Rany revisiting baseball's aging curve
When it comes to the drafting of high school hitters, even slight differences in age matter. At least when it comes to high school hitters, young draft picks are a MASSIVE market inefficiency.
Based on the data above, the advantage the youngest high school hitters in a draft class have on the oldest high school hitters is just as great as the advantage college hitters once enjoyed. And this advantage does not appear to be diminishing over time.
7 months ago
onlysoxfaninbasel
33 comments
4 recs |
Comments
Great find! Did I mention that Rany is my dermatologist?
The numbers gave me a headache, but this made it all worthwhile:
“This is, all modesty aside, quite possibly the most impressive and significant finding of my career. When it comes to the drafting of high school hitters, even slight differences in age matter. At least when it comes to high school hitters, young draft picks are a MASSIVE market inefficiency.”
WU got his ass handed to him by the Shit Rooster, of all people! Priceless.
Chiburb is an assclown. A real life loser and internet bore.
Mick11's SBN profile.
We probably all had the same curve. Except KenWo who peaked at 17.
WU got his ass handed to him by the Shit Rooster, of all people! Priceless.
Chiburb is an assclown. A real life loser and internet bore.
Mick11's SBN profile.
i noticed the graph doesn't display wu's age. is it safe to say he's in negative territory now?
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
Your trading account is in negative territory.
"MY NAME IS YOANIS CESPEDEZ YOU KILLED MY FATHER" WHAT!
by winningugly on Oct 19, 2011 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions
not after AAPL earnings.
sell. sell. sell.
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
i'll let you know next tuesday.
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
I've been thinking about it. With the push into media delivery
that they are going to be doing with the new Kindle Fire, and the agreements for streaming content they’ve been inking, it’s gonna get interesting.
it just makes me weak in the knees the way gomez neither fixed or removed his crooked ass helmet after that puntoslide. -Trooper on Oct 5, 2011
by South Side Expat on Oct 19, 2011 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions
are you speaking of my jeff bagwell esque picture on facebook? lol
i was 20 at the time. coaching my bro’s team. the other guy is my old man.
fun times.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
i wonder if this is in any way inspired by gladwell's work in outliers.
clearly the development curve is so steep for so many years that it’s no surprise the physical and mental development that can take place in a year.
i guess i took it for granted that mlb teams were considering if guys are young for their levels even before they’re drafted.
seems like a natural factor to weigh when scouting teenagers.
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
Rany mentions Gladwell in the comments. IIRC,
Gladwell wrote about hockey players and the results were the opposite of Rany’s research.
But don’t quote me on that.
WU got his ass handed to him by the Shit Rooster, of all people! Priceless.
Chiburb is an assclown. A real life loser and internet bore.
Mick11's SBN profile.
by Chiburb on Oct 19, 2011 6:46 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
gladwell's research showed that professional hockey players birth dates were heavily skewed towards just after cutoff dates
so that if you had to be born after, say, jan. 1, 1990, to play on a traveling team, then most of the players would be born between january and march because they had as much as 11 months development on other qualified players.
the premise is the same, this scenario would have trout as a kid on that team with a december birthday. his numbers were good, but until you considered that he was nearly a full year younger than much of his competition, you didn’t realize how promising a prospect he was.
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
by MarketMaker on Oct 19, 2011 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions
Found the comment from Rany:
The evidence about hockey players – which went mainstream in Malcolm Gladwell’s book “Outliers” – is that young hockey players born at the beginning of the calendar year, who (because January 1st is the cutoff to determine what age group a kid plays in) are the oldest players in their league, tend to be slightly better than their younger teammates, which means they’re more likely to make All-Star teams, get expert coaching, make travel teams, etc – meaning they’re more likely to improve over time, and more likely to reach the NHL. A similar but smaller effect occurs in baseball, only the cutoff in baseball is August 1st – there are far more American-born baseball players born in August than in July. (The age cutoff has recently been moved from August 1st to May 1st, I believe.)
But my study reveals sort of the opposite. In this case, every player selected in the draft has already shown elite talent, but in this case it’s the younger player who simply has more time and physicial maturation on his side, and is likely to improve more. This effect is NOT an artifact of some artificial cut-off date; you could hold the draft on any day of the year, and some draft picks are always going to be younger than others.
I hope that makes sense.
WU got his ass handed to him by the Shit Rooster, of all people! Priceless.
Chiburb is an assclown. A real life loser and internet bore.
Mick11's SBN profile.
now i'm a bit lost.
my point was that any younger player who performs well enough to, for instance, get drafted has managed to succeed despite the inherent advantages given to those who are born just after cut-off dates.
therefore, his ability/skill is even better than it appears on the surface level because he’s doing in spite of some obvious handicaps versus his competition.
is that not the conclusion we’re drawing here?
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
by MarketMaker on Oct 19, 2011 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions
like griffey i was also 17 when i graduated due to my november birthday.
fucking idiots shoulda drafted me.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
Direct Instruction?
WU got his ass handed to him by the Shit Rooster, of all people! Priceless.
Chiburb is an assclown. A real life loser and internet bore.
Mick11's SBN profile.
nope
i had interest from 3 JUCOs (Moraine Valley, Morton and South Suburban). South Suburban had a pretty decent reputation at the time for baseball. Rob Mackowiak and Ron Mahay were major leaguers that went there.
instead i chose Moraine Valley because it was closer to home. the summer between high school and college i found that i liked partying just as much as baseball. i remember the first day of baseball practice at moraine valley… i drove there sat in my car and said fuck it and went home. i didn’t play again until i was 24 in a semi pro league. that decision still bugs me to this day. not that i was going anywhere in baseball anyway but i should have played in college.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
one of my little brothers played at triton.
i kept telling him how happy he’ll be that he did. then he blew his knee out playing catcher on a play at the plate.
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
by MarketMaker on Oct 19, 2011 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions
lol. he's probably like fuck that jagoff every time it is about to rain and he feels it.
triton was a good baseball JUCO too. still is i think.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
Kirby Puckett and Lance Johnson as I recall.
WU got his ass handed to him by the Shit Rooster, of all people! Priceless.
Chiburb is an assclown. A real life loser and internet bore.
Mick11's SBN profile.
Maybe too?
The Triton College baseball program is the most decorated in Region IV. In 42 years, Triton has won 26 conference championships, 20 Region IV championships, and has made 11 NJCAA World Series appearances.
Nearly all of these accomplishments came under the direction of Hall of Fame Coach Bob Symonds, on his way to compiling a record of 1,373-457 in 33 years at Triton. Symonds, who retired in 2004, had many players that played at the Major League level, including the late Kirby Puckett, Lance Johnson and Jeff Reboulet.
WU got his ass handed to him by the Shit Rooster, of all people! Priceless.
Chiburb is an assclown. A real life loser and internet bore.
Mick11's SBN profile.
yeah, it's still very good. at least as of a couple years ago.
lots of his teammates went on to play D-1.
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
by MarketMaker on Oct 19, 2011 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions
when I was 17 I had a monster junior year, had like 8 homeruns and killed the summer league I was in
I had some interest from Fordham in NYC, Kellogg (not a bad baseball school in Michigan) and some other smaller colleges. I probably got about 10 recruiting letters.
It was all downhill from there. I partied alot that summer and had a disappointing senior year. Ended up playing at Kalamazoo College (my top academic school) and had a decent career for them but our teams were horrible.
My claim to fame is striking out 3 times in one game against a guy from Hope College the Indians drated in like the 35th round.
There are more guys born in august in MLB than any other month
i read that somewhere years ago.
my September birthday worked out like that, where it burned me in little league, i wasnt eligible with my classmates and had to play t-ball an ‘extra’ year, but then in pony league my coach was smart enough to grab all the young 8th graders, so we had the advantage of all being freshmen and being ‘old’ for the level.
my boy is mid august
i ended up holding him back to start kindergarten this year instead of last for that reason alone.
"Statistics are about as interesting as first base coaches" Jim Bouton
by Grinder Rule #42 on Oct 21, 2011 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions



















