Baseball America's White Sox 2011 Projected Lineup (From 2008)
Prior to the 2008 season, Baseball America projected what the 2011 White Sox would look like. This is what they came up with:
| Catcher | A.J. Pierzynski |
| First Base | Paul Konerko |
| Second Base | Chris Getz |
| Third Base | Joe Crede |
| Shortstop | Orlando Cabrera |
| Left Field | Josh Fields |
| Center Field | Nick Swisher |
| Right Field | Carlos Quentin |
| Designated Hitter | Jermaine Dye |
| No. 1 Starter | Mark Buehrle |
| No. 2 Starter | Javier Vazquez |
| No. 3 Starter | Aaron Poreda |
| No. 4 Starter | John Danks |
| No. 5 Starter | Lance Broadway |
| Closer | Bobby Jenks |
In case it wasn't obvious, they were limited to players in the organization at the time. Which is really not a good thing when that organization is the White Sox. By my count, it currently looks like they've got one position player correct (Quentin), though one can debate the position, and there's varying degrees of likelihood of them being correct about Konerko and Pierzynski. They also got two starters correct in Buehrle and Danks (I'll leave to others the debate over ranking of starters). 3 out of 15 isn't a very good result.
Of course, Baseball America probably shouldn't be penalized too much for player movements (particularly given the White Sox' propensity to swap players). After all, the point of these projections shouldn't necessarily be this player will be starting for this particular team in four seasons' time but this player will be capable of starting for a major league baseball team, and at this position, in four seasons' time.
So, on that basis, how did Baseball America do? Well, two players (Crede and Dye) are currently out of baseball. Another two (Getz and Fields) are with the Royals but probably are not starter material at any position, though I guess you never know with the Royals. Two more (Poreda and Broadway) are in the minors and are rather unlikely to be pitching, let alone starting, in the majors anytime soon. Poreda completely lost the plot after going to the Padres - he's averaged over 10 walks per 9 innings, mostly in the minors, since the trade - and Broadway, who was never much to begin with, had a WHIP approaching 2 and an ERA approaching 8 for the Blue Jays' AAA team last season.
Four (Cabrera, Vazquez, Konerko and Pierzynski) are free agents and, outside of Cabrera, whose days as a starter may have passed, are all very likely to be signed by someone to start at the positions assigned to them here. One more (Jenks) is soon to be joining those players as a free agent but is likely going to be closing somewhere. And the last one (Swisher) isn't going to be playing center for anyone but is a starter for the Yankees.
So, 8 out of 15, or 9 out of 15 if we give them credit for Swisher. Others have done the same analysis for their team (Twins, Mets, Rays, Braves) and Baseball America had varying degrees of success, whiffing on the Mets but doing very well on the Twins. Also, Jon "I haven't gotten out of A ball" Gilmore, then of the Braves, was projected to be a starting third baseman. I guess the White Sox might be having an open competition there in spring training, so good luck, Jon.
102 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
great find larry
"I never say one bad thing about those stupid fucking Cubs fans. Not a single word about those mother-shitting pieces of fuck"
by onlysoxfaninbasel on Nov 26, 2010 7:27 AM CST reply actions
one item i neglected to clarify in the piece
is that alexei probably wasn’t eligible. while it was announced that the white sox had signed him i think right before christmas 2007, it wasn’t official until late january, which was after this article was published. he probably would have replaced someone on the list, most likely OC.
for colin
As expected, Martinez will primarily be DH, not catcher. He’ll spell Alex Avila 2-3 times a week, according to press release.
i think they'll come out okay this year
as long as he stays healthy and he plays enough games at catcher. i think that’ll be enough.
Fireworks: Bang?
dombrowski estimated he'd be getting 60 games at C.
he might get a bit of an offensive bump by being a DH, as is usually the case when a catcher doesn’t catch so much, but it ain’t going to be anywhere close to bridging the positional value chasm. i thank the tigers for this.
Investing money in a DH, what idiots.
Ozzie is laughing at them from his boat today. He’ll be shouting though when Martinez goes deep on a game winner and KotsayD’H is still practicing his double-play swing in the dug out.
"'This is an issue Ozzie Guillen obviously feels very passionately about. Ozzie certainly has his own experiences as a player, coach and manager, and is entitled to his own opinions, but the Chicago White Sox believe his views are incorrect.'' - (What should be the) White Sox official statement (on the DH issue and coveting speed over OPS)
investing in a DH
and spending that kind of money for his production is two very different things.
Does UZR take into consideration the JumpThrow?
Aren't you the one who always argues it isn't our money so the amount shouldn't be our concern.
I completely agree Illitch overpaid on this one, but he still has plenty of pizza money to throw around and he has a nice DH who can spell his catcher now and then to boot. Besides, overpaying might be what it takes to get some players to go to Detroit. Remeber Damon’s wife last year?
"'This is an issue Ozzie Guillen obviously feels very passionately about. Ozzie certainly has his own experiences as a player, coach and manager, and is entitled to his own opinions, but the Chicago White Sox believe his views are incorrect.'' - (What should be the) White Sox official statement (on the DH issue and coveting speed over OPS)
huh
when have i ever argued that budgets dont matter? The point is you can do better for dh at that price. Pretty simple. Pot shots at Ozzie dont change that.
Does UZR take into consideration the JumpThrow?
what other FA hitters do you want over Martinez though?
Crawford and Dunn and that’s about it as far as offensive production.
the only thing that is relevant is SSS.
jayson werth would probably argue with you.
if you’d expand to position player, and not just worry about hitting, i imagine there are plenty who’d also want beltre. i’ve seen quite a few who ranked konerko above vmart in free agent rankings, too.
and if we get into value for money, the potentials expand further.
i don’t think the tigers are crazy for doing this. but they’ve paid a high price for it. perhaps they’re counting on him being able to catch longer by reducing his workload (as in, he’ll be able to catch 60 games each season over the course of the contract, as opposed to what some have projected for him, like 100 games, then 75 games, then 50 games, then no games). i’d be far more sanguine if they could play him a majority of the time at 1B, instead of DH.
Martinez is a terrible defensive catcher but a good hitter.
Seems like dh is a pretty good spot for him. Cabrerra already plays 1b because he wasn’t a good 3rd baseman. Leyland, unlike Ozzie understands the concept of moving players around to maximize their talent. Not very respectful but effective.
If is is one handed shitting. by winningugly
any good hitter might be a fit for dh
the problem is the price tag. Can justify it for catcher. Not for Dh. Why is that difficult to understand
Does UZR take into consideration the JumpThrow?
i am not a big martinez fan. im very happy they didn't sign him.
his 2008 was absolute garbage.
Kenwo4life=ratings
he was hurt in 08
but regardless. He has 1 year over a .900 ops. One.
Does UZR take into consideration the JumpThrow?
He has none
But he’s been remarkably consistent in the mid-.800s outside 08. For a catcher, that’s very good. For a DH/Catcher, still pretty good. Consistency is very highly valued and he’s a great teammate. Just the little things.
by Daniel Berlyn on Nov 26, 2010 6:42 PM CST up reply actions
Like AJ. Those intangibles, eh.
He’s expensive. Glad we are not having to have this discussion for real (as in, I’m glad we did not sign him).
I guess one man's pain in the ass is another’s perfect fit.
by mick10 on Sep 1, 2010 2:39 PM EDT
And consistent, too.
Take your whosh like a man, dammit.
by RWShow on Oct 28, 2010 10:33 PM EDT
by Shoeless In SC on Nov 26, 2010 8:30 PM CST up reply actions
idiots
http://www.philliesnation.com/archives/2010/11/trade-option-matt-thornton/
Kenwo4life=ratings
Well, yeah.
They are Phillies fans.
I guess one man's pain in the ass is another’s perfect fit.
by mick10 on Sep 1, 2010 2:39 PM EDT
by winningugly on Nov 26, 2010 10:10 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
It’s taken years of practice to be such an asshole.
by Chiburb on Jun 1, 2010 10:35 AM PDT
this keeps bugging me, so here goes.
i know that most or all of you guys don’t believe in phandom, so i try to let things slide, but this here is a series of posts that really bother me. when you say things like “idiots = phillies fans” and mock them for daring to share their beliefs in public and even implying that they are fools for having those beliefs in the first place, it hurts.
i like you guys and i like posting here. i’m not asking you to completely stop saying things that could be considered “toungue-in-cheek”, but can you please try to keep it tame? even if you think it’s funny, not everyone feels the same way.
I love seasons too. That's why I live in a place that skips the shitty ones.
by thatshortkid on Nov 27, 2010 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Every fanbase has their jagoffs... but Philly fans just appear to have so many, and more that make headlines
Fans should never be making headlines… but Philadelphia fans often do. Something’s not right there.
Take your whosh like a man, dammit.
by RWShow on Oct 28, 2010 10:33 PM EDT
by Shoeless In SC on Nov 27, 2010 11:55 AM CST up reply actions
No, I got it.
Take your whosh like a man, dammit.
by RWShow on Oct 28, 2010 10:33 PM EDT
by Shoeless In SC on Nov 27, 2010 12:13 PM CST up reply actions
Sounds good
Quentin and Thornton for Dom Brown sounds fair right?
CAGO WHY SOGS CAGO WHY SOGSSSS
The third poster, George, sums it up pretty well for them
Thornton will not be moving for prospects. They are way low on askign price in any trade.
"'This is an issue Ozzie Guillen obviously feels very passionately about. Ozzie certainly has his own experiences as a player, coach and manager, and is entitled to his own opinions, but the Chicago White Sox believe his views are incorrect.'' - (What should be the) White Sox official statement (on the DH issue and coveting speed over OPS)
Do you think anything is ever going to happen with the practice of bidding for negotiating rights?
Something rolled into the next player agreement, or even before then?
"I was the nicest Hitler ever, pulling out chairs for old women and what not." -Rhubarb
by South Side Expat on Nov 26, 2010 10:55 AM CST up reply actions
also, if they don't sign him they don't pay the posting fee.
regardless, teh Twin are spending money. It’s a bad thing.
Yeah, I know about how the posting fee works and that the Japanese teams not being part of the CBA.
I just wonder if anyone thinks that the practice will somehow change or evolve anytime soon. Such as coffeepac suggests, if one team ends up doing it as a blocking move, etc.
"I was the nicest Hitler ever, pulling out chairs for old women and what not." -Rhubarb
by South Side Expat on Nov 26, 2010 9:55 PM CST up reply actions
BTF had some discussion about this on their posting thread.
I dunno what the answer is, I don’t know anything about labor relations in Japan but the Japanese players can’t be happy with the posting system.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/twins_win_bidding_for_nishioka/
I’m guessing the Japanese players have a weak union compared to their US counter-parts. They are getting screwed here.
the players have an interest in that, too.
if quality of play drops too much, which would be the logical result of more players going to america, there ain’t going to be much of a japanese league. meaning less pay / no pay for the 95+% of players who aren’t good enough to play major league baseball.
There might be something, but it won't be in the CBA
If it turns out that the A’s won the bid for Iwakuma was as a block and not as a good faith bid, we might see the posting process open up some.
Probably just make it so you walk down the list of bidders and give each team a 14-30 day exclusive negotiating window, or something like that.
They were hard enough to compete with without having any revenue
Damn Target Field
"'This is an issue Ozzie Guillen obviously feels very passionately about. Ozzie certainly has his own experiences as a player, coach and manager, and is entitled to his own opinions, but the Chicago White Sox believe his views are incorrect.'' - (What should be the) White Sox official statement (on the DH issue and coveting speed over OPS)
if you believe the twins aren't stupid enough to risk offering arbitration to players without being able to back it up
their payroll looks like it could be at least $125M.
This is certainly not good news for us.
Hopefully the new found wealth goes to their heads and they start making splashy, unsound investments. I’m not betting on that though.
"'This is an issue Ozzie Guillen obviously feels very passionately about. Ozzie certainly has his own experiences as a player, coach and manager, and is entitled to his own opinions, but the Chicago White Sox believe his views are incorrect.'' - (What should be the) White Sox official statement (on the DH issue and coveting speed over OPS)
Like giving out a 25MM a year deal
to an injury prone catcher? There’s no way that deal bites them in the ass in 3-4 years.
It might, but a lot of that money was also investing to keep fans in the seats.
Mauer walks on the waters of Lake Superior for Twins fans don’t you know. Losing him would have cost a lot more than his bat.
"'This is an issue Ozzie Guillen obviously feels very passionately about. Ozzie certainly has his own experiences as a player, coach and manager, and is entitled to his own opinions, but the Chicago White Sox believe his views are incorrect.'' - (What should be the) White Sox official statement (on the DH issue and coveting speed over OPS)
who? what?
Derek Jeter?
winning puts fans in the seats. everything else is secondary. when you lose sight of that point you start signing Aubrey Huff for 11MM a year or something similar.
joe mauer is a great baseball player currently.
derek jeter isn’t. perhaps, as you said, in 4th or 5th year of the contract things will not look so good. but punting mauer would’ve sent the message to fans, true or not, that the twins weren’t all that serious about winning.
jeter had a down year offensively but he did win the gold glove.
If is is one handed shitting. by winningugly
he always does, he such a great fielder
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Nov 27, 2010 8:54 AM CST up reply actions
Btw, larry, that photo caption is sig-worthy.
Intoxicated with the wine of cloaking powers and the gin of banning authority since 2005.
Mick's 2014 projected lineup
C Phegley
1b Viciedo
2b Beckham
3b Morel
ss Escobar
lf Thompson
cf Mitchell
rf Rios
dh Kotsay
no. 1 Danks
no. 2 Sale
no. 3 Floyd
no. 4 Petricka
no. 5 Rienzo
closer Santos
If is is one handed shitting. by winningugly
by mick10 on Nov 26, 2010 6:35 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
So when you do kill yourself?
And I am speaking of the general “you”.
I guess one man's pain in the ass is another’s perfect fit.
by mick10 on Sep 1, 2010 2:39 PM EDT
AAA?
I guess one man's pain in the ass is another’s perfect fit.
by mick10 on Sep 1, 2010 2:39 PM EDT
Bacon
my tells me in US you only do streaky from the belly and don’t do side? Back is best cut and most tasty to make a bacon sandwich.
agree. back cut (canadian) is available but not in demand here.
Back cut is also healthier.
If is is one handed shitting. by winningugly
back looks like this

if you don’t get this type of bacon you are missing out! but you seem to get it from Canada Mick.
lol
That looks amazing.
Take your whosh like a man, dammit.
by RWShow on Oct 28, 2010 10:33 PM EDT
by Shoeless In SC on Nov 26, 2010 8:32 PM CST up reply actions
If you want healthy, then go eat turkey bacon.
Canadian bacon has it’s place on eggs benedict but that’s it.
"I was the nicest Hitler ever, pulling out chairs for old women and what not." -Rhubarb
by South Side Expat on Nov 26, 2010 7:36 PM CST up reply actions
better than cottage bacon?
When I was a kid, I didn't want to be a doctor or a fireman. I wanted to be Super Mario. It's the most literal pipe dream I've ever had.
its not all pork belly
Although most of it is fatty. The fat does two things when youi fry it: tastes great and crisps the meat. You can get other cuts of the pig as bacon but you gotta hunt for it.
by coffeepac on Nov 26, 2010 7:16 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Back to yesterday's turkey discussion
have you had it deep fried? Not at all greasy, but it keeps the juices in. Even the ‘bad’ ones we’ve had have still been decent enough. We’ve done it for the past four or five years, and don’t plan on going back to the oven.
don't have a pan big enough to deep fry a turkey
I seen it done on the telly in the US – but you do it in the garage or something like that – we don;t really have the room. Turkey is roasted in oven usually,
how to fry a turkey
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5o9jW4yNdYI&NR=1
If is is one handed shitting. by winningugly
Amen, brotha. Once you go fried, you don't go back.
Take your whosh like a man, dammit.
by RWShow on Oct 28, 2010 10:33 PM EDT
by Shoeless In SC on Nov 26, 2010 8:33 PM CST up reply actions
Remember this thread? Let's take a stroll down memory lane, shall we...
::: http://www.southsidesox.com/2008/2/9/184234/5532 :::
What I said at the time:
Not too bright…
1. Egbert – Has shown the greatest amount of success in the minors, even though we’ve only seen him up to AA. However, his stats in AA and the low minors were absolutely dominant. He’s a high strikeout, low walk guy. (3-4:1). To me, I think he has the highest ceiling of all these guys.
2. Broadway – I may catch some flack here, but Broadway has shown some decent success in AAA and for a short while, the majors. He’s not a high K guy, and he does have an unpretty K to walk ratio, but he does a great job at limiting the home run ball. That’s really key for MLB success with the White Sox.
3. Contreras – The question was posed “over the rest of their career” … well Contreras doesn’t really have a high ceiling anymore because of his age, but I think whether he starts or comes out of the pen, he can be very effective. I see last year as something of a blip, and his real potential as a 4.5ish ERA, 1.3 WHIP. If he comes out of the bullpen I see him doing even better.
4. Danks – Danks at least pitched a whole season in the bigs so I’m tempted to say he has the most potential, but he really struggled sometimes, especially giving up home runs. He gives up way too many to be pitching in the Cell. He could be a #2 or #3 right now if he pitched in Petco… but alas… he doesn’t. I do like his stuff… I just think he needs to work on his control. I see him as a future #4, and possibly, maybe, the Sox #3 someday. He really needs to work on getting the ball down in the zone.
5. Floyd – is kind of a mystery. He obviously had the potential, but that seems like so long ago. He’s hardly got good stuff (645K in 813 IP) but like I’ve been harping about… he does a decent job of limiting the home run ball. He doesn’t walk that many guys, but it doesn’t exactly look promising either. I see him as a future #4 as well, which is why I’m kind of tied with him and Danks. Danks has the better stuff and slightly better control.
Obviously, Broadway was all smoke and mirrors.
Take your whosh like a man, dammit.
by RWShow on Oct 28, 2010 10:33 PM EDT
Quote fail. Damn,
Take your whosh like a man, dammit.
by RWShow on Oct 28, 2010 10:33 PM EDT
by Shoeless In SC on Nov 26, 2010 8:44 PM CST up reply actions
Let's try that again.
::: http://www.southsidesox.com/2008/2/9/184234/5532 :::
1. Egbert – Has shown the greatest amount of success in the minors, even though we’ve only seen him up to AA. However, his stats in AA and the low minors were absolutely dominant. He’s a high strikeout, low walk guy. (3-4:1). To me, I think he has the highest ceiling of all these guys.
2. Broadway – I may catch some flack here, but Broadway has shown some decent success in AAA and for a short while, the majors. He’s not a high K guy, and he does have an unpretty K to walk ratio, but he does a great job at limiting the home run ball. That’s really key for MLB success with the White Sox.
3. Contreras – The question was posed "over the rest of their career" … well Contreras doesn’t really have a high ceiling anymore because of his age, but I think whether he starts or comes out of the pen, he can be very effective. I see last year as something of a blip, and his real potential as a 4.5ish ERA, 1.3 WHIP. If he comes out of the bullpen I see him doing even better.
4. Danks – Danks at least pitched a whole season in the bigs so I’m tempted to say he has the most potential, but he really struggled sometimes, especially giving up home runs. He gives up way too many to be pitching in the Cell. He could be a #2 or #3 right now if he pitched in Petco… but alas… he doesn’t. I do like his stuff… I just think he needs to work on his control. I see him as a future #4, and possibly, maybe, the Sox #3 someday. He really needs to work on getting the ball down in the zone.
5. Floyd – is kind of a mystery. He obviously had the potential, but that seems like so long ago. He’s hardly got good stuff (645K in 813 IP) but like I’ve been harping about… he does a decent job of limiting the home run ball. He doesn’t walk that many guys, but it doesn’t exactly look promising either. I see him as a future #4 as well, which is why I’m kind of tied with him and Danks. Danks has the better stuff and slightly better control.
Much better looking quote box.
But yes, I think I was probably alone in my assessment of Broadway. I haven’t trusted low K/IP guys since. A lot of us liked Egbert then.
Take your whosh like a man, dammit.
by RWShow on Oct 28, 2010 10:33 PM EDT
by Shoeless In SC on Nov 26, 2010 8:48 PM CST up reply actions
wow that is pretty bad dude.
i woulda said:
1. Contreras
2. Floyd
3. Danks
4. Broadway
5. Egbert
Kenwo4life=ratings
Hindsight is 20/20 Ken.
Take your whosh like a man, dammit.
by RWShow on Oct 28, 2010 10:33 PM EDT
by Shoeless In SC on Nov 26, 2010 9:43 PM CST up reply actions
yeah my only saving grace wrt Egbert was my propensity for self-doubt
i don’t hate what i said, but i definitely learned from the Egbert crash and burn.
Fireworks: Bang?
I think we all did. Broadway taught me to take scouting reports into consideration, and not simply look at numbers
Take your whosh like a man, dammit.
by RWShow on Oct 28, 2010 10:33 PM EDT
by Shoeless In SC on Nov 27, 2010 8:35 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I try to read what the scouts say regarding prospects
when it’s available. Most often I have to rely on the numbers. However most everything written about Broadway in the past wasn’t favorable of him being more than a #5. I ignored all of that and just looked at the numbers.
Take your whosh like a man, dammit.
by RWShow on Oct 28, 2010 10:33 PM EDT
by Shoeless In SC on Nov 27, 2010 11:57 AM CST up reply actions
*Ahem*
FNS
"I was the nicest Hitler ever, pulling out chairs for old women and what not." -Rhubarb
by South Side Expat on Nov 26, 2010 11:07 PM CST reply actions
Maybe a whoosh, but a decent read on Floyd's value
http://www.examiner.com/chicago-white-sox-in-chicago/what-would-be-a-fair-return-for-gavin-floyd
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
No its cool to link this
and JJ makes an excellent point. Floyd does have the most value but folks might not realize it. Probably best just to hold on to him and have a great season to fuck with Kenwo.
Does UZR take into consideration the JumpThrow?
hey i was a floyd backer before anyone
i just have not seen the talent as consistently as i want to…. so if he’s the biggest trade piece… send him out.
Kenwo4life=ratings
that is not true at all
going into last year i proclaimed him the ace of the staff
Kenwo4life=ratings
boobs or it didn't happen
To say goodbye to all our company? - Chiburb on Nov 23, 2010 3:13 PM CST
fial. to mick - Chiburb on Nov 23, 2010 3:13 PM CST
jeez. - Chiburb on Nov 23, 2010 3:14 PM CST
fuck - Chiburb on Nov 23, 2010 3:14 PM CST
i think it would be daft to trade floyd
the one thing we don’t have the inside on is his injury risk – but he’s been pretty durable so far
by hoodlight on Nov 27, 2010 11:58 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
It's never a bad idea to trade a player... only a bad idea to trade a player and not get what he's worth in return
Take your whosh like a man, dammit.
by RWShow on Oct 28, 2010 10:33 PM EDT
by Shoeless In SC on Nov 27, 2010 11:59 AM CST up reply actions
I'm making the assumption
that other gms wont offer what he’s worth – so only reason they would undersell him if they think he has big future health problems
by hoodlight on Nov 27, 2010 12:11 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
fk the twins
that is all
Czheck Productions
Under The Basement Radio
I've never done anything good for the world, and I'm not about to start now-DF

by 
























