If I Ran the White Sox
by KenWo4LiFe on Nov 20, 2011 6:00 AM CST
in Analysis
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A few days ago, U-God developed his annual off season plan for Kenny Williams to follow. Today, I will present my plan for the White Sox as we head into the thick of the Hot Stove league. It is pretty clear that the White Sox are going to have to drop payroll after their 2011 bust of a season. Unfortunately it won't come from a trade of Alex Rios, Adam Dunn or Jake Peavy. All three are owed too much money and come at to high of a risk to move at this point. Like U-God, I'm going to also use 500 K as the base salary.
One Day We'll Meet Again:
Mark Buehrle - The fan favorite has reached the end of the line here on the South Side. He is getting interest from a reported 13 teams and I don't see a way the White Sox match the offers that he is going to get. I look forward to Soxfest 2020 when we celebrate the 15 year anniversary of the 2005 World Champions.
Pack your bags:
Gavin Floyd and Carlos Quentin. You guys are new members of the Colorado Rockies! This move will clear about 14 million in payroll (depending on what Quentin gets in arbitration). The Rockies have a strong need for a starting pitcher who can anchor the rotation and Floyd would fit right in. Other than Jhoulys Chacin, none of the Rocky hurlers had more than 175 innings.
The Rockies also have a need for a power hitting right handed outfielder and Quentin fits the bill. The Rockies are a team intent on contending in the NL West this year and the White Sox have two pieces that could help them do it.
In return the White Sox get RHP Chad Bettis.
You're out too:
John Danks. Unfortunately, I don't see the Sox being able to sign Danks at the end of the year, so instead of losing him in free agency, I am going ship him to the New York Yankees. In return, it seems like the White Sox have interest in catcher Austin Romine. We'll also take pitcher David Phelps. The 24 year old sits in the low 90s, with a very good slider. He also has a curve and a change and would be ready to step into the rotation in April.
The Yankees have plenty of pitching and catching prospects and would be thrilled to get a pitcher like Danks without having to give up Manny Banuelos or Dellan Betances.
Free Agent:
Yep. I said I wanted him and now I get him. The White Sox spend about as much money on international prospects as I do. Unless of course they are Cuban. The Sox have always liked Cubans. We've had the Cuban Comet, the Cuban Missile, the Cuban Pimp... now its time for the Cuban Pig Roaster. Yoenis Cespedes would fit in nicely with the White Sox after he signs his 6 year/ 42 million dollar deal, which includes a mutual option for a 7th year.
Also, I'd like to introduce Erik Bedard. Bedard will come to the Sox on a 1 year/ 7 million dollar deal that could bump it up to 10 million if he reaches 25 starts. We have Herm Schneider. Its time to put him to good use and get a healthy season out of Bedard while Bettis fine tunes himself in the minors.
Your 2012 White Sox
Lineup: Yoenis Cespedes- CF, Alejandro De Aza LF, Alexei Ramirez SS, Paul Konerko 1B, Adam Dunn DH, Dayan Viciedo RF, A.J. Pierzynski C, Brent Morel 3B, Gordon Beckham 2B.
Bench: Alex Rios (in a platoon with De Aza and Dunn), Austin Romine, Brent Lillibridge and a spring training battle between Osvaldo Martinez and Eduardo Escobar.
Rotation: Jake Peavy, Chris Sale, Philip Humber, Erik Bedard, David Phelps
Bullpen: Sergio Santos, Matt Thornton, Jesse Crain, Addison Reed, Will Ohman, Jason Frasor and a battle between Zach Stewart and Dylan Axelrod.
Bottom Line: This team would cost $106.5 million (plus 3 if Bedard reaches his performance bonus), shedding over 20 million in payroll. Unfortunately most of that comes out of the starting rotation. My plan puts more emphasis on Don Cooper and Herm Schneider, who have proven to be two of the best assets the Sox have, to keep Peavy and Bedard healthy, while keeping Humber going in the right direction and developing Sale and Phelps.
The Sox get a much needed young arm in Bettis and a catcher to take over for Pierzynski next season in Romine.
The lineup gets a dynamic piece in Cespedes. Rios will find a lot of time as he will split time with De Aza and Dunn.
Robin Ventura gets to lean on a pretty good bullpen for at least the first half of the season. At the break if the Sox are out of it they could deal a bullpen arm or two for a prospect and a money save.
My plan is a little radical, but I like things that way.
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And think of the increase in scorecard sales!
"People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage."
John Kenneth Galbraith
by Chiburb on Nov 20, 2011 6:28 AM CST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
The New GM
You’re going to trade Floyd and Quentin for somebody who is not on your 25 man roster?
a top ten prospect ('b' prospect according to sickels)
but i would think we should get more than that
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by onlysoxfaninbasel on Nov 20, 2011 7:14 AM CST up reply actions
I think there would be a bidding war for Floyd
if the team announced he was definitely on the market. Every team (except the Rays) needs pitching.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three-run homers."
by ThreeRunHomer on Nov 20, 2011 8:46 AM CST up reply actions
yeah, you better get more than a single pitching prospect with no upper minors experience for floyd alone, let alone with quentin included. the guy is a 22 year old college arm who dominated A ball. yes, that’s nice. and he’s probably a top 75-100 prospect in baseball. but so was brent morel last offseason. and no one would have taken morel for anything close to the value of this package.
well... i was going to include rex brothers.
and then flip thornton to the red sox. then i just decided on bettis.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
more.
as a point of reference, two years of javier vazquez at $11.5 million per, plus boone, got the white sox tyler flowers, santos rodriguez, jon gilmore and brent lillibridge.
floyd is $7M and $9.5M and is a younger and better pitcher than vazquez was. flowers was likely equal to a bettis. brothers would be a sensible addition. you’d want to add in at least a couple more lower tier prospects to make such a deal work. a hector gomez could play the lillibridge part of the formerly well-regarded prospect.
Yep.
Definitely gonna need more than Bettis for those two.
by Shoeless In SC on Nov 20, 2011 3:47 PM CST up reply actions
thanks for input, fyi, meant top ten in rockies system
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Highly underrated, Mark Kotsay became the best defensive designated hitter in American League history in 2010.
by onlysoxfaninbasel on Nov 20, 2011 10:06 PM CST up reply actions
where has tyler flowers gone?
"michael gilhaney is an example of a man that is nearly banjaxed from the principal of the atomic theory. would it astonish you to hear that he is nearly half a bicycle?" ~~ sergeant pluck
by BuehrleMan on Nov 20, 2011 7:17 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
Why don't you calm down?
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
Cespedes
The general consensus on Cespedes is that he’ll need time in the minors. He appears to be a great athlete, but he’s not nearly as polished as Alexei was when he came to the Sox. He remains a big question mark, so it’s highly unlikely he’d be ready on Opening Day. For the same reason, I would scoff at guaranteeing him $42 million.
Cespedes is 26 years old!
If he needs time in the minors to polish skills, then he is not worth 30-40 millions.
Warning: Read my posts at your own risk!
by JofpGallagher on Nov 20, 2011 8:28 AM CST up reply actions
Cespedes
Cespedes appears to be a guy who looks good getting off the bus (toolsy/physicality) but will need at least 2 + years in the minors learning to cut down his long swing and getting acclimated to the US. By then he probably will not be a CF er and I am unsure if his bat will play in the corner OF.
I think some team will overpay dearly for this guy and regret it in about 4 years.
by kimo from kauai on Nov 20, 2011 1:08 PM CST up reply actions
i'll take the chance. the guys a monster. just wait.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
I believe you would do better than KW
I believe dismantling the pitching while we keep the same rather broken bats is kinda risky. That pitching staff will [probably] allow more runs that the previous five, thus we will need to score more runs to win games.
I also think you are selling Quentin and Floyd a bit low. How about getting that Bettis and Edwar Cabrera? I really like the top of the line up you assembled.
Warning: Read my posts at your own risk!
Cabrera is 24 and in A+ ball.
No thanks.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
But a lefty with an above 10 K/9 innings ...yeah at A+....but I just think getting only Bettis is selling short
Warning: Read my posts at your own risk!
by JofpGallagher on Nov 20, 2011 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
Radical
Wow!!! I still say they can keep Buehrle if the offer him 5/13/13 mil. I’m OK with trading Danks but I’d keep Floyd and sign him to an extension. Goodby Quentin and hello to the new Cuban!! Como esta??
Players drawing interest from half of baseball don't generally sign team-friendly pay cut deals
a VERY AVERAGE Sox Machine refugee
Not bad but 2 points
1. Sox have an excellent track record of resigning their own, and I still believe Danks will reup with the sox, post 2012 peavys 19 mil comes off the books so the obvious savings to the rotation on just that alone can pay for Danks’s to stay on the south side, moving 27 year old lefies with his track record and talent is a horrible idea.
2. I would literally rather watch jerry reisndorf burn 100 dollar bill after 100 dollar bill before I give bedard 7 mil, that walking DL trip is a disaster and I want no part of him, this team cant afford to miss on a free agent signing this year and your recommendation for bedard at 7 million has a higher chance for a strikeout then any adam dunn trip to the plate
i've always liked bedard.
last year he made 24 starts and had an era of 3.62. on a one year deal i don’t think it would be that big of a risk.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
I dont see it
You want to trade danks and floyd to save about 7 or 8 mil each on them, established and durable pitchers in their prime for a guy who is BRUTALLY injury prone who you hope can make half as many starts for the exact same money… and then if he even pans out he would make more then the 7 and walk via free agency anyway
Bedard is a signing a team that is very close to contention makes, not a team that is going to be trading younger players with a much better durability track record
The move makes no sense only bad things can come from it.
Remember Edwin Jackson
You trade for an enigmatic pitcher who if he is bad you burnt two prospects and ten million for nothing and if he is good, you get one year out of him and he walks in free agency because his price is more then you can afford.
With bedard its basically the same type of situation if he is bad or VERY LIKELY hurt you waste 7 mil on a team strapped for cash if he is good, someone else will outbid you the next year anyways
it's really not basically the same type of situation. at all.
in your first scenario, the white sox “burned” two prospects and money. in your second scenario, the white sox gain prospects and “burn” less money.
only use comparisons if they make some degree of sense. we can understand if you explain why something is bad. we’re not kindergarteners who need examples, pictures and songs to get it.
larry what do you think of the return package for danks that i said... is that about what we'd expect?
i wanted to put betances… but i figured there is no chance in hell that happens.
thanks for the explanation on the floyd deal too.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
well, that might be more of a player evaluation difference.
romine is fine. i’m not quite so enamored with phelps. you’re probably in the vicinity if you like phelps. i think you’d probably see a lower level kicker in there, at least to make up for the draft compensation the white sox would otherwise get if danks walked after 2012.
you're obviously in the camp of either compete or rebuild.
KW likes to do both at the same time. apparently so does KenWo. that’s what this move is. and, duh, good things could come from it, too. let’s dispense with the hyperbole.
so....
trade danks and floyd hope for 15 starts out of bedard and then what the other 15-20 starts go to zach stewart…. how does stewart plus bedard for 30+ starts make you a better team then either danks or floyd for 30 starts each
kenny really doesnt do both at the same time he mostly just tries to compete
who is hoping for 15 starts. he made 24 last year.
i assume you’re aware that the white sox aren’t going to be able to have all their cake and eat it, too. the white sox are almost certainly going to trade at least one of them. and they’re a pretty good bet to be signing a veteran stopgap. bedard is fine. pick another, if you like.
24 last year
and 15 and 15 the years before that right?
You want to make a wager on over under the amount of starts bedard makes next year we can split the difference if your interested
my post said
24 last year
15 and 15 the years before that
you want to split the difference
you didnt split the difference you just took the 15 number
did you even read this thread, third time i will post
my post said
24 last year
15 and 15 the years before that
you want to split the difference
you didnt split the difference you just took the 15 number
your reading comprehension
is sad
its ok i expected you to back down from a fair bet because you know bedard wont make more then 19.5 starts, you just like to argue with me
my reading comprehension is just fine. you're in a disorderly retreat from your initial position.
by the way, even if i accepted your logic for creating this new “fair bet”, you don’t get to throw out his 2010 season just because it makes the bet fairer to you.
what does
split the difference mean, your pointing to his 24 starts im pointing to his 15, if a bet is made on those two points the difference should be split
OR
i will offer this bet, 15 starts and under i win, 24 starts or over you win and 16-23 is a wash?
so...
a midget walks into a library, asks the librarian if she has any books on irony. she says yes, over there on the top shelf.
"There's too many (bleeping) guys on the computer. It's simple. I say that. Pete Rose never watched a computer. Rod Carew never did. All those hitters, they go out and see the ball, hit it and move on." - Ozzie
by usualsuspect on Nov 21, 2011 4:43 AM CST up reply actions
if he pans out you let him walk next year anyway.
with peavy and aj coming off you can spend that 23 mil to bolster up the pitching. I am using him as a 1 year stop gap no matter what he does.
if he only starts 6 games… all you are out is 7 million. its completely different than the jackson deal because you aren’t giving up anyone to get him.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
your trading danks and floyd
and bolstering the staff with someone who is a very safe bet to spend half the season on the DL
why not let danks just go the year then… it makes no sense to pay a guy who will be hurt at the deadline or end of the year and is a free agent we have zero ties too
The whitesox have had 1 thing going for them for 6 or 7 years and thats strong pitching and health, bringing on bedard after trading danks and floyd brutally jepardizes both those things
danks may have an outside shot of brining back draft pick compensation
ok but in my deal you get a good catching prospect to take over for AJ next year and a starting pitcher that is ready for the majors.
bedard is a stop gap for one year. if he’s healthy you can deal him at the deadline if we’re out of it for more prospects. if he is healthy and we are competing then he’s a front line guy. if he isn’t it only cost you the 7 mil.
i like bedard. i think the deal i proposed will be something like he is going to sign.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
im all for acquiring prospects
in your proposed deals, my problem is reallocating the money saved into a broken down pitcher
i would rather bring in 5 non roster invites and hope one of them turns into phil humber again….
take the 7 mil and spend on the draft or put it towards something much much much more reliable then bedard, he is damaged goods
If you're all for acquiring prospects
The only way you’re going to do it is by trading danks for them. Bedard will cost less than danks. How does this not make sense if the the plan is to not sign him?
It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity
bedard costs less
not really, per start he is actually going to be much more then danks
danks can be traded at the deadline if the sox flounder because i can bet on him being healthy I cant say that about bedard
i can also say danks is a good bet for an extention for his prime years again because of his age and health history, that again isnt true about bedard
most teams trade their top players under the "well by the next time we are good this guy will be out of his prime " notion, danks is 27 he is going to be good another 6-8 years the sox can contend in a couple years with the right moves… i keep danks unless overwhelmed and i sign him after the year , we have the money coming off the books
Has anybody told you you're obnoxious?
Just askin cuz I don’t remember.
"People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage."
John Kenneth Galbraith
you mean the guy coming off his worst season since his rookie season and in which he made 27 starts?
i’ve seen the beginning of this movie with starting pitchers before. your bet isn’t as safe as you seem to think. i’m obviously not privy to his health records, and neither are you, but i don’t need to be overwhelmed to decide it’s time to cut bait.
That's an interesting thought.
So you’re in the trade Danks camp because you think his value will decline or because we shouldn’t sign him to a long term deal?
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
holy fuck if i knew you were going to make an ordeal over bedard i would have said jeff francis just so i don't have to read about it!
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
Agreed.
I like the Bedard idea.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
I'd rather have Bedard at even $7M than Frasor at $3.75M
But I agree with larry, I think Bedard can be had for less guaranteed.
by Shoeless In SC on Nov 20, 2011 11:46 PM CST up reply actions
Most likely, yes.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
I'd rather keep Danks for one more year
NAOPOS
by blackoutsox on Nov 20, 2011 12:49 PM CST up reply actions
So we can get absolutely nothing in return for him
This offseason pitching is expensive we have some pretty good commodities to restock the farm
It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity
I think he'll fall under the recieving compensation category
or, as someone else said, trade him at the deadline if we suck balls.
NAOPOS
by blackoutsox on Nov 20, 2011 10:17 PM CST up reply actions
but then if we trade him at the deadline
who takes his spot in the rotation? If we trade him in the offseason we would be able to get someone serviceable as a stop-gap, as Ken said. What happens if we don’t suck balls? Danks goes to the open market and we don’t get much in terms of compensation for him.
It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity
trade at deadline
if danks is shipped out at the deadline, what does it really matter who fills in, some 4A pitcher or a stop gap, if the sox decide to sell I dont see why it would matter
Don't you think you could get more in return for Danks this offseason?
The free agent pitching market is brutal, the team Danks is traded to get a full year of his services rather than 2 months and there will probably be more serviceable to good pitchers available at the trade deadline than there is now.
It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity
the cuban pig roaster.
you are a sick fuck. who is on the other end?
by larry on Nov 20, 2011 10:12 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Interesting plan, but that rotation could easily be a disaster
Two guys who have averaged ~100 innings per season in the past three years, one guy who didn’t do anything until last year and is still kind of an unknown, and two guys who have never started in the majors.
I’m sure some of them would be pretty good, but at least one or two of those guys will be a mess.
Even if we take the most optimistic view, you’ve probably got 200-300 innings that will have to go to someone besides the five you identify, and the pitching depth chart is even uglier.
a VERY AVERAGE Sox Machine refugee
Wow - Sox dropped their season tick prices
little over a buck a game for full season (about a 4% cut) – that will ensure they maintain their ticket holders. Guess that means they’ll really have to cut salary
"ass hole thi is the same line up whit leftys you idiot"
Good planning
I have never understood some of the sox ticket pricing methods, in my opinion its better to get 40,000 people to the game at 25 bucks a ticket then it is 20,000 at 50 bucks a ticket, let the merchandising, concession, parking, all the extras help you make more money. Your overhead is already their , rent is rent, the vendors, security, ect ect the tons of things needed to run an organization is already paid for so fill the damn stadium as much as possible
I think it's about establishing new worths for the product
Based on their regular season and spring training pricing models, their concern seems to be trying to set new floors for the value of tickets. If they make significant cuts, they’re saying, “Remember when we said our tickets were worth $50? Boy, we were wrong.”
Problem is, they’re betting on success of the team to make the higher prices worth it at the end. They’re also betting on a good team showing up for two consecutive years, since the true attendance burst comes after a good year, not during. So when the team comes out of the gate playing unsatisfying baseball, it’s highly likely they’re going to be left holding the bag.
And really, for the prices they charge (especially the ones inflated by the prime/premier dates), they’re basically charging class-franchise prices. For a team that has never made the postseason in consecutive years in their 110-year history, they’re outkicking their coverage.
Whales! Squids! Sharks! They're everywhere! Hello, I am Poseidon! Now, when people told me I was crazy that thinly sliced roast beef would be a delicious fast-food option, I knew it was the greatest idea, and you can thank me later for Arby's.
by Jim Margalus on Nov 20, 2011 1:56 PM CST up reply actions
The NBA season adds an interesting facet to the Sox monetary concerns.
The lords of dawn are men such as Mr. Lucy.
You think a company worth hundreds of millions doesn't do homework to decide the optimal pricing for their products?
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
not that simple
sox have to publicly act like equals to the cubs they cant offer bargain basement tickets and then not be known as the second team in the second city, we say the same problem with ticket pricing for spring training games that is a disaster the sox think they cant price below dodger pricing because then they would be admitting something we all know they arent as big a draw as the dodgers
Are you serious?
You are out your fucking mind.
It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity
settle down tool bag
explain why the sox charge the same price as the dodgers then at spring training , basically the most expensive ticket in spring?
The fuck does this have to do with anything to do with equality with the Cubs?
Also, did you happen to miss last year when the Cubs ended up having to switch to dynamically priced tickets, slashing prices cause people weren’t showing up?
by South Side Expat on Nov 20, 2011 9:47 PM CST up reply actions
The cubs or 2ndary sites
Cubs sold over 3 mil tickets for the 8th straight year last year, I dont think they were slashing prices, I think the ticket brokers and places like stub hub who had already bought the tickets were the ones lowering their prices
They barely made it past 3 mil attendance last year,
and did so by cutting prices on some non marquee games by almost half.
by South Side Expat on Nov 20, 2011 10:02 PM CST up reply actions
so they did
make it past three million
and lowering prices got more people to buy tickets which was exactly my inital post and point about how i think the sox over value their tickets and if they sold more cheap tix they could actually make more money because of concessions, merchandise, parking, ect ect….
and then you asserted this:
‘sox have to publicly act like equals to the cubs they cant offer bargain basement tickets and then not be known as the second team in the second city’.
you ought to know that although you move on from previous posts and take your discussion wherever it is your mind wanders to, the things you’ve said can still be found further up the thread.
by craigws on Nov 20, 2011 10:58 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
who gives a fuck about the cubs?
people would be pleased to pay less to go to a white sox game. nobody is going to think ‘well, that ticket is priced ten dollars cheaper than the cubs, i’m clearly going to see an inferior product than those ever-successful cubbies’.
I so love this title
Thank you.
And today we can celebrate our victory around the pike still skewering the rotten skeleton of The Cheat.
by winningugly on Nov 20, 2011 9:15 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Well, sounds like you've got it all figured out.
Way to take me to school.
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
The Sox have no problem admitting they aren't as big of a draw as the Dodgers, it is a fact and there are numbers to prove it
You seem to think you have this vast knowledge of the inner workings of the White Sox and it all lies in some weak conspiracy theory you have. The following are just guesses on the spring training ticket pricing: 1. The Sox and Dodgers decided on a uniform ticket price in order to make the facility profitable and pay it off. 2. The Dodgers might even be charging more if they were not tied to the White Sox but since they are, they lowered their prices. Just guesses, I don’t have all the answers like you do.
It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity
But rent isn't rent
according to their stadium deal. they get subsidized for poor attendance.
http://www.southsidesox.com/2011/10/27/2517918/reading-room-us-cellular-field-deal-re-examined-but#81298280
Conflicted
I’m not sure if I’m supposed to feel good about this or sink further into my post-Buehrle, Dunn-batting-DH-in-2012 depression.
"I enjoy young people." - Jerry "The Creep" Sandusky during Bob Costas' interview (11/14/11)
Well
I think we could net way more for Quentin and Floyd than 1 player. I could see a small package of prospects for them if we combine them together in a trade.
yah... after further review i sold them too short.
i think we could possibly net rex brothers (LHRP) and a couple of lower level guys. Bettis is the prize of the package though.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
Yonder Alonso FTW!
Tucked away at the end of an article on the Joe Nathan signing by Tim Brown for Yahoo:
Reds GM Walt Jocketty is shopping young slugger Yonder Alonso(notes) for a closer or No. 2 starter, according to sources. He has spoken to Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Toronto and Oakland, among others. …
Can we get this guy for Sergio Santos? If so, why the hell not? If not, who else would we need to throw in? Either way this team needs more Cubans!
id flip floyd for him. probably would flip danks for him too.
i don’t see the reds actually doing it though
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
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