Okay, so we are 13 games into the season and the Sox are currently sitting at 4-9. If the Sox continue on their current pace they would finish the season at 72-90. So I guess it's time to start panicing, right? Well, not necessarily. A deeper look into some stats show that the Sox are simply on the wrong side of variance, as some would say. Pythagorean expecation would project a team with a run differentail of -2, as the Sox currently have, to be at or close to .500. To put things in perspective Toronto has a run differential of -1 yet their record is a respectable 7-6 and Boston who is also 4-9 has a run diffential of -19. So clearly, the Sox are not a 4-9 team.Another good indicator of luck is BABIP of which the Sox currently sport a hearty .228. Not surprisingly, this is last in baseball. True their LD% is 17.2 which puts them in the bottom 5 but that doesn't explain how their BABIP is 62 points worse than the league average of .290.
Basically, I believe a lot of this can be attributed to bad luck. I realize it's only been 13 games and I suppose there is a chance that the Sox will continue to under perform their stats. Maybe they really are a 72 win team. Maybe this team that KW constructed is only good for a .228 BABIP. Maybe Ozzie really is the worst manager this side of Jerry Manuel. Maybe I'm just cherry-picking some meaningless stats just to assuage my fears. However, I like to take solace in the idea, at least for now, that the Sox are simply victims of bad luck. I guess you can call me a glass-is-half-full kind of guy.