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Tony Pena is Octavio Dotel's Successor

In a post that was written only in my head during yesterday's off-day, I was trying to figure out where the most obvious, cost-effective areas would be for the White Sox to acquire talent as the trade deadline approached. They've got (or previously had) 4 obvious holes; third base (now covered by Beckham), second base (starting to figure things out with a platoon of Getz/Nix), center field (to be filled by Pods when Quentin comes back) and 5th starter (waiting for Richard/Poreda to figure things out). In each instance I seemingly talked myself out of pursuing an upgrade as I just wasn't imaginative enough to come up with realistic cost-effective solutions.

There was, however, one more area I could envision the Sox upgrading at what I imagined wouldn't be such a talent-cost burden; the bullpen, specifically another right-hander. I wasn't going to bother wading through possible trade targets -- there are just too damn many potential targets -- but in my mind, I was thinking about the David Riske deal of a few years back. 

Enter Tony Pena in the White Sox annual trade with the Diamondbacks.

Pena is an Octavio Dotel-type fastball-slider pitcher, though he's never had a Dotelian ability to miss bats. His mid-90's fastball has helped induce groundballs at a much higher rate than Dotel, however. He's shown flashes of greatness, and at one point appeared to be Arizona's closer of the future. In fact, just this year, he had a 1.85 ERA, good component ratios, and held opponents to a .626 OPS through the season's first two months (a span of 24 appearances). But since June 1, he's been terrible, allowing 18 hits over his last 9.2 innings, good for a 1.038 OPS allowed and 10.24 ERA

I can't see any major difference in his pitch f/x data since then, so I'm not really sure what to make of the recent ugliness aside from your usual reliever volatility. I'm not quite sure how to feel about the notion of the Sox scouting him during that stretch. On one hand, it could be a Matt Thornton type situation, where Don Cooper and the Sox scouting staff sees something that the Snakes don't, on the other ... Nick Masset.

Pena will be arbitration-eligible next year, which puts him under White Sox control through the '12 season, so this isn't a 1-year Riske-type hired gun acquisition. No, Pena is here to lighten the load on Linebrink, who has lost effectiveness in back-to-back days, and slide into the Dotel role as he probably moves on as a free agent this off-season. 

Through that prism, I love the acquisition of Tony Pena. He's a live-armed middle reliever with some potential to work high-leverage situations, and he's not a one-and-done mercenary. But, and this is a significant but, why did it have to cost Brandon Allen?

Colin and I disagreed a bit about Allen's expendability just a couple of weeks ago. I wasn't willing to pencil Allen into the Sox opening day lineup for next year, but I had his ETA pegged for mid-season '10, with him taking over full time for Konerko-Thome in '11. I couldn't see the Sox moving him because it would seem to point them in the direction of staying old-and-slow at 1B/DH in the not-too-distant future. The Sox obviously have different ideas.

It's not like Allen was without his faults. It wasn't until a breakout campaign last year that I started paying attention to him again, and even then it was really only when he began tearing up AA. He didn't have the strike zone control of future major leaguer at the lower levels, though he has improved on that significantly in the last two seasons. For me, the bigger question is what happened to his power? His ISO has dipped to its lowest since he first hit full-season ball, and has struggled in his very short stint at AAA thus far.

It's for those reasons that I could probably very easily be convinced that trading Allen was the right move. I'm just having a hard time wrapping my head around moving him in a deal for what seemed to be the Sox 5th most pressing need, even if I do like the guy we got.

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Comments

Display:

BTW, that trade is looking better, isn't it?

Vazquez is excellent this year and Young very not so much. Granted, Vazquez isn’t on the Sox anymore but he gave the Sox a lot of good innings. And there’s a chance Flowers value ends up on par with Young’s.

Of course if Allen being traded is a prelude to Flowers moving to 1B, that’s unfortunate. Anyway, now that I’ve crossed the Vazquez trade off the negative side of Williams ledger he goes and does this. Hmmm.

by hitlesswonder on Jul 7, 2009 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

actually I was thinking that AZ had Tony Clark playing first base semi regularly ...

and they are out of it and probably will trade Haren. I have heard good things about Allen and thought maybe we could send Allen and a couple prospects to arizona for Haren.

I thought about this on Sunday when Haren was selected to the all star game.

Kenwo4life=ratings

by KenWo4LiFe on Jul 7, 2009 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would have been happy with Allen and others for Haren.

Sucks that we traded him for someone of lesser value.

Flowers – who is apparently the motherfucking boogeyman of the southern league

by omnipotent grab on Jul 7, 2009 10:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

you're right, we should have gone for the ace

we chose the middle reliever instead, though, and we’re going to have to deal wit it

by Daniel Berlyn on Jul 7, 2009 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This package for Haren

would have included what?

Time to show Walker and Dotel the door.

by ballyb on Jul 7, 2009 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking Allen, Poreda and a low level prospect

maybe i am on crack. i don’t know. just an idea. I was disappointed when i heard we traded him and all we got was Pena

Kenwo4life=ratings

by KenWo4LiFe on Jul 7, 2009 11:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Crackhead.

We’re a pack of a-holes.
by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT

by winningugly on Jul 8, 2009 8:17 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

definitely on crack

I love this team again. I know they’re bad for me.
They’ll probably get drunk again and beat me… but I just can’t help myself.
by ReservoirDog on Jul 3, 2009 10:18 PM CDT

by e-gus on Jul 8, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

"maybe"?

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
White Sox news, Minor Leagues updates and more

by The Wizard on Jul 9, 2009 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know people have been talking about this but,

What will this do to Poreda’s already spotty playing time…?

It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.

They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.

by ElDiablo on Jul 8, 2009 12:25 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

ohh

so I just read this entire post, and it wasn’t until halfway thru it that I realized this deal actually happened.

by shaftr on Jul 7, 2009 9:58 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I ain't no reporter...

I ain’t bound by no inverted triangle…besides there was already a thread that made it clear ;)

by The Cheat on Jul 7, 2009 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just a good honest blogger, ma'am

don’t know none of that Hollywood stuff

by Daniel Berlyn on Jul 7, 2009 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

no, I'm not complaining about the writing

I was just out all night and came home and was reading the first story.

by shaftr on Jul 7, 2009 10:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

hooray he's gone.

this isn’t a Swisher situation, so presumably this is Allen’s actual worth? jeez. he was a borderline top 100 prospect coming into the season. i find it a bit hard to believe the Sox couldn’t have sold him before his value sank this low. or something. i r confuzd.

THIS STORY ONLY ENDS ONE WAY

by colintj on Jul 7, 2009 10:05 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Correct me or insult me if this is dumb.....

But, the Sox already have a ton of money tied up in another 1B/DH prospect (Viciedo). I know from the minor league reports Allen was tearing it up, but is his potential any greater at this point than Dayan?

The Chicago Bulls.....the more profitable Los Angeles Clippers.

by Ozzie Montana on Jul 7, 2009 10:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, maybe

Viciedo has been pretty bad in AA. Low average, no power, no BBs, and bad defense. Allen was very good in AA. Viciedo is younger, but that’s it. A bunch of other guys are younger than Allen won’t be as good at baseball as Allen currently. Right now Viciedo might very well be one of them.

by hitlesswonder on Jul 7, 2009 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

brandon allen at age 20 in A ball.

.213/.257/.380.

low average, no power, no BBs and bad defense.

White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry

by larry on Jul 7, 2009 10:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

As much as I joke

I don’t feel safe referencing Viciedo’s age so carelessly

by Daniel Berlyn on Jul 7, 2009 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right, but since then Allen has done stuff that Viciedo has not

Now, Viciedo might very well go on to do those things too or eclipse, but he hasn’t yet and I have no way of evaluating the likelihood of him doing so. Obviously, the Sox scouts have a much better idea than me, but on the other hand we did see the recent post from a scout about being unimpressed with Viciedo.

Anyway, is Allen’s potential greater? He’s more athletic and he’s hit in the minors. Viciedo is younger. Obviously the Sox think they have someone that makes Allen expendable, but I’m not sure that it’s Viciedo.

by hitlesswonder on Jul 7, 2009 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

i'd consider it fairly obvious that viciedo's potential is greater.

White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry

by larry on Jul 7, 2009 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And regardless of whether or not it is,

they already tied a boatload of money to Viciedo. So, there it is.

Ed Farmer: "Is it raining in here?"
Steve Stone: "I've made an egregious mistake."

by RWShow on Jul 7, 2009 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

i don't think you can disregard the money

considering that rather speaks to what they think his potential is.

White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry

by larry on Jul 7, 2009 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

how did you take that recent scouting report?

disconcerting a bit, non?

THIS STORY ONLY ENDS ONE WAY

by colintj on Jul 7, 2009 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

considering i heard goldstein provide a scouting report from presumably another scout that was the opposite on about each point.

i don’t really put a whole lot of stock into one scout’s opinion.

White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry

by larry on Jul 7, 2009 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It doesn’t matter if we had someone else to play 1B. That’s irrelevant. All that matters is if we got fair value for Allen.

by Grinder in Training on Jul 7, 2009 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

he wasn't really tearing it up.

and no. he’s a 1B/DH type whose ceiling is probably average at those positions.

White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry

by larry on Jul 7, 2009 10:09 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does this open the door for JD to DH next yeat

They were probably killing two birds with one stone. Make room for someone. JD? Quentin? Fields? Hah

by Shakey on Jul 7, 2009 10:30 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

allen's ETA was mid next season anyway, at best.

i don’t think this changes the plans for next season.

White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry

by larry on Jul 7, 2009 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gobble DFA'd after the game to make room for Pena

move was so obvious, I didn’t bother to mention the roster implications in the post

by The Cheat on Jul 7, 2009 10:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

well, it's a nice bullpen now

Jenks / Pena / Dotel / Linebrink / Carrasco / Poreda

by shaftr on Jul 7, 2009 10:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

...thornton

White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry

by larry on Jul 7, 2009 10:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

who? never heard of him.

Cashing checks and having sex.

by MarketMaker on Jul 7, 2009 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Late night.

We’re a pack of a-holes.
by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT

by winningugly on Jul 8, 2009 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

now that the sox aren't likely to be going with an 11 man staff (ha!)

the writing is on the wall for some outfielder.

White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry

by larry on Jul 7, 2009 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

At one point, I cared quite a bit which one was up.

I no longer do. BA is extremely unpalatable when his defense isn’t mind-blowingly awesome, and he continues to look pitcher-esque at the plate.

Ed Farmer: "Is it raining in here?"
Steve Stone: "I've made an egregious mistake."

by RWShow on Jul 8, 2009 12:28 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

nevermind

I was going to make a 2005 comment and liken Wise to Timo (average to below average defending left handed back up outfielder) but after a quick glance at BR, I feel I would be insulting Timo by even mentioning him in the same sentence as Dewayne. I have absolutely no idea how Wise is still in the big leagues. His career numbers are terrible. It’s a mystery how this guy has managed to stick around as long as he has.

THANK YOU NATE SILVER, TECHNOLOGY IS THE TOPS

by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

really?

His defense would have to be so good the opposing team only gets two outs each inning instead of three to bring his value up to par.

THANK YOU NATE SILVER, TECHNOLOGY IS THE TOPS

by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like the move

KW has earned the benefit of the doubt in trading prospects. I don’t think the return is that bad, a minor move but KW has taken Arizona so many times I’m surprised Colangelo still deals with him.

Besides, a 1st baseman can be found anywhere for a solid GM like KW. If not Viciedo or Flowers than maybe Q plays first as he ages or the Sox get creative.

Again, I like the move.

by madvillian on Jul 7, 2009 11:05 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

agree that 1B are dime a dozen - just look at the all-star game - so many of them

But Allen was so Ryan Howard like in Spring Training….and has something that other 1B do not have…speed and agility…

3 triples dude…

by el paulito on Jul 8, 2009 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

by ryan howard like

you mean black, plays 1B and bats left-handed?

White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry

by larry on Jul 8, 2009 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

exactly.

...take your hobbit circle jerk to another thread
by larry on May 18, 2009 8:58 PM PDT

by rhythm on Jul 8, 2009 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Same rhythm to his name, too.

Ah, the possibilities.

We’re a pack of a-holes.
by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT

by winningugly on Jul 8, 2009 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

With Gobble gone, our bullpen is considerably less offensive.

…to me, at least.

Ed Farmer: "Is it raining in here?"
Steve Stone: "I've made an egregious mistake."

by RWShow on Jul 8, 2009 12:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

booo

even if flowers or viciedo are going to first base like they should this is still a bad trade
was at the game though and it was amazing!!!
too dazed to think too much about this right now.

i'll delete your SSS existence in a second. there is nothing that allows SSS posters, at any one moment, to keep posting, but the mere pleasure of larry.
-larry

by blackoutsox on Jul 7, 2009 11:34 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Don't get too worked up about this

Kenny got a guy who can be a 7th-8th inning type who is under our control for cheap for 3 more years for a guy who MAY be able to contribute in 2 years. I’ll trust him on this.

Formerly Crede's Crew

by Q!'s Qrew on Jul 7, 2009 11:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

kenwo learned the hard way

well – its better than paying linebrink type money for middle relief…

by el paulito on Jul 8, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

so we're stuck with SLOW paulie for quite a time now? and have no lefty power bat after JT leaves?

and its not like middle relievers aren’t a dime a dozen either

i'll delete your SSS existence in a second. there is nothing that allows SSS posters, at any one moment, to keep posting, but the mere pleasure of larry.
-larry

by blackoutsox on Jul 8, 2009 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kenny has earned our trust on this...plain and simple

What’s to say this guy amounts to anything?
Keeping our bullpen solid is one of the keys to current and future success, which I’m sure you certainly know, as a reader of this site.

Formerly Crede's Crew

by Q!'s Qrew on Jul 8, 2009 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Weird

I had the same thought about Pena = Dotel 2.0 in the trade thread. Good write up.

by Franchise82 on Jul 7, 2009 11:53 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

makes sense

As has been said, this move makes perfect sense when you think about how it saves 5.5 million dollars in the 2010 salary (Dotel’s salary minus Pena’s). Viewed that way, the trade line for the sox looks like …

Allen = Cheap Dotel Jr. for 2009 and beyond + 2 high draft picks in 2010 + 5.5 Million

I think KW (and much of baseball) has fallen in love with draft so the assumption is a prospect of Allen’s caliber is more easily replaceable with 2 high picks than a low cost, mostly proven reliever. And bottom line is when you’re talking about 1B/DH prospects if they don’t have 30-40 HR potential, they just aren’t that great of prospects.

by rhombusface on Jul 8, 2009 1:07 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

2 points re Dotel & free agency.

1. Will the White Sox risk offering Dotel arbitration?

2. If Dotel is Type A FA, will another team sign him and lose their 1st round pick?

Time to show Walker and Dotel the door.

by ballyb on Jul 8, 2009 6:40 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think

no to #1 and ??? to #2.

Therefore Dotel is outta here in next 3 weeks.

Time to show Walker and Dotel the door.

by ballyb on Jul 8, 2009 6:50 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

because the sox won't get compensation for him they're going to trade him.

makes perfect sense.

White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry

by larry on Jul 8, 2009 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

if a clearly should be added it's because

dotel can help us win the division now, which comes attached with other goodies

Always bet on black!

by onlysoxfaninboston on Jul 8, 2009 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

they are not getting picks for him

but might net something marginal in a trade yet this year.

by Hatchetm on Jul 8, 2009 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

more likely scenario is the Dotel is to be traded

The Gobble will return! and Tony Pena will be the Dotel piece.

by el paulito on Jul 8, 2009 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Genius,

pure genius.

Time to show Walker and Dotel the door.

by ballyb on Jul 8, 2009 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dan Haren

is leading the majors in WHIP, 2nd in the majors in ERA, leading the majors in K/BB rate, signed for a few more years for cheap, and you think you’d be able to trade for him around your 5th or 6th best prospect??

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 8, 2009 10:22 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

No we don't...the guy playing on his XBox does

Most ppl are aware what the price for Haren would be

Formerly Crede's Crew

by Q!'s Qrew on Jul 8, 2009 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okay.

Just making sure.

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 8, 2009 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey,

we got Carlos Quentin for not all that much.

Time to show Walker and Dotel the door.

by ballyb on Jul 8, 2009 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

::head asplodes::

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 8, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry ;)

Time to show Walker and Dotel the door.

by ballyb on Jul 8, 2009 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

ahaha

I LOVE A.J PIERZYNSKI. WHITE SOX BASEBALL FUTILE TILL THE END. SOMETHINGS AREN'T EVEN WORTH FIGHTING FOR NO MATTER HOW HARD YOU TRY.

by pierzynskirules on Jul 8, 2009 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was a fair question, considering what the first post of the thread was.

But yeah, Haren would be a pipe dream.

Formerly Crede's Crew

by Q!'s Qrew on Jul 8, 2009 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

C'mon.

We would NEVER trade an MVP candidate for a minor league 1B/DH slugger-type player.

::glances side to side::

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 8, 2009 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

well-played.

Cashing checks and having sex.

by MarketMaker on Jul 8, 2009 11:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great deal...

All the above logic and financials seems compelling and as last night’s game proved, yet again, you can’t have too much pitching (good starters + having your ass covered bullpen wise starting in the 6th inning).

I don’t see KW trading Dotel before the deadline as adding pitching and focusing on this year has always been his MO.

By the way, of all the Sox hitters last night it looks like Alexei was the guy who was really on it last night. Every swing all night was a real dangerous major league stroke for him. Maybe it was just he sees Sowers well or he is just generally on fire. I’m thinking it’s the latter he’s going to have a monster July and August at the plate.

by Dick Allen's batting helmet on Jul 8, 2009 10:24 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Deal or value aside

I like Pena’s GB% and HR% in regards to the Cell.

"I'm just here to provide street cred and a rosy outlook"- translation - unemployed life coach

by Tdogg on Jul 8, 2009 10:37 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

If he's pitched around a 4 ERA

in the park with the 2nd highest park factor in the majors, (Chase Field) he should be alright at US Cellular.

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 8, 2009 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bonus feature of last night's game

Taking the blue line home from the game just in time to meet the rather glum looking cadre of Cub’s fans getting on at Addison street. In thier blue regalia they seemed to be making their best sad clown imitations. The 2nd millenia of losing Cubs baseball has arrived!!

by Dick Allen's batting helmet on Jul 8, 2009 10:46 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

haha!

I love this team again. I know they’re bad for me.
They’ll probably get drunk again and beat me… but I just can’t help myself.
by ReservoirDog on Jul 3, 2009 10:18 PM CDT

by e-gus on Jul 8, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Frankly,

I think I like the return we got in this deal, but over the past few years, Peña has been our best setup man and was sorta penciled in as the closer of the future. I’m really sorry to see him go, although, like I said, I like the return we got.

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 8, 2009 11:00 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

What about Peña's

L / R splits? Is he that bad?

Time to show Walker and Dotel the door.

by ballyb on Jul 8, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is he that "bad"?

No. Is he much better against righties? Yeah. When he’s on, he can be lights out — as in the first 24 outings this season.

He gets midseason fatigue around 25 appearances.

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 8, 2009 7:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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