Freddy Garcia Community Projection Results
by The Cheat on Mar 9, 2010 1:14 PM CST
81 comments
So I sort of biffed this projection a bit by not bothering to include a section for your screen name. Thankfully, you didn't anonymously fill the form with bullshit data. Unfortunately, now the resulting data is even less interesting to look at.
Pitching also provides a bit of a complex area when trying to come up with a range of performances. Simply adding or subtracting the Standard Deviation doesn't really work, since some stats trend up and others down with poor performance. I'm not too bothered by that because the main thing we're after is run-prevention, and I can plug in your pitcher controlled stats (BB, K, HR) to output a FIP ERA for a more accurate community projection.
I'll get a few more of these going (that I promise not to screw up) in the next couple of days
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looks about right
obviously I think we’d all be happy with that. I’m slightly optimistic on Freddy. I think he’ll benefit from what should be a better defense and by the time the ball is really flying out of the park in late June hopefully he’s about ready to move into the Bullpen and yield to Hudson.
If Freddy does that
why do you think he would move to the bullpen and yield anything?
"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer
i do my projection in a vacuum I guess
maybe it’s a poor method, it might be. If FG is tiring and Hudson is firing than in the dog-days of summer I’d like to see a switch.
that’s all. I think FG is more likely to fall out of favor due to performance than injury, in general. But who knows, it’s a 5th starter spot, somtimes one kind of crap is better than your other kind of crap.
i'd be happy with 22 starts and a FIP like that from a 5th starter
by onlysoxfaninbasel on Mar 9, 2010 1:30 PM CST reply actions
yeah, a little rosy
but adjust the FIP to the cell (though admittedly that’s already factored into the projections) and you’ll end up closer to 5.
Twitter: @SouthSideCheat
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i would definitely take that.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
who else
you plan on doing cheat?
Hell Yesss
by Grinder Rule #42 on Mar 9, 2010 2:29 PM CST reply actions
I don't get all the <70 IP predictions
Someone even had 31. You expect him to get hurt and or just largely be ineffective? Hell he threw 56 inning for them last year.
"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer
i don't think you're going too far out on a limb there, either.
i’m guessing they give him more innings to go beyond a doubt, so i could see freddy being a nightmare for the sox.
Cashing checks and having sex.
My worry is that after Garcia gets the nod early (and often)
He ends up ineffective and they pull him for a Hudson that isn’t quite ready yet, and then get’s pulled and Sweaty Freddy is reinserted, thus beginning a nasty cycle of <Masset.
Reporter: I was wondering if at any point in my lifetime the Cubs weren't going to be run by a guy who didn't immediately remind me of failure, confusion, or imminent death
i think they consider the 4 man rote if that happens
and/or Kenny finds his big fish.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
We'll see, Garcia
was effective last year. Some of his stats mirrors 06 with more junk of course. He’s already started the transition to old pitcher skills. At this point I just don’t see justification for all the gloom and doom on a performance basis.
"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer
Don't get me wrong, I have every hope for the best
but if I had a worry re: this pitching staff, it would be that
Reporter: I was wondering if at any point in my lifetime the Cubs weren't going to be run by a guy who didn't immediately remind me of failure, confusion, or imminent death
Fatolo Colon didn't do enough to damage your thesis last year?
OK, PPB. GARCIA and who vs. what 2 over-the-hill white guys? We’;; do this ever year until you finally pay me.
;)
Jim Leyritz- Didn’t like him as a player and then he killed that broad driving drunk.
Nope.
Push. He refused to yield on the premise that we had NOT limited records to Sox performance. Since Count, Penny, and Smoltz were all traded, etc. it mattered.
Jim Leyritz- Didn’t like him as a player and then he killed that broad driving drunk.
fucking lawyer.
In Seattle, a resigned sigh escapes the lips of a foul-mouthed angel. ~wu
by homesickalien on Mar 9, 2010 8:51 PM CST up reply actions
next you will be telling me you can have a president with a majority of the popular vote
Just making up shit to keep a brother down :-)
"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer
isn't that an appropriate bias?
dude needs impeccable control.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
You mean like less than 2 walks per 9?
Sure he has some trends (like hr rate) unlikely to continue but he has other factors in his limited time that were positive. As I said he seems to be making the transition to some of the old pitcher skills and its no stretch to think he would have guile to pull that off. Less fly balls. A reasonable control ratio. Seems to me my bias is a little more likely than a blanket junk ball one. The projection systems agree.
"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer
im just saying id expect an injury before extreme
poor performance
"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer
the projection systems don't know anything about his fastball and he
hasn’t even made 150 IP over the last three seasons combined. he’s probably getting projected like he is thanks to the fact that they regress him to the mean of major league pitchers. perhaps the most relevant fact is that the Sox expect him to be their 5th starter for some period of time. i’m not expecting him to implode. i really haven’t decided what to expect. i’m rethinking some of my brushing up on post about him, anyway.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
using a K and BB only FIP* (for simplicity)
there’s plenty to like there. the worry is that he no longer has the requisite BABIP skill that all major league pitchers possess. that’s the case in which he implodes. i don’t know if 50 IP in 2009 told us that.
- FIP = 5.75 + 12.5*(BB-K)/PA
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
I don't even know if he needs any extraordinary skill
Fangraphs recently posted a article that still had Garcia mirroring his ability to get swinging strikes outside the zone. His BABIP in his short stint was .301 last year. To me Garcia just kind of screams crafty veteran.
"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer
i'm just not sure how we can know one way or the other
just aren’t a ton of observations.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
i think i would peg the O/U at 5.10, fwiw
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
Part of the reason I had him for a decent number of innings
is that he’s on the White Sox now, and he hopefully is over his shoulder problems.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 10, 2010 6:39 PM CST up reply actions
Bartolo had a lot more problems than his arm.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 10, 2010 10:15 PM CST up reply actions
Special empathy for shoulder issues?
Jim Leyritz- Didn’t like him as a player and then he killed that broad driving drunk.
Jhonny Nunez.
"April showers bring May flowers and May flowers bring mathematical elimination day to Kansas City".--- Joe Pos
by Chiburb on Mar 9, 2010 5:40 PM CST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
I was excited about him until I saw his name in the same sentence as Ehren Wasserman
and I lost all interest
Sergios Santos is my homeboy now
RIP Jim Thome 1-25-2010
an AL team not having a DH is like a giraffe fucking a mule. - larry
At the current rate these will be finished by mid April....
Larry are you doing your central division reviews again? I know you have like a job but I enjoyed these last year. On the real. Perhaps you pass the baton to eager colin?
"You're lucky I'm retired"
Jack Bauer
i'll do my best to start getting them out
next week looks ugly for me, but i might get one done this weekend. i’m not going anywhere for spring break, so expect a good chunk of writing in a week and a half
"A brief but trenchant analysis of Scott Podsednik
He’s dogshit."
by NYRoyal on Jan 8, 2010 8:56 AM PST
didn't i do central division reviews? and i thought UG does the in-season ones?
i don’t remember at all. damn roofies.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
So linkfully helpful, you are!
In Seattle, a resigned sigh escapes the lips of a foul-mouthed angel. ~wu
by homesickalien on Mar 10, 2010 10:16 AM CST up reply actions
Don't forget!
My 2010 predictions sheet will be out at the end of March! I know you are looking forward to it!
Kenwo4life=ratings
u guys probably know this already...
saw it just now.
Tests on Joe Nathan’s right throwing elbow have revealed a significant tear in the ulnar collateral ligament, an injury that could require season-ending Tommy John surgery. Nathan’s 246 saves over six seasons are the most in the majors during that span.
Twins are done for the rest of the year
"You actually talk about me to your wife??? I love it.!"
by Where Triples Go to Die on Mar 9, 2010 10:54 PM CST up reply actions
are you kidding me, I love it!
“I can see why this team has never won in a 100 years” = priceless
(that quote was from last season btw)
RIP Jim Thome 1-25-2010
an AL team not having a DH is like a giraffe fucking a mule. - larry
man, this thread is absolutely riveting.
If the woman is offering an opinion, you are doing it wrong. - HSA
thinking about making a road trip to pittsburgh this year
june 16th and 17. anyone ever gone to a game there?
Kenwo4life=ratings
phil rogers busting out the comps
No other team in the Central has a trio as predictably dominant as Mauer, Morneau and Nathan. The Tigers are in some ways a two-man army reliant on Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera. The White Sox are less star-driven than either of the other two teams but they would have a hard time winning without strong bounce-back seasons from Jake Peavy and Carlos Quentin.
by onlysoxfaninbasel on Mar 10, 2010 7:08 AM CST reply actions
I suppose he means...
his injury (which, of course, he already bounced back from). But it’s Phil Rogers, so don’t spend too much time trying to figure it out.
yeah, i feel like i've made that comment before
bugs me everytime i see some writer say peavy needs to have a bounce-back season. FPR
when someone asks me "heads or tails?"
i tell them 0.50, R-squred = 1.00
unfortunately, not many people visit me in my parents’ basement.
by Hatchetm on Mar 10, 2010 9:14 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
guy had MVP-type seasons in every full healthy season he had through age 29
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
aside from the 7 other guys who made outs at a lesser rate in 2000, anyway
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
Nomar had a shitty perm and used to tell his teammates how much he loved them?
Best buds with Jerry Reinsdorf? Dies a little inside when he has to praise Phil Jackson and the Triangle Offense?
I don’t get it.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 10, 2010 1:51 PM CST up reply actions
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