How Swisher Got His Groove Back
What the heck do the Yankees want with a guy who had just hit .219?
As somebody who asked the very same thing, I thought about the trade on Tuesday night as I watched Swisher wipe the remnants of a pie from his face, planted there in celebration of his walk-off homer to beat the Rays 3-2.
A year ago, Swisher was one of the unluckiest players in baseball.
His line drive rate in 2008 was a career-high 20.9 percent. Based on that figure, his expected batting average for balls in play was .329, which would have been a just reward for hitting the ball hard. But instead, even though he pounded the baseball, Swisher's BABIP was a criminally low .251, a number that can be attributed to lots of terrible luck.
Flash forward to Tuesday night. After swatting a pair of homers against the Rays, Swisher is hitting .254/.378/.506, defying even the most optimistic projections. His 26 homers are the second highest total of his career.
What's changed? Well, scenery, for one. Swisher is having a lot more fun contributing to a winning team in New York than he did languishing for a winning team in Chicago. That's to be expected.
But the real answer lies in Swisher's luck.
(Goes on to explain BABIP, Line Drive %, wOBP, and other unexpected stats by a newspaper reporter. Cowley could learn from this.)
over 2 years ago
Chiburb
73 comments
0 recs |
Email
PrintComments
not that I want Swisher to fail
but he’s a grinning, mugging reminder of how we turned DLS, Gio, and Ryan Sweeney into garbage and a tilde.
how much for the Tyler Flowers rookie card?
"defying even the most optimistic projections"
Not sure about that. Our boy larry figured he was due for a large bounce-back.
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
The story credits FanGraphs for predicting a turnaround too.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand."
— Leo Durocher
fangraphs = larry,
and they both exist.
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
can you out some of these dumbfucks? i thought it was widely known in SSSland that Swish's BABIP was due for a rebound, to some degree...
Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa... Time out Greenbay. Tell that fucking bullshit to the tourists
by onlysoxfaninboston on Sep 9, 2009 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions
i just swish's babip would stay low, cause i hate that fucker
Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa... Time out Greenbay. Tell that fucking bullshit to the tourists
by onlysoxfaninboston on Sep 9, 2009 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions
as much as i hate kong/dye/thome/aj clubhouse for rejecting him too
Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa... Time out Greenbay. Tell that fucking bullshit to the tourists
by onlysoxfaninboston on Sep 9, 2009 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Too much hate, OSFIB.
Corrosive.
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
Still hating.
Eats up your insides. If you have any.
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
that's what i'm saying yo
but kdub wouldn’t have done it if the players weren’t so pissed off at swish..i think..
Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa... Time out Greenbay. Tell that fucking bullshit to the tourists
by onlysoxfaninboston on Sep 9, 2009 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Swish was worthless by year-end.
Worthless. But we can argue all day long about this (same with Javy, who is doing a damn site better than Swisher, so it could be argued left more of an immediate hole, T-Flow notwithstanding). Yes, it was a horse$h!t trade.
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
I don't mean from a physical standpoint.
And we’ve had this discussion, and you know where I stand. And if you forgot, do a search.
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
You got your props.
All year long. But his CHEMISTRY WAR is -20. So there. And look where we are at year’s end. SO much better off. And look how our trade bounty is performing!
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
Why is it we've had so many -20 chemistry players on Ozzie teams?
Carlos Lee, O-cab, Swisher, Frank Thomas, Vasquez. We’ve run off some great talent in the past few years because of clubhouse issues. O-cab and Swisher had reputations as great clubhouse leaders before they played here. Haven’t heard of any problems on other teams with Lee or Vasquez either.
It is my understanding that Ozzie's negative attitude not helping
It has also come to my attention that His nagging and rants towards individual players does nothing expect anger that player and his friends on
by The Actual El Guapo on Sep 9, 2009 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Your sources are good.
Today was a nice day to be out for a walk, look through the window of a restaurant at 2:30, and discover that the Sox started at noon.
by homesickalien on Sep 9, 2009 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions
I wonder
how Ozzie’s alienating certain players affects the Sox getting other players in free agency. O-Cab is still tight with Figgy por ejemplo.
And gave props to Scioscia.
Fucker.
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
Right, like the team wouldn't be singing his praises
If he didn’t have such a terrible season.
Swisher didn’t perform, Kenny was able to use “clubhouse reasons” as some kind of excuse, and lots of fans bought it.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Sep 9, 2009 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Nick Swisher vs Alex Rios........
I guess Rios’ .400 OPS fits right in the clubhouse.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Sep 9, 2009 2:37 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Chemistry!
On that fly to right-center
I kinda expected JD to plow into Rios with an ATV.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on Aug 17, 2009 7:35 PM PDT reply recommended Unrec 3
LOL!
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
White Sox news, Minor Leagues updates and more
fuck nick swisher.
seriously.
hey rios, you need to cinch it up, hunker down, bow your neck, bristle up, and be any kind of hitter. you're making me look like an idiot.
it's so much more frustrating when you knew it was a bad idea as it happened.
this was amongst kenny’s worst moves and that isn’t just 20/20 hindsight.
Cashing checks and having sex.
This shouldn't come as a surprise.
Heck, I was disappointed to see him traded. He was up and coming in Oakland and just hit a funk here. The problem was he was a little girl about it and that’s why he got the boot.
"wordy and overly verbose."
by larry on Jul 3, 2009 3:43 PM CDT
by Black Sox Baseball on Sep 10, 2009 4:02 PM CDT reply actions
its an interesting question
looking back months later, did the white sox get enough for swisher/vazquez
both had lousy 08 seasons and returned to bounce back 09 seasons.
obviously both those moves were money motivated too…basically that money went to the rios/peavy contracts.
plus however progress and production comes from flowers, lillibridge, matquez, betemit, etc
No retrospect needed. At the moment of trade, months later, and every second in between - no, the Sox did not get enough. Well established that it was an awful trade, motivated by Swisher's antics and simultaneous underperforming,
which just made him look like a giant douche.
You’ll be hard-pressed to find a single person on this board that approved of KW’s move initially, let alone now, having seen the (expected) season Swisher’s had.
Today was a nice day to be out for a walk, look through the window of a restaurant at 2:30, and discover that the Sox started at noon.
by homesickalien on Sep 11, 2009 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions
"Better living through chemistry".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Living_Through_Chemistry
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand."
— Leo Durocher
on the flipside, KW stole quentin from the dbacks
despite injuries quentin/dye pushed swisher out of a corner OF spot
trading a top prospect for a player tends to not be stealing.
quentin should decide to be valuable again before anyone can describe it as theft again.
Swisher's "luck"
One thing that annoyed me about every sabermetric recap of Swisher’s 2008 season — Swisher was merely unlucky.
He was genuinely unlucky in the first half. He was a Rios-style broken man in the second half.
If Swisher’s next six months looked like his previous three, his contract would no longer be tradeable, considering the way the FA market tanked. Better to deal a guy a year too early than a year too late, etc. etc.
And if Rios rebounds, the Sox end up using Swisher’s salary to get a player equally or more useful to them. So the Sox might not end up any worse for the wear despite KW making a poor move outside factors pressured him into making.
That’s the glass half full perspective, anyway. It’ll be a broken glass if Rios can’t right the ship.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
dumping an obviously talented and previously highly productive player based upon a second half slump is also rather silly.
there isn’t a long list of position players who go from highly productive to shit for the rest of their careers at age 27.
No arguing that.
It was definitely the incompatibility/douchiness that drove it, more than anything. Just saying that 1) there’s a way to pretend that it can be justified, and 2) Williams may have been able to mask the stink with the Rios acquisition. If the budget wouldn’t allow both players on the roster at the same time, it’s effectively trading one for the other in terms of a roster spot. KW doesn’t earn style points for it, but there’s no staggering net loss like before.
Unless, of course, Rios is the player who joins the crap list at age 27, and not Swisher. Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on Sep 12, 2009 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions
linking the rios acquisition to the swisher trade seems pretty tenuous to me.
particularly considering the white sox are going to need to sign an OF either way.
Don't Need Him!!!
Do the White Sox really need another player hitting under .265???? I just would like to see 3 of our players hitting .300…It just seems that if you can hit between .245 aand .270 but hit 20 homers you are an All-Star in Kenny Williams’ eyes. However, I feel that the overall team direction is switching. Gordon Beckham is looking to be a solid hitter that can drive in runs especially in clutch situations, Chris Getz and Alexei Ramirez look to be good accents at the bottom of the order. I believe a Key acquisition would be Chone Figgins. I wouldn’t mind seeing Figgins or Pods lead off, but the other needs to be at the nine or 8 spot to roll over the order. I feel the Sox need to find a way to utilize both Figgins and Pods if need be…
by EArcella19 on Sep 14, 2009 11:51 AM CDT reply actions
Ummmm
I think you’re on the wrong website. Just some basic tenets to start you off: Batting average doesn’t correlate well with runs scored. Slugging is better than BA. OBP is better than that. Combining slugging and OBP is even better. If you can hit .250 with a .400 OBP then you very well might be an All-Star (especially if you have some semblance of power). If you hit .250 with a .290 OBP (See KC royals betancourt and Olivo) then you really shouldn’t be playing MLB baseball. .250 or .265 BA or have very little meaning without OBP (and slugging).
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
i thought slugging was slightly more highly correlated with runs scored than OBP - have you seen this research updated?
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ops-for-the-masses/
i realize that is certainly slight but i’ve wondered about that issue since i saw this.
and this article certainly gives a nice visual on how poor BA is compared with other stats.
Bottom line: "OPS works because it happens to be a kind of linear approximation of more complex run estimation formulas."
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand."
— Leo Durocher
Good stuff
Thanks. I wonder if the difference between a .910 and .913 correlation coefficient is statistically significant. That is if you took a period other than 2000-2004 (say 1996-2000 or 2004-2008) they might flip-flop or be the same. In any event, at the very least OBP is no more correlated to runs scored than Slugging. So I was incorrect there. thanks for correcting me. I think the other thing that made me think that was the idea that “a point of OBP is worth about 1.8 times a point of Slugging” as it relates to OPS. But of course that is a different concept than which is most correlated with runs.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
After reading your post
I had to clear my head. So I went on the “Who’s your favorite vendor at The Cell?” FP.
Ahhhh. Like a mental enema.
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
Hmmm
Well that would mean I filled your head up with………
Glad to be of service!
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
Just kidding.
Just pointing out the depth of thought vs. no thought. You have thought.
We’re a pack of a-holes. And my tradition of contributing absolutely nothing to this site... continues.
"Is this heaven"? "No, It's the right rail".
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand."
— Leo Durocher
????
So you think Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Nick Swisher are all-stars??? I think not and if I managed a team I would pray none of them were on my team…and if you are a .250 hitter with a .400 OBP you are more than likely a Jim Thome/Paul Konerko/Nick Swisher prototype and will just clog the bases and not score runs. The only thing that saves Konerko is that he actually has a decent glove at first. Swisher is successful this year because he is a product of his team. If ARod, Jeter, Texeria, Damon are in your lineup then you can get away with having a Nick Swisher type ballplayer. The reason I have no respect for these players, especially Thome is this…any player you can put a shift on is useless. It is not that he physically can not hit to left field…it is he chose not to, yea what a “clubhouse guy”. If Thome was really a “good teammate” he would drive the ball to all fields and not swing for the fence every time and give me 116 strikeouts this season. AJ and Beckham can hit to all fields and they are our best hitters. Look at our division…Morneau and Cabrera are better then PK by a loooong shot. When players are selfish and don’t do the small things like drive an outside pitch the opposite way then that is why you hit .250 like our sox do…and please do not blame Greg Walker…I just wish Thome or Konerko were juicing, at least then you know they were actually trying to improve themselves
by EArcella19 on Sep 15, 2009 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
Hey, he played college ball
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on Sep 15, 2009 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Hysterical
you are a funny guy, rec’d. I needed a good laugh during a shitty work week.
Would you please put some pants on? I feel weird having to ask you twice.
You should make his comment your new sig.
:)
Today was a nice day to be out for a walk, look through the window of a restaurant at 2:30, and discover that the Sox started at noon.
by homesickalien on Sep 15, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions
It was hard choosing just one of his nuggets of wisdom
but for the sake of humanity, I had to make that difficult choice.
The reason I have no respect for these players, especially Thome is this…any player you can put a shift on is useless.
Ah. Very nice selection though....a real highlight.
"take a left at Daryl Boston, stop when you hit the 100 years war." -egus
by homesickalien on Sep 17, 2009 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions
i don't see how you can disagree with the logic.
they put a shift on barry bonds. and that guy was useless.
Do you teach at KenWo's school?
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Sep 15, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Scouting locations for your next attack?
:)
Today was a nice day to be out for a walk, look through the window of a restaurant at 2:30, and discover that the Sox started at noon.
by homesickalien on Sep 15, 2009 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions
You wish I was that benevolent.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Sep 16, 2009 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions
You seem like a nice guy (person)
I’ll just take it that you haven’t been enlightened. Stay awhile, read a little and learn.
"Oh well back to work"
that's too much. this is a setup. i'm calling shenanigans.
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on Sep 16, 2009 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions
i hate you
But if you self-loathing- sad-bastard-fuckhammers see that as "appropriate", well, then… I suggest you go fuck yourself while nick swisher looks on, completely unfucked. - SkanchoDanza
excellent! young padawan
"you should go back to your cowardly practice of offering no opinion of your own."
-picktoclick
by Where Triples Go to Die on Sep 19, 2009 12:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Photo: Padres fan regrets letting mother capture moment with Trevor Hoffman
- Marlins agree to unretire No. 5 for Logan Morrison, who will honor his father’s favorite player
- Weatherman Derek Holland does Dallas TV
- Ask Alex: Will Julio Teheran or Matt Moore win rookie of the year?
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
