FanPost

Early Culumative 2011 White Sox Projections

There's only so much 2011 projection data out there right now. There will be no CHONE this year, Marcel should be out soon, and complete ZiPS projections are out after Marcel. Right now, there's only CAIRO (based off Marcel), Bill James (kind of optimistic), and FanGraphs fan projections to really look at.

I took all three of these systems and did my best to combine them. I think CAIRO had the Sox pegged at 85 wins, but after I looked at their projections, some of the things didn't make sense (like Beckham getting only 460 PAs). Bill James is usually very optimistic and the fan projections are optimistic too. However, when you combine a pessimistic system with two somewhat optimistic ones, you should come out with something in the middle right? Keep in mind Bill James and fan projections weren't available for all players, so I had to do without one or the other at times.

I did not adjust any of the rate numbers except for players who were not projected. I only adjusted playing time, plate appearances, innings pitched, etc. Those had to make sense. For example, what good are these projections if starters don't combine for 162 games started? For guys without projections (like Infante), I had to look at their minor league numbers and pretty much guesstimate. In the end, Infante had minimal value, so it's not a huge deal. I also had to guesstimate Morel's defense. There's literally no trustworthy data out there to indicate the kind of fielder he really is. So I made him slightly above average based on what I've read and heard about his glove. These numbers are park adjusted using Baseball-Reference's park factor for U.S. Cellular Field. League average wOBA is set at .325, which is a 3 year average with 2010 having the most weight. League Runs/Game is set at 4.49, also a 3 year average with 2010 having the most influence.

Wbrvhv_medium

Zyhoad_medium

The Sox' total WAR ends up at 40.8. The base is usually  48 wins for a team full of replacement players. So these projections have the Sox at 89 wins. It's nothing to worry about though. It's still early and the projections I used for these definitely aren't the best around.

SouthSideSox is a community driven site. As such, users are able to express their thoughts and opinions in a FanPost, such as this one, which represents the views of this particular fan, but not necessarily the entire community or SouthSideSox editors.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join South Side Sox

You must be a member of South Side Sox to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at South Side Sox. You should read them.

Join South Side Sox

You must be a member of South Side Sox to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at South Side Sox. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker