Separated at birth - Derrek Lee & Paul Konerko: Who would you rather have on your team?

Hi SSS, I'm Dan, a Cubs fan and regular on BCB.  Here's a copy of the post I put up yesterday, and thought your site should get a chance to respond, too...

My roommate, a die-hard White Sox fan, and I were discussing the value of Derrek Lee & Paul Konerko.  Both of us agreed that our respective first baseman is the better choice.  I'll let Bleed Cubbie Blue make the decision.  I'll be posting this to South Side Sox, too, but need to wait a day to activate my membership.  I'll be certain to link to the results. 

Without further ado, I'll present the facts as straightforward as possible.  All statistics found below can be found using Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, and Fantasy Pitch FX, and is current as of 08/05/09.

Both players are 33 years of age, and entered MLB in 1997, and have played nearly the exact same number of games (1632 & 1652).  Derrek will turn 34 a few months before Paul.

Both players are right-handed hitters and fielders; they are approximately of the same stature: 6'3-5 & 205 lbs.

Derrek has been healthy throughout his career, with a broken wrist a few years ago, but this year has been bothered by back problems.  Paul has been even healthier, with only one short DL stint in his career.

Lee has made nearly $58M in his career; Paul, $66M.  Both are signed through 2010. 

Paul has been selected to the all-star game three times, Lee, twice; Lee has three Gold Gloves, Konerko has zero.  Lee was third in MVP voting in 2005, Konerko was sixth that same year; Lee has a Silver Slugger award, Konerko has a ALCS MVP trophy.

Both players have a world series ring; Lee in 2003, Konerko in 2005. 

Lee has a career OPS+ of 123; Konerko, 116, but Paul has slightly more HR (318 vs. 280) and RBI (1026 vs. 900).  Lee steals a lot more bases (100 vs. 7) and strikes out a lot more (1345 vs. 956).  Lee's wOBA is exactly .010 points higher than that of Konerko's, but the former's BaBIP is .040 points higher than the latter's.  Paul hits fly balls over 50% of the time; Lee, however, hits the ground ball nearly as much.  Paul hits into more GIDP than all but 6 of his peers; Derrek is 29th on this same active list.  Paul is about to crack the all-time top 100 HR hitters list; Derrek is 148th on this same career list.

In the playoffs, both have appeared in 5 series, with the Cub in 103 PAs vs. Sox 79 PAs.  Lee's power seems to escape him in the playoffs (dropping .188 in the post-season), whereas Konerko's is raised by .002 points, and is .167 better than Lee's overall.

As for fielding, the two's percentage could not be closer - .995 for Paul, .994 for Derrek.  Derrek's UZR/150 is -0.2, Paul's is -1.0.  Derrek has nearly 600 more putouts at 1B.  Derrek's range and errors above average are better than Paul's. 

Lee's career WARP is significantly higher than Konerko's: 48.2 vs. 28.9.  Finally, WAR for the two: 28.3 (Lee) vs. 17.4 (Konerko).  FanGraph's converted WAR into dollars values Lee's performance as over $35M higher than Konerko's.

A few of my thoughts:

I do not know of two professional ball players that could be more similar, and from the same city to boot!  In fact, BR has their "Most Similar" as being each other.  These two guys hit for power, play good (if not sometimes over-valued defense, at least in Lee's case) defense, have won World Series, and are proven leaders on their respective teams. 

For those BCBers that cried out last year about Lee's GIDP-ing, it could be worse.  Lee doesn't hit into double plays nearly as much as Pauly.  Derrek fails to hit for much power, or to drive in runs, during the playoffs.  Konerko's performance during the post-season is as solid as his regular season performance.  Lee seems to really benefit from his speed; his stolen bases total is much higher, his BaBIP is significantly higher (.40!), and he hits for more doubles and scores more runs.  Lee's speed also seems advantageous to his fielding, where he performs better defensively and covers more ground, while making fewer errors in more put outs.  Konerko is the typical power hitter; he hits the majority of his balls in the air, and is well situated in the 4 or 5 spot in any lineup.  

If I must choose, I select Lee.  Statistics show (although by tiny margins in some cases) that Lee is a more valuable player (WARP, WAR, UZR, OPS+, wOBA, BaBIP all show this).  Qualitatively, I think both players are leaders, represent their team well, and are excellent baseball players.  I wouldn't have a problem with Konerko. 

Dan

Lee BR

Konerko BR

Lee BP

Konerko BP

Lee FG

Konerko FG

PS - My roommate Chad will read this, and he sucks.  You can tell him this, too.  Go Cubs.

http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2009/8/5/979010/separated-at-birth-derrek-lee-paul