Carlos Quentin Is A Hacker
by BuehrleMan on Apr 3, 2010 5:41 PM CDT
Email
PrintNot that there's anything wrong with that.
When Carlos Quentin first came over to the White Sox all I really knew about him was that he was a top prospect, he had been injured a few times, he had a high on base percentage in the minors and he got hit by pitches a lot. (Although I didn't realize just how much impact all those HBPs had on his OBP**) I assumed he was a patient hitter. I was wrong.
Sometime early last season I, among other people, noticed that it seemed Q had a penchant for swinging at the first pitch. As the season progressed, other than making the occasional comment about it, I did not attempt to verify this observation. Sometime just before his return from the disabled list (on July 20th) I decided I would look into it.
I kept track of Q's plate appearances from July 20th through the end of the season. With some additional research on baseball-reference.com not only did I confirm that observation to be true, I ran across a few other numbers I found interesting which I will present after the jump...
Now let's not bicker and argue about small sample sizes. It is what it is.
Let's start with his first pitch swing percentage numbers
In 2008, Q swung at the first pitch 36% of the time. (MLB average was 28%)
In 2009, Q swung at the first pitch 41% of the time. (MLB average was 26%)
2009, however, breaks down this way: In 156 PAs before he hit the DL, he swung at the first pitch 48.1% of the time. In 243 PAs after the DL he swung at the first pitch 37% of the time. (See? 48.1% is Vladimir Guerrero territory. He was swinging at the first pitch an awful lot at the beginning of last year! (Maybe because of his injury. Hard to say for certain.))
When he swung at the first pitch, in either year, he did just fine.
2008 .382/.421/.831 (MLB avg .337/.342/.546)
2009 .277/.338/.492 (MLB avg .339/.345/.558)
A brief disclaimer here: As I discovered recently on Baseball-Reference.com on this page, in 2009, on only 3 of the 12 possible counts a batter can face was the average OPS for MLB batters under .800. (Those counts are 0-2, 1-2 and 2-2)
How about looking at his numbers on the second pitch
2008 Q on 0-1 .292/.333/.479 (MLB avg .315/.324/.475)
2009 Q on 0-1 .333/.368/.806 (MLB avg .317/.325/.482)
2008 Q on 1-0 .383/.396/.1.021 (MLB avg .339/.340/.558)
2009 Q on 1-0 .343/.361/.600 (MLB avg .340/.341/.564)
Carlos Quentin and the catbird seat
One anomaly I noticed was Q's record on a 2-0 count in 2009. Look:
2008 Q saw 86 2-0 counts in 569 PAs on 2-0 .429/.429/.929 (MLB avg .355/.353/.622)
2009 Q saw 44 2-0 counts in 399 PAs on 2-0 .111/.100/.111 (MLB avg .368/.366/.667)
What is interesting (to me anyway) is not how poorly Q hit on 2-0 in 2009, but the fact that he saw 26.67% fewer 2-0 counts relative to his plate appearances in 2009 than he did in 2008. The MLB average in 2009 for batters seeing a 2-0 count was 15%. In 2009 Q saw a 2-0 count in only 11% of his plate appearances. (I don't think I'd be going out on a limb to say it is obvious that the more 2-0 counts a batter sees the better off he will be. Q's miserable line on 2-0 in 2009 notwithstanding, his numbers after 2-0 in 2009 were .241/.477/.483 which was pretty reasonable but a bit below the MLB average line after 2-0 in 2009 which was .293/.521/.502.)
Carlos Quentin after returning from the disabled list
Now we've arrived at my specialty. I didn't need any fancy computers to gather this data, I did it the old fashioned way, with my eyes. And a pen and paper. (Okay, if you want to get technical about it I probably did not watch about 5 to 10 games and for those I had to rely on MLB gameday)
The following numbers are from July 20th-October 4th.(61 games and 243 plate appearances, not counting 2 intentional walks except when specifically noted)
- 892 pitches seen. 3.67 pitches per plate appearance.
- .239/.358/.454 (including the 2 intentional walks)
- 37% first pitch swinging.
- On first pitch 13/36, 4 HBP, 2 doubles, 3 home runs. .361/.472/.667
- On second pitch 16/42, 2 HBP, 2 doubles, 5 home runs. .381/.423/.786
- Totals on first and second pitch .372/.449/.731
- Totals on all other pitches .164/.307/.300 (including the 2 intentional walks)
- HBP in 2.8% of PAs. (MLB average was .85%)
What's that? You want more numbers?
Jeez, okay. Calm down. I'll just leave you with a few further frivolities.
- In 2009 A.J. Pierzynski was the only non-pitcher on the Sox who saw fewer pitches per plate appearance than Q . 3.29 for AJ, 3.53 for Q
- Gavin Floyd swung at the first pitch in 100% of his plate appearances in 2009.
- Tyler Flowers was the only Sox non-pitcher in 2009 to swing at the first pitch more often than Q. 45% for T-Flo, 41% for Q.
- Over their careers, Q has swung at the first pitch 29% more often than Alfonso Soriano.
- Joe Mauer swung at the first pitch 7% of the time in 2009. (Tied for lowest in baseball with Dustin Pedroia for any player with at least 400 plate appearances. Jamey Carroll was at 6% in 358 PAs)
-
The lowest first pitch swing percentage Frank Thomas had in a full season was 14% in 1991, his first full season.
I really have to stop now
But there's this site that I've heard exists called fangraphs where you can find some more information. This page will tell you all sorts of things. Things like: Q swung at 12.6% more pitches outside the strike zone in 2009 than 2008. His contact rate on those pitches went up 3.9%. (Please note that a lot of really good hitters swing at more pitches out of the zone than Q, but in general their contact rate is better as well. Players like Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera and Ichiro Suzuki). Or that overall he swung at 7.7% more pitches in 2009. His contact rate went up 1% overall. Or that his fly ball percentage went up 9.26% while his HR/FB percentage went down by 28.5% (not that anyone thought he would sustain a 20.7% HR/FB ratio).
I'm afraid this all might be getting a little confusing, at least as far as what I am trying to convey. I guess what I'm saying is that generally speaking, in his White Sox career Q has swung early and often, and when he has he often knocked the crap out of the ball.
OK. I'm done
Good day.
** In his 1092 plate appearances over 3 years at AAA Tuscon Q was hit by 69 pitches. That is 6.3% of the time. The MLB average percentage for being hit by a pitch in 2009 was .85%. If Q was hit at that rate over those 3 years, he would have been hit 9 times. If you were to take away his 69 HBPs and give him 9 instead, then take the remaining 60 PAs and give him close to his average numbers plus a league average HBP% (I gave him a .300 avg and an 11.67 BB% which was 18 hits and 7 BBs and also added 1 HBP) his on base percentage would drop from .424 to .393.
So far, in his Sox career, Q has been hit in "only" 3.6% of his plate appearances.
SouthSideSox is a community driven site. As such, users are able to express their thoughts and opinions in a FanPost, such as this one, which represents the views of this particular fan, but not necessarily the entire community or SouthSideSox editors.
67 comments
|
5 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
cool.
so does this mean we dont have to hear about his first pitch swinging tendencies every at bat in 2010?
unlikely.
old habits die hard.
"I could give two (bleeps) about it," Buehrle said. "I think this whole Facebook, Twitter, all this stuff is ridiculous, if you ask me."
it seems like the more he is in the box the more uncomfortable he gets.
me and Q are similar in that fact. First pitch- sit dead red and rip! I doubt he has the little league titles i have though.
Kenwo4life=ratings
Phew- thanks for clearing that up for me. I have lost a lot of sleep lately wondering about your batting titles....
Boxers or briefs?
When you floss, what do you do with the gunk on the floss?
Just a Rip-off of the Actual El Guapo, but a fake not funny one.
by DrEmilioLizardo on Apr 3, 2010 7:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Fling the flossing gunk against the bathroom mirror and stare at it for a bit, of course.
i don't fuck corned beef.
which is why i don’t eat at subway. by larry on Mar 17
by South Side Expat on Apr 4, 2010 12:15 AM CDT up reply actions
Being a Stanford guy, Q is smart enough to know that pitchers try to get ahead in counts.
He also knows that if he falls behind he’s less likely to have success.
When the pitchers wise up I suspect he’s smart enough to adjust. If he has a healthy season it’d be interesting to see these numbers revisited afterward.
Thx for the work.
"April showers bring May flowers and May flowers bring mathematical elimination day to Kansas City".--- Joe Pos
by Chiburb on Apr 3, 2010 6:25 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
So Wade Boggs was an idiot, I suppose,
never swinging at the first pitch. I think he is so high strung that he comes out of his shoes because he can’t NOT swing. Interesting that AJ, our other pscho, sees as few pitches as Q.
"Enough is enough. This has to change. This was not supposed to happen five or 10 years ago, it is supposed to happen now. Today is my day, this is my time, and this is my moment."
Pierzynski just hardly ever walks.
Quentin tries to destroy the first pitch as much as he can. He might as well, because if he makes contact it will probably go somewhere hard and if he doesn’t it’s 0-1. I’m sure it can be unnerving for non-power pitchers and it probably helps him keep an aggressive mindset.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on Apr 3, 2010 9:05 PM CDT up reply actions
AJ gets 22 a season
it’s in his contract
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
Well done
Although if you provide a triple-slash line for swinging at first pitch, BA should equal OBP
perhaps i worded it incorrectly.it wasn't for swinging at the first pitch,
it was the result if the plate appearance if it only lasted one pitch, so it includes being hit by a pitch which obviously happens to Q relatively frequently.
"I could give two (bleeps) about it," Buehrle said. "I think this whole Facebook, Twitter, all this stuff is ridiculous, if you ask me."
not for Q in 2009.
he only had 2 sac flies. one on a 2-0 count, one on a 1-1 count.
baseball-reference, it exists.
"I could give two (bleeps) about it," Buehrle said. "I think this whole Facebook, Twitter, all this stuff is ridiculous, if you ask me."
I was simply adding to the ways that BA would not equal OBP for first pitch triple slashy lines.
looking at specific data is for people that think things exist.
but sac flies don't count as an AB
just a PA, so wouldn’t affect either BA or OBP.
"I could give two (bleeps) about it," Buehrle said. "I think this whole Facebook, Twitter, all this stuff is ridiculous, if you ask me."
It does affect OBP.
"Enough is enough. This has to change. This was not supposed to happen five or 10 years ago, it is supposed to happen now. Today is my day, this is my time, and this is my moment."
woopsie.
yes, if he had any sac flies on the first pitch it would have affected his OBP. but anyway, he didn’t.
"I could give two (bleeps) about it," Buehrle said. "I think this whole Facebook, Twitter, all this stuff is ridiculous, if you ask me."
*whoopsie
"I could give two (bleeps) about it," Buehrle said. "I think this whole Facebook, Twitter, all this stuff is ridiculous, if you ask me."
y didnt sox sign posednik their best hitter?
by kashmir666 on Apr 3, 2010 8:36 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
"Threw 'em a cookie right there, Stone Pony."
"Qualls took over, and then Konerko took over." - Joe Buck
any chance you can adjust his first pitch tendencies by pitcher quality?
it looks like Chipper Jones does much the same
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/chipper_jones_and_the_first_pitch_strike/
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
i actually also did keep track of pitchers he faced
after he returned from the DL but have not looked into the specifics yet.
"I could give two (bleeps) about it," Buehrle said. "I think this whole Facebook, Twitter, all this stuff is ridiculous, if you ask me."
There's a YouTube Clip of that at bat with Chipper...taking the first pitch right down the pipe
and getting a little angry, then glancing up at the press box.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Apr 3, 2010 11:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Good job, BM.
"Enough is enough. This has to change. This was not supposed to happen five or 10 years ago, it is supposed to happen now. Today is my day, this is my time, and this is my moment."
I enjoy your numbery compilation very much.
that 2-0 suckage in 09 is something I hadn’t noticed at all — if he only fixes that and does everything else the same he’s got a good enough 2010.
well, it is a pretty freaking small sample size
but yeah. Q saw 44 2-0 counts in 2009 and had 1 hit on that count. he swung on 2-0 20 times, had 10 fouls/misses, 1 sac fly, 8 other outs and only 1 hit.
(and i know this now from memory)
"I could give two (bleeps) about it," Buehrle said. "I think this whole Facebook, Twitter, all this stuff is ridiculous, if you ask me."
SSS, but pretty damning,
since it is SO bad.
"Enough is enough. This has to change. This was not supposed to happen five or 10 years ago, it is supposed to happen now. Today is my day, this is my time, and this is my moment."
pretty damning of what?
bad luck?
"Anywhere white people are poor, I'm afraid to go" Lawrence Holmes 670 the Score
1-44 is incredibly bad luck,
or maybe not.
"Enough is enough. This has to change. This was not supposed to happen five or 10 years ago, it is supposed to happen now. Today is my day, this is my time, and this is my moment."
44 pitches?
are you kidding me? c’mon.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
What makes a trend?
How many pitches faced makes a trend? I really want to know.
"Enough is enough. This has to change. This was not supposed to happen five or 10 years ago, it is supposed to happen now. Today is my day, this is my time, and this is my moment."
650 PA is a solid estimate of true talent
that would be about 2500 pitches per season. 44 pitches would be regressed 98% to the mean.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
TY.
"Enough is enough. This has to change. This was not supposed to happen five or 10 years ago, it is supposed to happen now. Today is my day, this is my time, and this is my moment."
Which member of the Twilight wolfpack imprints on me?
I’ll go with Corey. Or are all of them named Corey?
by The Actual El Guapo on Apr 3, 2010 9:21 PM CDT reply actions
wolfpack you say?
the life that was ours grows sharper and stronger away and beyond.
short wheeling, fresh spring
gripped with blanched bones, moaned
magnesium proverbs and sobs.
one of my favorites.
"I could give two (bleeps) about it," Buehrle said. "I think this whole Facebook, Twitter, all this stuff is ridiculous, if you ask me."
Jack Cust DFA'd by the A's. Too bad there probably aren't any teams out there that could use a power hitting DH with a decent OBP.
by The Actual El Guapo on Apr 3, 2010 9:29 PM CDT reply actions
No speed. No glove.
No job.
"Enough is enough. This has to change. This was not supposed to happen five or 10 years ago, it is supposed to happen now. Today is my day, this is my time, and this is my moment."
Good lord, has anyone taken a look at the A's lineup?
They are replacing Cust with Eric Chavez. Their starting 1B is Jake Fox (yes, that Jake Fox). Their best offensive player is … Christ, I don’t know – Kurt Suzuki? Rajai Davis?
You think we have problems? That team could lose 100 games.
by The Actual El Guapo on Apr 3, 2010 10:02 PM CDT up reply actions
apparently A's Nation didn't see the Cust DFA coming
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
Daric Barton
Ryan Sweeney/Mark Ellis
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on Apr 3, 2010 11:33 PM CDT up reply actions
ozzie is prepared.
"I could give two (bleeps) about it," Buehrle said. "I think this whole Facebook, Twitter, all this stuff is ridiculous, if you ask me."
Rumor is it might happen mid year.
larry. A kind word for everyone.
Moneyball.
i don't fuck corned beef.
which is why i don’t eat at subway. by larry on Mar 17
by South Side Expat on Apr 4, 2010 12:19 AM CDT up reply actions
Somewhere along the line the fielding bible became "The Bible"
personally I think its getting a little out of hand.
"Anywhere white people are poor, I'm afraid to go" Lawrence Holmes 670 the Score
what did he look awful in ST?
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
early consensus is he'll end up in Sac anyway
the AN thread also included this classic:
Bublé may be the best pop male vocalist I’ve heard since Barry Manilow.
I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.
This reminds me of Aquinas' Summa Theologica.
''I love it, oh, my God, yes."
by thecip on Apr 3, 2010 10:00 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
thanks.
i think?
"I could give two (bleeps) about it," Buehrle said. "I think this whole Facebook, Twitter, all this stuff is ridiculous, if you ask me."
driving around L.A., listening to 'Dodger Talk'...
…all they do is hype Dodger’s vs. Yankees in late June. If towelheads really wanted to hurt Israel, this’d be the game.
by RoyEgan on Apr 4, 2010 12:10 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
I don't know what any of this means.
There are people who have towels for heads?
by Ozzie Montana on Apr 4, 2010 1:45 AM CDT up reply actions
this comment is even worse than his last comment
and that’s saying something. at least they only happen like once a month.
"I could give two (bleeps) about it," Buehrle said. "I think this whole Facebook, Twitter, all this stuff is ridiculous, if you ask me."
I didnt realize Los Angeles had an abundance of Jewish people.
with their own radio station even.
And since when does Israel care about baseball?
And wow. just wow.
The host of Dodger Talk is a guy named Ken Levine
He was a DJ and TV writer before he became a baseball announcer (Mariners, Orioles) in the 90’s. Wrote for “Cheers,” “Frasier,” and the Dancin’ Homer episode of the Simpsons.
Levine also has a very entertaining blog: http://kenlevine.blogspot.com/
I am dumber for having read this.
You must be the pride of your Friday night singles Sprite and Scrabble tournaments in your mom’s basement.
by Ghost Soldier on Apr 14, 2010 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
That's why it's the catbird seat
don’t think I’d be going out on a limb to say it is obvious that the more 2-0 counts a batter sees the better off he will be.
Praise Him!!
I enjoyed reading this.
BuehrleMan, if you can find out the first-pitch swinging percentages for guys like Alexei, AJ, and a couple others, it may prove my theory that the Sox KILL themselves first pitch swinging… especially with RISP and less than 2 out. It seems like it’s a constant problem throughout the line-up, but the statistics could prove otherwise.
by Ghost Soldier on Apr 14, 2010 10:47 AM CDT reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on South Side Sox
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Five tips for Showtime’s second season of ‘The Franchise’
- The 10 best things about being a Detroit Tigers fan
- Surprise! A’s finally end the Yoenis Cespedes derby with $36 million deal for Cuban star
- The time Whitney Houston sang to Jim Bowden
- Pitchers and catchers! Mariners get early start in Arizona
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
