Understanding Small Sample Sizes, or Evaluating Talent in April
We talk about small sample sizes frequently here on DRaysBay, so here are the points at which certain statistics become reliable:
Offense Statistics:
* 50 PA: Swing%
* 100 PA: Contact Rate
* 150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
* 200 PA: Walk Rate, Ground Ball Rate, GB/FB
* 250 PA: Fly Ball Rate
* 300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
* 500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
* 550 PA: ISO
Pitching Statistics:
* 150 BF - K/PA, grounder rate, line drive rate
* 200 BF - flyball rate, GB/FB
* 500 BF - K/BB, pop up rate
* 550 BF - BB/PA
about 2 years ago
larry
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Stop it. It doesn't take 50 PA or 100 BF to confirm or deny what my eyes tell me.
Ozzie and Walker have combined to make this a 70 win season. I’ve seen that after 12 games so your stats are meaningless. KW plays a part too.
At least we’ll get a good draft pick. But they’ll fuck that up too.
Sigh…
"April showers bring May flowers and May flowers bring mathematical elimination day to Kansas City".--- Joe Pos
by Chiburb on Apr 17, 2010 7:27 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
so does this mean
that i shouldn’t have dropped victor martinez from my fantasy team and picked up donny lucy?
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
no.
donny lucy is an amazing baseball player. interestingly, he’s also a nobel prize winning physicist.
I find it more interesting
that he is an amazing ballplayer. Physicist, I get that.
I am more prone to be inquisitive to promote discussion.
by winningugly on Apr 17, 2010 11:09 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Pierre, Kotsay, and Teahen have track records
And 2 of those douches will be here for several more years. They suck in April and will suck in September and every month in between. Of course that’s only 1/3 of the lineup. We also have several aging veterans who appear to be regressing, a savior with less than 500 MLB PAs, an injury prone curmudgeon who probably already had his career year and other assorted flotsom and jetsom.
With that lineup 70 wins is about right.
Could be worse. Capitals getting crushed at home by the Habs. I’ll drink to that.
by Duck99 on Apr 17, 2010 7:32 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
fewer, not less.
also, john dewan claims kotsay has a better than 60% chance of a breakout season. (link)
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
Even if Kotsay were to have a break-out season, what exactly would exactly would he be breaking out to?
league average hitter? Yippee!
From this dude's mouth
to God’s ears.
larry. A kind word for everyone.
Why do you bother then?
To follow the Sox or post here?
"April showers bring May flowers and May flowers bring mathematical elimination day to Kansas City".--- Joe Pos
by Chiburb on Apr 17, 2010 7:37 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
perhaps he is need of some sand.
you know, for pounding.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
Because I've been a fan since the early 70s
I didn’t realize you had to drink the Kenny Kool Aid to post an opinion. I didn’t expect last years team to be any good either and they actually made it somewhat interesting for a while. I don’t think that’s the case this year.
by Duck99 on Apr 17, 2010 7:45 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
i'm with you on your its early attitude
but this is quite the ozzie-style ‘go be a cubs fan’ response.
After how many games
does W/L percentage become statistically significant?
Best game I ever attended was the 163rd game of 2008.
by NorthSidePaulie on Apr 17, 2010 7:36 PM CDT reply actions
When you are 20 games back of the Twins
So somewhere around the All Star break.
by Duck99 on Apr 17, 2010 7:39 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
well, there are a few ways to answer this question.
but one problem with simply using win percentage over the course of a season is difference in personnel. that’s why it’s better to just use player projections aggregated to figure out how you think a team will do over the course of the rest of a season.
My favorite part is their omission of BA.
Okay. Okay. We get it. You don’t like the BA stat. Lets get the Teapartiers to take up the cause. No more taxes. No more BA in the newspaper.
it's not an "omission"
BA is not significantly significant over the number of plate appearances a player has in a season.
I get that,
but I like that the statnerd felt the need to point out why it wasn’t used, for the pedestrian idiot dinosaurs who might think it’s significant.
Notice that statistics like BA and ERA don’t stabilize over the course of a full season; this is a great example of why one shouldn’t use those statistics to discuss a player’s ability level.
And Greedo didn’t shoot first. I didn’t mention it, because it’s not relevant.
then you didn't mean "omission"
and i don’t think it’s weird to point out that some stats don’t stabilize over the course of a season. i doubt that most people know that.
way off topic, this cardinal-mets game is hyphy. going to the 15th. no score.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
ain't it purty? going to the 16th now following a puntoslide!
mets batting average for the season has dropped 20 points this game, down to .226. i think that’s still higher than the sox though. :(
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
also jimenez for colorado with a no no starting the 8th at atlanta.
1 out. he has thrown 106 pitches. wonder if they’ll let him go 9 if he still has it.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
he did it! 128 pitches.
i swear i heard some atlanta “fans” booing. nice.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
He was throwing 98 in the ninth.
From the stretch.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
he walked 6, the last of which was the first batter of the 5th.
apparently he stayed in the stretch thereafter.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
17th inning now.
puntoslide by david wright. and safe. everyone getting desperate.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
reyes, bay, and francouer
all 0 for 7. that could be a record.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
this game is hilarious
kyle lohse in LF, felipe lopez pitched an inning, joe mather in line to get the loss… would ozzie have forfeited by now?
by whitesoxjohn on Apr 17, 2010 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions
felipe lopez
now pitching for the cards in the 18th inning of a 0-0 game.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
i thought that dude was safe at 2nd.
oh well.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
please please please
cardinals, don’t score this inning.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
YES
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
mets just sac bunted with reyes on 1st no out and the cards using their 2nd position player pitching.
jerry manuel!
(ozzie wouldn’t do that, would he?)
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
i think some people seem to think that jose reyes is the jose reyes of 2007.
he ain’t gonna steal bases very well no more.
really? not even off a non pitcher?
anyway, i was thinking more that mather wasn’t going to throw strikes or get the batter out.
this is entertaining.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
do you want your recently very injured and not running very well but still very important player to your team running at full speed after playing the equivalent of two games?
i doubt that was the thought process. but it should have been.
that doesn't mean you sacrifice.
but i saw about 5 different tweets asking why they didn’t just have him steal.
i really didn't think about it much
but i guess i just thought if reyes was healthy enough to play he could run well enough to steal there.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
i assume you've been watching the game.
does he look like he’s the same player he was before his injury to you?
He was being held out for thyroid issues.
I don’t see how that having him steal is an issue.
I am more prone to be inquisitive to promote discussion.
by winningugly on Apr 18, 2010 10:14 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
you don't see how a player who had two significant leg injuries that caused him to play only 36 games last season would be having issues with his legs.
how many times do we need to go over leg injuries and their effect on players who rely on speed before it sinks in?
He is not having leg issues this year.
Poor example, perhaps, but Pods has had leg issues on and off for years and seems to be doing fine this year. If Reyes is being held out for thyroid issues perhaps his legs are not the issue. I’d defer,as do you, to the one who knows best, who generally would be Manuel.
I am more prone to be inquisitive to promote discussion.
1 run won't win this game.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
dude covered first well.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
this game gives a new meaning
to “enjoy your run.”
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
how are all; you guys watching this?
Im following along, but not on tv
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
fox
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
(it started at 3 pm. this is the game i got instead of the white sox down here in urbana)
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
I was actually thinking all 3 other games were probably going to be better ones.
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
thanks for this
btw
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
i want to see a 2 run bomb on k-rod, mather with the W
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
lol
with Pujols up!
what a 8===0
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
brian anderson would have caught that.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
eli marrero.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
Lohse!
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
rooting for a wild pitch......
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
yes! yes! a million times yes!
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
mistake pitching to molina
he’s clutch. unlike thome.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
AAAAAAAAAHHHHAAAAAAA!!
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
when did Lohse last pitch?
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
I think I would have put him in there for the 20th
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
i dunno what the cardinals do for their side days etc.
if lohse already threw, well, i dunno. this is such uncharted territory.
i'd say run expectancy in this situation
is out the window.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
mets=cheating bastards
only using pitchers to pitch.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
psssssssshhhh
i’m pretty sure pods could have caught that.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
I LOVE THIS GAME
LET’S GET A RUN!!!!!!!!
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
how much do you have to suck to score your only 2 runs off of a position player that cant throw strikes
and the only way you scored those were a sac fly and a misplayed bunt?
634 pitches!
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
i feel a cardinal victory coming on.....
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
yeah he should have gone 2
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
the cardinals' bullpen
really blew this game.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
winning run at the plate!
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
yeah but his name is Skip.
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
i would pitch around ludwick
to get to pujols.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
yeah, i want a few more innings of baseball porn before the money shot.
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
splat.
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
was it good for you baby?
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
see? the mets batting average was .146 for that game and they won!
don’t tell me what you hit, tell me when you hit it.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
SSS etc
but this isn’t working out too well so far.
RumpelOzzie demanded the type of players who could supposedly spin gold from straw, stats be damned. KW gave him exactly what he wanted, so in a way I guess this start is a good thing in putting this manufacturing runs BS to bed. Yesterday was exactly the kind of game that this team was supposed to scratch out a win, there’s been a few others where they couldn’t pull a run or two out of their ass.
Lots of teams having attendance problems so there should be payroll dumping happening soon. Problem is the Sox can ’t take on anything else. It would suck having to witness this offense for a full season.
No animals were harmed during the making of this comment.
Damon Money. It's there.
i don't fuck corned beef.
which is why i don’t eat at subway. by larry on Mar 17
by South Side Expat on Apr 18, 2010 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Seems kind of wierd for some to be making grand statements on the season
in a thread Larry post info on understanding sample sizes. Still I understand the frustration. Hell I went and played golf yesterday at the start of the game. 1st time out this year shot a 94.
The Twins hot start is probably the icing on the cake as folks see the team sliding further back and quickly.
A few things.
1) This is not a 70 win team. Stop it. The pitching staff is still very good and with the potential of the bullpen will probably be great. The team has lost every game in which they scored 3 or less, which believe it or not IS weird. But hey sample size.
2) Speaking of 3 runs the team does need to score more than that. I wish they would fire Walker (no a batting coach is usually not the problem, but lets end this already) Somebody should be the sacrificial lamb. Ozzie likes changing the lineup well he can certainly do a few things to help right away. I’d bat Beckham leadoff and put Teahan second. He’s drawn 8 walks this year and seems to be patient right now. Rios needs to bat 5th and Jones really should start every day right now in left field.
3) Don’t get carried away with hot starts. Last year on April 18th.
Toronto was 9-4 in 1st in the AL
KC was 7-4 in first in the central
Florida was 10-1 and running away with the NL East.
Phils were 5.5 out with a -16 run differential.
Cubs were 7-4 and Bradley was sane.
San Diego was 9-3 tied atop the NL West.
Yes Minnesota is a good team but its not like they will play .750 ball forever.
Man it sure would be nice to see some of that sss luck on our side though…….
"Anywhere white people are poor, I'm afraid to go" Lawrence Holmes 670 the Score
by Tdogg on Apr 18, 2010 9:01 AM CDT reply actions 3 recs
wrecked.
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
by thatshortkid on Apr 18, 2010 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions
You suck at golf.
OT for e-gus, and of course especially larry: My 7 y/o daughter is carrying her purse through the airport this AM and complaining how heavy it is. The wife tells her it’ll build up arm strength. Kid says her gymnastics coach has nicknamed her “noodles” because her arms are so skinny. ROFL.
All of you at the meetup will understand.
I am more prone to be inquisitive to promote discussion.
by winningugly on Apr 18, 2010 10:20 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Are you making fun of larry's briefcase again?
It’s called a lawyerbag. Indiana Jones’ attorney carries one.
I think for the 1st time out in a year and half Im fine with that.
"Anywhere white people are poor, I'm afraid to go" Lawrence Holmes 670 the Score
Who likes to party
Pierre lf, Beckham 2b, Kotsay rf, Konerko 1b, A.J. c, Rios cf, Teahen dh, Vizquel 3b, Ramirez ss, Floyd p
signature
Crap
Kotsay in RF? Q! not DHing?, Pierre leading off again. All crap
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Apr 18, 2010 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions
.
These events have me frightened and on the verge of evacuating my bowels.
by thatshortkid on Apr 18, 2010 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions
i predict kotsay
will be hawk’s pick to click.
celebrate the 27th anniversary of the tirade with me on april 29th. my favorite holiday, lee elia day. a day filled with baseball and swearing.
It wouldn't shock me if Linebrink
were traded straight up for Big Papi (and the RSOX threw some money our way for the 2010 season)……….not saying I’d like this, but just saying I don’t think it’s that far-fetched.
arent you supposed to say that theres no way the Sox trade Liney?
"the worst thing about this team is going to be the manager." - Ozzie Guillen, USA Today Sports Weekly
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