nowhere to be found '
that’s the quote – no skills, that’s what he thinks
I believe the common character of the universe is not harmony, but chaos, hostility, and murder.
well I guess this one's going to run and run
we’ll have a better idea whether he’s right or not in a couple of months, he’s been decent so far in the field from what I have seen though
I believe the common character of the universe is not harmony, but chaos, hostility, and murder.
and that's the wrong ergo.
especially considering one is over-analyzing a line from joe sheehan. and a joe sheehan chat, of all places. rhetorical flourish anyone?
thank god mr. marquez doesn't read this site.
' seems like word play to me '
I believe the common character of the universe is not harmony, but chaos, hostility, and murder.
he should just say ' I think he's a bag of pig shit '
which is what he thinks anyway
I believe the common character of the universe is not harmony, but chaos, hostility, and murder.
Alexei in April '08
.138 average
.345 OPS
He only had 29 ABs then but still, he’ll heat up with the weather.
here comes hsa bumbling and tumbling home!!!
oh she’s out
by furby2056
Larry, did you get a chance to snap a few pics of those dead polo horses
I heard a total of 21, I am sure you would not miss a chance to expand your gallery
FIP, etc.
Could someone please splain to me, by an earlier link, what the formula means?
Because I do not know what your stats mean or how you arrived at the formula.
here you go
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_independent_pitching_statistics
"2 years ago when I looked into my baseball magazine I saw the name Lars Anderson. I just thoguht, another draft pick that might not do anything. Also I though here might be the next Albert Pujols." -dasox313
and now you set me on wikipedia link travel
from DIPS to FIP to BABIP to Tom Tango and so on … and I was so supposed to read domain driven design instead … arrrgh
FIP is the go-to pitching stat, stands for Fielding Independent Pitching
read everything under Win Values
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Hey cool, exactly 100 comments!
Oh, shit. DELETE DELETE DELETE DELE
by The Actual El Guapo on Apr 20, 2009 11:12 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
It's colintj, FFS
we wouldn’t want to fuel his ego or anything.
You are right. But larry is actually a prick too.
- HSA 01/07/09
wonder how much FIP would change
if you accounted for SB’s.
pitchers don't control SBs?
Yeah, right, colintj, tell me another one!
You are right. But larry is actually a prick too.
- HSA 01/07/09
so our beloved buehrle
does not control SBs?
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