Juan Pierre Community Projection Results
by The Cheat on Mar 3, 2010 5:14 PM CST
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PrintI'm not going to offer a lot of analysis on this one, as I'm headed out the door.
Method: I simply use a straight average to come up with our Community Projection, and provide the Standard Deviation +/- to give you a PECOTA-like range of projected performance. And finally, I've listed a 5% correction (multiplying the community average by .95) to try to balance out the rampant optimism of Sox fans in March. It's not an exact science -- it's not even science -- so you'll find a built in error of H/AB not equaling batting average. But I don't care. I love to do these things. It's fun to see what you guys think, and what we can come up with as a group.
I have to thank you guys for participating. We had over 110 responses, of which I deleted only two; one person who had Pierre slugging 4.000 and another who stated his slugging was "N/A because slugging was a garbage measurement for a leadoff man." I especially have to thank one of you who took the initiative to email me with some excel help (even though I'm using Google Docs) to normalize the difference between entries that write average as "0.300" vs. "300." If anyone knows how to sort the final column of the raw data into a nice graph, drop me a line and we'll end up with some visually stunning projections in the future.
Update: Karkoviceishawt provides the stupendous graphic 
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I actually almost posted something similar to what the second person said,
but Im a sheep
baaa
RIP Jim Thome 1-25-2010
an AL team not having a DH is like a giraffe fucking a mule. - larry
where are you going?
also, you probably could have deleted the dude who had pierre down for 98 extra base hits.
also the dude who had pierre for an avg of .234, an obp of .234 and a slg of .546.
you are certainly one of the more ridiculous people on this board. ~ larry
Agreed
even the 5% correction numbers wouldn’t be a complete disaster, though there is still the issue of his noodle arm in left.
foody will be in 5 dimensions at once
we can all sit next to him
by e-gus on Mar 3, 2010 4:02 PM CST
not sure in what land a .274/.322/.351 wasn't a complete disaster
but in the american league land where the white sox play, that line is rather disastrous, particularly from a guy who is likely to be leading off, playing a corner outfield position and not playing that corner position very well.
This.
I shielded my eyes when I saw those numbers. Pay no attention to the AVG and SB.
OT: I hate being shut out of these threads at work. You guys are on fire lately. I predict a great SSS year, no matter what the Sox do.
I just don’t feel like killing anyone else for as long as I can help it.
Can't pull off the smart phone?
IPhone, droid, whatever all seem to have access now.
by Grinder in Training on Mar 4, 2010 10:39 AM CST up reply actions
It's cumbersome as hell to pull off my Blackberry.
I just don’t feel like killing anyone else for as long as I can help it.
That would be even worse than the aggregate LF OPS from '07.
What’s the word for the opposite of good again? Ah, yes: Antidisungood.
by The Actual El Guapo on Mar 3, 2010 7:03 PM CST up reply actions
No question.
For a corner outfielder, especially one who is quite likely to be a defensive liability, that is a garbage line. Apologies for being so vague, I was thinking that it was not as bad as what I worry he may do (though I was relatively bullish on him with my projection). My comment added nothing to the conversation, so I should have kept it to myself instead of sounding like an idiot, but it earned me my first smackdown from larry which makes it all worth it as far as I’m concerned.
foody will be in 5 dimensions at once
we can all sit next to him
by e-gus on Mar 3, 2010 4:02 PM CST
Shrooms and humility too -- foody, I want my kids to grow up exactly like you.
Except, you know, without the shrooms part.
by The Actual El Guapo on Mar 3, 2010 7:42 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
why do you hate becoming one with the oversoul?
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
in your time zone til sunday.
no idea how you and hoodie keep up with games / sss.
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
i think the community is pretty smart
at least smarter than pecota.
We suck balls.
Too emotional/loyal. Not gimlet-eyed. Need some more Hebraic dispassion.
I just don’t feel like killing anyone else for as long as I can help it.
the editors did pretty well iirc
plus, the fangraphs fans are 25% too optimistic per Tango. i think we were 10% last year.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
That's why you are editors.
Arrogant bastards, the lot of you.
I just don’t feel like killing anyone else for as long as I can help it.
by winningugly on Mar 3, 2010 7:34 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
FWIW
CommAvg: .311 wOBA
5% knocked off: .296
Fangraphs’ community projection: .316
CHONE: .310
I think we can comfortably use the unadjusted result for this one. Also, we have as many samples for JP as fangraphs has (110 vs. 112).
I do wish Cheat had asked for our guesses for his fielding.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
UZR daddy!
"his ballerness could not be stoped which rose his era to 5.42 "
by Chiburb on Mar 3, 2010 7:03 PM CST via mobile up reply actions 3 recs
I don't think I rec anyone so much whilst shaking my head at the same time.
In Seattle, a resigned sigh escapes the lips of a foul-mouthed angel. ~wu
by homesickalien on Mar 4, 2010 9:44 AM CST up reply actions
er.
should note that the SSS projection DOES NOT include SB/CS numbers. so you should read that as “assuming he breaks even with SBs”. this isn’t a problem with CHONE since it has him breaking even, but the Fans have him around 80%.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
they're optimistic
not a surprise.
by* how much do you think he’ll be worse than Pods?
*concerted effort was made to not end with a preposition. plz make a note of it.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
ah
the g-form says otherwise
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
i didn't understand correctly what the cheat was getting at when he posted the question.
didn’t see his clarification in the comments. if it’s 2010 pierre v. 2010 pods, it’s pierre.
Let me be the first to say
the “correction” is a stupid idea, always was and continues to be. If you asked me what I thought Pierre was going to do times .95, I would have given you that. The standard deviations are fine, especially for someone with so much data.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
5% is too much, then.
With as much data as Pierre’s career provides, and considering that this projection is about in line with what you would expect from the last three seasons, the projection is fair. This is with the built-in disclaimer that Pierre is a year older. The standard deviations account for any correction that would be necessary.
It isn’t like it’s Josh Fields where our projections were all in the upper percentile of possible outcomes.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 3, 2010 7:49 PM CST up reply actions
5% is too much
because it’s an entire standard deviation in this case.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
Tango is pro correction, fwiw
and if the population is systematically biased, which is not a bad assumption, it makes perfect sense.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
I'm pro correction, but I'm not willing (or able) to do the in depth study needed to accurately employ a correction
So I’ll just continue with the 5% with the caveat that it’s unscientific
Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
SouthSideSox on Facebook
well if you do enough of them
you’ll eventually be able to figure out what the correct adjustment is. you should go back over past community results and compare.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
sounds good to me
modifier gets me off the hook
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
damnit
fuck this seat-of-your-pants bullshit. step up, india!
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
Screw it...
I’m gonna start following Cricket.
by South Side Expat on Mar 3, 2010 9:46 PM CST up reply actions
my predictions for pierre are pretty much nearly exactly the community average projections, i think.
Cashing checks and having sex.
No, not at all.
In Seattle, a resigned sigh escapes the lips of a foul-mouthed angel. ~wu
by homesickalien on Mar 4, 2010 9:58 AM CST up reply actions
Way to go out on a limb.
Just a Rip-off of the Actual El Guapo, but a fake not funny one.
by DrEmilioLizardo on Mar 4, 2010 12:23 PM CST up reply actions
thinking about heading to palm springs for easter. anyone know of any really good places to stay out there?
Cashing checks and having sex.
well, at least one definition is correct.
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
Wondered why the May review popped up on the rr for Pierre....
…….After the Toronto sweep on May 18th even the most hardened Sox fan had to feel at least mildly concerned with what was going on with the team.
Consider the first 15 games of May.
5/1-5/17:
The team batted .227/.287/.344 Wow. I have heard of bad streaks but that line makes Juan Pierre look like Superman. The starting pitching during that frame, 2-9 7.29 ERA. Take that. It added up to a 4-11 start to the month (how did we win 4) and visions of 07 and a Baseball Prospectus “I told you so.”
"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer
Couldn't find a good picture for 'worse'
So I settled on ‘Baby Poo Green’
White Sox fan; Jeppson's Malort man
by KarkoviceIsHawt on Mar 3, 2010 10:42 PM CST reply actions 5 recs
Also known as 'packer green'
"You actually talk about me to your wife??? I love it.!"
by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 3, 2010 11:21 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
by colintj on Mar 3, 2010 10:47 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Wrong
White Sox fan; Jeppson's Malort man
by KarkoviceIsHawt on Mar 3, 2010 10:54 PM CST up reply actions
He was the best on Heartbreak Hotel.
Acting like a badass while Shawn Michaels kicked people in the face.
Taj Gibson is the face of Bulls basketball!
by Trey23 on Jan 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 3, 2010 11:12 PM CST up reply actions
from what i can remember he always wears super loose jerseys
If the woman is offering an opinion, you are doing it wrong. - HSA
plus we get the artist formerly known as consecutive 10-gold glove CF'er A. Jones playing
ta daaaa, CF this afternoon. At a weight approximately 80lbs heavier….
Should be uhm, interesting to see, uhm, if he has any range left.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Mar 4, 2010 7:41 AM CST up reply actions
What the projection doesn't account for....
is Pierre getting in the pitcher’s head while being on the base path ala Timo Perez.
best case scenario
is Juan Juan does a 300/340/380 line for three months and then Adam Dunn comes over for Kenny WIlliams Jr and Jeff “fully healthy” Marquez.
Oh wait, Jim Bowden no longer runs the Nats? Scratch that. We’re doomed.
I've
seen mentioned here a few times that some think Juan Pierre will be a below average corner outfielder. Why would you think that? His UZR over 178 games in LF is + 6.4/150 games with last year being the better year. He’s only played 33 games in CF the last two years where he’s been below average (very small sample size).
The last time he played CF regularly was 2007 and he was a slightly below average CF then (slightly above average by fielding bible, slightly below by UZR including arm). His speed number is essentially unchanged. Although he’s unlikely to repeat his 16.4/150 games UZR of last year, he should still be a plus defender. Chone projects him +3.7, but apparently with sig CF playing time. I’m thinking +5-8 as a LF. And yes I know about his arm, it’s just that his range apparently makes up for his arm, at least in lf.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
Well if plus
LF is Carl Crawford then yeah that’s pushing it. But I feel pretty comfortable with “above average” though.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
i know what you mean by plus.
because you told me what you mean by it. above average, plus, whatever. i don’t think so.
Ok then
I think you’re wrong. CHONE is projecting +3.7, I’m projecting +5. Larry is projecting 0? We’ll come back to this at the end of the year.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
i think his range will continue to decline. i don't really like the trends regarding speed.
i tend to punish aging players who rely on speed. perhaps pierre is an exception.
Interesting
That’s right you put more emphasis on stolen base percentage right? His speed score last year was his highest in 4 years. But that appears to be mostly because of his increase in triples. Of course he had an abnormally low (for him) number of triples in 2008.
What else are you looking at for speed trends? BABIP?
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
i also look at attempts.
babip doesn’t strike me as a very good measure. i basically use the same factors that the various kinds of speed scores use but i weigh them differently. age becomes a big driver for me when a player gets to 32/33. he’s just not really an “instinctual” defender so he relies more on his speed than “technique”.
i don’t think we’re really far off. if i was actually going to be pinned to a number, i’d probably say +1 and i always prefer to use ranges instead so -1 to +2 is probably where i’d be. if you’re going to project +5, i see that as being reasonably because he may stave off that speed decline for another year. the top end of the range you originally stated seems aggressive to me.
Sounds reasonable.
If I had to put a UZR range on paper I’d go with +3- +7/150. So, to be clear, my +5 is +5/150 g.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
Agree with this.
He’ll be fine in left. Not good. Not bad. And ever so often we’ll be reminded of the noodle arm when he throws a four bouncer to AJ with a runner coming home.
well, he may be no great shakes
but dye was so horrid defensively, i think pierre is an improvement overall.
well
that’s a little different. Pierre is likely to be a 2-3 win improvement on Dye defensively. Of course he gives 1-2 of those back on offense.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
I ask out of ignorance, not disagreement:
Is the thinking that the difference between an average/maybe slightly above average fielding LF and a bad fielding RF is really 2-3 wins? Does that mean the difference between a great fielding LF (assuming such a creature existed) and bad fielding RF is in the neighborhood of 5-6 wins? Just intuitively, this seems inflated to me given the relative insignificance of the position …
Granted, different positions, but do I have to re-evaluate my stance on Mark Grace vs. Frank Thomas?
by The Actual El Guapo on Mar 4, 2010 1:51 PM CST up reply actions
basically.
dye was really bad. to make it simple, he was worth negative 20 runs on defense (RF and LF are considered about the same for position adjustments). an average defender would be worth 0 runs on defense. a great defender would be worth plus 20 runs. so i’d put it at about 40 runs or about 4 wins. between a hypothetical great LF defender and dye (looking solely at defense).
and, regarding grace and thomas, sort of. while i agreed in principal that comparing the two players is a little ridiculous (especially in the manner that guy did), grace was a pretty good player. your comparison of sandberg to guillen in response was a bit much (but i thought the hyperbole was warranted). iirc, the gap in career WAR between thomas and grace is 76 to 47, while sandberg and guillen is 63 to 16. when you get around to 50 WAR, you’re starting to talk HOF.
yes
and that proverbial great LF does exist. His name is Carl Crawford: JD last two years fielding -39.4 runs (about 4 wins). Crawford: +37.2 runs (about 4 wins). So an 8 win spread over 2 years or 4 wins per year. But again we’re talking the difference between the very best full-time corner outfielder in baseball and the very worst.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
yeah some people
just point to his arm and forget about range. I feel confortable with neutral to slightly above avg. More importantly, a player like Pods will sometimes have range and “score” decent overall in UZR but that says nothing for the fans watching his ass misplay a ball badly in the 8th or 9th inning of a close ball game. UZR doesn’t exactly have a leverage component does it? I’ll rest easier with a Pierre, Rios & Jones “prevent” defense in the 9th.
"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer
.
fans watching his ass misplay a ball badly in the 8th or 9th inning of a close ball game
or after 14 and 2/3 innings of perfection
Hell Yesss
by Grinder Rule #42 on Mar 4, 2010 1:29 PM CST up reply actions
buehrle walked casilla
and span singled before pods butchered that fly ball.
you are certainly one of the more ridiculous people on this board. ~ larry
eh, woops...
i didnt, see that game either, just the highlights. i guessed i coulda looked it up though. i just knew that he passed jenksies on the # of batters retired.
Hell Yesss
by Grinder Rule #42 on Mar 4, 2010 1:48 PM CST up reply actions
That really will be nice..
I felt like any time the other team had a man on base, the pitcher basically had to get a strike out b/c our OF was just so awful you couldn’t trust them. I’m sure they actually lost only a couple of games all season b/c of the bad outfield defense, but as a fan it was not easy to watch.
by Grinder in Training on Mar 4, 2010 1:44 PM CST up reply actions
Who uses mlb.com
to watch the sox?
is it worth it/is the streaming good? i dont have cable, so i was thinking of purchasing it, and streaming it through the wii. any suggestions?
Hell Yesss
by Grinder Rule #42 on Mar 4, 2010 2:35 PM CST reply actions
i do, yes, use a computer as HD requires extra software / haven't tried on consoles.
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
GM rankings
9. Ken Williams, Chicago White Sox
For someone regarded even by many of his own team’s fans as somewhere between daft and clueless, Williams certainly has a habit of making killer trades, identifying undervalued players and putting together winning ballclubs. His basic philosophy of running out an 85-win team every year in the expectation that in its better years it will be a serious pennant contender is a bit strange for a big city team in a small-town division, but he has a World Series ring and several division flags that say it works.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tim_marchman/03/03/gm.rankings/index.html
man i dig this article
An underrated element is my dislike for your favorite team, which is why I ranked the guy running the shop so low when he obviously deserves to rate at least above the several fools directly above him on the list, if not even higher.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
that's fair enough
but still, i’m going to disagree with “regarded even by many of his own team’s fans as somewhere between daft and clueless”.
you are certainly one of the more ridiculous people on this board. ~ larry
i'm not exactly the best to ask about this
but my understanding is that the non-saber fans give kenny plenty of grief.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
maybe i'm just being picky, but i think there's a difference between saying
many sox fans disagree with his moves and saying many sox fans think he’s "somewhere between daft and clueless".
maybe with the exception of the very best GM’s i would imagine they all have a bunch of people questioning them.
you are certainly one of the more ridiculous people on this board. ~ larry
like larry says
check out the Score
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
it's how i keep my edge.
like that truck driver who got caught outside st. louis with a bunch of child porn in the cab. when asked why it was there he said it was because it made him so angry it kept him from falling asleep at the wheel.
you are certainly one of the more ridiculous people on this board. ~ larry
by BuehrleMan on Mar 4, 2010 3:36 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Ever read the comments on the Tribune or Sun-Times?
Taj Gibson is the face of Bulls basketball!
by Trey23 on Jan 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 4, 2010 9:11 PM CST up reply actions
sure.
wait. those are real?
you are certainly one of the more ridiculous people on this board. ~ larry
I find it strange that Daniels is ahead of Williams
Considering he’s just working past the damage he did early on. Melvin also has seemed to stagnate.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
Daniels seems a bit out of place, i agree
and he followed up Hart, right? so it’s not like the team was being poorly led prior to his arrival.
after the top 5 though, 6-14 could go in almost any order.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
hendry at 16 and dombrowski at 13 seem like stretches
but the rest feels right
"A brief but trenchant analysis of Scott Podsednik
He’s dogshit."
by NYRoyal on Jan 8, 2010 8:56 AM PST
dombrowski deserves props for his longevity
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
Neyer's rebuttal
But for a nuanced take, you would literally have to make dozens and dozens of phone calls to figure out which of the stupid things were done because (among other possible reasons) the owner demanded it. Everyone inside baseball can tell you about a stupid move ordered by the owner, or a smart move vetoed by the owner. Or vetoed by a layer of administration between the owner and the general manager.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/2609/ranking-all-30-general-managers
can we get a
most meddlesome owners list then?
Drayton McLane is tops, presumably?
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
who knows when mlbn will show the game?
i know its on tape-delay, but i dont know when its being shown. i wanna go to the bar and watch it!
If the woman is offering an opinion, you are doing it wrong. - HSA
i know this, as im not an internet tard
im just pretty lazy when i can be and thought someone would know
If the woman is offering an opinion, you are doing it wrong. - HSA
ugh, its on at 10 tonight. (ct)
fuck, i was really excited to watch the sox and get a little drink
If the woman is offering an opinion, you are doing it wrong. - HSA
if you're lazy,
it’s less to work to type ‘mlb network’ into the google and click on the link to their tv schedule than to post 30 words on it here.
by larry on Mar 4, 2010 3:27 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
recd for counting the amount of words i typed
and subsequently making me count them.
If the woman is offering an opinion, you are doing it wrong. - HSA
well, count it, theres 30!
If the woman is offering an opinion, you are doing it wrong. - HSA
by BoeJouma on Mar 4, 2010 3:33 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
he just knows...
RIP Jim Thome 1-25-2010
an AL team not having a DH is like a giraffe fucking a mule. - larry
maybe it's just a cry for help, maybe he wants you to respond instead just to know you're there
signature
i couldve just said "hey guys"
and i might have gotten more attention though
If the woman is offering an opinion, you are doing it wrong. - HSA
by BoeJouma on Mar 4, 2010 3:32 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
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