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Matt Thornton didn't need to change

For Matt Thornton in 2011, change wasn't beautiful.

I'm not talking about the change in his role. Sure, his time as White Sox closer was an unmitigated disaster due to circumstances in and beyond his control, but the explanations behind the failures weren't really explored, aside from the perceived absence of "closer mentality."

What I am talking about is the changeup, which might have been an accomplice to those early-season crimes. A pitch that Thornton hadn't thrown in two years resurfaced at odd times and places, and when it disappeared, so did his massive struggles.

I'd been thinking about Thornton since he appeared on White Sox Weekly on Saturday (unavailable on The Score's website at the moment). Thornton summed up his season to Chris Rongey by saying he was the same ol' Easy Heat for the final five months, but the first month couldn't have been much worse, as we are all too well aware.

Thornton is being a little charitable to himself, because he wasn't that great in May, either. His ERA came down, but his execution remained shaky, which is evident in that month's WHIP (1.61). He actually didn't really resemble his commanding self until June, and it happens to coincide with a dramatic reduction in the usage of his worst pitch.

Star-divide

While FanGraphs says Thornton threw a changeup 5.8 percent of the time, it doesn't quite tell the story of the pitch. Using TexasLeaguers.com to find his changeup frequency month by month, on the other hand...

And it was noticeable. In April, I wrote about how Thornton threw an awful lot of changeups at weird times. Parsing the TexasLeaguers data backs up this theory and then some -- he actually threw his change more to lefties than righties, which is quite backwards. Lefties don't often throw changeups to left-handed hitters. Mark Buehrle and John Danks both have excellent changeups, but they won't throw it that often. That's the underlying concept of Joe Maddon's Danks Theory.

Thornton doesn't have a Buehrle- or Danks-grade changeup. At 90 mph and little movement, his changeup is essentially a Will Ohman fastball. But for some reason, he felt inspired to use that pitch more against lefties than his slider. It's really a head-scratcher.

We can't claim cause-and-effect here, but it's funny that Thornton's numbers much more closely resembled his old self after he went back to the fastball-slider combo:

Split W L ERA G IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP SO/9 BB/9 SO/BB
April-May 0 3 5.60 20 17.2 25 18 11 2 11 19 2.038 9.7 5.6 1.72
June-Sept. 2 2 2.36 42 42.0 35 16 11 1 10 44 1.071 9.4 2.1 4.47

And if you go back to 2010, when he went 8-for-8 in save situations when called upon to close out games, he didn't throw any changeups.

His perfect record from the prior year is the reason why I don't believe he lacks testicular fortitude for saves. But it's possible that having the defined role might have changed his pitch selection for the worse. Given that he would be called upon in righty-heavy innings on purpose, it might have been suggested to him to feature a changeup for the first time in years, and he had neither the tool nor the know-how.

In this scenario, it makes more sense that he might have a minor beef with Don Cooper, as we were pondering. Thornton wouldn't be the pitcher he is today without Don Cooper's help. However, if he was given a bad gameplan that led to the most embarrassing stretch of his career, that might be reason for an airing of grievances. 'Tis the season, after all.

UPDATE (3:26 p.m.): Harry Pavlidis, who knows his way around PITCHf/x, pointed out to me on Twitter that a good chunk of Thornton's changeups were actually misclassified sliders thrown at cutter speed. But he was throwing legit changeups, too, after a prolonged period of going without. In either case, Thornton had this 89-90 mph tweener pitch that didn't do much, and he phased it/them out as the season went on.

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This won't be settled between Thornton and Cooper

until they compete the “Feats of Strength”

by ParisSox on Dec 19, 2011 7:44 AM CST reply actions   1 recs

Festivus is Friday, I can't wait!

My friends and I celebrate it every year with a big potluck dinner, at which we air our grievances and then followed by the Feats of Strength!

Packers Season

by OznCoop on Dec 19, 2011 11:26 PM CST up reply actions  

lol. gotta love a festivus reference

Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.

by KenWo4LiFe on Dec 19, 2011 8:01 AM CST reply actions  

who's got the aluminum pole?

I’ll need it for our airing of family grievances on Thursday evening.

White Sox 2012: Helplessly rebuilding?

by greenlight on Dec 19, 2011 8:21 AM CST up reply actions  

Left-handed changeups tail down and in to lefties.

Which is where most of them love the ball.

Plus, the idea of the changeup is that if a batter isn’t completely fooled, there’s still a good chance it will find the end of his bat. When it breaks in to a same-handed batter, it’ll work its way toward the barrel even if the batter’s timing is off.

That said, I think lefties could be more daring about it and probably not suffer too much. But when a pitcher gets burned, he probably thinks he asked for it.

by Jim Margalus on Dec 19, 2011 11:52 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

makes sense.

i guess i was thinking really good changeups, like keith foulke and johan santana’s could be thrown to anyone.

by obnoxious american on Dec 19, 2011 1:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Nice Blago reference

Thanks for the insight, my eyes told me that Thornton was getting hit very hard early in the season and that his lack of success wasn’t only (or even mainly) the JP defensive boners. And since I missed your April post, I did buy into the “not closer material” meme so it’s nice to see some rationale that would seem to disprove that.

"Hawk Harrelson: Annoying even the hearing impaired": Teahenny Penny paraphrasing Chisoxfan1473

by NorthSidePaulie on Dec 19, 2011 10:36 AM CST reply actions  

Seems to me the White Sox throw alot of changeups.

I don’t know if that is AJ or Cooper but Danks and Buehrle threw around 20% changeups last year. I agree Thorton should not throw that many. His bread and butter is his fastball.

I also heard the interview. He seemed to blame Pierre’s fielding problems on the weather. Cold and wind. Bah humbug.

by Rick B on Dec 19, 2011 10:45 AM CST reply actions  

i thought this part was interesting
It might be unpopular to say, but if these drugs really aid “tissue repair” and what not, it should be considered good for the game, not bad. One day, the stigma of PEDs will lessen and we’ll be encouraging our professional athletes — not punishing them — for trying to heal faster.

by obnoxious american on Dec 19, 2011 1:32 PM CST up reply actions  

it is reasonable, but i can understand the huge backlash against them just now.

in ten years or so, once all the cheats have been through the hall of fame ballot, we might be able to have a reasoned discussion about it.

by craigws on Dec 19, 2011 1:38 PM CST up reply actions  

unfortunately, the disconnect between usage of medical advancements is enormous. we should all be so lucky as to have access to the latest stuff.

but the majority of us are at the tail end of the adoption curve.

racehorses—AIDS patients(due to muscle wasting) and bodybuilders—elite athletes—rich people—the rest of us.

Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.

by MarketMaker on Dec 19, 2011 1:39 PM CST up reply actions  

well, yeah.

was highlighting the moral aspect of substance banning. should be it be that, a moral standard? is it legitimate for injury? is it disrespectful to the history of the game? is there an acceptable balance between it being cheating or medicine?

by obnoxious american on Dec 19, 2011 2:04 PM CST up reply actions  

the history of the game thing is what i always end up siding with.

but i don’t know. is it really not possible to have a legitimate medicinal use?

by obnoxious american on Dec 19, 2011 2:14 PM CST up reply actions  

as i said, it seems reasonable.

but that simply isn’t the case just now, and the likes of pettitte – who try to frame the fact that they cheated that way – can fuck right off.
i have no sympathy for any player that does it for any reason they give themselves.

by craigws on Dec 19, 2011 2:21 PM CST up reply actions  

i can't believe they let players wear helmets to the plate nowadays.

it’s ruining the moral fiber of the game.

Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.

by MarketMaker on Dec 19, 2011 2:21 PM CST up reply actions  

it's cheating.

Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.

by MarketMaker on Dec 19, 2011 2:29 PM CST up reply actions  

you guys are joking

but the armor on the elbow Bonds wore did bother me more than Balco.

by e-gus on Dec 19, 2011 4:17 PM CST up reply actions  

I added an update thanks to @harrypav.

A lot of Thornton’s changeups were sliders, but they were thrown much harder than usual.

by Jim Margalus on Dec 19, 2011 2:27 PM CST reply actions  

My prediction: "Whirling Darvish" will stick as his nickname.

Haven’t read it yet, but I’m sure it’s coming.

"People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage."

John Kenneth Galbraith

by Chiburb on Dec 19, 2011 6:03 PM CST reply actions  

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