"Just the facts ma'am" (A July White Sox Review)

Okay so Joe Friday really didn't say that. Its still a cool catch phrase and serves its duty for the abbreviated intro. Want continued drama for a sports team? Insert your 2010 Chicago White Sox. Maybe they should do a show or something? Anyhow due to the combination of kids and work I'll skip my normal attempt at humor (polite golf clap) and just give you a quick reference for some of the advanced numbers.

The Sox came into July eager to build upon the turnaround success of June. They had gone from 9 games under .500 to 3 games over and cut the division lead from 9 1/2 to 1 1/2. Fans were happy to be "back" into it but most experts and wanna be experts legitimately asked was this just a function of weaker NL opponents?  I mean after winning 15 of 17 the team was still in 3rd and -6 run differential. Let's just say this is not the kind of stuff that makes Keith Law jock you. Nevertheless the Sox were coming home after a series with Texas and then a critical bell weather homestand vs additional AL teams LA and Kansas City. What would our boys do in this 10 game stretch leading into the All Star Break? How about 9-1?  Okay.... It wasn't all good news. There was this little incident in which this pitcher broke his back (or something close to that.). Peavy's injury on July 6th was about as depressing as it can get (ask Hawk.) Better yet let's not. June was primarily built on spectacular pitching. Without one of the main cogs what would they do? The immediate response was great as his teammates continued the streak for another 5 and found themselves in 1st place at all star break. Who in the hell thought that a month ago?

RS 475

RA 425

58-45

2009 (53-51 473 RS/468 RA)

Again as the team entered the month its position was eerily similar to 09. Fortunately that's pretty much where the comparison ends. That team hovered around .500 hanging in contention because frankly the AL Central was terrible. This team set aside a potentially devastating Peavy injury to end the month 13 games over .500 with a 50+ run differential. Post Peavy record 14-6.  By the end of July they had won 34 out the last 45 playing .750 baseball during that stretch. It's safe to assume you can throw the tallest midget jokes out the window. Alas there wasn't much ground gained on the Twins. They ended the month on an eight game win streak to remain a 1/2 game back. Coin flip anyone?

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Offensive

YTD

.262/328/.420  wOBA .329/ 14 wRAA (8th in AL)

July

.300/.347/.477 wOBA .359 28 wRAA (2nd in AL)

Once again overall improvement in every category. The offense has truly moved up to an average AL offense and actually had a great month. June's wins were all about the pitching but July had its share of games the offense took on a load. 16 times the offense scored more 5 or more runs. Pair that with an above staff and you have yourself a winning combination.

1B- Konerko  .297/.373/.569 Model of consistency this year

2B- Beckham .245/.299/.356 Apparently reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. This is what happens when you put up a first half worthy of Mark Kotsay. Becks OPS was .950 in July. He still didn't walk much and of course was aided by a .400 BABIP but let's face it he was due for a regression. His continued hot streak is critical to Sox success, especially since they did not acquire a bat. (yet?)

SS- Alexei .289/.320/.433 New year same story. Its hot this summer and so is Alexei. .941 OPS for July. Of course paired will the defense equals mucho valuable.

3B- Omar .285/.351/.346 I give up. I don't know what the hell is going on and honestly I don't care. Omar's OBP in July was .433. Uh damn. JJ has a take on it.

LF- Pierre .264/.336/.296 Continued slight improvement. Still doesn't have any power but in all fairness does get on base at an acceptable rate lately. He too had a great OBP in July .386. That means that all the players who batted 1st and 2nd in the month of July were on base over 38% of the time. Allow yourself to dream what that would be like for a whole season.... okay wake up. We are the White not Red Sox.

CF- Rios. .300/.349/.488 Rios had a down month (it's allowed). Still a very good year.

RF- Q! .237/.337/.493 This is all you need to know about Q. He's a china doll who makes you hold your breath on nearly every pitch or running catch. He also put up a OPS 1.021 in July with a BABIP of .196! If anything the Sox have to keep him healthy at all costs because off days seem to interrupt his rhythm. So yes as frustrating as he is I don't want the Sox to trade or lose him because I know one full healthy season from him would be epic.

C- AJ .237/.274/.353 Maybe its time to admit that his biggest asset (no not calling pitches- it's health) is also now hindering him. Had his second sub .600 OPS month this year. Unlike other years backup catcher for the Sox is a strength. For the love of God Ozzie, use it.

DH/1B- Kotsay ..217/.300/.345 Too much has been written on Mr. Mark Kotsay but at this point is rather obvious. Whether from a return of Teabag (who's better) or a future waiver trade (who certainly will be better) its time for the come to Jesus moment and admit Kotsay's time has long passed. .504 OPS in a month where seemingly everybody was on base in front, in back and on top of him. Sorry Hawk he was "not" crushing every ball at somebody. Burn "all" his bats or at least ship the rest out of town.

Bench
Jones- .204/.313/.448, Dayan .318/.318/.500 Littlebridge .387/.406.742

Castro- .328/400/.603- Weird huh. One of things we initially liked about this team was bench. And then we didn't like it because the bench became the starters. The players have shifted but make no mistake its actually a strong under-card and versatile. Sunday lineups are not a cover your eyes moment.

In the words of Hawk, "DONT STOP NOW BOYS!" By the way I detest that one.

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Pitching

YTD

3.90 ERA (5th in AL), 3.68 FIP (1st), 4.11 xFIP (2nd)

k/9 7.14 (down to 5th)

bb/9 3.03(4th)

hr/9 0.74 (1st)

July

2.94 ERA (1st), 3.36 FIP (1st), 4.21 xFIP (4th)

Somehow even minus Peavy the staff managed to post a ERA half a half run lower than the previous month. Why? Because this staff is allergic to home runs. Really. They gave up 11 in July. 11! That's a team HR rate of .43. Ummm half the games are like in the Cell?

Starting Staff

              ERA      FIP      K/9    BB/9
Danks     3.40     3.33     6.99    2.95
Floyd     3.54     3.08     7.34    2.62
Buehrle   4.15     3.97    4.08    2.04
Garcia    4.73     4.52     5.38    2.69

Danks- Continued strong year numbers. Cut walks a bit. Gave up 1 HR in July.

Floyd- No longer any doubt. The best pitcher on the Sox staff. Oddly he wears the title of little run support this year but he gave up zero hrs in July. Floyd's pace is close to a 6 WAR season.

Buehrle- Mark struck out less than 3 batters per 9 this month. Ugh. I guess if it was anyone but him I'd be worried to death but it bears watching, especially considering recent years 2nd half struggles.

Garcia- Seemed to get hit harder as the month wore on but total and monthly numbers suggest he is pretty much the same as the whole year minus a hot streak. He has come back from bad outings a few times this year.

Peavy- Wish you well and hurry back. The team owes you too much money.

Hudson- Traded and I personally will miss you. I'm not a fan of the trade but hope I'm wrong.

Jim covers the bases for the Jackson return. 

Starting pitching was very good again this month and the team even managed to win 3 of the 4 missed Peavy starts.

The Big Three

                   ERA    FIP      K/9     BB/9     LOB%
Jenks        4.70    2.49    11.50   3.76    64.6%
Thornton   2.43   1.88    11.95   2.88    79.0%
Putz           1.83    2.02    10.30   1.60     82.2%

Jenks- Blew 2 saves that especially stand out because teams that win 75% of their games for an extended time frame tend to notice these things. Angry Bobby is back again? Good. He just needs to cut the walks and don't look now but he avgs almost as many ks as Easy Heat.

Thornton- Returned to his awesome self.

Putz-  Gasp he gave up a run!

The Rest

Santos- ERA 1.62/FIP 2.75 (good to see him around because you know teams asked about him.)

Pena- ERA 4.80 /FIP 4.95

Linebrink- ERA 4.50/FIP 5.02 (somewhere in my house is a hundred dollar bill) I can't find it so its useless, but really its not because $100 is a lot of money and nothing to sneeze at. I don' t think about it but it does bother me. So what is a lost $5 million like?

Threets- ERA 0.00/FIP 2.68 Did his job but keeping a seat warm for Sale.

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Defense

All these numbers are subject to classic SSS and wild swings blah blah blah....

Defensive Efficiency is now .683 (9th in the AL). Again you can't tell anything from UZR for a predictive nature but there is value in knowing the results.

Team UZR is -16.4 (11th)

Team UZR/150 -4.4 (11th)

Alexei reached the 10.0 total for UZR and currently ranks as the best defensive shortstop in baseball. Pierre continues a very good defensive year (7.1)  Rios took a dip (.7) which doesn't surprise me. Omar lacks his former range but pretty much fields everything. With Alexei's range to his right that's honestly all the White Sox really needs. Same goes for Konerko. His (-6.7) is still a result of lack of range. He still fields the position well and can scoop with the best of them.

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Team Base Running

Per BP the team’s Equivalent Base Running  Runs (EqBrr)

Results

The White Sox rank 11th in baseball with a total score of -2.0

Don't be fooled. The increase is solely the result of Pierre. He has the best score (5.8) followed by Quentin (.9). The genius AJ remains last (-3.2).

98 stolen bases out of 145 attempts for a 67.5 % conversion rate.

Larry already linked to this.

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At the end of last month we eagerly wanted to see the team's performance back in the junior league. There was a sense that they needed to pass the "next" test. Well they passed with flying colors. Detroit seems to have fallen by the wayside setting up a battle with the Twins. Who else would it be? Both teams are on pace for about 91 wins and the remaining schedules are similar in terms of strength. What will be the difference? Morneau return? Waiver Trade? Teabag? Jackson turnaround? Capps to the bullpen? 3 more home games directly vs Twins? Admit it. This is fun.

Last thing. Both teams are fast on the heels of Texas, which would negate a Yankee matchup and as Boston gets healthier the once impossible wild card berth is at least now a real number 2-3%. "hur ray beer."