Post from Alex Remington on Big League Stew
"Peavy's neutralized stats from 2009 agree with Golebiewski. According to the calculator on baseball-reference.com, if Peavy had pitched all of 2009 at The Cell, he would have had a 4.22 ERA and a 5-5 record, rather than the 3.45 and 9-6 marks he wound up with."
"The Forecast for 2010: I can't predict Peavy's likelihood of injury with any degree of certainty. (Peavy says he's healthy, though he notes that the White Sox have changed his usual offseason routine.) But I can try to predict his performance in the innings he does manage to twirl. Fortunately, his major injury last year was to his ankle, not his arm, and it was the first serious leg injury of his career.
If he can stand, he's the best pitcher the Sox have. Peavy will stand atop a rotation of inning-eaters in Mark Buehrle(notes), John Danks(notes), and Gavin Floyd(notes). AL starters had a 4.62 ERA last year, so even posting a 3.60 ERA would be nothing to sneeze at. If he gets to 180 innings, he could be the best pitcher in the division not named Zack Greinke(notes) or Justin Verlander(notes). I'm predicting an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00, likely around 3.60 or 3.70, with plenty of strikeouts but a few more homers than he's used to. He's still just 28 years old, and still a hell of a pitcher. He'll just have to hope that Alex Rios(notes), Paul Konerko(notes) and Gordon Beckham(notes) can put some runs on the board for him."