Okay, so we are 13 games into the season and the Sox are currently sitting at 4-9.  If the Sox continue on their current pace they would finish the season at 72-90.  So I guess it's time to start panicing, right?  Well, not necessarily.  A deeper look into some stats show that the Sox are simply on the wrong side of variance, as some would say.  Pythagorean expecation would project a team with a run differentail of -2, as the Sox currently have, to be at or close to .500.  To put things in perspective Toronto has a run differential of -1 yet their record is a respectable 7-6 and Boston who is also 4-9 has a run diffential of -19.  So clearly, the Sox are not a 4-9 team.

Another good indicator of luck is BABIP of which the Sox currently sport a hearty .228.  Not surprisingly, this is last in baseball.  True their LD% is 17.2 which puts them in the bottom 5 but that doesn't explain how their BABIP is 62 points worse than the league average of .290.  

Basically, I believe a lot of this can be attributed to bad luck.  I realize it's only been 13 games and  I suppose there is a chance that the Sox will continue to under perform their stats.  Maybe they really are a 72 win team.  Maybe this team that KW constructed is only good for a .228 BABIP.  Maybe Ozzie really is the worst manager this side of Jerry Manuel.   Maybe I'm just cherry-picking some meaningless stats just to assuage my fears.  However, I like to take solace in the idea, at least for now, that the Sox are simply victims of bad luck.   I guess you can call me a glass-is-half-full kind of guy.