FanPost

Has Talent Gap Closed?



There is no doubt that Kenny Williams has had a flashier, more headline driven offseason than Twins GM Bill Smith. The question is whether Kenny’s moves have been enough to close the talent gap and 6 game win differential between the White Sox and Twins in 2011. As it stands now, I believe they have.

With the signing of Adam Dunn, Kenny has fixed the team’s biggest problem from 2010. Given his history and the dimensions of U.S. Cellular Field, there is no reason not to expect at least 35 home runs, 75 walks, a .380 OBP and 175 K’s. Those numbers might in fact be low, given his career averages of 40 HR, 111 BB and 185 K’s per 162 games. Changing leagues won’t affect his production - it’s not as though NL pitchers are doing anything radically different than AL pitchers and every team has a video department. A 2010 3.9 WAR should improve a tic, since Dunn is no longer hampered by having to play the field (but even a 3.9 WAR was better than any White Sox position player not named Paul Konerko).

Speaking of Paul Konerko… His signing was tabbed a high priority by Kenny Williams, Ozzie Guillen and virtually anyone else connected with the organization. Yes, his 2010 was an aberration. 35 year olds don’t start hitting like they are 28 anymore. His K% jumped by almost 4% from ’09-’10 (a troubling sign) while his BABIP was .326 for a career .285 BABIP player. Various explanations range from a fully healed hand to Konerko just loosening up [Quentin, are you paying attention?], but it’s a safe bet that Paulie returns to a .280ish hitter with +/-30 home run potential – average first base production. Though he is a bad fielder (Donkey was a better fielder than Kong last year), he isn’t on this list just for his numbers.

To a man, everyone in the club house respects Konerko. He is the yin to Ozzie’s yang, the calm at the center of the storm and frankly, one of the greatest White Sox players in history. His resigning benefits the ‘intangibles’ side of the ledger. He isn’t ‘clutch’ nor does he come up with ‘big hits’ (allowing for one, really, really, really big exception) - no single player can will a team to win, especially in baseball. Konerko provides a valuable counterbalance in the clubhouse to Ozzie’s crazy, say-anything-at-any-time personality.

His signing makes the White Sox better because the White Sox players believe his signing makes them better (positivity breeds positivity, as it were). Conversely, they would have believed themselves at a severe disadvantage had he signed elsewhere. Whether we like it or not, mental outlook matters in this game. The interview he did with Boers and Bernstein on WSCR was quiet interesting with regards to his philosophy about baseball and specifically White Sox baseball [he admits he should have helped Brian Anderson more with off the field ass-clown-edge as well, which I found interesting].

Aside from the DH-production disparity, the Twins were also a much better fielding team than the Sox. A 38.4 FLD rating by Fangraphs for them against a -30.2 for us only confirms what we all saw. With Brent Morel is at third, the Sox have a strong left side of the infield, get to worry less about Konerko’s total lack of range and most importantly, remove Mark Teahen from pressure to do anything, anywhere, at any time for any reason (one more time for glory).

Though talk radio hosts and local writers like to think Omar Vizquel was a good fielder at third…he wasn’t. No, AJ isn’t Joe Mauer and yes, Quentin is one of the worst outfielders in baseball. But Rios and Pierre have enough range to help him out while Michael Cuddyer is no Carl Crawford (or even Jayson Werth) and Delmon Young* still has a glove. For their careers, Rios is a better center fielder than Denard Span.

Despite the deserved grief multi-year deals for relievers have gotten this off season, Jesse Crain might end up being the biggest reason the Sox overtake the Twins this year. His signing not only insures the White Sox never have to face him again, but when paired with Matt Gurrier’s defection to the Dodgers, the Twins have two sizable holes to fill in their bullpen. Crain has decent numbers, historically, in the Cell and is a ground-ball pitcher.

I have not examined the Twins moves, but I expect regression from Jim Thome, Danny Valencia, Francisco Liriano and even Justin Morneau (if Thome is as valuable as Dunn in 2011, I will physically eat my computer). They’ve downgraded at short going from JJ Hardy to Alexei Castilla and probably second as well (Orlando Hudson to Nishioka). The starting staff was uninspiring last year and only figures to get more so if Carl Pavano can be wooed elsewhere while the bullpen has major holes. Though Joe Nathan’s return is helpful, he alone isn’t enough.

Nothing in baseball is for certain. It is entirely possible that the 2011 Royals could be the 2008 Rays, the Tigers could get the rest of their rotation to step up, for our entire lineup to be in some sort of fire during Sox Fest or for God to continue to smile on Minneapolis (during the summer time, at least). I feel really good about the Sox chances for the division and more this year. Thoughts?

* = Also on the short list of ‘worst outfielder in baseball.’

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