How well do Ks and BBs predict RA?
Really really well.
almost 2 years ago
colintj
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is it assumed that the absolute difference between Ks and BB's is more informative than the ratio (which is what I typically observe)?
by onlysoxfaninbasel on Mar 9, 2010 4:06 AM CST reply actions
no, the BB and K numbers he uses are per PA
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
man these stat guys
figure out the darndest things.
The best part of that math exercise was the rant on ERA (in comments):
Actually, ER is stupid and silly and ridiculous. And I’m being nice. I see no point to its existence in this day and age.
When we look at runs allowed, it’s a combination of pitching and fielding. When we look at ER, it’s a combination of pitching and fielding and capriciousness and illogic, and bias in that a GB pitcher allows more unearned runs than a FB pitcher.
When we want to do our mappings of inputs to outputs, the inputs (hits, walks, SO, HR, batted ball, etc) all lead to RUNS. ER is something made up that means nothing.
Finally, if you look at year-to-year stats of pitchers who change teams, the fielding component will cancel out (given enough pitchers). And so, the flimsiest of reasons to have ER goes away, and again, all we care about is runs.
I can’t tell you the distaste I have for ER.
"April showers bring May flowers and May flowers bring mathematical elimination day to Kansas City".--- Joe Pos
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