My Quick Take on the Peavy Deal
I voted this week in the Minor League Update poll that Aaron Poreda would be a reliever, specifically a closer. I go back and forth on whether he's a starter or reliever but more often recently I've settled on a reliever.
I've not been on the "Clayton Richard is horsedung" one week and "Clayton Richard is awesome" another week ride that others have. He's probably a #4 starter.
I consider Adam Russell largely useless. Basically Masset.
Dexter Carter currently projects as a reliever. If he managed to develop a changeup, he could end up being a #3 / 4 type starter but his fastball is probably average-ish and his curve can be plus but is inconsistent due to his mechanics. Could all this get sorted out? Sure. But he's a long way from the majors.
And, since all of these guys are pitchers, there's the attendant increased injury risk over a position player.
So, the White Sox acquire a frontline starter under control for 3-4 more years for a bunch of guys who may not be much more than relievers or backend rotation types. Sounds good, right? Well, the potential problem with the deal is that Peavy's contract isn't good. By no means is it bad but it's not like he's being grossly underpaid. He makes $15M, $16M, $17M, and $22M ($4M buyout) over the next four years. His salary is quite reasonable this year but the Sox are going to be paying him for at least one month of touring North Carolina and training rooms and i'd say it's debatable what the Sox will be getting out of him after he returns from injury.
Essentially, the Sox traded for a guy being paid about what he'll be worth going forward and gave up some cheap parts who, no matter what their blemishes, are very likely will be providing some significant surplus value to the Padres going forward.
I don't hate the deal - and if Peavy comes back strong to close out this season I'd hate it less - but this isn't a slam dunk for the Sox, either. Kenny Williams is gambling again and we'll see how he does this time.
over 2 years ago
larry
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Good analysis as always Larry
One thing I think this trade does greatly simplify things going forward — like you said, the Sox basically traded a bunch of unknown quantities for one sure quantity. Now they have the rotation for 2010-2012 set. They can focus their attention on other areas.
There is something to be said for risk and risk management as well though. It’s almost like someone said, “I’ll give a guaranteed 5% yield and you give me your more volatile investment”
We’ll see if the surer thing turns out to be the higher yield investment here.
well, peavy still isn't a sure quantity
as evidenced by this season. the sox are great at keeping guys healthy so they’re probably thinking they can do the same with peavy. but you get a season where peavy is out for half the year again and you’re blowing $9M or something on nada and that probably consumes most/all of any surplus value peavy has. another thing is that the “headliners” in this deal for the white sox aren’t exactly far from the big leagues so you’re not necessarily discounting the future for present (not to mention peavy’s current status). richard is a contributor now. poreda could be a contributor now and certainly next year. russell is shit so who cares either way. carter obviously is the potential huge upside for the friars but…eh. it will be interesting to see how it plays out. i don’t view any of the prospects as being sure things at this point so that certainly softens the blow.
White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry
RE: the health angle
That’s the organization’s MO with the starters. For the most part they’ve been successful with it.
Anyways, well said, again.
I'm pretty much with you.
My initial and later more analytical reactions are both neutral. I hope it works out.
This is a high risk/high reward deal.
The high risks are numerous – money, parl/leagueperfomance translation/prospect undervaluation. The reward is also potentially high -a former Cy who pitches like it under contract for 3-4 years. Rolling the dice is KW. We know how much he values prospects – trading chits (except when you’ve got a diamond like Becks), so this is consistent for him.
We’ll see. In the meanwhile, he’s back on the front page, having not only aced out the AL Central, but the crosstown boobs, too. Good work.
We’re a pack of a-holes. by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT
And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site...
continues.by ReservoirDog on Jul 21, 2009 2:30 PM EDT
just saw his interview on mlb network
If he had any kind of foresight at all he would have known the Padres werent good, wouldnt have hurt his ankle for us, and maybe the Sox are in 1st place.
just saying.
The president was drinking Bud Light, Biden was drinking Buckler (a nonalcoholic beer), Gates was drinking Samuel Adams Light and Crowley was drinking Blue Moon.
I don't hate the deal, but.........
Way to step out there big guy. Still waiting for wind direction?
Sox win, cubs lose.....what a wonderful world!
it's a fine deal.
one doesn’t have to hate or love a deal. there’s plenty in the middle.
White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry
And Glenn Beck has higher ratings than Newshour with Jim Lehrer.
by Dongfang Hong on Jul 31, 2009 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions
But Rachel's quiet, reasoned intelligence draws more than Beck.
The lesson is that there’s room for thought out even-handedness… Or tha Larry should turn lesbian.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand."
— Leo Durocher
by Chiburb on Jul 31, 2009 6:11 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Rachel. Please.
A man with a soft voice. And cute eyes.
We’re a pack of a-holes. by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT
And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site...
continues.by ReservoirDog on Jul 21, 2009 2:30 PM EDT
WHITE SOX RAPE, PILLAGE SAN DIEGO AND CARRY-OFF CY YOUNG AWARD WINNER AND FUTURE HALL OF FAMER PEAVY. LEAVE BEHIND A BUNCH OF PLAYERS I'VE NEVER HEARD AND PROBABLY SUCK.
White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry
by larry on Jul 31, 2009 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
You've never heard of them?
You’ll never write for a real blog.
"wordy and overly verbose."
by larry on Jul 3, 2009 3:43 PM CDT
by Black Sox Baseball on Jul 31, 2009 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions
let me know when any of them win a CY YOUGN AWARD.
pEAVY IS THE greateest
White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry
The "rape" part is totally and literally accurate, though.
KW will have to hope that the Padres are too ashamed to go to the police.
by Dongfang Hong on Jul 31, 2009 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good analysis tells you the factors at play, and explains how they'll combine going forward.
Bad analysis declares an opinion and then justifies it. I’m not a big fan of criticizing analysis for “not stepping out there,” especially if the point of the argument was that the trade was a gamble that can’t really be declared great or terrible yet.
by Dongfang Hong on Jul 31, 2009 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree with that whole-heartedly
Unless the “analyst” is a blow-hard with a superiority complex that enjoys ripping everyone else’s opinion but is afraid to offer one.
Sox win, cubs lose.....what a wonderful world!
ripping someon else's opinion necessarily means that i'm offering my opinion.
White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry
Dude you totally pwned him
larry must be a Cuban, so fucking stupid.
The Chicago Bulls.....the more profitable Los Angeles Clippers.
by Ozzie Montana on Jul 31, 2009 6:46 PM CDT up reply actions
The Ligues are a fearsome bunch
The Chicago Bulls.....the more profitable Los Angeles Clippers.
by Ozzie Montana on Jul 31, 2009 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions
lol.
you know, if you’re going to rip on another poster’s spelling, you may want to check your own. especially when it’s in the same thread.
White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry
the biggest problem here is definitely
Peavy’s health vs. the size of the contract.
THIS STORY ONLY ENDS ONE WAY
His injury is an ankle
It’s not like he’s coming back from Tommy John surgery or what Count had
It's a tendon in his ankle. Not exactly a splintered finger.
I understand you’re saying the injury isn’t terrible, but it’s bad enough to be cause for concern. I’d hate to see him re-injure it after what larry just said about money and down time.
"wordy and overly verbose."
by larry on Jul 3, 2009 3:43 PM CDT
by Black Sox Baseball on Jul 31, 2009 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed
He’s had elbow issues in the past, and his mechanics put him at higher risk for future elbow/shoulder problems.
But it’s nice to add a pitcher who, when healthy, will provide 4-5 WAR over the course of a season. Surplus value is nice, but so are more wins when you are paying fair for them just what they’re worth
by 3E8 on Aug 1, 2009 2:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Count me as seeing it Kenny's way.
Peavy actually has a side session tomorrow, and could be rehabbing in 2 weeks. While the future is the real deal, I think there will be benefit to this team by late August.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand."
— Leo Durocher
by Chiburb on Jul 31, 2009 6:06 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
it all comes back to Massett
with larry
"you should go back to your cowardly practice of offering no opinion of your own."
-picktoclick
by Where Triples Go to Die on Jul 31, 2009 6:14 PM CDT reply actions
also, can not be created or destroyed
"you should go back to your cowardly practice of offering no opinion of your own."
-picktoclick
by Where Triples Go to Die on Jul 31, 2009 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions
as one approaches the speed of light, one acquires infinite masset
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
by thatshortkid on Jul 31, 2009 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I feel the Padres should give us Richard back
Their fans keep calling him Richards. He deserves better.
by Grinder in Training on Jul 31, 2009 6:19 PM CDT reply actions
My initial thoughts
Mark, Jake, Gavin and John? God the future looks bright.
I’m a very happy man. Even if he does cost a grip. At least Jerry is showing he’s willing to pay
you're on first name basis with all these guys?
awesome
by soxshenanigans on Aug 1, 2009 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Clayton would have had 10 starts from here to finish?
and we get 5 replev and 5 Peavy starts in return? Clayton is about a 5 FIP, replev is 6. So if Peavy gives us a 4 FIP, we break even from a wins perspective.
THIS STORY ONLY ENDS ONE WAY
not even factoring in the likelihood of skipping the 5th with off days.
someone quoted KW? saying there should only be 3 5th starts til Peavy can go.
well that would be nice.
i could definitely see the Sox going to the pseudo 4 man down the stretch again.
THIS STORY ONLY ENDS ONE WAY
i don't think
Richard is a good fit in SD. He seems to do well exclusively in gun-to-the-head situations…SD is not exactly a pressure cooker.
If a player cannot thrive in an environment as laid back as SanDiego. Then he aint nothin special.
Oz+Coop+Hawk= baseball trinity
Anyone find Peavy's interleague splits?
Seems they would be appropriate, but my limited internet searching skills can not find them.
fucking dome
3.29 ERA in 20 starts, 120 IP.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jul 31, 2009 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Thanks, Larry.
1. Health.
2. Sox don’t throw big money around regularly. They must like Peavy lots. And their financial projections indicated that it was a go.
But what about F-I-E-L-D-E-R-S?
The problem wasn't pitching
it’s hitting. We are averaging just over 3 runs a game over the past 12 games. I’m not knocking the Peavy trade, love it, but our offense still sucks. If we make the playoffs you have to really like our chances.
but our offense still sucks. If we make the playoffs you have to really like our chances.
Oz+Coop+Hawk= baseball trinity
ffense is coming - in 2010-2011.
Pitching always keeps us in the game, and it won a WS for us. Tough to argue with that level of success.
We’re a pack of a-holes. by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT
And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site...
continues.by ReservoirDog on Jul 21, 2009 2:30 PM EDT
leadoff, duh
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
by thatshortkid on Jul 31, 2009 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Not talked about much
But does Contreras come back cheap next year if he pitches out the year?
"Oh well back to work"
Contreras? Why aim so low?
Kenny’s gonna trade what’s left in the farm system for Halladay. Buehrle/Halladay/Peavy/Danks/Floyd FTW!
Psh, he'll get Haren too, 6 man rotation!
The Chicago Bulls.....the more profitable Los Angeles Clippers.
by Ozzie Montana on Jul 31, 2009 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Ok, I had some time to digest. The reason I was rubbed wrongly was mostly Richard...I recently took a liking to that big-toothed, big-game guy. Also, the want for something NOW is strong within me. :)
But like Chi told me, one team doesn’t have to lose for another to win.
If Peavy is good to go in September, he could very well seal the deal in the Central (assuming we’re still in it); and at least makes our rotation for 2010 and beyond, stellar.
On the other hand, who knows how he’ll pitch fresh off of injury and in a new league.
Definitely a risk, but I am still goddam happy that KW did something.
And more importantly than something, BETTER than the Tigers and Twins.
He is a mad scientist, that KW.
What about the fact that Peavy doesn't want to play for the Sox???
Doesn’t that factor in peoples’ analysis that Peavy was hoping to pitch for the Cubs or Dodgers???
nope
while i’m sure he likes to bat in the NL, i think he knows playing for ozzie and, above all, a winning team, is a no brainer. i really think the sale had to be made primarily to his wife who was not about to leave sunny SD at the drop of a hat.
Peavy is a valuable player
and San Diego deserves to get value in return. I’ve got no problem if Richard or Poreda turn out to be solid mlb pitchers, I wish them well.
I like the trade. Sox have a lot of surplus payroll room next year, and they converted unknown pitching into known pitching at a cost of $$$ which they can afford to spend. Looks like a win/win to me, solid trade.
"It was like everything was slow motion," Wise said. "I stuck my hand out so slowly and was able to make the catch."
So, it's obviously risky
For it to be a win:
a) Peavy has to stay healthy and pitch well
b) His contract can’t prevent the team from acquiring needed talent elsewhere on the field (the Texas A-Rod syndrome)
I’m hoping that the budget allows the Sox to put some money into the an OF still. I guess we’ll see. I wonder, though, if doesn’t mean both Thome and Dye have to be gone in 2010.
I also, I liked Richard — he definitely changed my mind about his ability to be a major league pitcher. I think he’ll do well in SD.
On the plus side, it’s impressive to see the Sox make a big-league move to win (even it’s in 2010 moreso than 2009). They aren’t selling off, they are trying to build a good team for several years.
As long as the contract doesn’t significantly constrain the budget, I’m OK with the trade. As if anyone cares.
I like it but...
I love that Kenny has the sack to make these moves. Trading a few prospects and one suspect for a proven winner is typically a good idea. The only think I wonder is what we it look like if we kept these guys and used the $16M in free agency instead. In a way the player(s) we could have signed with the Peavy money needs to be considered as part of this deal. Assuming the Sox don’t add $20 in payroll that opportunity cost is real.
Sarasota Sox Fan
The opportunity cost is real either way
Could the Sox have signed Lackey to a 3 year deal at something like $17M or $18M per year instead?
I don’t know…Williams is not an idiot, so they undoubtably considered that. The answer must have been that they thought NYM, NYY, LAA or BOS would offer more years for the premium pitchers and I think they are probably right. The Sox cannot really compete with those teams for the top free agents, especially pitching in that they can’t afford the risk entailed by a big contract that runs 5 years.
by hitlesswonder on Jul 31, 2009 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions
The Sox aren't going to sign a pitcher like Peavy as a FA
They’ll never win in a bidding war vs NY or BOS or LA, look at the Torii Hunter nonsense. Plus they’d give up first round draft picks for signing him. A trade like this is the only way they’d pick up a player of this caliber.
"It was like everything was slow motion," Wise said. "I stuck my hand out so slowly and was able to make the catch."
that is certainly true
both in terms of annual money and deal length.
White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry
The only "bidding war" they've won in similar contracts
has been with the guys already on the team – PK, MB,etc. Teh Torii, et. al. spurn us.
We’re a pack of a-holes. by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT
And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site...
continues.by ReservoirDog on Jul 21, 2009 2:30 PM EDT
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