Should Gordon Beckham Replace Alexei Ramirez at SS in 2010?
by winningugly on Sep 16, 2009 12:18 AM CDT
122 comments
Tonight watching Che spray 3 straight singles (2 with 2 strikes to CF, one on a hit-and-run to RF), and Becks snaring two bullets at third, looking Crede-esque (Ventura-esque, according to Hawk), I thought it timely to revisit a debate last addressed last week. Che has a cheap contract, Becks is the cornerstone of the franchise's future. Both are "natural" SS's. What do you think? Trade, switch positions, or status quo?
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sigh.
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
by thatshortkid on Sep 16, 2009 12:26 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
There are the guys whose diapers we'll be changing in about 15 years.
Be afraid. Be very afraid. Etc…
THANK YOU NATE SILVER, TECHNOLOGY IS THE TOPS
by Hazymania on Sep 16, 2009 12:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In WU's case, 15 minutes.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand."
— Leo Durocher
by Chiburb on Sep 16, 2009 7:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
hilarious, rec'd
Would you please put some pants on? I feel weird having to ask you twice.
by jc2313 on Sep 16, 2009 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I won't be participating in this poll,
Jerry Owens isn’t an option.
THANK YOU NATE SILVER, TECHNOLOGY IS THE TOPS
by Hazymania on Sep 16, 2009 9:13 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
WU
Why the f*ck would the White Sox trade Alexei?
"Oh well back to work"
by Tdogg on Sep 16, 2009 10:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Last week it was being suggested by folks as
informed as larry and colin, IIRC, so I thought I’d bring it up again this AM. I have no idea why other than to move Becks to SS and glean greater value in a corner OF/2B. You know I’ve been aboard the Che train since ST last year (wavering only briefly through May, 2008).
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
by winningugly on Sep 16, 2009 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Instead of working on a paper on Borges you now have me wondering about the value in moving Alexei to left next season.
Becks to SS and finding a viable 3b option cough Figgins cough
THANK YOU NATE SILVER, TECHNOLOGY IS THE TOPS
by Hazymania on Sep 16, 2009 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
borges rulz
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing.
by colintj on Sep 16, 2009 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I might have to search for that chatter
I just don’t really see the value of trading away the value of Alexei. Improve him if you don’t like something but for pete’s sake don’t trade. Alexei is the type of player that allows the Sox to afford a Peavy or Rios.
"Oh well back to work"
by Tdogg on Sep 16, 2009 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the value is getting something else valuable in return.
kind of the point of trades.
by larry on Sep 16, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
duh
like what. Thus me saying perhaps I should search for the chatter. Personally I like the way Beckham seems to be growing into 3rd and I’m already on record with Alexei and short. Who exactly would be offering real value for Alexei?
"Oh well back to work"
by Tdogg on Sep 16, 2009 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
if he's such a valuable player to the white sox, it stands to reason that someone else would find him valuable, too, no?
and like anything the white sox view as an area that needs upgrading.
by larry on Sep 16, 2009 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I may not be among the informed
but consider me officially on that bandwagon as well.
Would you please put some pants on? I feel weird having to ask you twice.
by jc2313 on Sep 16, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
last week?
i thought that was a while ago. i recall saying i wouldn’t mind as long as the return was satisfactory. i feel that way about most players.
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing.
by colintj on Sep 16, 2009 8:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...I thought we discussed this about a month ago.
Anyways, I was basically on board of trading che’ if the return made sense. I still think you gotta move GB to SS at some point. If you can’t move him at the end of the year for some value just keep the current positions and try again later.
Alexei in LF, 2B, 3B or CF doesn’t work for me.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Sep 17, 2009 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is what I remembered (you might recognize the poster):
http://www.southsidesox.com/2009/9/4/1016586/freddy-garcia-just-knows-how-to#20761259.
12 days ago.
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
by winningugly on Sep 17, 2009 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
Alexei has demonstrated that he can be a league average SS making 1.1 million. Beckham has demonstrated the ability to play a plus 3B (since his initial struggles he has a plus UZR). There are questions about Beckham’s ability to play SS. I wouldn’t trade those two relative certainties for two unknowns (can Beckham play SS, can whoever replaces Beckham play 3B?).
Now there is always a package that can make you change your mind, but are the Sox really going to get the kind of player they would need (young, cheap and very good) for Alexei? You’re not gonna get a Lind, Votto, Rasmus type player for Alexei. Maybe you can get an Ellsbury or an expensive veteran who has more value than Alexei. But not someone good, young and cheap.
I always believe in shopping anyone. No one is untouchable. Heck, I’d trade Beckham for say Matt Kemp, Billingsley and Martin. But I just don’t see a payroll neutral upgrade that would be available for Alexei. Stranger things have happened, but I just don’t see it.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
by bhoov on Sep 16, 2009 11:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Flagged for selling out the Savior on the day of his birth.
YOU JUST RUINED CHRISTMAS!
THANK YOU NATE SILVER, TECHNOLOGY IS THE TOPS
by Hazymania on Sep 16, 2009 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
if beckham can play a plus 3B, it stands to reason he can play an average SS.
and i don’t see the logic that you can’t get a good, young and cheap player. alexei has a surplus value over the remainder of team control that can be approximated. you can do the same thing for any other player. his surplus value corresponds with a good, young and cheap player (you know, because that’s essentially what alexei is?), if that’s the route one chooses to go in trade.
by larry on Sep 16, 2009 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No not really
Joe Crede can play a plus 3B. I don’t think Joe Crede could play an average SS. I think the 3B to 2B transition case has been made. If the 3B to SS case has been made please point me to it.
I agree his surplus value is that of a good, young, cheap player. Give me one that you realistically think you could get for Alexei. Heck even give me some examples in the recent past of > 2 win, <3 year experience players being swapped for each other. Other teams are typically not willing to deal their good, young cheap players. When these types of trades do happen usually one or both of them are perceived to have value, but haven’t actually demonstrated value (see Delmon young for Garza). But I agree with you if you can get a Votto or Lind I’d do it. Like I said I have no problem with shopping Alexei or anybody else, it’s just hard to get equal payroll neutral value.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
by bhoov on Sep 16, 2009 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
volquez-hamilton
it’s not a transition. beckham is a SS playing third. everyone needs to stop this silly “beckham can’t play SS garbage.”
and votto and lind are more valuable players than ramirez so, unless someone is being an idiot, that’s not really a trade that gets made straight up.
by larry on Sep 16, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's kind of my point Larry
I get the whole thing about valuable players. But to Bhoov’s point I find it difficult to see this match made in heavan. At the very least among all trades I’d say its uncommon. I certainly wasn’t trying to imply Alexei should be untradable.
I don’t buy Beckham won’t be “xxx” shortstop either, but I do have my doubts he’d be better than Alexei over the next few years.
"Oh well back to work"
by Tdogg on Sep 16, 2009 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your doubts only exist because you have not seen it
There is nothing (scouting reports to his actual fielding of the position in his senior season to the minor leagues) to suggest Beckham would not be an average SS . . . which is what Alexei is . . . at best.
The fact Alexei is a SS and the general dearth of quality at the position, should lend itself to more opportunities than normal. There are plenty of teams that could use a player like him . . . take a look at the rosters. I just think it would be foolish to not aggressively pursue this avenue.
Would you please put some pants on? I feel weird having to ask you twice.
by jc2313 on Sep 16, 2009 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've already been chastized for using Jeter's 2009 UZR in comparison
to his career UZR. So how can you say Che is “average” after <1 year at the position? Does he appear more comfy? Is he making better plays than in the beginning of the year? I would withhold judgment on how “average” he is, esp. compared to someone who has not even played the position in The Show.
Just sayin’. And Becks looks MUCH more adept at 3B, as evidenced by last night’s plays.
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
by winningugly on Sep 16, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are right, I was giving him the benefit of the doubt
he is likely below average
Would you please put some pants on? I feel weird having to ask you twice.
by jc2313 on Sep 16, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And . . . the better Becks looks at 3rd
the less the “We don’t know how good he would be at SS” people should be concerned.
Would you please put some pants on? I feel weird having to ask you twice.
by jc2313 on Sep 16, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's fair
Though I believe with his range Alexei can be better than an avg at best defensive shortstop.
"Oh well back to work"
by Tdogg on Sep 16, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Point of clarification
“I just think it would be foolish to not aggressively pursue this avenue.”
Foolish? Again because the White Sox are hurting in the area? I missed that point and couldn’t disagree more.
"Oh well back to work"
by Tdogg on Sep 16, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
high trade value. internal replacement.
if you need to upgrade in other areas, like the white sox do, he’s a main trade chit.
by larry on Sep 16, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess
But again for me Beck plays 3rd, Alexei plays short. Move on to a different problem. Im fine with the infield next year.
"Oh well back to work"
by Tdogg on Sep 16, 2009 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
sometimes it's easier to solve one problem than another.
perhaps easier to find an acceptable 3B on the FA market than an acceptable OF? explore options.
by larry on Sep 16, 2009 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think Beltre is an interesting piece.
you put his glove at 3rd with Beckham, Nix/Getz and Konerko and you have a plus defensive infield
2009: Not with a bang but a whimper.
by Andronicus on Sep 16, 2009 8:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
I thought he’s be interesting in a trade this year. Would love to see him at 3B next year. Quite expensive, no?
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
by winningugly on Sep 16, 2009 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he might take a 1-yr at $7M...
or something in that range
2009: Not with a bang but a whimper.
by Andronicus on Sep 16, 2009 8:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What does hurting have to do with this?
The White Sox have 2 very valuable assets that occupy the same position. Playing either at any other position, likely lessens the value of that player. Presumably there are other teams that could use one of the assets more efficiently. I don’t understand the ‘hurting’ comment. It is for the exact opposite reason that you would pursue this.
Would you please put some pants on? I feel weird having to ask you twice.
by jc2313 on Sep 16, 2009 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
how does it lessen the value of that player?
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing.
by colintj on Sep 16, 2009 8:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Volquez
was not a > 2 win player at the time of the trade and Josh Hamilton’s drug abusing past was a key component of that trade. The idea that “beckham may not be able to play an average SS” is not garbage and it’s not silly. He has never had an Elvis Andrus type stellar defender reputation. Sometimes those guys with average to below average reputations wind up being average, sometimes they wind up below average, sometimes above average. He could be an average SS, but their is significantly more uncertainty about that than there is with Alexei.
As far as Votto and Lind yes they are more valuable. That’s exactly the point. I would only trade Alexei for like a more valuable player. Again give me somebody young cheap and more or even equally valuable that you think we could realistically trade Alexei for. And no I’m not interested in Jacoby Ellsbury because 1. I think Alexei’s more valuable and 2. We’ve got $60 million invested in his position.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
by bhoov on Sep 16, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, so now we're limiting it to players who are a > 2 player already.
i’m fine with being able to project surplus value for any player.
by larry on Sep 16, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought
that was clear. So it appears that our disagreement is that I would want someone with proven greater MLB value (realizing that no one is going to trade a top 10 in baseball prospect for Alexei) and you would be comfortable with someone with projected greater MLB value. I respect your opinion and I’m genuinely interested in who you “project” as having surplus value above Alexei that is realistically available. Obviously you’re not getting the Matt Wieters, Stephen Strasburgs and Jason Heywards of the world. Would you trade Alexei for say Brett Wallace?
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
by bhoov on Sep 16, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
sure, fine.
i generally find trade speculation to be a waste of time. ramirez has a high trade value. they have an internal replacement who is better than him. seems like a no brainer to explore trade possibilities. maybe i’m an idiot.
by larry on Sep 16, 2009 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Explore
yes. We agree there. I’m just not interested in trading him for a Brett Wallace level talent. I would want a real value upgrade that would manifest itself next year as well as in the future. I’ll be ecstatic if we get Lind or Andrus or Votto or Strasburg or Heyward. Obviously that’s not going to happen. I’d be very upset if we got Brett Wallace or Yonder Alonso or Freddie Freeman. Fortunately with KW as GM I don’t think that is going to happen either.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
by bhoov on Sep 16, 2009 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you'd be upset if the white sox acquired brett wallace for alexei ramirez.
well, that’s certainly an interesting position.
by larry on Sep 16, 2009 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wallace
posted an .822 OPS in AA and AAA this year. In combination with being limited to 1st base or DH that doesn’t translate to a 2.5 Win player next year. Yeah he probably projects to that in 2011 or 2012. But again unless it’s a real top talent I’m not interested in taking a value loss for next year.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
by bhoov on Sep 16, 2009 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Without a replacement at third base, Gordon would have to be significantly better than Alexei
As it stands both are productive players, Beckham may be a slightly better fielder than Alexei at short, but the return probably wouldnt be Brett Wallace, and the Sox dont have anyone waiting in the wigns for the hot corner.
If its Nix, its probably not worth it to trade Alexei. I dont think the other Cuban will stick at the hot corner. There arent any FA’s that blow me away at the position and trading for a third baseman seems like a lateral move.
"And when I called him, and asked him to stand up for me, I know I shocked the shit out of him" - Michael Jordan, on choosing David Thompson as his Hall of Fame sponsor.
by e-gus on Sep 16, 2009 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
lots of speculation there
that really could not be deciphered without actually pursuing this idea.
Would you please put some pants on? I feel weird having to ask you twice.
by jc2313 on Sep 16, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The answer to your question
is that would be ideal.
Would you please put some pants on? I feel weird having to ask you twice.
by jc2313 on Sep 16, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
change your pants before you post such thing.
I’ll shit if Cliff Lee comes anywhere near last year’s numbers.
I’ll bet he doesn’t record over 200 innings OR an ERA under 4.00.
by dantesox on Mar 27, 2009 3:58 PM CDT
by larry on Sep 17, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
going to the NL has a LOT to do with that.
"And when I called him, and asked him to stand up for me, I know I shocked the shit out of him" - Michael Jordan, on choosing David Thompson as his Hall of Fame sponsor.
by e-gus on Sep 17, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, he sucked a lot until he went to the Fils.
(Or, at least his W/L record did, in a comparative sense to how it is with the Fils. And, last time I looked, the Fils have a slightly better W/L record themselves than do the Injuns.)
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
by winningugly on Sep 17, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why?
Did you forget you spent 60 million on CF?
"Oh well back to work"
by Tdogg on Sep 17, 2009 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still need another OF next year beyond Rios
Ellsbury might not be that good of a CF anyway.
The reason I have no respect for these players, especially Thome is this…any player you can put a shift on is useless.
by jc2313 on Sep 17, 2009 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If that's the case
then don’t you kind of lose the appeal for him? I wouldn’t think that would be the ideal situation.
"Oh well back to work"
by Tdogg on Sep 17, 2009 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't forget anything
Ellsbury is better than Alexei, and Alexis. Keep Rios in RF, or put Ells in left and keep Rios in CF. Boston would never do the trade though, so it’s pointless to argue.
by BNeL21 on Sep 18, 2009 8:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"ellsbury is better than Alexis"
“keep Rios is RF”
eyes roll.
Yeah it is pointless if you think Ellsbury is better because of 1 year.
"Oh well back to work"
by Tdogg on Sep 18, 2009 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
get off your high horse. Your opinion isn’t infallible.
by BNeL21 on Sep 19, 2009 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its not a high horse
Its called like “numbers”
and Rios has like a few years of them.
Its also called historical fan graphs.
"Oh well back to work"
by Tdogg on Sep 19, 2009 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you'd take Rios over Ellsbury then?
I just feel Ellsbury will be the better player next year, and every year after that compared to Alexei and Alexis. We’ll just have to agree to disagree I guess.
by BNeL21 on Sep 19, 2009 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ellsbury is not a good defensive CF.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Sep 19, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How is he as a leadoff batter?
there's nothing like being rubbed ----by pierzynskirules
by mick10 on Sep 19, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You already know, don't you?
You’re the one saying Rios should move back to RF, and that’s a mistake.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Sep 19, 2009 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You might have me confused with someone else.
Rios should play center on our team. If we picked up Crisp or BJ Upton, I’d move him to rf but not for Ellsbury.
there's nothing like being rubbed ----by pierzynskirules
by mick10 on Sep 19, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And your sure of this because of his .767 OPS this year?
Come on man. He’s not even beating Alexei this year. Rios has a 4.5 and 5.5 WAR season under his belt in the
last 3 years. I’m not exactly why you “feel” that other than he steals bases.
"Oh well back to work"
by Tdogg on Sep 19, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dont get me wrong
I fully supported getting Rios and still do, and would be perfectly fine with Becks at 3rd and Alexei at SS.
by BNeL21 on Sep 19, 2009 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd add for me or IMO
I don’t really want to trade Alexei for future surplus value (again assuming not a ridiculous trade of talent our way). The Sox are set to win the next 2-3 years. Anything less than a division championship next year pisses me off.
"Oh well back to work"
by Tdogg on Sep 16, 2009 1:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If Alexei can bring a cheap corner OF under control fro a while that will post an +.800 OPS
They have to think about doing it. Someone like Reimold?
Otherwise I don’t see how the fill the holes at DH and OF. I don’t think they’ll be making any big FA signings. In I think they’ll sign a LH relief pitcher and that’s about it.
Of course, if they trade Ramirez, I don’t know who plays 3B. Uribe?
by hitlesswonder on Sep 16, 2009 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
NIX!!
God help us. Which is why I think we hang onto what we have.
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
by winningugly on Sep 16, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You could construct a roster
where Nix is part of a platoon that makes plenty of sense.
Would you please put some pants on? I feel weird having to ask you twice.
by jc2313 on Sep 16, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess if I was asking a question, your answer would make sense.
Would you please put some pants on? I feel weird having to ask you twice.
by jc2313 on Sep 16, 2009 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually like Nix..but more at 2B
People rip on his D but his range is really looks elite (or at least really, really, good). It’s hands and throwing and catching stuff that could use some work.
But, yeah, I don’t want him starting at 3B.
Unless the Sox come up with a cheap and good replacement 3B, they don’t really have a SS surplus.
Think the Rangers let their hitting coach work with Fields this winter? It’s not they are in the same division…
by hitlesswonder on Sep 16, 2009 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nothing they do at 3B changes
the fact they have 2 extremely valuable SS . . . and therefore a surplus.
Would you please put some pants on? I feel weird having to ask you twice.
by jc2313 on Sep 16, 2009 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
except for some reason
its lost that Beckhan can play 3b.
"Oh well back to work"
by Tdogg on Sep 16, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
beckham can also play 1B. and LF. and RF.
amazingly, alexei can do the same.
by larry on Sep 16, 2009 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How is that lost?
Seriously, I am surprised you are the one having this conversation . . . too much work, not enough baseball? Does the defensive spectrum need to be explained again?
The fact of the matter is that by playing Beckham at 3B, you are ABSOLUTELY not maximizing his individual value to the team. The same could be said for Alexei. Maximizing individual value ultimately maximizes team value . . . I am not saying that you trade Alexei at all costs. I am saying it would be foolish to not try and maximize player value . . . and having 2 valuable SS’s would make no sense if a reasonable trade existed . . .
Would you please put some pants on? I feel weird having to ask you twice.
by jc2313 on Sep 16, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
These are
not absolutes. If Gordon Beckham is a +5 3B and a -3 SS then you’re better off playing him at 3B. The difference in positional adjustment between SS and 3B is +5 runs. There are definitely players that would lose value by going from 3B to SS (i would think for example Joe Crede would be such a player). If I was pushed to project Beckham I wouldn’t project him to lose value like a Crede might. I’d be of the opinion that his projected UZR would decrease by around 5 runs going from SS to 3B, in other words a wash. Now this is based on his improvement at 3B both visually and by UZR, resulting in him being a plus 3B next year. But just like your speculation these are opinions and not absolutes. Beckham could be more valuable at SS. But he is not ABSOLUTELY more valuable at SS.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
by bhoov on Sep 16, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Using Crede as a point of comparison is ridiculous and provides no insight into this situation
And yes he is ABSOLUTELY more valuable individually at SS. Your playing around with numbers makes little sense either. Your projections of the UZRs are actually mildly amsuing more than anything.
Would you please put some pants on? I feel weird having to ask you twice.
by jc2313 on Sep 16, 2009 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey
If you don’t understand positional adjustments I suggest you read up on it. Individual players have different aptitudes for different positions. If you had read my post you would have seen that I actually said i think Crede would be more affected and thus made less valuable by a SS move. Beckham I believe would have the same value. What I find amusing is your absolute certainty that Beckham would go to a harder defensive position and retain his same value realtive to all SS that he would have relative to all 3B. Do you really think it ridiculous that Beckham would be a +5 3B in 2010 and a average (0) SS? Perhaps your superior scouting abilities is what underlies your absolute certainty.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
by bhoov on Sep 16, 2009 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't F**K with The Doc!
It’s ON.
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
by winningugly on Sep 16, 2009 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
While you are astute in stating that my scouting abilities are rather superior
I could also just rely on data to support my argument as well. If you would like, I could also just make up UZR’s for Beckham next year to make my argument if that suits you better?
If you want the data . . . a SS moving to 3B (which is the move Beckham is making) on average gains 1.8 runs . . . not 5 as your ‘projections’ suggest. An average 3B moving to SS loses almost 11 runs . . . you are missing a positional familiarity or skillset component. So, you are correct in stating the obvious . . . yes, Crede would be affected more by moving to SS. I think you understate how vast that difference would be. Making up a UZR where Beckham is 5 runs worse at SS than 3B is just as likely as a scenario where is he 3 runs better. Neither are likely. He is more valuable at SS than 3B individually, it is that simple. Whether his value to the White Sox is maximized at 3B remains to be seen, I rather hope not, but it certainly is possible.
Furthermore, one could easily make the argument that the 5 run adjustment between SS and 3B is understated . . . whether you factor in offensive adjustments or other data Tango and others have provided.
The reason I have no respect for these players, especially Thome is this…any player you can put a shift on is useless.
by jc2313 on Sep 16, 2009 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is exactly
my point. My numbers are indeed “made up”. They are based on my opinion that Beckham will be a + 3B, but may not have the range to be a + SS. Your “scouting report” which you could just as easily translate to a “made up” UZR is also based on your opinion that Beckham will be an above average SS. I’ve watched quite a bit of Gordon Beckham, probably 500 innings of his 750 innings at 3B. Maybe my opinion has a certainty of 50%. Ozzie Guillen has seen every inning of Gordon Beckham live and he was a MLB SS. Maybe his opinion as to whether Beckham will be a plus SS has a certainty of 80%. Let’s give you the benefit of the doubt and say you are a superior Ozzie Guillen level judge of SS ability.
Well that is still not “ABSOLUTE” certainty that he will be more valuable as a SS. We are dealing with human beings here. No matter what the average numbers of runs gained by the positional shift there are numerous examples of individuals that did not match those averages. There are numerous examples of fielders that lost or would lose value shifting from 3b to SS. Many of them started off as SS in high school or college. You’re telling me that you can say with “absolute” certainty that Beckham isn’t one of them? There are also numerous examples of fielders that looked phenomenal even after extended time playing MLB SS, but when you looked at the numbers they were actually not very good at playing SS. How can you after seeing Beckham play 750 MLB innings at 3B and 0 MLB innings at SS say with “absolute” certainty that he would be an above average SS. If you can do that then you should be running somebody’s draft and getting paid many millions to do it.
The idea that Gordon Beckham should be moved to SS and Alexei traded is an arguable point. The idea that Beckham could be more valuable at SS is plausible, maybe even probable.The idea that it is absolutely, 100% certain that he would be more valuable at SS is crazy.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
by bhoov on Sep 17, 2009 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have never stated I thought
Beckham would be a + anything . . . only you are throwing made up numbers around and scenarios. I am simply stating that whatever he is at 3B, he is likely to be only a little worse at SS. There is nothing to suggest anything different. He was a competent SS in college and in the minor leagues.
Reading this is like listening to my wife . . . hey, there is a mountain of evidence, but lets focus on what doesn’t matter.
The fact of the matter is you question my knowledge of positional adjustments when it is you that is making personal adjustments and not understanding it.
You make whatever argument you like . . . but Beckham’s future value, in today’s terms, is certainly greater at SS than 3B . . . that is a fact.
The reason I have no respect for these players, especially Thome is this…any player you can put a shift on is useless.
by jc2313 on Sep 17, 2009 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
your original post
“The fact of the matter is that by playing Beckham at 3B, you are ABSOLUTELY not maximizing his individual value to the team.”
my response: These are not absolutes.
Your reply: “yes he is ABSOLUTELY more valuable individually at SS.”
I was not at all condemning your opinion that he will be more valuable at SS. Everybody has opinions. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if your opinion winds up being correct. My comments were simply to point out that while Beckham may be more valuable at SS he is not absolutely certain to be more valuable. Anyone that thinks they can predict that sort of thing with “absolute” certainty is either delusional or larry (of course larry is actually correct 99% of the time so that’s a little different).
Maybe you were arguing a different point, but the mountain of evidence supports the point I made.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
by bhoov on Sep 17, 2009 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i enjoyed this
"And when I called him, and asked him to stand up for me, I know I shocked the shit out of him" - Michael Jordan, on choosing David Thompson as his Hall of Fame sponsor.
by e-gus on Sep 17, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i wasn't enjoying this. seemed like like listening to my wife.
but then he said i was right 99% of the time.
by larry on Sep 17, 2009 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is wrong with the option
“delusional AND larry”?
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
by winningugly on Sep 17, 2009 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The mountain of evidence does not support your point.
Just because you state such doesn’t change the fact it is not accurate. You are entitled to believe that actual results could lend that to happen . . . however, it is not likely and if you really did believe that then you still aren’t maximizing his value to this team because there are plenty of teams that would disagree with that and instead of looking to deal Alexei, you should look to deal Beckham.
Lets hope SSS doesn’t vanish into thin air after those last 6 words.
The reason I have no respect for these players, especially Thome is this…any player you can put a shift on is useless.
by jc2313 on Sep 17, 2009 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's not what Tango found.
Tango derived the position adjustments empirically, iirc.
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing.
by colintj on Sep 16, 2009 9:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I take a step back and look at it from your view
I really get your point jc. Im not trying to be snarky (even though I am working too much), but your last point "if a reasonable trade existed " is probably where I have my biggest issue and I think explains my disconnect. I have a hard time believing fair offers come the Sox way for Alexei. Now that said, perhaps I am way too influenced or believe other teams are influenced by the great Keith Law or Joe Sheehan (he’s just not good at baseball). I should know better but I do read the other team blogs and saw some of the ridiculous notions of what Alexei is worth in their minds.
I acknowledge within those false premises I have on blinders. Opening another hole at 3b frankly scares the hell out of me. So Im not arguing that your “wrong” on Beckham’s value as a SS. I also think Alexei’s power returns next year
and his improved patience pays off.
"Oh well back to work"
by Tdogg on Sep 16, 2009 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last AB last night:
Pitch one: Called strike 1.
Pitch two: Perfectly executed hit-and-run to the right side.
Previous 2 AB’s – 2 strike singles up the middle. The first where he appropriately dumps a slider into CF, the 2nd when he rips a fastball and almost takes the head off the pitcher with 2 outs to keep the inning going.
I almost teared up last night watching dees keed. Great night for him. Great approach. I truly do not want to give him up unless we are knocked out by a deal.
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
by winningugly on Sep 16, 2009 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alright . . . lets repost
this after tonights game where he goes 0-4, fails to get the bunt down and airmails Konerko at first! ;)
Would you please put some pants on? I feel weird having to ask you twice.
by jc2313 on Sep 16, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You'll have to watch for me.
I’m sure it’s not on WGN (thus, I can’t see it) and I’m wiped out from last night. Will be fast asleep.
But I get it. SSS. fangraphs exists. OPOS. That should cover it.
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
by winningugly on Sep 16, 2009 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i thought you had the em ell bee dot tee vee?
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
by thatshortkid on Sep 16, 2009 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
if teams were unduly influenced by those guys
raul ibanez would not have a three year deal, dayton moore would not have just signed a contract extension and oliver perez would not have signed for $36 million.
most teams are readily able to assign appropriate valuations to players. fangraphs. it exists. while few will claim ramirez is a superstar, i’d imagine the majority are able to understand what ramirez’ value is, particularly compared to his contract.
by larry on Sep 16, 2009 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
my understanding is
that having two SS on the team means leveraging one slightly less than otherwise simply because one will not be able to get all the plays he might at SS at 2b/3b. a defender that’s 10 runs above average is 2.5 runs above the average SS and 7.5 runs above the average 3B. there’s nothing lost other than additional balls fielded by playing him at 3B rather than SS. that’s not that significant, right?
2009 is just 2007 in 2008's clothing.
by colintj on Sep 16, 2009 9:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
there are players to be had on the cheap.
would the white sox feel confident about being able to keep troy glaus healthy? there was speculation from both an agent and GM today (according to heyman) that adrian beltre could only command a one year deal. obviously you can look at this from the OF perspective, as well, when evaluating whether to make a trade for a position, or sign a FA, or stand pat.
by larry on Sep 16, 2009 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Have them switch positions makes the most sense.
Too many unknowns and variables
by mick10 on Sep 16, 2009 2:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
if least = most then yes, i concur.
"And when I called him, and asked him to stand up for me, I know I shocked the shit out of him" - Michael Jordan, on choosing David Thompson as his Hall of Fame sponsor.
by e-gus on Sep 16, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no
why create more problems?
On that fly to right-center
I kinda expected JD to plow into Rios with an ATV.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on Aug 17, 2009 7:35 PM PDT reply recommended Unrec 3
by blackoutsox on Sep 16, 2009 3:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i guess my suggestion would be to keep alexei around another year at SS
because i think he’s gonna bounce back a little offensively and put up numbers closer to those of 2008. if that were to occur then i think the sox could get more for him. i doubt that he’ll put up a season in 2010 worse offensively than 2009.
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on Sep 16, 2009 10:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i don't think ramirez becomes more valuable.
unless his offensive gains go way, way above 2008, all another year means is that a team loses a year of very cost-controlled production.
by larry on Sep 17, 2009 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know I've asked this question (or variants of) about ten times...
but Ramirez will be arbitration eligible after 2011 even though he only signed a four-year contract, right?
by CWSKeith on Sep 17, 2009 11:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, under team control for 6 years at signing
On that fly to right-center
I kinda expected JD to plow into Rios with an ATV.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on Aug 17, 2009 7:35 PM PDT reply recommended Unrec 3
by blackoutsox on Sep 18, 2009 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would move Beckham to SS
Sign Beltre to play 3rd
Sign Figgins to play left field
Sign Holliday to play Right
Move ARam back to 2b
we would have a 200 mil payroll but who cares, it’s not my money.
"you should go back to your cowardly practice of offering no opinion of your own."
-picktoclick
by Where Triples Go to Die on Sep 18, 2009 11:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
At the risk of getting flamed...
I’m just curious why moving Becks to SS, signing a FA 3b (Beltre, Figgins), moving Alexei to left and Q! to right in the offseason would be absolutely terrible. I’ll hang up and listen to your answer
THANK YOU NATE SILVER, TECHNOLOGY IS THE TOPS
by Hazymania on Sep 21, 2009 12:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Alexei is an average offensive shortstop
Which would make him a terrible offensive corner outfielder.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on Sep 22, 2009 11:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That works for me.
Thanks
THANK YOU NATE SILVER, TECHNOLOGY IS THE TOPS
by Hazymania on Sep 23, 2009 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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