FanPost

May 21st, Marlins vs White Sox - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Marlins and the White Sox using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 11:15 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
FLA CHA R.Nolasco vs M.Buehrle CHA 51.69% 49.71%

 

Notes:  Both Vegas and the simulator are in pretty good agreement on this game.  Both think that it is pretty much a toss up game.  Feel free to take a swag at which score among the "Top 150 Most Likely Scores" will come in.  The distribution of scores is pretty even, the most likely score only has around a 4% chance of occurring.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 CHA 4-3   51 FLA 2-0   101 CHA 8-0
2 CHA 3-2   52 FLA 8-6   102 FLA 10-7
3 CHA 5-4   53 FLA 4-0   103 FLA 10-6
4 FLA 4-3   54 CHA 4-0   104 CHA 10-9
5 FLA 3-2   55 CHA 8-4   105 FLA 11-1
6 CHA 6-5   56 CHA 8-5   106 CHA 10-6
7 FLA 5-4   57 FLA 8-7   107 FLA 9-0
8 CHA 2-1   58 CHA 8-3   108 CHA 10-1
9 FLA 4-2   59 CHA 8-6   109 CHA 11-3
10 FLA 5-3   60 FLA 1-0   110 FLA 11-6
11 CHA 4-2   61 CHA 8-2   111 CHA 11-4
12 CHA 5-3   62 FLA 9-3   112 CHA 10-7
13 FLA 3-1   63 FLA 8-1   113 CHA 10-8
14 FLA 6-5   64 FLA 5-0   114 FLA 10-8
15 FLA 2-1   65 CHA 7-1   115 FLA 12-2
16 FLA 5-2   66 FLA 9-4   116 FLA 12-3
17 FLA 6-4   67 FLA 9-2   117 FLA 10-9
18 CHA 3-1   68 CHA 5-0   118 FLA 12-4
19 CHA 5-2   69 FLA 6-0   119 CHA 11-2
20 CHA 6-4   70 FLA 9-5   120 CHA 11-5
21 CHA 7-6   71 CHA 9-8   121 FLA 11-7
22 CHA 6-3   72 CHA 8-1   122 CHA 9-0
23 FLA 4-1   73 CHA 6-0   123 FLA 10-0
24 FLA 6-3   74 CHA 9-3   124 FLA 12-1
25 CHA 4-1   75 FLA 10-3   125 CHA 12-3
26 FLA 6-2   76 FLA 9-6   126 FLA 12-5
27 FLA 7-4   77 FLA 9-1   127 CHA 12-4
28 FLA 5-1   78 CHA 9-4   128 CHA 11-6
29 FLA 7-5   79 FLA 7-0   129 CHA 11-1
30 CHA 6-2   80 FLA 10-2   130 FLA 11-8
31 FLA 7-6   81 FLA 10-4   131 FLA 12-6
32 FLA 7-3   82 CHA 9-6   132 CHA 12-5
33 CHA 7-4   83 FLA 9-7   133 FLA 13-3
34 CHA 5-1   84 CHA 9-2   134 FLA 13-5
35 CHA 7-5   85 CHA 9-5   135 CHA 11-7
36 CHA 7-3   86 CHA 7-0   136 FLA 11-0
37 FLA 6-1   87 CHA 9-7   137 CHA 10-0
38 CHA 8-7   88 FLA 10-5   138 FLA 13-4
39 FLA 7-2   89 FLA 8-0   139 CHA 12-2
40 FLA 3-0   90 CHA 10-5   140 FLA 12-7
41 CHA 1-0   91 FLA 9-8   141 FLA 13-2
42 CHA 3-0   92 CHA 9-1   142 CHA 12-6
43 FLA 8-3   93 FLA 11-4   143 CHA 11-8
44 FLA 8-2   94 FLA 10-1   144 CHA 11-9
45 CHA 2-0   95 FLA 11-2   145 CHA 11-10
46 FLA 8-5   96 CHA 10-3   146 CHA 12-1
47 FLA 8-4   97 CHA 10-4   147 FLA 13-1
48 CHA 6-1   98 FLA 11-3   148 FLA 11-9
49 CHA 7-2   99 CHA 10-2   149 FLA 13-6
50 FLA 7-1   100 FLA 11-5   150 FLA 11-10

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