According to statistical mechanics, the Sox aren't as bad as you might think

A friend of mine ranks sports teams using a methodology similar to the way Google ranks pages, and arranges them in such a way as to illustrate the expected difference in score between teams, assuming a neutral playing field. Using his system, the Sox are actually a middle of the pack team.

Other sports are ranked from time to time and I like the layout of the rankings, so I decided to share. Enjoy!

about 2 years ago rhythm 8 comments 0 recs |

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Nice read and interesting system

Not too excited about being 17 out of 30. (Especially since the Twins are 4th)

"Quantify my balls."
- KenWo

by justjc on May 25, 2010 2:48 PM CDT reply actions

To my understanding, you really want to look at the difference in the numbers to the right of the team names

So yeah, 17th isn’t great, but he’s calculated a 0.95 run difference assuming a neutral playing field between the Sox and Twins.

Against the Rays, the Sox stack up much, much worse (2.23 runs less).

FUCK EVYTHING BACON RULZ WEER GONNA WIN TEH CHAMPSHIOP
...colintj, Nov8, 2009

by rhythm on May 25, 2010 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions

so he uses raw run totals and adjusts for SOS

doesn’t seem to revolutionary, but I’d be curious if there is more to it than that. Couldn’t find much on the site about his methods.

by madvillian on May 25, 2010 3:07 PM CDT reply actions

I'll ask and see if he'll divulge any more secrets

When he explained the method to me previously (and for college basketball, mind you), it seemed slightly more complex, but much of it went over my head anyway ;)

FUCK EVYTHING BACON RULZ WEER GONNA WIN TEH CHAMPSHIOP
...colintj, Nov8, 2009

by rhythm on May 25, 2010 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions

sounds like there are bonuses for beating good teams

i’d be most interested in whether he’s regressing properly. if he’s got his physics degree, the data’s out there so i assume so. but i don’t think this is necessarily a better model than the various ones already in existence. fangraphs WAR, for instance, had the Sox at 1 win below average last i checked. similar for BP’s third order wins.

I'd rather have Rios steal 50 bases than hit 50 home runs. I want production.

by colintj on May 25, 2010 6:25 PM CDT up reply actions