Currently the White Sox sit 32-34, good for 3rd place in the AL Central, 5.5 games back of the Twins for the division. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion the White Sox aren't winning the Wild Card. The Tigers currently sit only 0.5 games back of the Twins, 5 games ahead of us.
Rest of First Half
A home series against Hotlanta, a home series against the Cubbies, two series against the Royals, a series at home against the Angels, and a series in Arlington against the Rangers. In my estimation, the Sox go 12-9 against this schedule, finishing the first half 44-43. The second half looks like this:
Second Half Opponent Total W-L as of June 19th: 327-349
Twins (38-29) ... 13 games
Mariners (26-41) ... 7 games
Athletics (33-36) ... 9 games
Tigers (37-29) ... 14 games
Orioles (18-49) ... 7 games
Royals (29-39) ... 6 games
Indians (26-40) ... 6 games
Yankees (41-26) ... 3 games
Red Sox (41-28) ... 7 games
Angels (38-32) ... 3 games
Now, while our second half offers us 26 games against terrible teams, we have to keep in mind how the Sox have done against the AL Central teams this season. The Sox are 4-8 against Cleveland, 3-3 against the Royals, 2-3 against the Twins, and 3-1 against Detroit. If this roster stays current, in my estimates, the Sox go 34-41 in the second half. That means the White Sox would finish 78-84 by my estimates.
So I've shown you what the Sox are up against the rest of the season. What do the statistics say, based on runs scored and runs allowed? As of today, the current projection, based on our runs allowed/runs scored so far this season, has the White Sox finishing, surprise! 78-84 (actually, 78.4-83.6). This is good for a 5.15% chance at the playoffs. (Real Post-Season Odds) Currently (as of June 19th) our postseason odds with some help from PECOTA has the White Sox playoff chances at 7.633% by finishing the season 80-82. (PECOTA aided odds)
So, by all estimations the White Sox will miss the playoffs by all but the slimmest of chances. Here comes my question and reason for this post. This recent hot streak has improved the White Sox' chances of making the playoffs to their current 5-7% chance. We can't assume the front office is looking at these current projections, but to use a Texas Hold'Em metaphor, I believe this current hot streak is allowing them to "check" in hopes of seeing the turn card. By my estimations, and those of the projection systems, the White Sox should have folded over a week ago. After a hot streak they are now in perilous territory:
Williams has the option now to become a buyer. A couple weeks ago he professed to be a seller. We can assume that some offers were made and he didn't like any of them. If he were to become a buyer, what would he give up? Hudson and Flowers would appear obvious trade bait. I'm much higher on Hudson than Flowers, but a catcher with Flowers' youth and power upside could be a great trade chip. After him you start getting into low B, and C prospect territory. There simply isn't enough on the farm, in my opinion, for him to give up to get the impact bats this team needs. His best trade chips are probably the bullpen arms, but finding a team to give up a solid major league bat this year for some bullpen help looks tough.
Because I don't see this current roster being able to reach the playoffs, or Williams being able to trade anything for a bat, I believe he should fold and look forward to the next hand. "Checking" and "Raising" at this point seems foolish, and a hefty gamble. If Williams decides to keep the roster intact it assures that this team will be mediocre for at least another year or two. We will get nothing from Konerko or AJ's departure. If Jenks is resigned we are likely looking at resigning a middle reliever for top closer salary. So, like Old Greg says, make an assessment! I know where I stand, but I'm curious to see where everyone else sits.
What does the recent stomping of NL teams mean for the White Sox in 2010?
They'll make the playoffs (65 votes)
They'll be at home watching the Twins or Tigers in October (69 votes)
134 total votes