Which Edwin do we expect?

  Having Edwin Jackson was an accident. He was acquired with the intent of trading for Adam Dunn. Washington's ownership group killed the idea of the deal, and Kenny Williams ended up (eventually) with both. Boy, it's nice when an 'accident' isn't one of those lame sit-com 'your birth was an accident' jokes. This was a good accident. Jackson will (most likely) serve as the 4th starter until/if Jake Peavy returns from injury. Jackson arrived from Arizona at the end of July, was spetacular in August and okay in September/October. What can, what should we expect to see from him for a full season?

Jackson's numbers for the month of August, 2010 were pretty unreal. 36.2 IP, 1.47 ERA, 30 hits, 7 runs, 45 strike outs and 8 walks. The more advanced numbers get even prettier: 11.05 K/9, 2.23 xFIP and 91.7% LOB rate. If he wasn't the best pitcher on the planet that month, he was right on the other guy's heels. That being said, he's historically an August performer, so perhaps our first consistant exposure was a mirage. "It's called a 'cutter,' you say?"

(via www.chicagobreakingsports.com)

September and October were less fun, as they were for everyone associated with the White Sox. His ERA more than tripled to 4.93, strikeouts declined to 32, xFIP jumped to 3.94 and LOB% cratered to 63.8%. Despite some of the warning signs, I believe Jackson is closer to the guy we saw in August than September/October and would happily run him out there against any other pitcher in our division and most in the league.

At 27 years old (he'll turn 28 on September 9th), there is little reason to think Jackson is an arm injury waiting to happen. Having thrown over 200 innings in '09 and '10, his motion/delivery are not high stress. Coupled with the "Magic Mayonaise" the Sox rub on everyone, 185 IP seems like a floor, frankly. Some of his September/October non-brilliance is explained by a higher BABIP against and a heavy snap-back away from his normal career numbers.

               Career:       Aug. '10:      Sept./Oct. '10:

WHIP:   1.49             1.04                 1.38

K/9:        6.68            11.05               7.51

LOB%:  71.1%          91.7%            63.8%

BABIP:   .306            .290                 .322

That his 'bad' WHIP and K/9 are still improvements over his career numbers is encouraging. To widen the lens a little, he threw 38.1 innings in Sept./Oct. and only walked 2 more batters than he did in August. He was a little unlucky, regressed a little closer to 'normal' production and had a bit of a spike in LD%.

To summarize: Jackson is a good pitcher. He just has to be consistent. A full year working with Don Cooper can't hurt his development. As for his actual numbers, again he's closer to August than September. So we'll split the difference on the ERA and say 3.50ish, take the over on 200 IP and aim for around 185 K's. Thanks, Washington Nationals ownership!!!