White Sox righties reversing the flow
Chicago is no stranger to guys who know how to pull off incredible reversals, and the South Side had three Rudolph Herings on their pitching staff last season.
I've been working on finishing up the player previews for White Sox Outsider 2011, and there's one trend I'm seeing that caught me completely by surprise -- right-handed pitchers who are more effective against left-handed hitters.
More specifically, righties who used to get whomped by lefties are now retiring them with more ease than their right-handed counterparts.
Three examples:
No. 1: Gavin Floyd
| 2008 | PA | 2009 | PA | 2010 | PA | |
| LHB | .259/.340/.485 | 427 | .232/.295/.385 | 419 | .259/.312/.361 | 439 |
| RHB | .226/.279/.380 | 451 | .256/.307/.372 | 378 | .292/.354/.422 | 359 |
Floyd had problems against lefties in 2008, but he erased the divide in 2009. Still, that didn't prevent teams from loading up on lefties in 2010, and all Floyd did was reverse the split entirely.
The rise in his ability to retire lefties correlates nicely with the effectiveness of his slider, especially if Pitch f/x mistakenly IDs his slider as a cutter (paging Colin for confirmation). But when lefties are getting more and more cracks at him, I wonder if he's seeing a dilution of hitting talent, with teams using an uneven platoon against him just for handedness' sake - like, Jerry Owens-caliber talent.
The Minnesota Twins serve as a counterexample. Floyd had nothing against the Twins last year, losing all four starts with an 8.04 ERA. He can't blame the slow start, because they never met until after the All-Star break. The Twins simply have a lot of left-handed hitters, and they're all legit.
No. 2: Tony Pena
| 2008 | PA | 2009 | PA | 2010 | PA | |
| LHB | .296/.340/.467 | 150 | .288/.378/.500 | 135 | .244/.354/.356 | 215 |
| RHB | .267/.309/.387 | 163 | .280/.297/.357 | 177 | .308/.349/.466 | 230 |
Unlike Floyd, Pena's process hasn't been a gradual one. His splits had widened for years, and all of a sudden -- bam! -- it's the right-handed hitters who are doing the pounding.
In this case, it seems to me that cowardice has its virtues. Pena was a fraidy-cat against lefties, as evidenced by the walk-to-strikeout issues (30 BB, 25 K), and the fact that he walked them twice as often as he did righties. BABIP also had a big split, although it stands to reason that if he's nibbling so much, the contact might be weaker.
It worked for him because he rarely pitched in anything resembling high leverage, but I wouldn't count on this working for him with the bases loaded in a tight game.
No. 3: Sergio Santos
| 2010 | PA | |
| LHB | .207/.293/.220 | 92 |
| RHP | .298/.390/.421 | 143 |
You'd think that with Santos' fastball-slider combo that he would be death to righties, but as Colin pointed out, his changeup is pretty good, and it aligned perfectly with his low-and-away-at-all-costs beginner's-kit approach. Sample size is also in play, but BABIP (.304) isn't.
It'll be interesting to watch what Santos does against lefties. I'm guessing the splits won't be this severe, but he could be a guy like Scott Linebrink -- no, not in that way, calm down -- where he's naturally predisposed to getting lefties out a little bit better.
But if he somehow maintains this split ... and if Tony Pena induces a lot of unimpressive contact amid the walks ... and Chris Sale and Matt Thornton are both in the bullpen ... then why is Will Ohman here again?
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Ohman
Because AJ said it was extremely important and Ozzie needed a LOOGY that he could bring in to face a lefty in a high leverage situation and then leave in to face three righties by ‘accident’ on numerous occasions. BRING ON THE SNOW!
"Good teams win games. Bad teams have meetings."
by BobbySouthSide on Jan 31, 2011 7:45 AM CST via mobile reply actions
No surprise
Based on the title of this article today I would have immediately guessed Santos was one of the guys, his changeup was filthy on occassion and a righty with that type of release and movement on a changeup is devastating on lefties. Kinda surprised that righties still hit him that well though… definitely something to keep an eye on as he enters more of a setup roll this year and ozzie has been known to ignor certain trends in the numbers.
Perfect time to use Fangraphs' newest toy
Nor the rolling sliders.
THIS NEW ARRANGEMENT SHOULD BE POOTY GOO
by Jim Margalus on Jan 31, 2011 12:41 PM CST up reply actions
Re: Floyd
The balls that register as “cutters” in Pitch F/X are indeed sliders. The average recorded velocity for Floyd’s “cutter” in 2010 was 84.5, which would be too low for a pitcher whose fastball velocity is over 92. In comparison, Floyd’s slider average velocity was 84.1.
Floyd can throw two different variations of his slider. One version which is more beneficial in counts where the hitter is expecting fastball. This slider is the pitch which registers as a cutter. Floyd can actually keep this “cutter” in the strike zone, because it has slightly less horizontal movement to the catchers’ right (-0.54 v. 1.10) and less downward vertical movement (3.76 v. -0.42) than the balls Pitch F/X actually does register as a slider. The second version, the pitch that actually registers as slider, Floyd is best off using when he is ahead in the count and the hitter is more vulnerable. The whiff % of 21.7% on this pitch is his highest of all, and suggests it doesn’t have to be in the strike zone to induce swings.
The link below is a clip of a game last year against the Nats when Floyd got back-to-back Ks on each slider. In the 2-2 count against Dunn, Floyd had a pitch to waste before going full, so threw a slider that moved slightly off the plate and broke down into the dirt. In the next at-bat, Zimmerman worked a 3-2 count, anticipating fastball. So Floyd threw the “cutter” which just stayed on the outside corner and broke down just below the belt. Had Zimmerman not swung, the pitch appeared to cross the plate in the zone. These pitches registered at 85 and 84 respectively on the gun. Floyd’s curve is about 80.
by 3E8 on Jan 31, 2011 2:01 PM CST reply actions 4 recs
That's what I figured
Thank you for doing the dirty work.
THIS NEW ARRANGEMENT SHOULD BE POOTY GOO
by Jim Margalus on Jan 31, 2011 2:29 PM CST up reply actions
Do Minnesota pirhanas count as an invasive species?
Will Don Cooper have to re-reverse the flow and close the bullpen gates now that Crain has been spotted at US Cellular Field?
And when will we demand that the team disinfect Mark Teahan before releasing him into the environment?

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