See You in September - Pitching Wrap-up From Cubs vs. White Sox

This has been fun, thanks for sharing the space. Wrapping up means stats, and I'm covering all five games the Cubs and White Sox have played in 2009.

We talked about run value, run value per 100 pitches (rv100) and run value above average (rvaa) earlier, but now I'm introducing Expected Run Values (rv100e and rvaaE). Using park adjusted rates for batted ball outcomes (liner, fly, grounder, pop), I applied the expected outcomes rather than real outcomes when calculating run values for batted balls. So, a line drive was part double, single, homer, triple and out, and the values are adjusted for The Cell and Wrigley Field.

To add to the mix, I'm including a whole lotta of breakdowns, by pitch type, by pitcher, plus whiff rates, in wide zone (IWZ) rates, fastball speed, heater/change gaps and I think that's it. Some of the tables have a little split in them, that's when I'm showing the leaders and trailers. Last thing - negative means good for run values (when it comes to pitchers).

John Danks Change -1.790
John Danks Cutter -1.244
Randy Wells Slider -1.157
David Patton Sinker -1.103
Jose Contreras Fastball -1.039
Ryan Dempster Fastball 2.318
Ryan Dempster Sinker 1.348
Ryan Dempster Splitter 1.290
Carlos Zambrano Sinker 1.272
John Danks Fastball 1.226


rv100e (5+ pitches)
D.J. Carrasco Fastball -8.35
Aaron Heilman Slider -7.77
David Patton Sinker -7.36
Jose Ascanio Change-up -6.28
Aaron Heilman Sinker -5.45
D.J. Carrasco Curveball 9.22
Ryan Dempster Splitter 8.60
Aaron Heilman Fastball 8.43
David Patton Curveball 8.21
Gavin Floyd Change-up 7.70


Avg Fastball MPH
Bobby Jenks 96.4
Matt Thornton 96.2
Jose Ascanio 95.2
Kevin Hart 94.7
Scott Linebrink 94.4
Angel Guzman 93.9
Carlos Marmol 93.6
Aaron Poreda 93.4
Kevin Gregg 93.3
Jose Contreras 93.3
Octavio Dotel 93.1
Aaron Heilman 92.6
Carlos Zambrano 91.6
D.J. Carrasco 91.6
John Danks 91.3
Gavin Floyd 91.2
Randy Wells 91.0
Ryan Dempster 90.5
Mark Buehrle 86.8


Speed gap (5+) mph
Scott Linebrink 10.5 Fastball Change
Scott Linebrink 10.1 Sinker Change
Jose Ascanio 10.0 Fastball Change
Ryan Dempster 9.0 Fastball Splitter
John Danks 8.7 Sinker Change
John Danks 8.1 Fastball Change
Aaron Heilman 8.0 Sinker Change
Ryan Dempster 7.8 Sinker Splitter
Mark Buehrle 7.5 Fastball Change
Aaron Heilman 7.2 Fastball Change
Carlos Zambrano 7.1 Fastball Splitter
Mark Buehrle 7.0 Sinker Change
Randy Wells 6.9 Fastball Change
Carlos Zambrano 6.8 Sinker Splitter
Gavin Floyd 6.4 Fastball Change
Gavin Floyd 6.2 Sinker Change
Randy Wells 6.1 Sinker Change


Aaron Heilman .375
Bobby Jenks .308
John Danks .304
Carlos Marmol .000
Aaron Poreda .000
Sean Marshall .000


Aaron Poreda .714
Randy Wells .600
Sean Marshall .600
Jose Ascanio .355
Ryan Dempster .416
Mark Buehrle .449


Starter rv100e
Jose Contreras -1.65
Randy Wells -1.11
John Danks (2) -1.00
Mark Buehrle 0.42
Carlos Zambrano (2) 1.04
Gavin Floyd 1.27
Ryan Dempster (2) 2.17


Reliever rv100e
Bobby Jenks -2.90
Scott Linebrink -2.35
Aaron Heilman -1.82
Kevin Gregg -1.43
Matt Thornton -1.33
D.J. Carrasco -1.15
David Patton -0.75
Octavio Dotel -0.26
Kevin Hart 0.67
Angel Guzman 0.74
Jose Ascanio 2.16
Carlos Marmol 2.53
Sean Marshall 3.21
Aaron Pordea 3.50

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