See You in September - Pitching Wrap-up From Cubs vs. White Sox

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 1, 2009 1:31 PM CDT

This has been fun, thanks for sharing the space. Wrapping up means stats, and I'm covering all five games the Cubs and White Sox have played in 2009.

We talked about run value, run value per 100 pitches (rv100) and run value above average (rvaa) earlier, but now I'm introducing Expected Run Values (rv100e and rvaaE). Using park adjusted rates for batted ball outcomes (liner, fly, grounder, pop), I applied the expected outcomes rather than real outcomes when calculating run values for batted balls. So, a line drive was part double, single, homer, triple and out, and the values are adjusted for The Cell and Wrigley Field.

To add to the mix, I'm including a whole lotta of breakdowns, by pitch type, by pitcher, plus whiff rates, in wide zone (IWZ) rates, fastball speed, heater/change gaps and I think that's it. Some of the tables have a little split in them, that's when I'm showing the leaders and trailers. Last thing - negative means good for run values (when it comes to pitchers).

rvaaE
John Danks	Change	-1.790
John Danks	Cutter	-1.244
Randy Wells	Slider	-1.157
David Patton	Sinker	-1.103
Jose Contreras	Fastball	-1.039

Ryan Dempster	Fastball	2.318
Ryan Dempster	Sinker	1.348
Ryan Dempster	Splitter	1.290
Carlos Zambrano	Sinker	1.272
John Danks	Fastball	1.226

rv100e (5+ pitches)
D.J. Carrasco	Fastball	-8.35
Aaron Heilman	Slider	-7.77
David Patton	Sinker	-7.36
Jose Ascanio	Change-up	-6.28
Aaron Heilman	Sinker	-5.45

D.J. Carrasco	Curveball	9.22
Ryan Dempster	Splitter	8.60
Aaron Heilman	Fastball	8.43
David Patton	Curveball	8.21
Gavin Floyd	Change-up	7.70

Avg Fastball	MPH
Bobby Jenks	96.4
Matt Thornton	96.2
Jose Ascanio	95.2
Kevin Hart	94.7
Scott Linebrink	94.4
Angel Guzman	93.9
Carlos Marmol	93.6
Aaron Poreda	93.4
Kevin Gregg	93.3
Jose Contreras	93.3
Octavio Dotel	93.1
Aaron Heilman	92.6
Carlos Zambrano	91.6
D.J. Carrasco	91.6
John Danks	91.3
Gavin Floyd	91.2
Randy Wells	91.0
Ryan Dempster	90.5
Mark Buehrle	86.8

Speed gap (5+)	mph
Scott Linebrink	10.5	Fastball	Change
Scott Linebrink	10.1	Sinker	Change
Jose Ascanio	10.0	Fastball	Change
Ryan Dempster	9.0	Fastball	Splitter
John Danks	8.7	Sinker	Change
John Danks	8.1	Fastball	Change
Aaron Heilman	8.0	Sinker	Change
Ryan Dempster	7.8	Sinker	Splitter
Mark Buehrle	7.5	Fastball	Change
Aaron Heilman	7.2	Fastball	Change
Carlos Zambrano	7.1	Fastball	Splitter
Mark Buehrle	7.0	Sinker	Change
Randy Wells	6.9	Fastball	Change
Carlos Zambrano	6.8	Sinker	Splitter
Gavin Floyd	6.4	Fastball	Change
Gavin Floyd	6.2	Sinker	Change
Randy Wells	6.1	Sinker	Change

Whiffs
Aaron Heilman	.375
Bobby Jenks	.308
John Danks	.304

Carlos Marmol	.000
Aaron Poreda	.000
Sean Marshall	.000

IWZ
Aaron Poreda	.714
Randy Wells	.600
Sean Marshall	.600

Jose Ascanio	.355
Ryan Dempster	.416
Mark Buehrle	.449

Starter rv100e
Jose Contreras	-1.65
Randy Wells	-1.11
John Danks (2)	-1.00
Mark Buehrle	0.42
Carlos Zambrano (2)	1.04
Gavin Floyd	1.27
Ryan Dempster (2)	2.17

Reliever rv100e
Bobby Jenks	-2.90
Scott Linebrink	-2.35
Aaron Heilman	-1.82
Kevin Gregg	-1.43
Matt Thornton	-1.33
D.J. Carrasco	-1.15
David Patton	-0.75
Octavio Dotel	-0.26
Kevin Hart	0.67
Angel Guzman	0.74
Jose Ascanio	2.16
Carlos Marmol	2.53
Sean Marshall	3.21
Aaron Pordea	3.50

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Comments

whats the significance of the bold face names?

"It doesn't take long for a Rolls Royce to warm up." - Hawk Harrelson

by e-gus on Jul 1, 2009 11:57 AM CDT reply actions

nevermond

thats just the first time they are listed.

duh

"It doesn't take long for a Rolls Royce to warm up." - Hawk Harrelson

by e-gus on Jul 1, 2009 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions

It's the SBN auto-linker

It takes you to their own player page

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 1, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions

This is pretty useful information, Harry.

Do you do this for every series the Cubs play? Where do you get these numbers?

by Daniel Berlyn on Jul 1, 2009 12:16 PM CDT reply actions

Not every

Depends on how much time I have. I think I did one or two others like this one at Cubs f/x.

The data comes from mlb, it’s part of the Gameday application, and the files are available and downloadable (Brooks Baseball has links and some instructions, Beyond the Box Score has some tutorials). I do the pitch classifications myself (Gameday’s are too erratic for my taste) and the rest is magic. Or math.

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 1, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions