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Around SBN: Ellenberger vs. Sanchez Heats Up, Hughes Talks Retirement

Flirting with Perfection

Have you heard enough about Mark Buehrle’s feats of perfection? (Nah, probably not.) The perfect game, 5.2 perfect innings in his next start, 45 batters in a row retired?  Amazing stuff, but here’s something new.

Back on May 7, all but forgotten now, Mark Buehrle threw 6.1 perfect innings against the Tigers before yielding a double to Placido Polanco.  That makes three starts of at least five perfect innings in the same season.  A five-inning perfect start is a significant achievement -- on average, only about 1 in every 300 starts reaches this milestone, or about once every ten years for the average pitcher.  Many pitchers go a whole career without ever taking a perfect game into the sixth inning.  So three in one season, well, that’s some serious hurling.  Has anyone else ever accomplished that?

It turns out that since 1953 (the Retrosheet era, for which we have play-by-play data), only four other pitchers have flirted with perfection, here defined as a start of 5+ perfect innings, three times in the same season. 

Star-divide

Juan Marichal of the Giants made four such starts in 1966 (25-6, 2.23, .859 WHIP, 6.5 K/9):

            6.0 inn., vs. Chicago, 4-12-1966
            5.1 inn., vs. Cincinnati, 4-28-1966
            5.0 inn., vs, Pittsburgh, 7-25-1966
            5.2 inn., at New York, 8-4-1966

Chris Short of the Phillies had three in 1966 (20-10, 3.54 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, 5.9 K/9):

            5.1 inn., at Chicago, 4-30-1966
            5.1 inn., vs. Los Angeles, 7-17-1966
            6.1 inn., at St. Louis, 8-10-1966

Doyle Alexander of the Yankees had three in 1976 (13-9, 3.36, 1.169 WHIP, 2.6 K/9):

            7.0 inn., vs. Cleveland, 6-24-1976 (second start after trade to Yankees)
            5.0 inn., at Baltimore, 7-28-1976
            6.2 inn., vs. Detroit, 8-2-1976 (next start)

Nolan Ryan of the Rangers had three in 1989 (16-10, 3.20, 1.086 WHIP, 11.3 K/9):

            6.2 inn., at Milwaukee, 4-12-1989
            5.0 inn., vs. Cleveland, 6-25-1989
            7.1 inn., at California, 9-30-1989

And now Buehrle, so far in 2009 (11-4, 3.45, 1.095 WHIP, 5.3 K/9):

            6.1 inn., vs. Detroit, 5-7-2009
            9.0 inn., vs. Tampa Bay, 7-23-2009
            5.2 inn., at Minnesota, 7-28-2009 (next start)

Interestingly, only one of these 16 efforts went the distance; none of the rest were completed even as no-hitters.

Marichal’s 1966 season was one of the best of all time, and with the sixth lowest season WHIP of the Retrosheet era, he would have been a top candidate to throw a perfect game.  (The lowest WHIP of the era was Pedro Martinez’s .737 in 2000; Bob Gibson in 1968 came in at .853.)  Amazingly, Marichal had only one other 5+ perfect start in his career, and it came in his major league debut, 6.1 innings against Philadelphia on 7-19-1960.

Ryan was regularly unhittable, but his high walk totals (3.7 per nine innings in 1989, compared to Buehrle’s 1.7 this year) made him less likely to throw a perfect game.  In the 23 previous major league seasons prior to 1989, he threw 5+ perfect innings on only three occasions, so the 1989 season doubled his total.  Perhaps at age 42 he had finally gained the composure necessary to maintain a perfect game.  The 7.1-inning effort against California was the longest of his career.

Short, with the highest WHIP figure on the list, is perplexing.  He had his best season in 1966, but in a decent 15-year career never flirted with perfection before or after.

Alexander caught fire after being traded from Baltimore to New York.  His run of perfect game bids came in his second start as a Yankee (7 innings), then his eighth start (5 innings) and ninth (6.2 innings). With a well-below-average strikeout rate, he relied on the men behind him to produce outs, making Alexander the most unlikely name on this list.  He pitched for 19 seasons and won 194 games, but on only one other occasion (8-23-1980) did he throw 5+ perfect innings.

And now Buehrle.  We’ve heard a lot of talk about how he pitches to contact and therefore has no business pitching a perfect game.  His strikeout rate (5.7) is below the league average (6.8), but his low walk rate helps negates that effect when it comes to being perfect. Something more is at work here, though, because perfect game bids are nothing new to Buehrle. He had three such starts early in his career (5.1 at Oakland on 5-20-2001, 5.0 vs. Tampa Bay on 8-3-2001, 6.1 at Cleveland on 7-21-2004).  With six now to his credit, he ranks second on the all-time list, one behind Nolan Ryan, in almost 500 fewer starts.

Most Perfect Starts of 5+ Innings, Career

No. Pitcher Innings, Ordered by Length GS W-L  ERA WHIP K/9
7 Nolan Ryan 7.1, 6.2, 6.0, 5.2, 5.1, 5.1, 5.0 773 324-292 3.19 1.247 9.5
6 Mark Buehrle 9.0, 6.1, 6.1, 5.2, 5.1, 5.0 289 133-91 3.78 1.257 5.3
6 Mike Morgan 6.1, 6.1, 6.1, 5.0, 5.0, 5.0 411 141-186 4.23 1.400 4.6
6 Randy Johnson 9.0, 7.1, 5.2, 5.1, 5.0, 5.0 603 303-166 3.29 1.171 10.6
5 Dean Chance 5.2, 5.1, 5.1, 5.0#, 5.0 294 128-115 2.92 1.212 6.4
5 Curt Schilling 7.1, 7.1, 5.0, 5.0, 5.0 436 216-146 3.46 1.137 8.6
5 Rick Wise 6.1, 6.0, 5.1, 5.0, 5.0 455 188-181 3.69 1.289 4.7
5 Juan Marichal 6.1, 6.0, 5.2, 5.1, 5.0 457 243-142 2.89 1.101 5.9
5 Mike Mussina 8.2, 8.1, 7.2, 6.1*, 5.1 536 270-153 3.68 1.192 7.1
5 Dennis Martinez 9.0, 6.0, 5.2, 5.2, 5.1 562 245-193 3.70 1.266 4.8
5 Tom Seaver 8.1, 7.0, 6.0, 6.0, 5.1 647 311-205 2.86 1.121 6.8

# Complete game shortened by rain.  *ALCS game.

 

Nine-inning perfect games are so fluky and make up such a small sample that they can’t be used to predict who’s likely to throw one.  Perfect starts of 5+ innings are more plentiful and allow us to identify the habitually perfect.  How do you think Buehrle compares with the rest?

One thing is certain.  Whether or not he is the type of pitcher who ought to pitch a perfect game, he IS the type of pitcher who can.

SouthSideSox is a community driven site. As such, users are able to express their thoughts and opinions in a FanPost, such as this one, which represents the views of this particular fan, but not necessarily the entire community or SouthSideSox editors.

Comment 66 comments  |  14 recs  | 

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interesting.

he has reached that list with far fewer starts than anyone on it except for Dean Chance who is about even.

I’d still take Tom Seaver, Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, Juan Marichal and possibly Mussina over him though… which is no slap in the face since they all will probably be hall of famers.

Kenwo4life=ratings

by KenWo4LiFe on Aug 1, 2009 9:53 PM CDT reply actions  

Thanks for that

Buehrle has pretty much been a Chicago secret for most of his career. Now with the perfecto, he is starting to get some of the national attention he deserves. He surprised me along with a lot of fans when he threw the no hitter in 07. The Perfect game not only validated the no-no but put him in some very elite company. Sox fans know that when he is on his game, he is like watching a Maddux or Glavine in their prime painting the corners, changing speeds and keeping hitters off balance. These stats further show how special he has been. Not bad for a kid drafted in the 38th round who never could hit 90 on the gun.

Sox win, cubs lose.....what a wonderful world!

by picktoclick on Aug 1, 2009 10:15 PM CDT reply actions  

Mark is going to the hall

a ring, a no-no and a perfecto, its a no brainier.

Go Huskies!

by Huskies1997 on Aug 1, 2009 10:26 PM CDT reply actions  

Lot more work to do before he gets in the Hall.

Miles to go before he sleeps and miles to go before he sleeps.

But what about F-I-E-L-D-E-R-S?

by ballyb on Aug 1, 2009 10:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

well ya

but he will most likely be a 300 game winner

Go Huskies!

by Huskies1997 on Aug 1, 2009 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

he doesnt want to play anymore.

knocked his fucking dick in the dirt! - BuehrleMan

by BoeJouma on Aug 1, 2009 11:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's not true.

He’d just rather be with his family – or in St. Louis.

"wordy and overly verbose."
by larry on Jul 3, 2009 3:43 PM CDT

by Black Sox Baseball on Aug 2, 2009 1:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

most likely?

THIS STORY ONLY ENDS ONE WAY

by colintj on Aug 2, 2009 12:56 AM CDT up reply actions  

well yeah

he will if he plays long enough plus i think he already has some 150 W’s

Go Huskies!

by Huskies1997 on Aug 2, 2009 9:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

"if" -- ay, there's the rub

These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.

by thatshortkid on Aug 2, 2009 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions  

but that's the whole problem

playing long enough isn’t just a matter of will.

THIS STORY ONLY ENDS ONE WAY

by colintj on Aug 2, 2009 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

Really interesting stuff.

Thanks muchly.

But what about F-I-E-L-D-E-R-S?

by ballyb on Aug 1, 2009 10:58 PM CDT reply actions  

good stuff

It’s not like he has had stellar defenses behind him either. Perhaps he lends more credibility that a pitcher can control where a ball is going to go.

by shaftr on Aug 1, 2009 11:06 PM CDT reply actions  

a1 post

i’m curious, what does the frequency look like if you change the criteria to a no hitter thru 5+? is it still elite, or is it significantly diluted?

by explodingpinwheelsforfunandprofit on Aug 1, 2009 11:20 PM CDT reply actions  

quite a bit different

The empirical probability of a perfect game through five innings: 0.306%, about 1 in 326 starts.

The empirical probability of a no-hitter through five innings: 1.47%, about 1 in 68 starts.

The career list of 5+ inning no-hitters is dominated by one man.

Here is the top 18 (of the Retrosheet era):

52, Nolan Ryan
27, Randy Johnson
20, Don Sutton
19, Gaylord Perry
16, Sam McDowell
15, Steve Carlton
15, David Cone
14, Tom Seaver
13, Sam Jones
13, Greg Maddux
13, Jim Palmer
13, Ken Holtzman
12, Dennis Martinez
12, Dean Chance
12, Vida Blue
12, Catfish Hunter
12, Woody Williams
12, Jim Bunning

Mark Buehrle, with 8, is tied for 59th on that list.

by SJBlonger on Aug 1, 2009 11:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

good stuff man

well done

"It was like everything was slow motion," Wise said. "I stuck my hand out so slowly and was able to make the catch."

by ChicagoPete on Aug 2, 2009 8:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

52!

The president was drinking Bud Light, Biden was drinking Buckler (a nonalcoholic beer), Gates was drinking Samuel Adams Light and Crowley was drinking Blue Moon.

by e-gus on Aug 2, 2009 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Brilliant cover, thanks very much.

The only thing that got me was the last line: “One thing is certain. Whether or not he is the type of pitcher who ought to pitch a perfect game, he IS the type of pitcher who can.”

I would have changed it to “he IS the type of pitcher that does.” Other than that, very enticing and well-written.

Rec’d to keep this around.

"wordy and overly verbose."
by larry on Jul 3, 2009 3:43 PM CDT

by Black Sox Baseball on Aug 1, 2009 11:38 PM CDT reply actions  

long time lurker?

cool stuff, man.

THIS STORY ONLY ENDS ONE WAY

by colintj on Aug 2, 2009 12:57 AM CDT reply actions  

He certainly did settle in quickly.

"wordy and overly verbose."
by larry on Jul 3, 2009 3:43 PM CDT

by Black Sox Baseball on Aug 2, 2009 1:15 AM CDT up reply actions  

first fanpost gets the front page, and 7 recs so far?

we have a new candidate for ROY here on SSS

knocked his fucking dick in the dirt! - BuehrleMan

by BoeJouma on Aug 2, 2009 4:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

thanks

Haha….yes, I am a long-time lurker. I’ve worked on this no-hit stuff for some time but never found a good time or place to start publishing. I could bore you to death with it. It all started with a game on 7-13-1980

I appreciate the kind comments from everyone.

by SJBlonger on Aug 2, 2009 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

Had to log into full site version to rec this.

Thanks.

"Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand."

— Leo Durocher

by Chiburb on Aug 2, 2009 5:51 AM CDT reply actions  

You'll be glad just to wake up.

Your wife, not so glad.

We’re a pack of a-holes. by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT
And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site...
continues.by ReservoirDog on Jul 21, 2009 2:30 PM EDT

by winningugly on Aug 2, 2009 8:01 AM CDT up reply actions  

Especially after they steal his kidneys.

"Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand."

— Leo Durocher

by Chiburb on Aug 2, 2009 6:28 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

And sell them to the Jews,

who will resell them. (You’ll get the topical reference, I bet.)

We’re a pack of a-holes. by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT
And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site...
continues.by ReservoirDog on Jul 21, 2009 2:30 PM EDT

by winningugly on Aug 2, 2009 6:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Good work.

Interesting MB is the only one of the 5 to take one of the 3 5-inning perfectos to completion. The man can close.

We’re a pack of a-holes. by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT
And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site...
continues.by ReservoirDog on Jul 21, 2009 2:30 PM EDT

by winningugly on Aug 2, 2009 8:44 AM CDT reply actions  

nice work! recd.

Took 3 years to find out about disco demolition night.

by Jackkoho on Aug 2, 2009 10:50 AM CDT reply actions  

or he could change it.

White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry

by larry on Aug 2, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Peavy's the new Chet Lemon

He hurt himself on the basepaths but is otherwise excellent.

by asinwreck on Aug 2, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

oh my god

david schuster just mentioned something about peavy’s “regiment”. you’d think these guys might know english. then again, maybe not.
(rosenbloom just said jose posada is not catching).

it is what it is......

by BuehrleMan on Aug 2, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions  

Interesting article...

I wonder what would happen if you expanded this to any string of 15+ batters retired, not just the first 15+ batters.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Aug 2, 2009 11:00 AM CDT reply actions  

Can someone help me find...

a list of Buehrle/Sabathia match-ups? I am bad at this kind of thing, sorry.

Your offense is only as good as your bullpen.

by defensive indifference on Aug 2, 2009 12:30 PM CDT reply actions  

Whoa...

not since ‘06? That doesn’t seem right at all. Didn’t they open ‘07 against each other? I would’ve guessed ’08 too. At the very least.

Your offense is only as good as your bullpen.

by defensive indifference on Aug 2, 2009 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

I knew we shouldn't have traded Masset

The Chicago Bulls.....the more profitable Los Angeles Clippers.

by Ozzie Montana on Aug 2, 2009 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Looks like Cheat needs to be traded.

We’re a pack of a-holes. by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT
And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site...
continues.by ReservoirDog on Jul 21, 2009 2:30 PM EDT

by winningugly on Aug 2, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

and no

I manually have to compare their list of games (though I can limit it by opponent)

by The Cheat on Aug 2, 2009 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

Thanks.

I figured there was something easier. And BTW, you just proved me to be a idiot, since I told a friend that I was looking forward to this match-up because they’ve faced each other so many times over the last few years. hahaha

Your offense is only as good as your bullpen.

by defensive indifference on Aug 2, 2009 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

i thought the same thing

I fugured they matched up at least 10 times.

The president was drinking Bud Light, Biden was drinking Buckler (a nonalcoholic beer), Gates was drinking Samuel Adams Light and Crowley was drinking Blue Moon.

by e-gus on Aug 2, 2009 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

here is a question

if a pitcher is having a perfect game and there is a pop up in foul territory in which the fielder drops it and is given an error. however, the pitcher goes on to retire the batter and goes on to finish the game having faced the minimum batters.

is that still a perfect game?

by The Scoper on Aug 2, 2009 3:40 PM CDT reply actions  

you dont get an error in that scenario

i believe.

The president was drinking Bud Light, Biden was drinking Buckler (a nonalcoholic beer), Gates was drinking Samuel Adams Light and Crowley was drinking Blue Moon.

by e-gus on Aug 2, 2009 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes, you do.

27 up, 27 down. No one reaches base. And of course there is an error.

We’re a pack of a-holes. by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT
And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site...
continues.by ReservoirDog on Jul 21, 2009 2:30 PM EDT

by winningugly on Aug 2, 2009 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

so whats the answer OPOS?

Took 3 years to find out about disco demolition night.

by Jackkoho on Aug 2, 2009 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Do I know you? Then you cannot use the OPOS, kid.

And the answer is given quite clearly. Perfect game, error.

We’re a pack of a-holes. by rhythm on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT
And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site...
continues.by ReservoirDog on Jul 21, 2009 2:30 PM EDT

by winningugly on Aug 3, 2009 6:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

If no one reaches base, then how is it not a perfect game?

The Chicago Bulls.....the more profitable Los Angeles Clippers.

by Ozzie Montana on Aug 2, 2009 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

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