This has been fun, thanks for sharing the space. Wrapping up means stats, and I'm covering all five games the Cubs and White Sox have played in 2009.
We talked about run value, run value per 100 pitches (rv100) and run value above average (rvaa) earlier, but now I'm introducing Expected Run Values (rv100e and rvaaE). Using park adjusted rates for batted ball outcomes (liner, fly, grounder, pop), I applied the expected outcomes rather than real outcomes when calculating run values for batted balls. So, a line drive was part double, single, homer, triple and out, and the values are adjusted for The Cell and Wrigley Field.
To add to the mix, I'm including a whole lotta of breakdowns, by pitch type, by pitcher, plus whiff rates, in wide zone (IWZ) rates, fastball speed, heater/change gaps and I think that's it. Some of the tables have a little split in them, that's when I'm showing the leaders and trailers. Last thing - negative means good for run values (when it comes to pitchers).
rvaaE | ||
John Danks | Change | -1.790 |
John Danks | Cutter | -1.244 |
Randy Wells | Slider | -1.157 |
David Patton | Sinker | -1.103 |
Jose Contreras | Fastball | -1.039 |
Ryan Dempster | Fastball | 2.318 |
Ryan Dempster | Sinker | 1.348 |
Ryan Dempster | Splitter | 1.290 |
Carlos Zambrano | Sinker | 1.272 |
John Danks | Fastball | 1.226 |
rv100e (5+ pitches) | ||
D.J. Carrasco | Fastball | -8.35 |
Aaron Heilman | Slider | -7.77 |
David Patton | Sinker | -7.36 |
Jose Ascanio | Change-up | -6.28 |
Aaron Heilman | Sinker | -5.45 |
D.J. Carrasco | Curveball | 9.22 |
Ryan Dempster | Splitter | 8.60 |
Aaron Heilman | Fastball | 8.43 |
David Patton | Curveball | 8.21 |
Gavin Floyd | Change-up | 7.70 |
Avg Fastball | MPH |
Bobby Jenks | 96.4 |
Matt Thornton | 96.2 |
Jose Ascanio | 95.2 |
Kevin Hart | 94.7 |
Scott Linebrink | 94.4 |
Angel Guzman | 93.9 |
Carlos Marmol | 93.6 |
Aaron Poreda | 93.4 |
Kevin Gregg | 93.3 |
Jose Contreras | 93.3 |
Octavio Dotel | 93.1 |
Aaron Heilman | 92.6 |
Carlos Zambrano | 91.6 |
D.J. Carrasco | 91.6 |
John Danks | 91.3 |
Gavin Floyd | 91.2 |
Randy Wells | 91.0 |
Ryan Dempster | 90.5 |
Mark Buehrle | 86.8 |
Speed gap (5+) | mph | ||
Scott Linebrink | 10.5 | Fastball | Change |
Scott Linebrink | 10.1 | Sinker | Change |
Jose Ascanio | 10.0 | Fastball | Change |
Ryan Dempster | 9.0 | Fastball | Splitter |
John Danks | 8.7 | Sinker | Change |
John Danks | 8.1 | Fastball | Change |
Aaron Heilman | 8.0 | Sinker | Change |
Ryan Dempster | 7.8 | Sinker | Splitter |
Mark Buehrle | 7.5 | Fastball | Change |
Aaron Heilman | 7.2 | Fastball | Change |
Carlos Zambrano | 7.1 | Fastball | Splitter |
Mark Buehrle | 7.0 | Sinker | Change |
Randy Wells | 6.9 | Fastball | Change |
Carlos Zambrano | 6.8 | Sinker | Splitter |
Gavin Floyd | 6.4 | Fastball | Change |
Gavin Floyd | 6.2 | Sinker | Change |
Randy Wells | 6.1 | Sinker | Change |
Whiffs | |
Aaron Heilman | .375 |
Bobby Jenks | .308 |
John Danks | .304 |
Carlos Marmol | .000 |
Aaron Poreda | .000 |
Sean Marshall | .000 |
IWZ | |
Aaron Poreda | .714 |
Randy Wells | .600 |
Sean Marshall | .600 |
Jose Ascanio | .355 |
Ryan Dempster | .416 |
Mark Buehrle | .449 |
Starter rv100e | |
Jose Contreras | -1.65 |
Randy Wells | -1.11 |
John Danks (2) | -1.00 |
Mark Buehrle | 0.42 |
Carlos Zambrano (2) | 1.04 |
Gavin Floyd | 1.27 |
Ryan Dempster (2) | 2.17 |
Reliever rv100e | |
Bobby Jenks | -2.90 |
Scott Linebrink | -2.35 |
Aaron Heilman | -1.82 |
Kevin Gregg | -1.43 |
Matt Thornton | -1.33 |
D.J. Carrasco | -1.15 |
David Patton | -0.75 |
Octavio Dotel | -0.26 |
Kevin Hart | 0.67 |
Angel Guzman | 0.74 |
Jose Ascanio | 2.16 |
Carlos Marmol | 2.53 |
Sean Marshall | 3.21 |
Aaron Pordea | 3.50 |
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