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Community Projection: Juan Pierre

It's community projection time.

We've been doing these for a few years, and there are always a few surprises (to me, at least). Occasionally, they demonstrate the value of an informed mass of people versus that of the strictly numbers-based projection system. 

We'll crank out a few of these a week, leaving the form open for 3-5 days so that everyone can participate. At which point, I'll run all the numbers through the spreadsheet (throwing out a garbage entry here or there) and produce a simple projection based of your input.

So, first up; Juan Pierre... Recent stats listed below... Community Projection Form after the jump.

Year Age AB R H SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
2005 27 656 96 181 57 17 41 45 .276 .326 .354
2006 28 699 87 204 58 20 32 38 .292 .330 .388
2007 29 668 96 196 64 15 33 37 .293 .331 .353
2008 30 375 44 106 40 12 22 24 .283 .327 .328
2009 31 380 57 117 30 12 27 27 .308 .365 .392
10 Seasons 5533 804 1663 459 155 340 337 .301 .348 .372
162 Game Avg. 626 91 188 52 18 38 38 .301 .348 .372
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/1/2010.

Star-divide

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for the record, i'm giving pierre 41/57 on stolen bases.

and i was thinking optimistically across the board when i started, but looking at his career numbers it appears he’s just not that good. without some crazy BABIP it’s gonna be tough for him to OPS+ anywhere near 100.

Cashing checks and having sex.

by MarketMaker on Mar 1, 2010 5:39 PM CST reply actions  

I gave him 50 sb

My guess is he has 1 decent season out of the 2. This one. Still won’t be OPS+ of 100 though but in the 90s.

"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer

by Tdogg on Mar 1, 2010 6:19 PM CST up reply actions  

I punched in my guess for Pierre, looked up Pods stats from 09, and they were really close.

Then I voted for better than Pods based on routes to the ball and baserunning.

by e-gus on Mar 1, 2010 6:02 PM CST reply actions  

i still hate having to compute all that stuff

slash line, SBs and CSs and PAs would be sufficient.

sweet little data entry table embed though. how’d you make it look so pretty?

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 1, 2010 6:41 PM CST reply actions  

Google is my friend...

select new>Form… then change theme

it tosses them in a SS so the whole data digestion/regurgitation takes like 20 minutes, with 15 minutes devoted to cleaning up the difference between .300 and 300 AVGs

by The Cheat on Mar 1, 2010 7:07 PM CST up reply actions  

that form embed looks way better than any of the tables/charts i've tried to embed

hence tableizer. i’d prefer to be able to make pretty google embeds though.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 1, 2010 7:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh, the table...

that’s straight off of BB-Ref…

click SHARE, [X] out the columns and rows you don’t want to include… then select which type of code you’d like to generate… (I chose HTML then pasted it into the HTML view of our editor) but you can probably use a simpler embed code with javascript and iframe.

by The Cheat on Mar 1, 2010 7:22 PM CST up reply actions  

no i meant the google form

the g-doc tables i’ve made always end up looking either ugly or have the damn hori-scroll

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 1, 2010 8:00 PM CST up reply actions  

ah... I just edit the horri-scroll out of them

you can manually change the height and width if you look at the embedded iframe…

by The Cheat on Mar 1, 2010 8:06 PM CST up reply actions  

lol

"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer

by Tdogg on Mar 2, 2010 9:20 AM CST up reply actions  

This is marvelous.

I just don’t feel like killing anyone else for as long as I can help it.

by winningugly on Mar 2, 2010 7:59 PM CST up reply actions  

i thought i had tried that

maybe not enough shrinkage.

you guys know what i’m talkin’ ’bout.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 1, 2010 8:43 PM CST up reply actions  

to be fair

they’ve updated them like 13 times already

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 1, 2010 9:48 PM CST up reply actions  

also what aging lineup?

Rios, Quentin, Teahen, Alexei, and Beckham are all on the right side of 30. i thought i saw they’re one of the younger teams in the league this year.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 1, 2010 9:53 PM CST up reply actions  

aging and injury prone

it was terribly worded.
old & infirm:
  - Paul
  - AJ
  - Q
  - Pierre
  - Crap Taco

Then he lumps Rios in with Q as an injury/poor performance risk which is correct, but what?

by coffeepac on Mar 1, 2010 10:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Silly.

Opinions vary, although Sox general manager Ken Williams has not been shy about muttering his “who cares,” even after the computer accurately predicted a 72-90 Sox record after the 2005 World Series.

Wow, it accurately predicted the 2007 record after the 2005 WS? Here I thought it made that prediction spring ’07. I guess PECOTA is even more impressive than I thought!

by Lone Pawn on Mar 1, 2010 10:26 PM CST up reply actions  

And it did so well in '05... even a clock is right twice a day.

Its just a guideline – if these predicitions were even half correct would Vegas be in business?

"ass hole thi is the same line up whit leftys you idiot"

by Brush Back on Mar 2, 2010 8:50 AM CST up reply actions  

"A broken clock is right twice a day."

Get with the cliche program, OPOS.

I just don’t feel like killing anyone else for as long as I can help it.

by winningugly on Mar 2, 2010 8:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Huh, what were we discussing again?

"ass hole thi is the same line up whit leftys you idiot"

by Brush Back on Mar 2, 2010 8:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Pi-Pod!

2010 WhiteSox Baseball: "even if it works it's still stupid"

by OznCoop on Mar 2, 2010 8:14 AM CST reply actions   1 recs

boy you got me confused

with someone who repeats himself

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 11:19 AM CST up reply actions  

"The Secret Life of Jake and Adrian"

2010 WhiteSox Baseball: "even if it works it's still stupid"

by OznCoop on Mar 2, 2010 8:41 AM CST reply actions  

--

2010 WhiteSox Baseball: "even if it works it's still stupid"

by OznCoop on Mar 2, 2010 8:51 AM CST up reply actions  

Im thinking Cheat after community projections

We have another session of Microsoft art for season predictions……

"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer

by Tdogg on Mar 2, 2010 9:22 AM CST reply actions  

this

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 11:19 AM CST up reply actions  

and they acquired Juan Pierre again because why?

Quentin can only play LF and Pierre can’t play anywhere else. Plus its his first year facing AL pitching. If he gets more than 250 PAs we’ve got some serious offensive problems.

No animals were harmed during the making of this comment.

by ChicagoPete on Mar 2, 2010 10:28 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

Q in RF

Pierre in LF while getting 600+ ABs.

Why would Pierre be the cause of serious offensive problems?

by jimmyjr on Mar 2, 2010 10:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Q is a natural RF...

Not sure why you would think he can only play LF. He was only there because of Jermaine Dye.
If he gets less than 250 ABs, I’d be more concerned. If he gets more, it’d hopefully mean he’s not a complete disaster.

by Grinder in Training on Mar 2, 2010 10:46 AM CST up reply actions  

he's a natural butcher out there

You can hide him LF not so much in right. I thought the whole point of giving Ozzie his toys is to improve defense?

I pray Jones pans out. A regular OF of Q/Jones/Rios is more palatable than Pierre/Rios/Q

No animals were harmed during the making of this comment.

by ChicagoPete on Mar 2, 2010 12:24 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

you've seen Q in right?!?!?!

and rios anywhere but center is just stupid

RIP Jim Thome 1-25-2010

an AL team not having a DH is like a giraffe fucking a mule. - larry

by blackoutsox on Mar 2, 2010 3:36 PM CST up reply actions  

If Jones has lost 45 lbs in the past two years

And is somehow back to what he was in Atl, Jones is probably better then Rios in CF. But that’s a low percentage event.

by coffeepac on Mar 2, 2010 3:40 PM CST up reply actions  

I never saw Jones play that much in his prime

but his reputation was that of the best CF in the NL. As much as I hated Erstad, he played a magnificent CF for the Sox in 2007. Jones is the same age that Erstad was that year. I think he’s the biggest wild card the Sox have this season.

Andruw Jones is only 32 years old, it’s not too hallucinogenic to imagine that he could have a really big year. I’m really encouraged that he seems to have gotten his head out of his ass and is finally taking his conditioning seriously. I don’t really care so much what he does with his bat, but if he can cover ground in CF like he used to that would be a huge boost with this pitching staff pairing him with Rios in RF (or vice versa).

No animals were harmed during the making of this comment.

by ChicagoPete on Mar 2, 2010 4:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Sure, I'm hopeful we get some like 80% version of prime Jones

but if he let his conditioning get too poor, he’s General Soreness II. Whenever he tries to bust out his old leather, he’s going to hurt himself.

Jones was Epically good: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=96&position=OF#fielding ’05, 34.7 UZR/150 Insanity pants!

by coffeepac on Mar 2, 2010 4:33 PM CST up reply actions  

*bUZR

sUZR says he was an average CF.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 5:09 PM CST up reply actions  

what do the b and s stand for?

or is it all a giant joke, perpetrated by the nerd community!??! get it? bs?

by coffeepac on Mar 3, 2010 9:50 AM CST up reply actions  

BIS or STATS

two different companies providing different stringer data.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 3, 2010 3:19 PM CST up reply actions  

been out of the country?

"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer

by Tdogg on Mar 2, 2010 10:49 AM CST up reply actions  

Yep. Indiana.

"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "

by Chiburb on Mar 2, 2010 10:51 AM CST up reply actions  

I lost interest

When they traded for Teahen

No animals were harmed during the making of this comment.

by ChicagoPete on Mar 2, 2010 12:59 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

You mean Q is going to be the RF?

Mercy, he’s a worse OF than JD

No animals were harmed during the making of this comment.

by ChicagoPete on Mar 2, 2010 12:06 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

uhhh

that is not likely to be correct

JD was the third worst amongst qualified fielders in baseball over the last three seasons.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 12:28 PM CST up reply actions  

fuck the stats

jd was a lot easier to watch out there than Quentin is…. I agree- Quentin is pretty awful. At least JD caught the ball if it was within his 10 feet radius. Quentin is far and away better than Podsy though.

Kenwo4life=ratings

by KenWo4LiFe on Mar 2, 2010 12:31 PM CST up reply actions  

ah, the ease of watching test.

quite venerable. torii hunter has won multiple gold gloves on that basis.

by larry on Mar 2, 2010 12:34 PM CST up reply actions  

true....

as well he should. he glides out there :)

Kenwo4life=ratings

by KenWo4LiFe on Mar 2, 2010 12:44 PM CST up reply actions  

so you agree JD has less range

but the aesthetics are what you’re going by?

the value of an uncaught fly ball is a double and basically no one drops balls they get to, so the only thing that really matters is range.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 12:52 PM CST up reply actions  

i just like my outfielders to prevent as many runs as possible.

i don’t care if they’re wearing dresses, using their hat to catch balls or are able to provide a soliloquy on the mechanics of outfield defense.

by larry on Mar 2, 2010 1:14 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

so it IS nobler to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous kenwo!

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 1:21 PM CST up reply actions  

This conclusion is excellent.

Perfect, even.

I just don’t feel like killing anyone else for as long as I can help it.

by winningugly on Mar 2, 2010 8:03 PM CST up reply actions  

agree

Q takes bad routes. Ball moves a lot more in RF coming off the bat of RHB

No animals were harmed during the making of this comment.

by ChicagoPete on Mar 2, 2010 1:02 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

evidence suggests LF and RF

are basically the same and do not require substantially different skillsets

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 1:08 PM CST up reply actions  

c'mon

Don’t tell me you actually believe that? You’d have no problem putting a Juan Pierre or Pods in RF? Brave is the man who first dared to eat an oyster.

No animals were harmed during the making of this comment.

by ChicagoPete on Mar 2, 2010 3:25 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

i'm sure that teams leverage it such that

the better arm goes in right, but it doesn’t mean that it makes a huge difference. it would just be dumb to go with the worse of the two options.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 3:30 PM CST up reply actions  

LF != RF

While skill sets are similar, we all know the ball plays differently in right field and It takes some time to adjust to this. Carlos was a plus defensive right fielder over a 120 or so game sample size with the diamondbacks, and I believe that was his natural position in college. He then had to relearn his instincts for LF when coming to the sox in 2008, and had the foot/knee problems last year.

If his legs really are healthy, I expect him to at least be defensively neutral, and possibly positive UZR in RF this year.

by paul_ on Mar 2, 2010 4:13 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

we all know?

that’s the best kind of evidence right there. but if we’re going with that kind of thing, i played plenty of outfield and shagged plenty of flies and never had any problem other than my totally unsurprising lack of speed. understanding flight paths of baseballs is not something major leaguers struggle with by and large. it’s certainly not an effect you can claim to pick out of 120 games of UZR.

seriously, there’s a reason why the position adjustment for left and right is the same. it wasn’t ass-pulled.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 4:27 PM CST up reply actions  

He's easy to watch because you were masturbating furiously to the sight of his corpse.

Give light skin a chance KenWo.

Taj Gibson is the face of Bulls basketball!
by Trey23 on Jan 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Mar 2, 2010 2:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Too much math, but this: "Physicist writes a better formula to predict baseball success"

“Bottom line: More consistent teams (narrower run distribution) tend to win more games for the same RPG (runs per game). Teams with higher SLG (slugging percentage) tend to have a narrower run distribution. Given two teams with the same RPG, a team with a SLG .080 higher will on average win one more game a season. If their pitching/defense has the same RPG allowed but a SLG allowed .080 lower, that would add another game.”

So there you have it: “The more consistent a team is in scoring runs, game to game, the better the team’s winning percentage for the total number of runs scored,” Whisnant said.

Across an entire 162-game season, Whisnant said more consistency could mean two additional wins. And that can be the difference between making the playoffs and calling it quits the first week in October.

"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "

by Chiburb on Mar 2, 2010 12:25 PM CST reply actions  

it's counter intuitive

but apparently correct, though i’m still not sure why. and the relevance is obvs.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 12:30 PM CST up reply actions  

I think it's actually intuitive to a non-math person like me...

If the Sox win 10-0, then lose 1-0 they still average 5 runs/game. But this says (I think), better to score 5 every day for the long haul, right?

"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "

by Chiburb on Mar 2, 2010 12:37 PM CST up reply actions  

This is also manifested in that run prevention is (marginally) more valuable than run production

If the Sox forecast to score 850 runs but allow 825, pythag says they’ll have a decent record (I don’t have time to run the equation right now)

But keep that same run differential, and lower the run scoring environment (say, 750 scored and 725 allowed) and pythag says to expect more win(s).

by The Cheat on Mar 2, 2010 12:47 PM CST up reply actions  

Used to argue this

Even though I didnt fully understand it then. One of the reasons I was less impressed with a few of the Indian teams and didn’t blindly follow run differential. They had a knack for winning 18-1 once in awhile inflating their numbers.

"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer

by Tdogg on Mar 2, 2010 1:02 PM CST up reply actions  

"save some for tomorrow"!

"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "

by Chiburb on Mar 2, 2010 1:04 PM CST up reply actions  

25 run diferential is a larger % of 750 than 850.

Ergo, it makes sense the pythag favors it more.

I just don’t feel like killing anyone else for as long as I can help it.

by winningugly on Mar 2, 2010 8:06 PM CST up reply actions  

right but why does that suggest SLG is important?

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 12:55 PM CST up reply actions  

this is curious to me as well.

i thought OBP was more important.

Lurking since 2006

by boyonthedock on Mar 2, 2010 2:31 PM CST up reply actions  

the more i think about it

the more i think the statement “OBP is more important than SLG” is nonsensical. they aren’t even scaled the same, so how can you take the two numbers and compare without knowing what a marginal walk or base is worth?

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 2:41 PM CST up reply actions  

I think that's why OBP is more important, in OPS

The correct scaling factor is 1.8 points of obp per point of slg.

by coffeepac on Mar 2, 2010 2:44 PM CST up reply actions  

right

that statement makes sense. and i assume that’s the context from which the statement was taken…but then it got clipped out somehow.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 3:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Kind of like the asimov quote

Man’s greatest asset… and the whole story is about the part of the quote that gets cut. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Greatest_Asset

Slightly deeper then I intended, but still relevant in that you shouldn’t parrot common or intelligent sayings. And that you should question what other people say.

by coffeepac on Mar 2, 2010 3:35 PM CST up reply actions  

sounds like a Borges story

with more robots and fewer infinite libraries

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 3:51 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Post-modern rec

Reporter: I was wondering if at any point in my lifetime the Cubs weren't going to be run by a guy who didn't immediately remind me of failure, confusion, or imminent death

by Hazymania on Mar 2, 2010 9:06 PM CST up reply actions  

more importantly though

you’re right. i used an oft-repeated phrase the meaning of which i only thought i knew. it’s tough to catch them all.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 3:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Its mostly impossible to catch them all

But its important to remain open to being corrected when the statement becomes incorrect.

I’ve been flinching whenever anyone uses the word marginal these days (its trendy!). I don’t think that particular concept is easy to understand. I don’t fully understand it, so I try and not use it.

by coffeepac on Mar 2, 2010 3:56 PM CST up reply actions  

i like this wiki bit

“A change that would be effected as or by a specific loosening or tightening of those constraints is a marginal change, as large as the smallest relevant division of that good or service.”

or maybe:

what happens when you want to add one more?

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 4:14 PM CST up reply actions  

I swear I understand every word on its own in the first 'graph.

But not in that order.

i thought there was some notion of creating a new baseline. So, your marginal add from starting with 3 of something is different then starting with 82 of something.

by coffeepac on Mar 2, 2010 4:39 PM CST up reply actions  

it may or may not be

the point is to hold everything constant but the addition/subtraction at a given point of a given unit so you can find out.

diminishing marginal utility, then, means that as you continue to add one unity, the utility gained is less and less.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 5:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Stop it! You two are making me wet.

"You two need to get a room filled with condoms and calculators!"

by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 3, 2010 12:23 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

oh.

so, “marginal batting wins” = “additional wins due to adding offensive runs only”.

Used in a sentence:
Pierre and Pods are the same on defense and the basebaths, but Pierre has marginal offensive value because he his BABIP is historically 30 points higher.

Right? (The comparison is using fake data from my head)

by coffeepac on Mar 3, 2010 9:56 AM CST up reply actions  

that's really more of an aggregate

Hatchetm’s comment about the runs per game distribution article at THT below gets right at it:

“marginal runs 8,9,10….20 are not really worth much.

if you score 12 runs, odds of winning must be 95%, 13 runs maybe 96%.

if you score 4 runs, odds of winning may be 35%, 5 runs, 55%."

And then the actual data:

 RS Win% Diff
    0 .000
    1 .077 .077
    2 .208 .131
    3 .339 .131
    4 .471 .132
    5 .593 .122
    6 .686 .092
    7 .776 .090
    8 .840 .064
    9 .874 .034
   10 .921 .047
   11 .939 .018
   12 .963 .025
   13 .987 .024
   14 .978 -.009
   15 .976 -.001
   16 .983 .007
   17 1.000 .017

The difference column is a marginal difference, the difference between what you’ve already got and what happens when you add one to it. Check out the article, I think it’ll help.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 3, 2010 3:36 PM CST up reply actions  

another concept that might help illustrate:

once you purchase a widget maker and everything it takes to make widgets, what does it cost to make an additional widget? prior to purchasing the capital, the cost of making 1 widget was enormous. the difference in cost after the capital acquisition is the marginal difference. the fact that it costs very little is represented by the notion of economies of scale.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 3, 2010 3:45 PM CST up reply actions  

OR MAYBE IT IS YOU WHO KNOWS VERY LITTLE

that was your mind being blown. you’re welcome.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 3, 2010 7:11 PM CST up reply actions  

thirdly

just because it’s vaguely relevant and read and liked it:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/07/books/review/07WALLACE.html

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 3:55 PM CST up reply actions  

haha, the page isn't loading.

the status bar on the bottom of firefox says, ‘Waiting for 2004…’.

by coffeepac on Mar 2, 2010 3:57 PM CST up reply actions  

also, in your example (let's say the alternative is 6 and 4 runs in a win and a loss)

it’s not clear which is better or why.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 12:56 PM CST up reply actions  

i think i get it now

“at some point, someone has to drive in the runs”

if you had a team with a .400 OBP but never got a hit, they’d have a tough time scoring runs. this is reflected in linear weights, for example, in that a single is worth more than a walk.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 1:00 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm not smart enough to crunch all the numbers.

I would think that a single with no one on base should be worth the same as a walk. Should a single wnoob be worth the same as a single with a risp? Would there be a benefit to weighting those 2 two singles differently?

"You two need to get a room filled with condoms and calculators!"

by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 3, 2010 12:31 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

I'll stop smoking and go to bed now.

"You two need to get a room filled with condoms and calculators!"

by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 3, 2010 12:32 AM CST via mobile up reply actions   2 recs

ahh, no, you have a point.

That’s where linear weights start breaking down. They don’t represent any exact game state. They represent an average of all game states.

If you want to incorporate game state to value that exact single you need to use something like WPA. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/get-to-know-wpa/

by coffeepac on Mar 3, 2010 10:03 AM CST up reply actions  

you're right on (and so is c-pac's response below)

and there are a few different ways to take care of that. but the way you do it depends on what exactly you want to talk about. wOBA uses the average linear weight because it wants to know about hitting skill, not necessarily actual runs contributed.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 3, 2010 3:32 PM CST up reply actions  

I remember hardball times did a piece on this

I want to say in 05 involving the White Sox. Cliff note version was KW or Ozzie were correct in their assumption on focusing on more consistent run production even if less runs. 5555 better than 8-3-2-7

"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer

by Tdogg on Mar 2, 2010 1:00 PM CST up reply actions  

you remember who wrote it?

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 1:01 PM CST up reply actions  

This one?

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/runs-per-game/

"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "

by Chiburb on Mar 2, 2010 1:26 PM CST up reply actions  

yep

with the link to the previous article also.

"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer

by Tdogg on Mar 2, 2010 1:31 PM CST up reply actions  

For instance, if your league averaged five runs a game, and your team scored exactly five runs in every game, it would typically have a .600 winning percentage instead of .500, even though it had scored the average number of runs. That is the power of looking at distributions instead of averages.

"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "

by Chiburb on Mar 2, 2010 1:26 PM CST up reply actions  

that is pretty interesting

and basically new to me.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 2:20 PM CST up reply actions  

i think this is because

marginal runs 8,9,10….20 are not really worth much.

if you score 12 runs, odds of winning must be 95%, 13 runs maybe 96%.

if you score 4 runs, odds of winning may be 35%, 5 runs, 55%.

i’m just tossing numbers out my ass, but that’s the idea.

by Hatchetm on Mar 2, 2010 3:42 PM CST up reply actions  

that is in fact what the article states

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 3:47 PM CST up reply actions  

i remember reading about the inverse being true at some point

i.e. inconsistent pitching is better, which follows logically from consistent offense scores more runs.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 1:02 PM CST up reply actions  

The article was more about scoring runs,

how the Sox didn’t have a lot of high scoring games (or even low scoring games) they concentrated their runs in the 4-5 run department where they had the most effectiveness in influence on W vs. L.

by The Cheat on Mar 2, 2010 1:09 PM CST up reply actions  

yep

It was before the articles you linked colin.

"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer

by Tdogg on Mar 2, 2010 1:10 PM CST up reply actions  

"I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs."

In Seattle, a resigned sigh escapes the lips of a foul-mouthed angel. ~wu

by homesickalien on Mar 2, 2010 3:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Wow ran across this while looking.

Some of Aaron Gleeman’s early work

KWunder the radar 05 season

Kenwo notice the section on the Pods/Lee deal. (And I realize I said I’d given up on you)

Conclusion:
Though the White Sox did not compensate for their biggest offensive loss (Carlos Lee) they were able to use the money saved on his contract to pick up 5 players, and fill 4 holes in their lineup. It is really quite amazing what Ken Williams was able to do in just moving one contract. However, though the Sox may look like a different team, looking at the numbers shows that they are not necessarily better. I’m not going to go and predict a 90-win season or anything, but the White Sox are at least exciting again. How long that excitement lasts is the next question.

"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer

by Tdogg on Mar 2, 2010 1:19 PM CST reply actions  

I honestly forgot KW

tried to spend the money a few different times.

"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer

by Tdogg on Mar 2, 2010 1:22 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm all for the trade.. just b/c if you win the World Series

It’s hard to complain about anything. But I can see where he’s coming from. If you just want to dump salary, why not trade the guy for prospects instead of average veterans?

In my mind though, there’s no need for an argument here, you’re just focused on different things. Kenwo.. his hatred of life and his want to complain about anything Sox related (oh, how the Kenwo will embrace old age, it will be truly spectacular) and you.. your love of World Series victories, regardless how you get them.

You both win.. you got the World Series celebration, he gets to make a point that KW could have won it even more efficiently then he had.

Spring training has started, it’s time to move on to 2010.

by Grinder in Training on Mar 2, 2010 1:54 PM CST up reply actions  

eh i'd say it is over

but next time i give an opinion on anything he will be on it like jenna jamison…. we are enemies til the end!!!!!

Kenwo4life=ratings

by KenWo4LiFe on Mar 2, 2010 2:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Kenwo is white??!

In Seattle, a resigned sigh escapes the lips of a foul-mouthed angel. ~wu

by homesickalien on Mar 2, 2010 3:40 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

it was the steroids he took in an attempt to revive his little league career

RIP Jim Thome 1-25-2010

an AL team not having a DH is like a giraffe fucking a mule. - larry

by blackoutsox on Mar 2, 2010 3:43 PM CST up reply actions  

So was Michael Jackson in the end.

I just don’t feel like killing anyone else for as long as I can help it.

by winningugly on Mar 2, 2010 8:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Not sure if this is green but it should be.

"You two need to get a room filled with condoms and calculators!"

by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 3, 2010 12:37 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

well said.

"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer

by Tdogg on Mar 2, 2010 2:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Hey now!

I like it when people other than me go at eachothers throats!

"You two need to get a room filled with condoms and calculators!"

by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 3, 2010 12:38 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

KW didn't want to dump salary
If you just want to dump salary, why not trade the guy for prospects instead of average veterans?

They added 10 million in salary between opening day ’04 and ’05. That money was going elsewhere. The team is positioned financially relative to the ALC such that it can more or less always and should compete.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 2:18 PM CST up reply actions  

If you want to dump salary to spend it elsewhere

Why not trade him for prospects and then sign the middle of the road players off the free agent market. Is that a better description of Kenwo’s argument?

by Grinder in Training on Mar 2, 2010 2:32 PM CST up reply actions  

not sure i really see the difference between prospects and what KW obtained.

their salaries were low and KW then did go sign players in the free agent market.

by larry on Mar 2, 2010 2:40 PM CST up reply actions  

you mean prospects that were ready to play in '05?

like larry says, how is that different than what KW actually did?

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 2:42 PM CST up reply actions  

No..

I meant prospects as in young players that are in the minor leagues. Then sign Pods & Vizcaino equivilants in the free agent market.
So you sign the guys you did.. and a couple of other free agents instead of trading for Pods and Vizcaino. While trading Carlos Lee for prospects. It wasn’t like Carlos Lee’s contract was an albatross, he was a good player making reasonable money.

by Grinder in Training on Mar 2, 2010 3:00 PM CST up reply actions  

I assume because KW expected them to provide surplus value

Pods and Viz were paid ~2MM in ‘09 dollars in 2005. That’s worth about a win or so. They actually contributed twice that. So KW likely could not have gone on the FA market and gotten similar value at cost.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2010 3:45 PM CST up reply actions  

They also probably provided more value than any prospects would have.

You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan

by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 2, 2010 6:39 PM CST up reply actions  

I think I enjoy your sig more every single time you comment, DB.

In Seattle, a resigned sigh escapes the lips of a foul-mouthed angel. ~wu

by homesickalien on Mar 2, 2010 10:39 PM CST up reply actions  

increasing marginal utility!

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 3, 2010 3:38 PM CST up reply actions  

kenny understands prospects as being fairly liquid

so he could have flipped them thereafter or something like that. but yeah, if left in the minors they obviously contribute nothing to the major league club’s WAR.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on Mar 3, 2010 3:40 PM CST up reply actions  

dann can we get Juan juan off the front page?

I’m embarrassed to pull this ish up at the office in front of all the Yankee fans. Mets fans are scared of me cause I will tear their team to crap, but I got nothing against Yanks fans.

by madvillian on Mar 2, 2010 2:35 PM CST reply actions  

Well they hosted Swisher last year.

2010 WhiteSox Baseball: "even if it works it's still stupid"

by OznCoop on Mar 2, 2010 2:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Bad enough for me with the Cub fans around here...

Best game I ever attended was the 163rd game in 2008. Thanks John Danks and Jim Thome.

by NorthSidePaulie on Mar 2, 2010 2:54 PM CST up reply actions  

I'd much rather be surrounded by Yankee fans.

At least their arrogance is warranted. I don’t even find them quite as obnoxious as Cubs or Red Sox fans.

by ExileDC on Mar 2, 2010 3:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Only warranted last year in recent times.

The default entitlement attitude during the other less successful years was pretty grating too. I suppose the generally higher baseball knowledge compared to the Cub fans does make them ever so slightly more tolerable though. Same goes for Red Sox fans.

Best game I ever attended was the 163rd game in 2008. Thanks John Danks and Jim Thome.

by NorthSidePaulie on Mar 2, 2010 3:25 PM CST up reply actions  

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