God Save the Queen: A Kansas City Royals Preview
by U-God on Mar 23, 2010 9:08 AM CDT
Email
PrintThe second in a series of looks at the competition for the crown in the mediocrity that is the 2010 AL Central.
Dates we play them: 5/3-5/5 at home, 5/14-5/16, 6/28-6/30 @ KC, 7/9-7/11 at home, 8/20-8/22 @ KC, 9/10-9/12 at home
Offense: A potential line-up: Scott Podsednik-LF, Chris Getz-2B, Billy Butler-1B, Jose Guillen-DH, David DeJesus-RF, Rick Ankiel-CF, Alex Gordon-3B, Yuniesky Betancourt-SS, Jason Kendall-C. Bench- Alberto Callaspo-UTIL, Brian N. Anderson-OF, Willie Bloomquist-UTIL, Brayan Peña-C, Josh Fields-CI/OF/DH.
Gross. The Royals have the worst offense in the AL Central. Unfortunately for fans in the city of fountains, the Royals lack the great or even average defense of other punchless teams. If it weren't for their pitching, I would refer to them as the Glass Joe of the league. Scott Podsednik, I am so happy you're gone. I love you for what you've done for us, but I got so tired of seeing this, this, and this. Someday I'll be able to think with nostalgia, til then I'll think of you as what you are: a 34-year old slap hitter with leg issues and mediocre at best defense. Never change. Chris Getz is another person who needs little intro. Mr. Glass can be a useful player if he gets his walk rate back up and can stay healthy. The former is much more likely than the latter. He's fast and a great thief (25-27 last year), but unlikely to play in more than 120 games. Billy Butler is the best hitter on the team, and that is not meant as a back-handed compliment. Butler turned it on in the second half, to the tune of a .314/.385/.540 line with 13 homers in 73 games. He hit 51 doubles last year. Expect that number to drop some this year with a slight bump in homeruns coming with that. The only true knocks on him are that he's slow and kind of crappy at defense. He turns 24 in April, so the Royals should have at least one budding star hitter for a while. We follow that bright spot with perhaps the worst contract on the team (I don't count Kyle Farnsworth because I find him to be awesome). You might wonder why I have such an expensive black-hole batting fourth. The answer is Trey Hillman. The man is a horrible manager. Last year Mike Jacobs hit fourth 62 times (.576 OPS hitting 4th) and Guillen hit fourth 49 times (.618 OPS). Obviously numbers are not part of this equation. Luckily for them, this is the last year on the less-talented and vocal version of Milton Bradley's contract.
David DeJesus has had the misfortune of being a Royals lifer. He hasn't been worth less than 2.6 WAR since before we won the World Series. While he can't play center anymore, he's pretty good in the corners. He's a good player who rarely gets noticed outside of the sabr-community. I hope Dayton trades him somewhere good. Remember when Rick Ankiel was supposed to be the next great pitcher and then this happened? And then remember how he was supposed to make it as a power-hitting outfielder and then he went all Aaron Rowand last May? He should bounce back slightly next season, but switching leagues and injuries will likely stop him from returning to his 07-08 numbers. He may start this year on the disabled list, which would most likely result in Mitch Meier playing left and Scotty Pods playing center. Ankiel should be playing in a corner, but Hillman is Hillman. The Next George Brett hasn't quite turned out like he was supposed to. Injuries and slumps have dominated Alex Gordon's career so far, but he is only 26 and was a 2.4 WAR player as a 24-year old. If he stays healthy (he currently has a broken thumb), he could be a good player. The Hall of Fame dreams have died though. Yunieski Betancourt is terrible. He was the worst position player in the majors last year according to WAR (-2.2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!). He can't hit, run, field, or draw a walk. He really does nothing and will hit the bench as soon as Mike Aviles is healthy and ready to play. Jason Kendall is heading into his 15th season in the bigs and plays like it. His speed and power have long since left, though his defense hasn't completely crapped out. Thanks to the wonderful Dayton Moore, the Royals are on the hook for $6 million over the next two years for the soon to be 36-year old catcher.
Pitching: A potential rotation and closer: Zack Greinke-RHP, Gil Meche-RHP, Brian Bannister-RHP, Luke Hochevar-RHP, Kyle Davies-RHP, Joakim Soria-CL.
Zack Greinke is one of the top two pitchers in baseball and is the reigning AL Cy Young winner. He was two strikeouts away from the franchise last year and did it in 40 less innings. He thrives off his mid-90s fastball and slider, throwing in a curveball and changeup as well. He also has the type of personality that makes him very fun to follow. Gil Meche is one of, if not the best, free agent signings Moore has pulled off in KC. Last year was the first season he didn't surpass his contract value, and this was mostly due to not pitching the entire last month and a heightened BABIP. He probably won't get completely back to 07-08 form this year, but something between those seasons and last year's numbers seem like a safe bet. Brian Bannister, son of former 66 game winner for the White Sox Floyd Bannister, will be the number three or four guy in the rotation this season. He attended the same high school as Paul Konerko, and both of their numbers were retired there 3 years ago. Bannister is most well-known for being a major league who actually loves and uses advanced statistics. He only gets around 100Ks a year, and lives on the razor's edge because of it. He's been good the past two years, and now that he has a quality cutter he should have more success as a groundballer. Hochevar is still trying to not completely fail at living up to his potential. The number one overall pick in the 2006 draft, Luke hasn't even come close to living up to expectations. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but the other shoe has often dropped. Davies is one of Moore's Atlanta Guys. He came to KC on the 2007 trade deadline for Octavio Dotel. He's decent at the back of the rotation, but will never be anything more than a fifth starter and probably wouldn't be that on a contending team. Joakim Soria is just as awesome as his nickname (The Mexicutioner). His K:BB ratios is sublime (4.31). One of the best Rule 5 draft selections in recent memory, Soria dominates with a low-90s fastball, mid-80s changeup, and 70mph curveball.
Outlook: The Royals are still a few years from contending, but have a solid farm system. With a new owner, manager, and general manager, they may actually have a chance. While they'll be competing with the Cleveland Indians for 4th place in the Central this season, they'll still play us well. Prediction: 12-6.
61 comments
|
4 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
How have I never heard...
The Mexicutioner before? Outstanding. And excellent post, U-God. I’m a little surprised that you didn’t work in one picture of Mrs. Pods as someone you will miss, but I’m not going to criticize.
i wanted to
but figured i’d have to potentially throw in a NSFW warning, which could throw the flow
"A brief but trenchant analysis of Scott Podsednik
He’s dogshit."
by NYRoyal on Jan 8, 2010 8:56 AM PST
Nicely done. Only quibble is you should've stolen my sig as the headline.
As I stole it from Joe Pos…
"April showers bring May flowers and May flowers bring mathematical elimination day to Kansas City".--- Joe Pos
OT: For MM, WU, and others interested in the markets and the economy...
This probably belongs 2 threads back, but that one is getting a bit lardy to revisit. So without hijacking U-God’s work…
I’ve been reading this site for about a year now, and am finally getting a REAL education about the industry in which I’ve worked for 35 years. If you don’t mind HSA-like posts (“wordy warning”!), I suspect you’ll learn some things too. Even when you don’t agree or understand, your time is never wasted. From the masthead, with link following:
The Epicurean Dealmaker
An occasional review and commentary on Wall Street, global finance, markets, and their participants,
by a pseudonymous investment banker.
Sometimes we will venture out into the broader landscape of society, culture, and politics
to poke and peer at their curious denizens and bring back amusing reports.
Names will be changed to protect the innocent, if we find any.
http://epicureandealmaker.blogspot.com/
"April showers bring May flowers and May flowers bring mathematical elimination day to Kansas City".--- Joe Pos
That actually...
looks very interesting. Thanks for suggesting it. How far do I have to read before seeing dead horses?
i added him to my reader last week
between that and naked capitalism, i was convinced that the Fed had been pursuing their contractionary policy in order to give the banks time to recapitalize at the expense of the rest of the economy. now i think it might be the Fed protecting our status as bank to the world.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
i was thinking about starting a post
so one of you could explain this shit to me. Bernanke’s moves make no sense to me and i can’t believe he ended up killing the effect of the stimulus with his policy. scott sumner went on and on about the interest on excess reserve problem and lo! it came to pass.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
"i can’t believe he ended up killing the effect of the stimulus with his policy."
I’m no economist, and will defer to you or others who actually study this shit. But…
That reads a little over the top. The Fed paying interest on reserves is an anti-inflationary tactic (as I understand it). The critics say that the banks have no incentive to make loans when their reserves are earnng that interest, and that hurts the “recovery” of Main Street.
I could see that being a problem if there was such a demand for loans from Main Street. But I don’t see it. I see retrenchment, downsizing, hiring freezes, belt tightening instead. I can’t recall a single friend or neighbor or bar patron tell a tale of woe about trying to borrow and being denied. Anecdotal, but it’s all I have. And if I’m right, the Fed’s policies are encouraging a fragile banking system to increase reserves… which isn’t a bad thing at this time.
As for “killing the effect of the stimulus’”, I’d be more worried about the White House and Congress than the Fed at achieving that. FDR in ‘37 started listening to the conservatives and reigned in government stimulus (which was working). That pulling back worsened things until WW2 created the biggest stimulus of them all. Btw, I think I’ve read that Bernanke is/was a student of that so should be more aware of what he’s doing than we can devine.
Anybody else?
(Thanks for the thread, U-God!)
"April showers bring May flowers and May flowers bring mathematical elimination day to Kansas City".--- Joe Pos
divine. not Andy Devine.
"April showers bring May flowers and May flowers bring mathematical elimination day to Kansas City".--- Joe Pos
one reason those banks still make loans is because of all the fun fees they can charge for making them.
currently re-financing the wife’s condo. obviously i’m not the type to be denied a loan so i can’t comment on the ease of getting credit but these guys make a pretty penny on the fees, not just the interest.
and, to the larger point, yes, increasing reserves is kind of a good idea right now.
i thought you were doing the re-financing?
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
I'm a bit hesitant to believe that an effective stimulus is possible.
In the 1930s, there was the opportunity to build new roads, dams, bridges, powerplants and university buildings that had positive NPV potential.
Outside of improving internet access/speed and making buildings more energy efficient, I don’t know if there are that many positive NPV opportunities today. Stuff like cash for clunkers reaks of inefficent use of funds.
Many of those roads, damn, bridges, powerplants and university buildings could stand fairly significant repairs/upgrades
The sagging infrastructure in this country could maybe provide something of a boost?
Reporter: I was wondering if at any point in my lifetime the Cubs weren't going to be run by a guy who didn't immediately remind me of failure, confusion, or imminent death
One-shot deal, not lasting.
Biotech, nanotech, etc. is sustaining/growth-oriented. Should be lots of $ plowed into research. Infrastructure is a cost (necessary) but not an investment, per se. The FDR initiatives did nopthing for the economy in a long-term sense – WW II actually helped pull us out of the Depression, not any of FDR’s one-offs.
He's a cunning Jew. by Ozzie Montana on Mar 13, 2010 3:30 PM EST
renewable energies is something I think the stimulus should support a lot more, its more sustainable
and the FDR programs did work, but they were not a long term solution. The economy bounced up and down in accordance with government spending but no final solution was forseeable. WW2 did pull us out of the depression for good.
RIP Jim Thome 1-25-2010
an AL team not having a DH is like a giraffe fucking a mule. - larry
How does starting to build the highway system that allows the cheap efficient movement of people and goods do nothing for the economy in the long-term?
Not to mention increasing the electricity generating capacity and flood control systems.
Yeah, you sure can say the Dan Ryan would be more efficient
if only they’d add another lane or repave it. Fer Chrissakes. The highway system is built. Go to Mississippi (perish the thought) and watch the tobacco litigation-funded Roads to Nowhere. Same in my state of Florida – road are built with no communities being served by them.
He's a cunning Jew. by Ozzie Montana on Mar 13, 2010 3:30 PM EST
i don't get it. are you actually arguing *against* the eisenhower interstate system as a whole as an investment?
or just arguing about specific implementations of parts of the system?
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
by thatshortkid on Mar 24, 2010 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions
I am suggesting that stating "highways will help the economy
by making transportation more efficient" is fallacious. Go to Atlanta or Houston to see how concrete cuts down traffic. And go to LA to see how new public transportation invites people to give up their cars.
He's a cunning Jew. by Ozzie Montana on Mar 13, 2010 3:30 PM EST
by winningugly on Mar 25, 2010 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions
i have been to all 3. all 3 suck ass (for different reasons). and i got to all 3 quite easily by car.
i’m pretty sure joewho’s argument is about the interstate highways linking cities, not urban sprawl problems within them.
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
by thatshortkid on Mar 26, 2010 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions
i think it's possible when the money supply is sufficient
iirc, Roosevelt had varying policies over the decade that made some of his public works project worthwhile and some not in terms of stimulus. the other thing is that public goods do have value in and of themselves that has probably made those investments worthwhile. i don’t think anyone would bitch about the freeway system’s method of installation, for instance.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
But isn't stimulus only effective if it is actually productive?
Wouldn’t the government borrowing money to pay people to perform pointless work destroy value? The goverment would have to interest on the borrowed money and the project itself would return no value.
if it's done in a recession and paid back when times are good
probably. buit i wasn’t talking about make work.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
gah. try again.
if it’s done in a recession and paid back when times are good, it’s probably fine. even it it’s make work. but i wasn’t talking about make work.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
well i don't study it other than to say i read a crapload of blogs
the two i mentioned: Naked Capitalism is written by an anonymous investment banker and Scott Sumner (writes The Money Illusion) is a prof at Bentley and specifically studied the Great Depression and monetary history. He wrote about the possibility of deflationary policy by the Fed would reduce the multiplier and wondered if most models (including Christina Romer’s) were including that possibility.
my best summary of the reading is:
the M1 graph there is the money supply in terms of currency in circulation as well as checking deposits and a few other things. it’s easy to see that would go down if banks were paid excess interest on their reserves. they have a specific incentive not to loan. i know larry mentioned those fees. they would be held constant here unless banks seriously jacked their fees since ‘08. that’s possible i guess, but i can’t speak to that. not to mention that would have the effect of increasing public hoarding to some degree if the public knew about fee jacking. so in the very least it should be obvious that this a deflationary policy that the Fed is engaging in. if there were going to be a multiplier for the stimulus, it would be dependent on the amount of currency in circulation. the lower the supply, the smaller the multiplier.
also, as far as your anecdotes go, there’s a causality problem there. the Fed started their deflationary policy as of October ‘08. if we’d had more inflationary policy, we could boost AD and have a recovery. but we’ve got too little money chasing excess goods even still. if the Fed thinks that we still need to be protecting the banks then they’re still zombies and we should probably let them go (can it honestly be the best policy to continue to prop these guys up? simon johnson was the friggin econ head of the IMF and he doesn’t think so. and there’s at least some chance that we have to deal with regulatory capture of the fucking Fed and Treasury. or their incompetence. so that’s where i think we’re at. and it’s really really frustrating if that’s the case.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
do they have him on?
i read his big piece on the proper way of re-constituting banks post crisis and every now and then something on baseline scenario.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
yeah he was everywhere when things were going to hell
and for good reason.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
oh, i also forgot to mention
apparently Bernanke wrote a paper criticizing the BoJapan circa ‘99 for the same policy he’s enacting. the major difference between then and now by my understanding is that the Japanese banks weren’t shot to shit.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
Nice. Thanks again
I love Billy Butler and Im so happy to talk and read about baseball again…..
"Have fun with those stats buddy"
"I still don’t see where what I said in my comments isn’t true. But hey a man gotta have his stats."
by Dils
watched them hit double after double
against Peavy yesterday. Including a pair by Goggles himself (who had the predictable error, I think we scored 2 of our 5 runs on twp KC errors yest, they had 4 and their defense did look crappy). I guess Jake didn’t want to show too much of his stuff against a division opponent.
Best game I ever attended was the 163rd game in 2008. Thanks John Danks and Jim Thome.
by NorthSidePaulie on Mar 23, 2010 12:29 PM CDT reply actions
well 71 fastballs in 74 pitches would fit the bill.
"Have fun with those stats buddy"
"I still don’t see where what I said in my comments isn’t true. But hey a man gotta have his stats."
by Dils
I had forgotten they signed Kendall. Fantastic.
Grienke: “I could hit me if someone were on base. It wouldn’t be easy, but I could do it. If no one were on base, I wouldn’t care as much, so I could get me out.”
I officially want him on my team.
by The Actual El Guapo on Mar 23, 2010 1:55 PM CDT reply actions
great stuff
i forget if i said i dug the Minny post too, but both have been spot on to my eyes.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
Beware the Secret Weapons!
"One more game and then we can blow this son of a b@#$* up!" - Hawk Harrelson on his thoughts regarding the Metrodome
by tailgater on Mar 23, 2010 2:28 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs
Beating the Royals is gonna be fun this year.
Losing to the Royals is gonna SUCK this year
Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
SouthSideSox on Facebook
by The Cheat on Mar 23, 2010 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yo! Sup,B?
"April showers bring May flowers and May flowers bring mathematical elimination day to Kansas City".--- Joe Pos
After 3 innings
SF 4 runs, 8 hits. Floyd # pitches 63, fast balls 72.
BTW Sox 0 hits.
UPDATE thru 4,
SF 6 runs, 9 hits. Floyd # pitches 78, fast balls 84.
BTW Sox 1 hit.
you conviently neglect to mention
the sox also have a stolen base.
"I could give two (bleeps) about it," Buehrle said. "I think this whole Facebook, Twitter, all this stuff is ridiculous, if you ask me."
kc-cubs on mlbn.
looks like kc looking to retain the crown for worst base running. mercy.
"I could give two (bleeps) about it," Buehrle said. "I think this whole Facebook, Twitter, all this stuff is ridiculous, if you ask me."
blahblahblahblahflowerstripleablahblahblah
RIP Jim Thome 1-25-2010
an AL team not having a DH is like a giraffe fucking a mule. - larry
by blackoutsox on Mar 23, 2010 7:15 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
